At this point in the football side of the hobby, only one position carries value on a consistent basis – the Quarterbacks. When the 2013 Rookie Premiere list was announced today, its easy to see that there is going to be a black hole of value in boxes prior to the season starting. With only 1 QB drafted in the first round and the bigger QB prospects going in the 3rd and 4th round after that, this is not going to be easy until the rookie start to separate themselves on the field.
There are two things for this year that surprise me – the inclusion of 40 guys on the list compared to 35 last year, and the addition of some defensive players for the first time in a while. This is what usually happens when non skill players get invited:
2007 Joe Thomas Draft Day Ink Auto – Arguably the best left tackle in the game, no value.
2007 Darrelle Revis SP Authentic Auto – Arguably the most popular corner in the game, this is the MOST an auto will ever be worth.
2012 Jared Allen National Treasures Auto Patch – Same thing for Allen and his auto
Here is the thing, everyone already knows that there will always be questionable talent invited to the premiere, as later round skill players always take precedent over early round defense and non-skill. In fact, if you look back at the class from 2007, only a handful of the guys are still in the league, and Gaines Adams has even tragically passed away. The premiere is a talent crap shoot in the truest sense of the word, but my point is more to do with the strength of the overall class in tow.
In terms of the defensive players – Manti Teo, as I said when the preview list was leaked, should be going. His signature sells very well. Dion Jordan on the other hand, should not be invited. I was surprised to see how much he is selling for, which is probably why the decision was made> However, defensive linemen just dont sell at a sustained level at all, and that is being generous. They have to achieve ridiculous accomplishments, or their autos sell like this. I would have much rather had a 2 dollar auto in a skill player present over a two dollar auto of a lineman. At least the skill player is more likely to see production that many people in the hobby will assign value to their cards. See what happens in the case of a guy like Victor Cruz – an undrafted free agent.
Here is the final list, interested to hear what people think.