When comparing products, in the past, there has always been one thing that sets one apart from another in football. Because the sport was always second to baseball, the manufacturers always focused much less on the set construction. Thus, sticker autographs were everywhere in football, and hard signed cards became a treat. Collectors embraced hard signed cards by paying more for them on eBay, and the dichotomy of autograph content was born. This situation has been even more evident recently, with much more prevalent sticker autograph content across the board in the last five years. Unlike Topps and Upper Deck, Panini has never had the excuse to let things slide, because for the last few years, their main focus should have been their football product.

When Panini released Absolute for the first time with hard signed rookie cards, it was obvious the only reason for doing so. This reason was solely to keep up with Topps’ exemplary track record of Finest, Inception, Platinum, as well as their flagship base brand all featuring great looking hard signed content. With Chrome on the horizon, stocked with 75% on card auto content, it became obvious that Panini’s hand had been forced. The problem is though, choosing a poor design and a HUGELY overpriced box MSRP has driven down secondary market value more than I could have ever predicted.

Here is what I mean:

2011 Cam Newton Base Rookie Auto Jersey – Top pick, playing well, does not cover box price.

2011 Christian Ponder Base Rookie Auto Jersey – A top rookie, getting first start today, barely eclipses pack price.

2011 Andy Dalton Base Rookie Auto Jersey – Rookie QB who has played best of anyone, won a number of games. Still barely beats pack price.

Over the last five years, there has never been hard signed jersey cards at this point in the year. The people who actually still buy Panini should be clamoring for these cards, but the funny thing is, they arent. The best base rookie hard signed cards are not even eclipsing box prices, and that is a VERY bad situation.

For the first time, I actually believe overall design and lack of imagination is finally making a difference in how people buy. Usually, collectors will buy regardless of design, because look of the cards has proven historically to not factor in. However, now that the one distinguishing variable of hard signed versus sticker is trumped by lazy production and boredom over constant product underperformance, price is following suit.

Performance of the rookie class would normally factor in as well, however the rookies are playing very well this year – much to my surprise. The true test will be when the far superior and far cheaper set hits next Wednesday with chrome. Not only does it cost less than half of what Absolute does per box, the design is top notch work. Each Chrome card previewed, so far looks to be polished and professional, unlike 99% of Absolute’s crap.

Chrome’s secondary value of autographs from Cam Newton and company will outsell absolute if previous years hold true. This makes ABSOLUTE-LY no sense, as these jersey cards should carry a higher premium because of swatch inclusion. This is where my perfect storm comes into play. With beautiful cards, looking as good as they ever have, signed on card, Chrome will make Absolute look foolish. In fact, it hasnt hit shelves, and it already has.