Andrew Luck Makes His Long Awaited Card Debut

Andrew Luck is going to be the first pick of the draft, and as it stands right now, he could unseat one of the greatest ever as the starter for the Colts if everything goes as expected. Collectors obviously have a good understanding of the potential Luck displays, as his autographs and other memorabilia has been selling off the charts since the middle of last off season during the lockout.

Leaf, being the resourceful company that they are, has taken this perfect storm, and put a shot across the bow as the first company to produce a Luck card. Although they are commemorating his attendance at the All American game, and do not show him in any professional setting, the cards are definitely going to sell. Like they did back a few years ago with baseball prospects, they are offering the cards exclusively on eBay through their store, something which may be the perfect way to beat other companies to market. For some reason, most of the auctions were stopped midway through, which definitely warrants an explanation from Leaf. Im sure that is coming soon.

Until then, here are some of the highlights:

Andrew Luck Leaf Metal Superfractor

Andrew Luck Leaf Metal Red Refractor

Andrew Luck Leaf Metal Refractor

With Luck and other prospects’ first big name cards possibly being released as early as the next few months with Five Star and National Treasures, I think these cards will not come close to carrying the weight long term. However, as we always see, Football is a sport where collecting is contingent on instant gratification rather than waiting for things to cool down. Because these are the first of many Andrew Luck cards, they will definitely be sought after, until the next ones are released.

I would expect that these auctions are a sign that we might have a situation similar to Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in baseball. Luck will incite riots in just about every way when his first Colts cards are put into packs after the Premiere, and it wont be long before we finally get to see if he was the right choice as the next “cant miss” prospect in line.

Panini and Blake Griffin – What Could Have Been

I have said on a frequent basis that Basketball cards function so much on high end that it is almost stupid to go any other direction. It is something that Upper Deck did better than any other company, and something that Panini has generally not succeeded at.

The one product that has garnered some collectability is National Treasures, but its success has been mostly due to the rookies in the product, rather than the product’s merits on their own. Panini recently touted the sale of a Blake Griffin 1/1 logo auto that sold for a price that makes the Strasburg superfractor sale look like the dollar menu at McDonalds. Personally, I am not only unconvinced that the sale is legitimate, but also that they are even close to being considered the player that UD once was.

Here is the auction.

Blake Griffin is an anomaly that should fall under the same category as Strasburg, Harper, and eventually Andrew Luck. These overhyped prospects could eventually live up to billing, but its unlikely that they will produce at a level that would be on the same level as the values of their cards. Griffin plays into a wide array of fans that happen to identify with his high flying above the rim dunks, combined with the fact that he plays in Los Angeles, all of which have created the perfect storm.

Look at these ridiculous prices people are paying for Griffin’s higher end cards:

National Treasures Blake Griffin Auto Patch RC

Panini Classics Blake Griffin Auto RC BGS 10

Totally Certified Blake Griffin Auto Emrald /5

I have a feeling that Panini’s assessment of the global appeal of basketball has an effect on the overall prices, but I also think it has to do with the precedent that Upper Deck has set with the enormous success of products like Exquisite and SP Authentic. Panini has done little to nothing to show that the structure, content or design of their products is on a similar level to what it would be with Upper Deck running the show instead of Panini. Although Panini has hired a few of Upper Deck’s old people, their approach to the way products are conceived and produced is much different. I have always talked about how Panini will shun quality production methods in the interest of saving money, and as a result, they have cards that look like this.

However, because licensing dictates a lot of what is and will be successful in all the sports, Panini will not have any issue staying on top of the mountain. However, as we have started to see in football, patience continues to wain, and I forsee a need for someone to step in as competition, even if Beckett and their butt buddies at Panini both want to give each other high fives for the arbitrary values that are assigned to the awful looking cards.

2011 Panini Limited is Live – Falls Well Short of Previous Year’s Success

Limited is live as we speak, and personally I find it awfully intriguing that it is going up against the recent release of Topps Supreme. The format and prices of the products are relatively similar, though Limited does have a few advantages in both collector loyalty and on card autographs for a small portion of their checklist. Outside of those advantages, there are a multitude of shortcomings that Limited epically fails to capitalize on, and these failures will result in huge disappointment from even the most rabid Panini fans.

First off, the design work on Topps Supreme is so far above Limited, that the comparisons is akin to a Porsche and a beat up 1985 Impala that is missing one of its rear tires. Basically, there is no comparison at all. Yes, you are guaranteed an autograph in every box, but the level of professionalism displayed in the design of that autograph is less than that of a trained monkey. There are so many subsets in Limited that actually make me nauseous as to their design, that I wonder if they understand how much they are behind on the scoreboard. Its like the team that is down 35 points and still running the ball at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Both products are predominantly stickers in the overall umbrella of the content, but Topps Supreme is a home run in their execution of the stickers, where Panini and their white boxes are three pitch strike outs.

When you look back over limited’s cards from the past few years, I have no clue why the RAPs from 2009 were not used as a template for success. Awesome photographs, team logo diecuts, and nicely conceived and placed design elements. This year’s, like 2010, might as well be Triple Threads lite, with the tiny ass player pictures jailed in the corner of the card, while focus is put entirely on the swatches.

This is all added on top of the fact that a huge portion of Limited’s on card autographs are redemptions, as Panini obviously did not get their ducks in a row when planning out this product. Considering how many of their previous products had live hard signed autographs from guys who are redemptions in this product, is ultimately concerning. It also goes without saying that the average collector doesn’t give a wet fart in hell as to why the redemptions exist, just THAT they exist. When Supreme has everything live, give or take, it’s a further loss on a set I used to love.

Most importantly, both products have extreme issues with box content, as neither should cost what they do for what they deliver. Supreme costing 90 bucks without a guaranteed autograph is ludicrous. Limited, costing 100 bucks for a box filled with single jersey cards of players no one cares about is similarly ludicrous. In all seriousness, these boxes should not cost more than 60 bucks a piece, as prices for secondary value is dropping by the second. As collectors become more disenfranchised with this level of return for the price, companies will continue to see a drop off in new collectors.

Neither of these products are on the level of an awfully conceived product like Gold Standard, costing 200 dollars a box for the junk Panini put in it, but its getting to that point. I sense that there is a growing dissention over the lack of effort that Panini has put into their football products in the wake of licensing in other sports, and that is not a good thing. When NFL licensing is up for grabs again at the end of this year, its likely that Panini will remain on board as a result of their international reach. It is not clear whether Topps will be included, and that scares me to death. If I am left with junk like Limited, Certified and Gold Standard as the only option for purchase, im stopping the purchase of new products into my collection. Topps is the ONLY bright spot left in the NFL, and the ridiculous thing is, that wont factor into any part of this.

Rare Air: The Michael Jordan High End Debate

I love perusing the completed eBay auctions by highest price to see some of the ridiculous sales that do and do not take place. Over the last few months, Michael Jordan has become a frequent repeat offender of the highest completed sales, mainly in regards to rare jerseys, autographs, and inserts from the late 1990s. When I saw the most recent sale pop up, a gold embossed refractor graded BGS 9.5, I was literally shocked at the price.

Check out the ridiculous auction here.

Then, I started to read about some of the questions surrounding sales like these, mainly interested by the accusations that a small group of Michael Jordan collectors incestuously sell cards among themselves with the hope to increase the value of their own collections. Although there is nothing concrete, some of the evidence is piling up to show there is more than meets the eye. In fact, since the sale mentioned above, two other gold embossed refractors have popped up on eBay, one being sold by the accused party:

1997-98 Michael Jordan Finest Gold Embossed Refractor /74 BGS 9.5

1997-98 Michael Jordan Finest Gold Embossed Refractor /74 BGS 9

What I don’t think people understand is how few people actually know about where to even research a purchase as large as these are turning out to be. Obviously, if there is someone willing to pay the price of a Honda Accord for a Jordan card, they probably have money to burn. Regardless, to manipulate the market is unfair to everyone, as we all know that eBay completed auctions are gospel to many people out there. Its very difficult to ignore the fact that the same card that sold above went unsold at a much lower price a few weeks prior, and originally sold even further below that. Are we really to expect that the value of the card, for a player who’s accomplishments and life status will not change week to week, fluctuates at 150%? Even I am skeptical of that type of dynamic change.

According to the seller, the sale has already been completed, which begs the question of whether or not the sale was done solely to help one of the other gold embossed refractors along in its sale. In fact, there are further accusations that a ton of the more recent Jordan rare insert sales have gone this same direction. I am becoming more and more skeptical by the day, however, the guy who paid 20K for the Strasburg Superfractor was not a diehard collector in the slightest, so there is always a chance. We all know this has to happen all the time, and I am not surprised that it is happening with cards like this. I AM surprised that it isnt with more cards that dont cost as much as this one did. Only further evidence in sales will show the true nature of these transactions.

Here is the link to the discussion on Blowout.