We havent seen a checklist yet, but as heard on Lucas Kinser’s interview on a recent podcast, if Panini has the ability to use them through their licensing contract, they will be in Prizm. I think there is some desire to see major legends and current superstars all over the product, but the main desire is to have them as base cards.
With that, one of the main questions I continue to get on Twitter is about value, specifically which wrestlers to target as Prizm hits the WWE market for the first time. As I have mentioned in the past, there is a tier list in play (see attached), and as long as you target the right tier for your budget, you shouldnt be disappointed at all.
Right now, as we lead up to the Prizm launch, there are a lot of things to consider as collectors with no experience in WWE cards flood the marketplace. I think it also goes without saying that some of these collectors wont have much experience with current TV, so that will impact things as well.
Note, the following are predictions, not set in stone. As this plays out, we could see things go a completely different direction. I may also be an idiot, which should be factored into everything.
HEAD OF THE TABLE TIER
#1 – The Rock
In terms of WWE cards there is no one bigger than the Rock, for obvious reasons. Not only is he the biggest movie star there is, but he had a long and illustrious career in WWE. Although the top versions of his current cards havent surfaced recently to get a gauge on true premium value, he is the top guy in this set. His golds and below will break 5 figures from the get go, and he is the jewel of this product.
#2 – Roman Reigns
The namesake of this tier, Roman Reigns has had some epic sales as of late. He owns the top spot as the top priced modern sale of all time, and also the #3 on that list now with the recent sale of his Finest superfractor. It might be controversial putting him here over Hogan, recency bias is a big deal to collectors.
#3 – Hulk Hogan
Im not a Hogan fan. At all. He is a controversial figure outside the ring for all the reasons that drive me nuts about American culture these days. Racism, covid politics, overall douchebaggery. Inside the ring, no one drew more money than he did. Collectors recognize that.
WWE CHAMPION TIER
#4 – Stone Cold Steve Austin
Austin is the reason Wrestling took off in the 1990s after a down period that almost killed the business. He has also NOT had a single Chrome type base card. He has had inserts, but not a base.
#5 – The Undertaker
The Deadman is going into the HOF, and is widely considered to be among the most important wrestlers in history.
#6 – Andre the Giant
Seeing recent sales of his Chrome cards shows me that modern collectors will appreciate him as much as vintage collectors.
#7 – Ultimate Warrior
Another controversial public figure post Wrestling, but Warrior has a gigantic amount of fans that will drive his value through the roof.
#8 – John Cena
For what he has accomplished, he should have the value of someone on the top tier. He has had longevity and a lot of cards, signs prolifically and it has all hurt his value due to dilution.
#9 – Bret Hart
Recently, many wrestlers have started talking about him as he potentially debuts for AEW. Will help him secure his value.
#10 – Shawn Michaels
Like Bret, Shawn has had a lot of focus lately as a top superstar of all time. Collectors will gravitate towards his cards.
#11 – Bron Breakker
People are going to freak out because I put him ahead of Savage, Flair and Lesnar, but I think Breaker is going to get some major value for his first wrestling cards there are. He is THE rookie to chase.
#12 – Randy Savage
Im putting him higher on this list than people would expect, only because he hasnt had a Chrome card in decades.
#13 – Ric Flair
Despite recent controversy, Flair is a top value guy if there ever was one.
#14 – Brock Lesnar
He is about to main event Wrestlemania for like the 1837th time. Lesnar is a huge deal in UFC as well. I think his cards do really well.
NUMBER ONE CONTENDER TIER
#15 – Alexa Bliss
If you know wrestling collectors, you know the value that Alexa Bliss has had.
#16 – Triple H
After an emotional announcement of his retirement the week before Mania, like most of the other people on this list, his time in the attitude era will define his value.
#17 – Becky Lynch
There is no woman featured on WWE TV like Becky is featured, and I should know how much her rare cards will drive value, especially with the first examples of her as Big Time Becks.
#18 – Eddie Guererro
Another superstar taken way too early in his life. He hasnt had many cards since his death, and I think his value will surprise people.
#19 – Charlotte Flair
There is no one more accomplished in WWE right now than Charlotte. She gets no respect because she is the equivalent of the female Roman Reigns from 2018-2020.
#20 – Sasha Banks
Like Charlotte, I do not think Sasha gets the respect she deserves in the grand scheme of things. She should.
NOT CONSIDERED
Ronda Rousey – Not sure she will have cards right away, but she would be among these names if she did.
Vince McMahon – I might add Vince to the top tier if he has base cards
Stephanie McMahon – She has had cards as recently as 2022, its possible she is included.
AEW licensed legends – I believe most of the guys like Jake Roberts and DDP might be left out.
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Obviously this is just my opinion, and I inevitably forgot someone that should be included in the top 8. Its hard to keep a running list of guys in your head, but these were the ones that I just thought should be there.
The hobby is a big place, and has become even bigger over the last few years. For many collectors, it can be difficult to stay on top of everything that will ensure you can participate in the ongoing day to day effectively. For Wrestling collectors, who are usually at an even bigger knowledge disadvantage when it comes to the greater hobby, I wanted to take some time to walk through some of the ways that Prizm exists, ways it has changed the way the hobby engages with a product, and most importantly what to expect over the next few weeks.
The Origin of the Prizm Product
As far back as 1993, Chrome stock cards have existed in the hobby. On the heels of Upper Deck’s creation of the first premium baseball product in 1989, Topps responded with a new technology that would change things forever. Topps Finest Baseball stormed onto the scene, and offered something that collectors had never been exposed to before – trading cards that that werent printed on a cardboard surface, but rather a layer of acetate familiar coating on top of a card stock back. This new “chromium” style coating was shinier than a foil cardstock, and had a much different feel as well. It looked even more premium than Upper Deck’s cards, and as expected collectors fell in love with it.
In the mid 1990s, Topps expanded the line for the first named chrome product, which continued what Finest was all about. Chrome became a new avenue for Topps to repurpose their flagship design in a new premium format, and add exceptional value for collectors focused on both set collecting and adding valuable pieces to their PC.
Over the next decades, Chrome and Finest became the standard-bearer for Topps, and as print runs grew, along side the new focus on autograph and relic content, Chrome remained a product that was free of those restraints. As Topps brought Bowman into the chrome generation, a new facet of the hobby grew out of the seeds planted in MLB licensed products to MiLB licensed draft focused products highlighting the farm systems of a team rather than the main major league rosters.
These sets were delivered to collectors as investors for the first time, offering a way to invest in a prospect the same way someone could invest in a startup business. A new area blossomed, becoming the primary driving force for baseball collecting, and starting a revolution in the other major sports as well. Chrome rookie cards were the thing every collector needed for their collection, and without that investor friendly area of the hobby existing, we might be looking at a very different industry today.
Fast forward to 2012, when Panini begins to formulate their 10 year plan that has shaped the boom in trading cards during the pandemic era. At the time, Panini had no flagship product the way that Topps had, and hadnt quite cracked the code on how to create new legacy products to drive their brand as they expand. Most of their product lines were ports from the days of DLP (Donruss, Leaf, Playoff), leading to some very stale releases. It was clear they needed something big.
With the launch of Prizm football in 2012, they thought they had figured it out. The problem was, it wasnt as good as Topps Chrome Football, which had defined the top rookie cards in the hobby ever since Upper Deck lost their NFL license in 2010. Chrome offered beautiful stock, recognizable parallels, on card autographs, and a familiar design. Prizm offered none of that. It was ugly, it was stickers, and it only had one parallel.
Over the next two years, Prizm football failed to make a true splash the way they had hoped, with most collectors HEAVILY leaning on Chrome Football to build their rookie investment portfolio. The thing is, that wasnt the case in the NBA. The 2012 Prizm launch in the NBA went over like gangbusters, as there was no Topps Chrome to compete with. By 2014, Prizm NBA was one of the most important sets of the year, while in the NFL floundered to match the impact Topps had cultivated. Sales numbers were likely performing at expectation, but secondary market values were not.
The Rise of Prizm
In 2015, Topps lost their NFL license leaving Prizm as the sole owner of the slot Panini had coveted for a few years. They also released their first version of Prizm that truly tried to recreate what Topps had been able to create with Chrome. Easy to digest bordered designs, easy to understand parallels, and full bleed photos over the cropped ones from years prior. For the 2016 season, Prizm was it.
The market reaction was huge, as the lack of competition opened doors never available prior. It was also a time where the NBA had taken off as well, behind the new autograph deals with Kobe Bryant and LeBron James’ success on the court. Big rookie classes spurred huge values that were never even considered possible in the years prior. All of a sudden, Panini had done what they set out to do – created a new legacy set.
Over the next few years, Prizm became the flagship standard for all sets across the hobby. By modeling other sets around Topps’ brand direction (Select as the new Finest, Spectra as the new Bowman Sterling, etc), the hobby couldnt get enough of this new way that Panini was operating in the hobby. Even more importantly, as new collectors were brought in by rising values across the board, Panini was now in control of two of the three biggest licenses available on the planet. Internationally, Prizm was already gaining traction as well, with World Cup prizm driving huge numbers for the first time ever.
The Importance of a Prizm Brand Launch
With the beginning of the boom happening as the world shut down to start 2020, Panini started looking for new areas that they could expand into new licensed brands. Niche brands like NASCAR, WNBA and UFC became huge targets for acquisition as the Panini juggernaut kept rolling. With each new launch, Prizm was the first of many sets to be released in each case, creating an expectation with collectors following along.
Because the hobby was on the verge of a historic explosion, Prizm’s impact grew to an insane degree. The collector favorite gold prizm parallels were regularly breaking records all over the place. High dollar six figure sales started happening in places that no one expected, as well. UFC Prizm was the first brand launch to happen directly in the post boom period, as the investor strategy reached a fever pitch across the world. Instead of struggling to catch on, the product exploded in value from day one, catching everyone by surprise.
For the first time, the loyal Prizm fanbois were following a brand rather than a sport. This was something that happened to a lesser degree with the launch of WNBA Prizm, with collectors buying into a sport that they had never really been familiar with. For the first time in hobby history, the reputation of a brand’s success was more important than a fanbase for the sport. WNBA was a failing offshoot supported directly by its brother league. WNBA yearly salaries were sometimes less than the amount the cards were selling for at the top end of the product.
With UFC, a sport with a gigantic and passionate fanbase, there was a merging of a desire to collect a sport with a desire to collect a brand. UFC collectors had been around for a few years before the launch, supported by Topps products that had started to catch on – albeit quite slowly. Out of nowhere, a sport that rarely offered 4 figure sales, was seeing 5 figure Prizm sales almost out of the chute. This wasnt unnoticed by the base of investors, especially as more expansions would be coming.
The Panini Launch into WWE
At the end of 2021, Panini announced they had acquired the exclusive license to produce WWE trading cards. Given that they had just had the gut shot of Fanatics’ entry into the trading card industry, taking two of their most valuable licenses away in 2026, Panini needed something to bank on. WWE was a hobby that had existed for almost half a century, and had exploded in popularity during the boom. The announcement that Prizm WWE would be coming, the launch of a new brand, the new expansion – collectors and investors salivated at the opportunity to see another chance to cash in the way they had with UFC. It was a perfect storm.
During the 2020 and 2021 rise of trading cards, Vintage WWE cards had a market built around high grade junk wax cards from the 80s and 90s heyday of popularity that wrestling had with American audiences. Stars like Hulk Hogan, Ric Flair, Andre the Giant, the Rock, and Steve Austin saw gigantic prices almost overnight for cards that were bargain bin examples a few years before.
Within a few months of the announcement, there were regular instances of record sales pertaining to the existing Topps Chrome cards, as well as some big prices on rare pieces from premium sets. It was clear that investors were showing up early to capitalize on what they saw previously with UFC, but also prepare themselves for the first brand to launch after the surprising performance of MMA in an underdeveloped marketplace.
The Price of Prizm Wax
The biggest point of contention within the existing WWE market is the huge growth in the expected product costs. Right now, the cost of WWE product available to the masses is $250 MSRP with Undisputed. Prizm has been marketed so far as high as 1000 per box, which has led to a huge level of shock from the market.
Most of it stems from a misunderstanding of what drives the price in a product like Prizm. Before, wax cost was an aggregation of the value of the hits, with the availability of those hits. If the autograph values were expensive on the secondary market, the box values would go up. For years and years, that relationship was a negative one. It was rare to see a readily available WWE autograph card approach the cost of a box, let alone multiples of a box. Box costs were cheap, so it was almost a moot point to approach value loss.
With Prizm, WWE collectors did and do not see how this correlation works out, nor have they had the experience with gambling aspect of high end premium wax. For a person that has existed in the wrestling bubble, paying a 1000 dollars and equating that to the value contained in the cards they pull, there is no possible way to grasp how their context fits that mold.
Instead, WWE collectors try to equate a possible loss in autograph hits with the extreme cost of a box. How can one pay so much and feel satisfied with a low quality hit. For people that have existed in the major sports since 2003-04, they know that super premium wax is a super premium gamble. There are few boxes that deliver close to value, and the scale of price is determined by the POTENTIAL to pull extremely valuable cards, not the box to box cost.
There is something else that most WWE collectors currently cannot grasp, and that is the fact that autographs are not the chase in Prizm. We have already seen Topps Chrome WWE color skyrocket in price as Panini collectors arrive to the party early. For Prizm, the draw is the color above all else, and even the most niche Prizm releases represent this fact holistically. More importantly, there are a plethora of cards coming that could potentially set the records everyone has been witnessing over the last few months. The rare parallels of top names will fetch five figures out of the gate, and as we have seen in UFC, will ascend the value spectrum over time. These cards are the tentpoles that drive the box price, not the content delivered in the random box an individual collector struggles to afford.
A High Stakes Game of Hot Potato?
Another common dig from existing collectors is that the investors wont have anyone to unload their wares to at the prices everyone is expecting. To be honest, I was shocked that this objection gained so much traction, especially after seeing the market for vintage WWE and recent modern WWE go ape shit. This is basic economics, supply and demand at its core. Right now, thanks to the history of the brand, there is a wave of people expected to follow the Prizm name where ever that license expands.
Ive said this on a few podcasts at this point, but the cards that are expected to make up this product’s top level will never be targeted at anyone who has been a part of the modern WWE market to this point. The investors will not look to current collectors to capitalize on equity growth that takes place. They will be looking to other investors or new entrants into the HODL market that is created with each Prizm launch.
If the current market, every single one of them, disappears when Prizm launches, the top and intermediate pieces in Prizm that drive the box price, will be unaffected. Not a single value will be impacted long term either. The only thing that will see negative influence will be the low end pieces of the set checklist that are undesirable to an investment crowd. As we have seen in other sports, people rarely buy boxes for those cards at this level. The scale is irrelevant.
Product Engagement
Current WWE collectors are likely feeling the squeeze already across the board. Prices are already high. 2014 and 2015 Chrome wax is close to 800% higher in price than they were a year ago. 2020 and 2021 Chrome and Finest wax is approaching 200% growth. 2021 Undisputed opened for pre-order almost 35% higher than it did the previous years on the market. If its desirable, its more expensive right now as a rule. If its desirable and rare, its factors of x in growth numbers.
This leaves a lot of current collectors feeling like they are on the outside looking in, which is likely the case if they expect to buy whole hobby boxes of product. Even more so if that product is Prizm. The good thing here is that there are multiple configurations for most products, including retail. Additionally, for the first time ever, all group breakers will provide previously unavailable access to product in a compartmentalized manner.
Collectors have brought group breaks to the forefront of wax consumption across all areas of the hobby to combat increasing wax costs since 2009. Most group breakers who will provide WWE breaks will operate their breaks as their sole manner of income. That means professional setups, professional shipping, and lots of help to ensure quick fulfillment.
Singles Engagement
Another misconception is the way the prices will increase in all tiers of the singles market. If we look at the way the boom has perpetuated high sales across hobby, there are still a ton of very affordable cards. Going back to the economics of the matter, the demand for low tier contributors or less desirable targets for investors will be significantly lower.
Just like Lebron James has a VASTLY different price than a bit player on another team, the Rock and Roman Reigns will have a VASTLY different price than someone like Tomasso Ciampa or LA Knight. Not saying those people arent fun to watch, but they are on a different tier.
If your collection depends on the top tiers of the wrestling world to have meaning, life is going to get very difficult until the hobby landscape changes. That’s just reality. If you collection is Xavier Woods, I would say that this whole thing might be something you can handle depending on your budget. Certain cards might be out of reach due to the overall demand for rare Prizm parallels regardless of subject, but most other cards will not be impacted. As we get into later product releases in Panini’s calendar, this will only get more and more evident.
Everyone just needs to understand that prices will go up, just some areas will see much more of a drastic difference than others.
Grading WWE cards
Over the last two years, graded cards have become the vehicle in which value accelerators reach their peak. I do not support the grading business, I do not subscribe to the need to provide a hyper mint evaluation to achieve top value, and I have never done so. However, 99% of the hobby does not agree with me – ESPECIALLY the people about to flood the WWE market.
As Prizm takes off, the level of desire to trade in graded cards will skyrocket. Collectors will not be able to achieve the value they desire without using a grading business partner to evaluate the condition of their item. Achieving “Gem” status or the top level of the grading spectrum is preferred across all avenues, but even big cards will still hold tremendous value without that result.
In the current market, PSA’s place is unquestioned at the top of the mountain, and their pricing reflects that fact. Population reports, investment apps, and speculators will start to make investment decisions based on what they see in the early stages of the market as well, which could lead to a lot of surprises.
If you are unfamiliar with the way graded cards have impacted the major sports, its time to search google and get a crash course. Its also time to start looking at subscriptions to apps like CardLadder and the like to get trending as you start to buy.
The Importance of WWE Rookie Cards
As I close out this guide, I want to drive at something that hasnt really been a factor in WWE until recently. Rookie cards above all else, have seen a massive increase in importance as the hobby has taken off. People love firsts, and a player’s or wrestler’s first card will always be more important than any other card they have. Rookies will play a part in Prizm from what we saw from their preview, with Bron Breakker, leading the charge.
I mentioned earlier that Topps started this craze with Bowman back in the 1990s, and this set will feature a piece of that ultimate result. Collectors and investors alike will want to chase down the rookies they see as the subjects with the top potential to be a long term success, and their prices will reflect value we have never seen before in this area of things.
Conclusions
Ive seen a lot of talk that this type of experience has ruined a fun hobby. I dont agree with that at all. As someone who has seen people of all wealth ranges have fun collecting as the boom has happened, I can verify that money and participation do not necessarily run hand in hand. Everyone can find ways to stay engaged, and a large release calendar will offer tons of opportunities for all types of collectors to participate.
Prizm is just one product and it happens to be the on that most people base their experience on. That’s what flagship products are meant to do. Other super premium products will come with higher price tags, but because they arent the flagship set, they dont have the same negative reaction that this always has.
Its also worth mentioning that the general bitterness over rising costs is not new nor unexpected. Its unfortunate, but it is inevitable. Across every collectible marketplace in the world, values are increasing hand over fist. This is the result of economic changes like government subsidized stimulus, increases in disposable income due to lack of places to spend it on during the pandemic, and general desire for people around the world to feel better about their lives in the face of overwhelming depression. Cards have also shown to be better investments long term than the stock market, so it makes sense that a lot of people would shift their focus.
Overall – there are so many ways to continue having fun. Dont let this be the death blow to your experience in the hobby.
There are things happening in this hobby every day that defy everything we have come to understand about cards. Million dollar sales that used to be reserved for the T206 Wagner are now happening regularly. A card isnt important until it can sell for six figures. Oh, and some of the biggest celebrities on the planet are getting involved with ripping wax.
Famous people have been around the hobby through the boom period, with Kevin Durant, Deshaun Watson, and Logan Paul all being big names making news. Most of their involvement has been around picking up being pieces for their investment portfolio, including a seven figure scam that cost Logan Paul over a million dollars a few months back. Gary Vaynerchuck and Steve Aoki are both very well known in their own ventures with cards, including some special sets created with their input.
You will notice that none of these explanations include getting down and dirty with ripping wax, and that’s where Drake comes into play. I dont even need to explain who Drake is, because for most of us, he is someone that is famous enough to transcend a lot of age related boundaries. Well something has awakened within him a need to get into Flawless NBA like nothing we have ever seen. For most collectors, buying high end product and singles has become a way of life, but there is always a limit. There is always that risk that at some point we cant spend any more money. Drake does not have that limit.
Even more than that, Drake seems to be content ripping product to get what he wants, something that was never a factor for other investor types. His desire seems to be driven by the triple logo cards that Flawless is offering this year, cards that have brought about gigantic bounties for the top names in the set. If you have been around for a while, its easy to see why this is the focus, as the Exquisite versions are usually some of the most valuable cards in the hobby. It has taken Panini over a decade to figure out that it was time to make their own, and they are attracting attention rarely reserved for trading cards.
Drake has been a gigantic NBA fan for his entire time on the world’s stage, being at the forefront of Toronto’s NBA title run, and other aspects of the league. Being that Im not a huge basketball nut, my understanding has only been passive. The fact that I still understand all this to be true is a testament to his level of celebrity.
As a result of Drake’s entry into the Flawless marketplace, the entire market has changed. Flawless boxes and cases are up quite a bit in price, breakers are trying to attract his attention with slates of premium breaks, and collectors are falling over each other to get into streams and breaks where he is participating. Because he has hundreds of millions of social media followers, his attention is as important to a social media influencer as the actual breaks are to the breakers. Recently, Layton Sports and Blez Brothers announced a ridiculous 25 case break of Flawless, with slots costing around $40k. The goal was to capitalize and ride the lightning of this new attention, and they succeeded in selling out all the slots. That’s what happens when true fame and fortune enter the conversation.
As expected, not everyone is all about this new wave of investormania to begin with, and Drake only fuels more eye rolls and talk of how this house is built on an unsteady foundation. To a degree these nay-sayers arent wrong, the speculative bubble that is driving cards has already deflated a bit leading into the beginning of 2022, especially as PSA clears their backlog and floods the market with copious amounts of high grade slabs.
Personally, I love sitting back and watching all of this unfold. I never expected someone like this to work the way Drake has, and I fully expect it to be short lived unless he decides he enjoys the constant tags and pandering. So far, there arent many products out there that offer this kind of chase, but that doesnt mean they dont exist in an availability that can be exploited. Old cases of National Treasures, Prizm and the like are still out there in huge quantities, because Panini ran the presses overtime leading up to the boom. If he really wants to get in, he can. When you have no limit to your budget, its easy to get what you want.
When this all started, I equated the meteoric rise to the lockdowns and the lack of places to spend one’s disposable income. I figured that when we were able to resume more of a normal life, that the bottom 75% of the club would see things drop a bit back to normal. What I didnt expect was groups of celebrities with true influence to see the potential and be a catalyst to interest from the mainstream public. Most of those celebrities existed in a bubble, investing in very specific things with a very specific desired outcome. Drake is a very public celebrity doing things that very public celebrities dont usually do publicly – throw an obscene amount of money around in a space that is basically gambling.
This is where the market can shift, and stay shifted, as their influence really drives popular culture. Popular culture drives society in so many ways I cant even put it into focus as it pertains to this situation. Drake is undoubtedly showing this excess laden chase to people who didnt know it existed. People with A LOT of money. Other celebs. Fans. Investors. His level of fame touches all the areas that cards rarely have access to unless you are looking for it. There are arguments to be made that it wont matter long term, valid ones at that. This is one of those things that can change a market in a day though – for good or for worse.
I think there is a good chance that you are reading this and asking yourself, “wait, they make wrestling cards?” Not only have wrestling cards been steadily produced with a vibrant (but small) community for decades, but recent sales are turning heads in ways that were previously only reserved for major sports cards.
Given that wrestling’s popularity has drastically declined since the late 1990s, its likely similarly surprising that like UFC, Soccer, and other niche sports, WWE cards have exploded in value recently. I want to go through some of the main factors going into this spike, as it is a bit different than previous factors that impacted the trading card boom over the last few years.
Panini’s License Acquisition
Ever since that time, when you could walk around a shopping mall and see Austin 3:16 and Degeneration X shirts scrawled on people’s chests, Topps has been the main manufacturer in line with WWE. Prior to that, there were some smaller sets produced by promoters who thought it would be fun to offer cards at events or through the magazines that informed people about what was happening around the country. Those vintage sets have set the world on fire with big sales of the major names, which was surprising in its own right. That boom really didnt spread to WWE until Panini’s announcement a few months ago that they would be taking over the license from Topps.
Panini’s announcement and subsequent Prizm release accomplishes a few thing in spurring a market. It brings a history of brand launches that have blown the doors off of expectations, and it also brings a crowd that will buy on speculation this will take place. Similar to Topps owning WWE, UFC was also a major brand that they had produced cards for a long time. Like WWE is doing now, UFC prices went into overdrive on older wax, and produced some record sales of big cards.
The reason why this happens is two fold. First, Prizm has become the default flagship product for the trading card boom over the last 3 years. This has spurred a huge speculative interest in any release with Prizm as the focus, especially with 1st product releases. The hobby loves rookie cards, so buying out the inaugural product run of a product shouldnt be a surprise tactic.
Secondly, there is a growing audience of collectors who are looking for the edge in making money, and Panini products is what they know. For the time where they have been a part of the hobby, in most cases, Panini was the only game in town for the two biggest high end sports. That spurred an entire generation of hobby participants that saw Panini’s participation as the most important manufacturer. Announcing a new addition to that portfolio of brands is something that creates a wave, and we have already started to see the impacts of early adopters driving up wax and singles prices across the hobby.
The first batch of Prizm boxes were listed at 700 dollars for WWE, and sold out almost immediately. Blowout listed their pre-order at 900 and its already getting low. To think the box price will be anywhere close to this by this time next year is a pipe dream. Its insanely expensive already, but this is just the beginning thanks to the factors in this post.
A Small Universe with a Small Amount of Cards
To this point, WWE is one of the smaller niche parts of the hobby. Historically Topps has printed products to order, so a small engagement from dealers and collectors meant that smaller runs were produced. When a wave of demand comes to a market with a comparatively small supply, crazy things happen. We have seen what are seen as common cards go for insane prices, only because there just arent a lot of WWE heavy hitters to satisfy a crowd that feeds only on the most premium examples.
Lack of product isnt the only thing that will create a feeding frenzy in WWE. Unlike UFC, the wrestling hobby had been around forever. Loyal collectors, myself included, spent hours and hours combing facebook groups, ebay and other places to find cards for our designated PCs. Most of these PCs were built at the fraction of a price it would take to build a similar example in another sport, so the money isnt as much of a factor.
Therefore, when Roman Reigns, the Rock, Steve Austin and the like are seeing record prices, there wont be a lot of people who are going to dig out their PC to list on eBay. The choice to suffocate the supply is one that many wrestling collectors will happily make, because this was never about acquiring wealth when they started their journey. Right now, I have a shelf and three cases worth of premium Becky Lynch cards – and it will take life changing money to pry them from my hands.
Most collectors will have a ceiling to which they will stay involved, but there is a reason why they wont sell for anything less than a windfall. For most, Wrestling is the only thing they collect. Liquidating a collection without the ability to re-enter the hobby is a tough proposition for people to understand. Decades worth of work might be worth a lot of money, but it will remove most of the participation they have had to this point as well. Im not ready for that, and I know a number of others arent either.
As a direct correlation, this mentality can spur some enormous sales. If a desirable card hits eBay and checks the right boxes, there are hungry new entrants to WWE cards and investors that will snatch them up. Quickly. This brings me to the next point.
Wrestling is FUCKING INEXPENSIVE!
As of now, the top modern sale of a WWE card is $15k. Lets be honest, that is peanuts compared to sales we see DAILY in other parts of the hobby. For many investors, a card isnt even important until it can clear six figures, or is available enough in a high grade that it can result in 5 figure growth in a lot sale format.
Right now, spending a couple thousand on wrestling card isnt on that radar, but for some, its not even a thought, considering what they spend to maintain their portfolio in the NBA or the NFL. Baseball has also seen significant growth in the hobby, and a once low end sport can churn out five figure cards on the regular now.
Because Wrestling has no comparative equity in value to the major sports, its easy to change an entire market with a small investment. If I wanted to change the NBA market, I would need millions to spend. If I want to change the WWE market in a day, I could do it with 100k. Thats just crazy. Spend six figures on a market wide spread, and everything would be worth 5x in minutes. Not only is it concerning that the FOMO is such a dependency to creating value in anything collectible, but it is scary that someone with funds could do it overnight in WWE ahead of the Prizm release.
Wrestling has yet to produce a six figure card, but I have a feeling that day isnt far off. The Rock is the biggest movie star in the world, and his Prizm Black 1/1 is coming shortly. Im not saying its a 100k card off the bat, but its not out of the realm of consideration that someone could pull that trigger.
A Global Audience
The best thing about WWE is that the audience is gigantic. They have more social media followers than the four major sports combined, and are regularly among the top social media producers on the planet. Even though their TV audiences have shrunk, nothing else has. There are more people engaging with WWE content now than in the history of the company. This is because they have an enormous platform across multiple global regions, all of whom are expected to engage with products and marketing from the company.
If you think about that audience, its similar to what the NBA has tried to cultivate. Like the NBA, Wrestling is deep rooted in Asia with almost a century worth of Pro-wrestling related history. Newer markets like India and the Middle East are in the same growth pattern. UK and eastern Europe all have long histories with the industry. All of that made NBA the most premium brand in sports cards, and it could do the same for WWE.
I help run one of the largest wrestling card facebook groups there is, and international collectors were always a minority. We are now getting up to 25 new members per day, and a growing majority of those collectors are from overseas.
All of this will create global demand for product that isnt there currently. Panini’s global reach far extends that of Topps and we are already seeing the interest now as a result.
Overall, we like to think that we have the inside track on where to spend our precious funds, but I dont think there is any denying that Wrestling cards are going bananas for a reason right now, and none of that is going to stop soon.
I want to attempt at writing a post on the subject of growth and decline in the hobby, but I want to preface this with saying that this is a bit out of my depth. I havent really had a lot of experience with studying the card market and its fluctuations, but I think I have a number of questions, and some baseline ideas around market manipulation that bear some discussion.
Last week, CardLadder introduced the concept of “Verified Sales” on the heels of a few trends they were seeing the market. In one such egregious example, the sales of Patrick Mahomes’ Prizm RC had been manipulated 16 out of 20 times. Only 4 sales of the card in recent months had been legitimate, and they ended on average around $1500 less than the shilled sales. Going back to my post from a few weeks ago, should we or can we trust what is going on right now with certain market growth trends?
Lets go back a ways to see how specific tactics have influenced things in the past, because – AND I KNOW YOU WONT BE SHOCKED TO HEAR – this has happened many times before the boom even began. Market manipulation has happened so frequently that I would guess a feature length documentary wouldnt be enough time to cover this subject.
The first time this really made national news was back when PSA first started their card grading service. A trimmed Honus Wagner was sold as authentic, and did so for a record price. Because the card was already rare and valuable, it kick started a number of sales around Wagner that still stand up today. The people involved in this scandal have long been outed and books written, etc. Even though the source of this market growth was based on an altered card, the prices never went back to where they were before. In fact, if that card sold today, even in an altered state, the price would exceed its original market making example. That is the issue here, and it happens in art, it happens in comic books, and it happens in any industry where collectibles and money are involved. All it takes is a few dominoes to fall, and then the FOMO kicks in.
Funny enough, there were a few collectors that tried to manipulate a market after seeing how easy it was, and were oddly successful at accomplishing their goal. Back around the time that the hobby really started kicking into high gear, a few Michael Jordan collectors decided they wanted to create some growth in a number of cards that they felt were undervalued. They included some rarer high grade inserts from the late 90s and early 2000s, and started selling within their group at record prices. These sales were so far above the norm, that collectors on Blowout’s message board immediately started questioning the legitimacy of the sales. Because the supply of these cards were so small, and the market was a fraction of what it is now, it only took a few sales to change people’s perception of how much these cards were worth. Most people would expect the prices to go back to their expected value, but they didnt – those specific rare inserts remained more valuable than other similar Jordan examples from that era, just because of the manipulated sales that helped to create extra value.
Seeing what we have seen across multiple areas of the hobby over multiple eras, it brings a number of things in scope for questionable practices. Whether it is something with an absolutely tiny market like Vintage wrestling had, or something larger like what has gone down with graded Marvel cards and any of the Precious Metal Gem cards . It wont be long before a six figure sale goes down in those niche markets, and we could eventually see an eight figure sale go down in PMGs. Where does that growth come from? Where does it start? In some cases, its the already expensive pieces getting exponentially more expensive, but in the case WWE and Marvel, it seemed to come out of NOWHERE. Even more problematic is how few people owned the majority of the now high valued assets.
Seeing Cardladder try to curb market manipulation is a bold step, and one that has been needed FOR YEARS. At the same time, CardLadder is a premium service that isnt as widely used as the sold auctions listing page on eBay. Being that CardLadder was just acquired by PSA’s parent company, there are automatically conflicts of interest involved in the display of investment data for graded cards that are sold by their backer.
Shilling and manipulating auctions to achieve a higher price isnt a new thing, and it isnt one that will stop because its so easy to accomplish – especially for a highly desirable piece. Consignment shops like PWCC and Probstein have faced constant barrages of accusations, to a point where PWCC was banned from eBay’s platform all together. Obviously it hasnt stopped their success, launching their own platform where the rules are enforced by the accused, but I digress.
Honestly, I dont know what Im trying to get out of posting my thoughts here, other than venting frustration that people seem to be gleefully participating in a market worth billions, yet have no accountability to the obvious need for regulation. The biggest players in the hobby freely operate in a manner that suggest gross abuse is possible and present, and have yet to be held accountable for any of those conflicts of interest the way that the video game industry has to a significant degree recently.
Because the auction houses, the grading companies, and the dealers all have very public and very dependent relationships, there are huge issues with using any data from those platforms in a way that makes sense. We can hope that the sales data gleaned from their pages is legit, but there are too many examples of wrongdoing to ignore. So many federal indictments later, and we are just expected to roll over and say, “Sure! I fully accept all this at face value.” Personally, thats quite a stretch for me. The hobby is made up of a number of good people, but underneath that surface is a cesspool of criminal activities insulated by willing ignorance from the public. Sometime soon, I have a feeling that someone will need to pay for their mistakes, and it wont be the people that should be on that hot seat. I mean, that’s what always happens, right?
