I cant ever remember a situation like what we have with Colin Kaepernick. Usually when a new QB comes in and starts playing, its because the previous QB was playing terrible. Sometimes its because the team is playing terrible, and the QB isnt the only issue. Before Kaepernick took over, neither of these things were true. Alex Smith was having a pretty good season, but was shelved with a concussion for a couple of weeks. Collectors had even bought into his success before the concussion, which was significant. Since that time Kaepernick has gone on an absolute tear, and Smith remained on the bench.
Yesterday, a team led by a QB with only half a season of playing time under his belt, dominated a team that looked like they had a clear path to New Orleans. Kaepernick torched the Packers defense for an NFL record rushing yards and threw for 2 more. He did have pick returned for a TD early in the game, but was able to bounce back with a firestorm of great plays. As you can imagine, his cards have been on fire for the last few months, but that was nothing compared to where they are now.
2011 Topps Chrome Colin Kaepernick Superfractor Auto 1/1 – Do you really drop this type of cash on a guy like this?
The read option style of offense is the new Wildcat, and that is what people dont seem to understand. I dont think the read option is sustainable, because of the danger it puts the QB in every time it is run. We also have not had an offseason that allows defensive coordinators to adjust, and that should also pose a threat to its success. I think it will eventually come down to teams making a conscious decision to run this offense at the expense of their QB, and 5 year careers could be come more common. Kaepernick spent most of the game in the read-option, and I dont think there is a lot of evidence to whether or not he can be a drop back passer once defenses figure out his game. He looked pretty incredible last night, but I am interested to see what happens next year.
There is a significant difference between Kaepernick and other read option guys like Cam Newton, and that is his offensive line. Kaepernick was only sacked once or twice all game, and had A LOT of time to sit back and go through his progressions. That will make this challenge easier, no doubt about it. Collectors are going to latch onto his ridiculous performance during the 2nd half of the year, rather than rating his long term prospects under their own merit, independent of that production.
Newton had a historic run last year with his card values, only to see them plummet due to poor play this year. Defenses definitely adjusted, and the team wasnt committed to Newton being vulnerable on every play. As a drop back passer, Newton wasnt as successful. How long before other teams have similar results?
I think if you are holding his cards, sell while you can. This is not a trajectory that can continue, and the odds that he makes a run to the Super Bowl is fifty fifty. He will either go up against a tough Seattle defense or a potent Atlanta Falcons team, and his chances drop with each passing week. I have a feeling this is the best its going to be, barring a Super Bowl win, and I ALWAYS take bird in hand.
As for the buyers, you are too late. Sorry.
These players come along frequently, as we have started to see with Russell Wilson, RGIII and Cam Newton. We were starting to see the effects of the style of play, with Newton being neutralized and RGIII blowing out his knee, and its only a matter of time for most of these guys. It only takes one hit these days, and that is why the NFL and most teams are reverting to protecting their investments rather than putting them at extreme risk.