A Six Pack of Things To Watch For the End of 2010

Chrome is out, and collectors are loving it, but with the calendar now moving into the last half of the year, a lot of people are scratching their head and wondering where to go. In the past, the back end of the calendar was filled with blockbuster products that deliver the goods and the value for the year’s rookie class, but without Upper Deck driving their normal high to super high end products, that may not be the case anymore. So, with that, here are a few other things to watch for now that things have changed.

1. Sam Bradford’s value as the front runner for ROY

Because he is playing a position that most consider to be the toughest in the game, and because the Rams are already playing better than they did ALL of last year, Bradford is leading the pack for the top rookie award. If he continues to be the front runner, watch his value rise considerably higher than it already is. Don’t get me wrong, Bradford is playing quite well, but he isnt doing what Flacco and Ryan did in 2008, which makes his current value a little shocking. To think that this isnt the ceiling yet is kind of crazy, but it is probably just a representation of how weak the 2010 class really is.

2. Upper Deck and the entire 2010 NCAA Product release calendar

It has yet to be seen if Upper Deck is going to be able to compete the way they were expecting to, especially when football cards in general arent bringing in the big ooooo’s and aaaaah’s they used to. We have gotten previews for Ultimate and SPA, both of which look amazing, but it remains up in the air if the products will follow through on what they have proposed in the sell sheets. If Upper Deck puts out a competitive product, it will definitely raise a few eyebrows, especially some over at Panini who have yet to design a winner this year. If UD can compete without a license, what does that say for those that continually waste their ability to produce NFL cards?

3. The identity of 2010 National Treasures

Exquisite, at least as it pertains to its previous form, is gone. That leaves the door open for a big coup at the hands of 2010 National Treasures. If Panini comes out with a product similar to last year’s overpriced box of Donruss Threads, it will be a colossal failure in every sense of the word. If they can establish a worthy identity for the product as Exquisite was always so great at establishing, NT could be an instant favorite for POY. From what we have seen from Panini this year, its safe to say a bet on this actually happening would be like betting on the Pirates to win the world series next year. For our sake, I hope they get their shit together and put out a great NT product like in 2006, 2007 and 2008.

4. Topps “New and Improved” late calendar

Topps has introduced close to an entire year’s worth of new products in half a year. We have Prime, Tribute, Supreme, Unrivaled, among others, and they may not be done yet. In most cases, the new products offer little in terms of a departure from what we would get in a product like Triple Threads, and that has pissed off a lot of people. Myself included. To think that we could end up with five times the amount of booklet cards with lame ass cutouts, is scary, no doubt. So, we are going to need to watch how Topps does with the finished product to determine whether or not we have any reason to think that they deserve to be in the market in the first place.

5. Whether CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jimmy Clausen and Dez Bryant can turn it around

All four of these guys have played well below expectations. Although Spiller and Bryant have had some electrifying plays on special teams, they have not made the impact people expected them to. Jimmy Clausen has played like dogshit, if not only because of the quality of the Panthers offense, and that hasn’t sat well with collectors either. Ryan Mathews was projected as a first round fantasy pick, but has just 1 TD through 5 weeks with thanks to ailing Charger running game. If they can turn it around, you can bet that box prices and values may actually merit more of a good reaction.

6. Whether Retail Cards become more of a focus

We saw that with early releases of Topps Platinum and Topps Chrome, retail is slowly becoming as big of a focus, if not more of a focus than hobby. Although odds on autographs are much worse, the price and content comparison between Hobby and Retail is beginning to lend itself quite well to the collectors who buy their cards at places like Target. I think this will continue to change, even to the point where people like me will have to start making weekly trips to my local Wal Mart.

There will be more to add to this list as the year progresses, but I would say that we definitely are going to have a very different end to 2010 as compared to 2009. So much so that the two years share almost nothing in common. This could mean a big win for everyone, as change and variety have potential to be game breakers, but it may also prevent some of the fun that comes with familiarity and comfortability.

2 thoughts on “A Six Pack of Things To Watch For the End of 2010

  1. I’ve been thinking about the retail/hobby focus a lot. Maybe I’m just crazy but it seems to me that the seedings in Topps Chrome were all out of whack (people pulling TONS of refractors from retail and less than advertised from hobby), and coupled with the early retail release it has me wondering if Topps is trying to make the retail product more attractive to collectors who probably still think of retail blasters as “baby’s first box of cards.” It makes sense, right? Especially with Michael Eisner at the helm.

    For so long we’ve heard how the local card store drives the hobby but I don’t believe for a minute that Topps would hesitate to cut them out if it meant more packs in every Wal-Mart, Target and Toys R Us.

    I’ll end my conspiracy theorist rant now…

  2. Like Craig, I’ve also been thinking a lot about retail v. hobby lately. Not always having the money to fork over for a hobby box (not to mention the lack of good hobby shops in my area), I frequently rely on retail stores to check out the newest products. I have found something really interesting over the past two years regarding Topps products. The first shipment of cards to the stores are loaded with hits. I was able to pull several hits including 3 Strasburg RCs and a scrub auto from 4 Bownman rack packs during the first week of release. When I went back 3 weeks later, I bought 6 packs but did not get one good hit. I purchased 2 rack packs of A&G and received 1 mini bazooka back (/25). The blaster boxes for Allen & Ginter during the first several weeks were about one hit (relic or auto) per 2 blaster boxs. I had similar luck with 2010 heritage as well. The best hits thus far have been from Chrome, both baseball and football. I was able to pull a Strasburg RC and Ivan Nova AU from 2 baseball rack packs. I’ve bought 5 football rack packs and pulled a Montario Hardesty AU RC and a Rob Gronkowski AU Gold Relic (/10). I also had similar luck with 2009 Heritage high numbers. However, I think that Topps loading of hits into the first shipments of their products is limited to these types of sets. Having purchased many (more than I want to count) rack packs and blaster boxes of 2010 Topps baseball and football, I did not get anything good.

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