Yesterday I wrote about the consolidation path that was outlined across a few different pieces published in the Wall Street Journal and CNBC. Across those pieces, the industry was clued into the first list of priorities that are on the radar for Fanatics as they prepare their industrywide takeover in 2026.

To compliment the articles, Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin was a guest on CNBC to detail their recent Series A investment and $10.4B valuation.

During the video, there were a few interesting points that he seemed to be very up front about, and I want to take some time to offer some reaction and temper some assumptions based on what has been shared.

Major Question: Will this license exclusive across MLB, NFL, and NBA be reminiscent of what we have seen in the past exclusives from Panini, Topps or Upper Deck?

Rubin’s Explanation seems to be pretty explicit – these licenses are just a small piece of the puzzle, which I discussed in detail in the previous post. Its clear that he sees the creation of his new business as an opportunity to revolutionize the industry in a way that has never been attempted. Collectors to this point have had a predictable reaction of fear and anxiety, but also one of limited scope. Most collectors dont seem to understand the scope or scale of what is going to be happening here. Fanatics is about to become a world leader in collectibles and sports memorabilia, having already been a world leader in fan apparel. This isnt just about trading cards, this is about a creation of a new giant entity in our world that will permeate almost every area of our collecting consciousness. Looking at this approach with only trading cards in mind is like looking at Microsoft only from the context of Outlook Email.

Major Question: What happens if this fails?!?

Again, scope and scale. This isnt like we are looking at a tiny company making waves in an ocean. Fanatics seems to be positioning themselves with huge amounts of investors and league support to make this a long term success. The approach might be simple, but the execution is complex, just as it was for the last inflection point back with the creation of Panini America. Bottom line, looking at this not being successful is not only short sighted, but unaware of the general context of how they are going about this whole plan. First, they have 4+ years to get ready, which is a lifetime in business. More importantly, they have league support in equity and influence that is almost a guarantee that they will be able to do things that Topps and Panini could have only dreamed of. They are also going to be exploring more channels that break the decades old methods that almost suffocated the industry after the 1990’s collectible boom faded. Although I am not advocating that people give this a chance, what I am saying is that the current trading card market is only part of their success plan. That means that parts of this whole could fall flat on its face and it wouldnt sink the whole ship.

Bottom line, this isnt a discussion about whether or not Fanatics’ card products are going to sell as well as a comparable product from Topps or Panini. Although that’s a long term measurement metric of ongoing success, its one with too limited a representation of how Fanatics will integrate themselves into this industry at a core level. I dont think anyone is expecting that the first ever Fanatics Flagship MLB product will sell like Topps Series One out of the gate. I think that with the support of the league and the new channels they will explore, the measure of success will be far different than just the secondary market price of specific box, single or case.

Major Question: How will the industry change?

I expect wholesale changes by 2026 that will be implemented in pieces between now and then. The $350M in Series A funding looks to be set aside for startup costs, and it looks like they have a number of other investors in line. Although the average joe collector sees this as an apocalypse on the horizon, many investors are seeing this as a gigantic opportunity in one of the hottest goods available now. My take is pretty simple – if there are people out there who are involved in some sort of trading card business venture or adjacent service, they have the next few years to solidify their investments to sustain their existence when this eventually is executed in full. Although the wholesale changes might not sink everyone, its going to sink a number of people. Some bigger than others.

Scale is really the main thing here, because the main impacted parties will likely be the distributors and group breakers who rely on scale to make their operations work. If Fanatics removes that element from the supply line, some will adapt and survive, countless others will not. I read somewhere that the number of group breakers operating online and on Facebook has increased ten fold over the last two years. Not all of those people will have the access they once had, or the scale available they once had.

Rubin spent some of the interview outlining the priority around direct to consumer sales, which for decades in this industry was an afterthought. Manufacturers have started experimenting, but their ongoing dependence on distributors and shops to move product meant that they were limited in their ambition. Fanatics is clearly not taking that approach, and rightfully so. Retailers like Amazon and eBay will undoubtedly be looking for clarity on their potential role in the retail space, and it may be that Fanatics decides to move more of their sales to a digital format or an online storefront that provides complete access to more collectors and casual fans.

Similarly, when considering the adjacent businesses like Grading and Storage, those things may not change immediately, but its clear that everything is going to be different eventually.

Major Question: Should we support these new overlords?

Here is the thing. Its up to you, just like it always has been.

Right now a lot of people are complaining that prices are too high and the hobby has shifted to a point where they cant participate any longer. For those people, I would expect that this could be the breath of fresh air to get back involved. For others that operate on a premium plane or in an investment based experience, this will undoubtedly impact the way they participate. The good thing is, its not like all the old stuff just disappears. None of that stuff will automatically become worthless because there is a new game in town. The same fears were in place in 2010, and were generally proven to be incorrect.

I personally have no dog in this fight any longer, as I have sold every major sports trading card in my collection. I just find this whole situation fascinating to an exceptional degree. I feel as though I have become a student of the industry side of this hobby for the last 15 years, and it has given me a different perspective than collectors who are scared about the purchases they have made for their collection. Will your 50 year run of completing the annual Topps set be over? Absolutely – in 2026 it will be, unless Fanatics decides to purchase the IP. Will the enjoyment of your collection diminish because that yearly venture is no longer available? I dont think so, but its on you.

Fanatics is a business coming in with a fresh slate and one that I want to see in practice. I dont have any investment to want it to be successful or unsuccessful, but as an observer, it is a lot of fun to watch it play out. Advocating for change is something I have done since 2008, and for the first time ever, we are getting it across the board.

Ive done quite a bit of writing over the last few months pertaining to the enormous shift that is going to happen in this industry over the next few years. Fanatics is taking the world by storm, and with a recent CNBC and WSJ article outlining some of what sources are telling them is going to happen, we are in for an adventure.

Here is a quick blurb from the CNBC article that highlights some of the consolidation that Fanatics is looking to undertake:

In addition, the article in the WSJ outlined new series funding that Fanatics has secured to bankroll their new division, as well as add to the war chest of resources and support they were already in possession of, or planning to acquire. If I had to guess, the next five years will be the time used to build a foundation across the industry that will turn its current existence up side down.

If you are unfamiliar with the landscape, here is how I break it down.

1. Production – Actually producing the cards. Building sets, art, content. Packing out the goods.
2. Distribution – getting the product into the hands of other parties, either wholesalers, shops or collectors
3. Retail – the actual sale of the cards at a point of service, either online, in person, or through a partner
4. Marketplace – Resale of singles, wax, or products
5. Grading – self explanatory
6. Breaking – The community of group breakers
7. Storage – I wouldnt normally add this, but COMC has shown how big of a business this can be

That means there are give or take 8 sections of the industry, all with established businesses to service that portion that will need to be consolidated. This doesnt mean that Fanatics is going to wipe these businesses off the face of the earth, but if there is exclusivity in building infrastructure around their main competitive advantages, its going to be hard to operate as a third party adjacent business.

Production

Believe it or not, this is likely the main challenge that Fanatics is going to face, especially considering the size and scale of what they are taking over. Panini, Topps and UD put out HUNDREDS of products each year, and it should be expected that Fanatics isnt going to walk back their participation, especially if the licenses come with a minimum guarantee the way that previous ones did.

That means that they will need to source, complete and produce a lot of sets from scratch, or purchase intellectual property to help facilitate that. To produce a set you need ideas, art, memorabilia, signatures, and the actual card making materials. Im thinking that Fanatics maybe has some ideas, but im not sure how much scale they have in the other areas.

Because production is as much about the people as anything, I would expect a hiring spree over the next year or so to bolster their division. Digital artists to create the designs based on the ideas from the product/brand managers. If they were ambitious, they could try to build unique products for all three sports, but I doubt that is going to happen at first.

When Upper Deck lost pretty much everything back in the 2009 / 2010 timeframe, Panini and Topps went and scooped up a lot of their best talent. Most of whom are still with the companies today. To think that wont happen again with Fanatics is naïve, but they might want to go a different direction.

Lets say they decide its best to just pick up a company as a whole, as its easier to start with a whole car instead of trying to buy all the parts individually and build your own hot rod. Upper Deck and Topps seem to be the most likely targets as they have more attractive IP for the cost it would take to acquire it. Sure they can go after Panini America, but their umbrella organization seems to be more intent in keeping that division open. Topps and UD seem to be more built around their brands, with Bowman, Exquisite and SP Authentic being some of the most valuable product IP in the industry. Upper Deck also has exclusives with LeBron James and Michael Jordan, both of whom havent had autographed cards in an NBA uniform during the past 10 years. Upper Deck is a much smaller operation, and likely ten times cheaper to acquire, thus making me lean that direction. The exclusive player licenses alone could be a game changer if they are transferrable with the sale of the company.

Outside of actually making the sets, they need to get the cards built, which I have no idea about, so Ill have to skip over that. Those resources are finite, and if I am Panini, Im working on exclusives with as many of those people as possible to lock out the team coming in.

Then it moves onto signatures and memorabilia. Given that Fanatics will have unprecedented access to the leagues, the memorabilia for current athletes will likely be a non issue. Especially now that Panini has made it wholly acceptable to use non-game worn materials in the cards. Panini literally tore down the one barrier to entry out of necessity and now Fanatics can walk right through that door.

Autograph deals are something Fanatics already has in place, and the PA licenses will make it very easy to get more. This might be the one area they can do better than any other company out there, especially if they have access to new players that were tied up in exclusives before.

Distribution

Lets start with the way things are set up now. You have a manufacturer who is building the products, distributors like GTS, Peach State and Southern Hobby that buy the products from the manufacturers and resell them at a higher cost to shops, and then retailers who sell those boxes to consumers. Over the last 10 years, the direct to consumer lane has opened up, as has group breaking, but ill get there in a second.

Right now, Fanatics is a global retailer with huge presence across the three leagues. They have stores, they have distribution and they have a gigantic online storefront that does huge business across hundreds of licenses. If they are going to use that infrastructure, to move trading card product, look out.

There are also big box retail outlets involved like Target and Wal Mart, which have been ravaged by idiots looking to make money on the hobby explosion over the course of the pandemic. Fanatics can service that as well.

Here is the challenge that has defined the way cards are made for decades – the manufacturers dont want to be in the business of holding product. They want to make it and ship it, they do not want to pay for warehouse space to hold it long term. They also didnt want to be in league with hundreds of tiny shops around the nation who didnt know how to run a business. Things like credit, pre-orders and shit like that were a bridge too far, especially entering into an age where everything is done online. We have all seen what that shift has meant for shops refusing to enter the 21st century.

Naturally, entities were created to exploit that. Take that off the plates of the manufacturers who were already struggling to make ends meet. Distributors have ran things around the hobby for a long time – that is until Group Breakers came on the scene. But again, we will get to that.

Because Distributors controlled where the product was going in a large portion of the run of any set, they had a ton of power to dictate how the future product runs were delivered. Sometimes it was for a good reason dictated directly to them by demand from the collecting base they serviced, other times it was solely for their own good. Sure, Panini and Topps sold directly to shops in some cases, but not enough to remove the distributors from the equation.

Unlike Topps, Panini and UD, Fanatics has a web already constructed in some of these areas, and if they were smart, they wouldnt let places like Blowout or their compatriots take any of that competitive advantage away. For a hobby like this, influence is everything, and I would be exceptionally hesitant about adding more seats at the table when you dont have to.

The last 2 years aside – this hobby has been on a downturn in most of the main areas populated by everyday consumers. Over the last two years, some of that power has gone back into the hands of the manufacturers because demand has been insatiable. Unfortunately, that also meant that many shops relied on old methods that were unable to scale and unable to support a growing tidal wave of interest from the population.

The advent of group breaking also helped to grow things in an exponential way, but even then, their presence still relied heavily on distributors to be a middle man in the supply line. Older product is something that currently has no place at the manufacturers, and that’s where most of the purchase power shifts directly into the hands of everyone’s least favorite power brokers.

If I am Fanatics, I would do everything in my power to break this cycle with consolidation in the most pressing possible way. Because Fanatics is as much a global distributor as they are a retailer, the need to push product around the old way doesnt need to exist. Additionally, because they have retail stores and relationships to market directly through the leagues themselves, Im not sure if they need the card shop market structure anymore.

Card shops will argue that they are the ambassadors, but with things the way they are, Fanatics may not want it that way. It all depends on the end goal that the new world order is designed to accomplish. If its mass market appeal, catering to shops around the country who dont have standardized presentations shouldnt be the plan. That’s where a fanatics retail experience will be the most important aspect of this new model.

Retail

Everyone knows exactly what to expect when they walk into an Apple Store. Everyone knows exactly what they are buying when they buy a McDonald’s Cheeseburger. That consistency does not exist in the hobby today across any aspect of the supply chain. Everyone who is reading this blog has been in a card shop. Everyone who is reading this blog has likely had a negative experience too.

With Trading Cards as investment pieces the new normal, its time for the shops to grow up as much as the products. There is a reason that the market exists the way that it does in the pandemic era, and most of it has to do with how unprepared the hobby was for the giant droves of attention that have come to our front door.

This also begs the question of whether or not Fanatics sees value in continuing down the current retail path or if they are looking to expand their reach. Will trading cards eventually be the investment pieces that they are right now, or will that also be coupled with access that isnt available right now. Will other spending levels be considered as viable segments because the audience is likely going to be larger? I believe they are heavily weighing a future where the only people that can join the hobby are those with tons of disposable income.

Remember, access to affordable products is what most collectors are harping on right now, because things have shifted so dramatically towards super premium methods of spending. I have always said that driving towards the higher end of things was the best option, only because the audience was so small. If the audience is bigger, the revenue generated per head can be a lot smaller.

That’s where these retail experiences can cater to both sides of the same coin. Either offer retail store that offers product along side all the licensed gear that already populates their stores, or create a premium shopping experience like buying a Rolex or a Tesla. There are no need for dingy shops in strip malls to be your ambassadors if you can build these cards into your existing retail empire.

Marketplace

The horror stories of the secondary market are so frightening that the fear of a negative buying experience has become as important as a flawless deal. So many times, eBay has been the primary marketplace, alongside Facebook, where billions of dollars change hands collector to collector, and little accountability on either side of the deal leads to gigantic universal issues.

In the articles we have already been clued into the fact that Fanatics wants to be a provider in this space as much as they are a supplier. Consolidating the marketplace has worked incredibly well in some hobbies, but it would change the game in this hobby. Being able to buy single cards or secondary market wax in a trustworthy environment would be so welcome that it could expand reach of this hobby all by itself.

Because the negative experiences are so widespread, its curious to think how a new collector to collector marketplace could exist under a new direction. I have always said escrow like transactions are the best approach, where collectors each send to a hub, who can validate each side of a deal before it is then sent to the other party. This can also work in a COMC like marketplace where the assets are all stored like a bank to be bought and sold through a third party.

Its easy to see here where Fanatics can step in, deliver the collector to collector experience we have all been clamoring for as well as a manufacturer direct to consumer approach that has become popular with Panini and Topps over the last 10 years.

Panini has offered single card purchases directly to the consumer for a few years now, but the scale was always limited by their relationships elsewhere that could be damaged by the change in market direction. Fanatics shouldnt have any of those dependencies, thus opening up a new stream of revenue that can deliver cards in a new way.

Grading

If you want to know my feelings on the grift that is the grading business, go search at the top of the page. I do not support grading as a service or as a business. There are too many conflicts of interest. To think that Fanatics could enter into this part of the hobby isnt shocking, but it could be interesting to see how it goes down.

This is one area where they have no footing, and really dont have a way to enter the market the same way they do in some of the other areas Im discussing in the article. Of all the numbers on my list, this is the one that I think they have the largest disadvantage.

Group Breaking

I once heard that before the boom, group breaking accounted for about 60% of all product sales across the hobby. I would argue that during the first upturn, it was probably more than that. Now, because individuals are more likely to want to avoid groups in their wax ripping investments due to the secondary market value of the tent pole hits in a product, I would think that number has dropped dramatically in percentage, but increased in volume.

The funniest thing is, all the manufacturers could have brought group breaks in house and prevented their products from being delivered to consumers in this fashion. There still isnt a legal precedent that says its kosher to offer a product this way. Fanatics could be the first manufacturer to limit distribution to the usual suspects, and prevent the conflict of interest that exists with manufacturers and breakers working together.

Without direct sales to group breakers, and creating their own versions of a marketplace for break slots, Fanatics could revolutionize this sometimes shady aspect of the hobby over time. I think the scale of it might be too large to undertake along side the other items on their startup list, but its cool to think about how this could go down. If access is the true goal, that’s where this could all be done, above board, and with oversight to deliver a positive customer experience.

Storage

The last aspect of the chain I want to discuss is one that was made popular by services like COMC. Places where collectors can house their wares and not have to worry about the sales aspect in a way like they do collector to collector. Because of the amount of space this requires, and what we have read in the articles, I think this area of the hobby is one Fanatics will target as well. Being able to store, sell and ship cards directly will undoubtedly be part of their plan, because they do it already.

Fanatics has sold single cards for almost a decade, and I would expect them to explore card storage areas very quickly because of the ease to break into the market when you control all the aspects of the supply chain.

Even though most of this article is speculative at this point, it should go without saying that change is coming. Massive change. If you own a hobby adjacent business or rely on this hobby for enjoyment, the next few years is going to be a wild ride. Fanatics set themselves up with one thing that is rarely plentiful in this hobby – time. They have four years to get this in motion, and I would argue that might be as much of a bad thing as it is a good thing. There are so many elements here that need to be hashed out, and its going to be interesting to see where their priorities lie. Best of luck to everyone, we are going to need it.

This has been a whirlwind for trading cards and collectibles that has extended into the far reaches of collectible enterprise, an experience that most never expected to become a reality. Five years ago, many of us were looking into the future and unclear about how we would participate in a hobby that was already getting expensive and geared towards collectors with huge budgets. Now, we can look back and laugh, knowing that the reality everyone thought was decades off came in less than 2 years.

One of the main challenges with collecting these days are people that focus more on the monetary aspect of things over the collection building aspects. These people are often referred to as flippers, flipbois, or worse, saying that their presence is more detrimental than helpful. Ive seen some numbers saying that hundreds of thousands of new faces are now populating the ranks of the hobby, with immediate responses from people that they arent “true collectors” and shouldnt be counted.

That’s where things break down, because the contingent of people in this hobby who have been around for years, decades, half centuries are looking at this new boom with two very different perspectives. The first perspective is about an outlook more akin to “the more the merrier” and the added value that comes with more attention. The second perspective is that this darkened corner of the collectibles universe is one that was better without the attention and new population. Some may have a little of column A and a little of column B in their minds, but for the most part, its a hard left or a hard right.

Welcoming the Crowd

Personally, my perspective is much more aligned with the idea that the more demand there is inside a collectible based economy, the better. I dont see how a hobby like this can exist without demand, because the way we interact with the market all centers around demand and value. If demand is high, the supply becomes more valuable, and the work to acquire a collectible for your collection becomes repaid with additional value. Although it becomes harder to make new acquisitions at the price before, the available equity and liquidity in a collection becomes a more adequate tool for the funds needed to offset the rise in costs given its new higher valuation.

Outside of the value based asset discussions, a mentality like this means more open arms for newer people, and a much more welcoming atmosphere to learn and be educated in the ways of the universe. Because the barriers to entry are lower, more demand enters the marketplace as a result.

One could argue that a low barrier to entry also brings with it more bad apples and riff raff, but I would argue those criminals and fraudsters would exist regardless of which path into the collecting forest one chooses.

The main characteristic that comes along with this attitude is patience, something most collectors dont have and wont learn to display. Patience to wait for better deals, patience to wait for pricing to adjust to a settled market, patience to be at the back of the line for collection additions instead of out front by a million miles.

For me, patience has always been the bane of my existence. I always wanted to be the first in line, but unlike most collectors, I was absolutely prepared for the extra monetary commitments that came along with it. Most are not willing or not able to be that person in a hobby like the one we have today, but many with means can afford it and then some.

I see this welcoming attitude as the key to sustained growth and sustained prosperity, but for whatever reason, most of the old guard wants things to go back to the way they were. They want to go back when Wax was easy to find and easy to buy, where access wasnt limited by funds in your paypal account. Ive seen first hand that new gatekeepers have arisen, opting to use the phrase “true collector” as a weapon rather than an identifier.

The New Gatekeepers

Every single time a major collector wants to set themselves apart, they look for identifiers to showcase both effort and accomplishment. The use of who is a “real” collector versus one of the flip based collectors mentioned above can be presented as a vicious juxtaposition that changes many debates about the state of things into an argument.

The us versus them type of categorizing collectors has been a tool for many years as prices were already started to rise in a steady fashion. It has now become a crutch for those who dont like the way things are trending, towards a collecting base of flip-minded dealers over the people who put cards in a page for their sets. Even that analogy is a gatekeeping style sentiment, that the true collectors want the sets and value completion versus ripping wax, gambling with packs and acquiring single cards for one’s PC.

As someone who has yet to ever complete a single set in a manner described above, I have faced this identification more frequently than I can recount. My collections, whether football, baseball or otherwise, have always been about quality over quantity, shedding the hoarder approach of a closet filled with cardboard boxes filled with completed sets by year. I have often said on this blog that the approach of taking around a piece of notebook paper with the numbers missing from a base set is one that is fading quickly, and frequently I have been criticized for that mindset.

The idea there is such a thing as a real collector versus a poser is hilarious, because no matter how prevalent the desired approach is among the existing population, everyone who owns a card with the intent of keeping it is a collector. No further identification is needed in that respect.

To speculate which side of the argument is better is natural, as each side has their own viewpoints on whether the extra attention is good or bad in the long run. To play gatekeeper in this manner to shun the new entrants who want to be a contributing part of the community, on the other hand, is fucking stupid. If someone wants to join ranks for a community based environment, they should be welcomed until they show they A) cannot contribute to a positive experience and value or B) showcase they are more interested in creating harm to the existing members.

Bottom line, this growth in the hobby wont likely continue on this trajectory forever, and most of us were already bored with the state of things before the boom. Maybe its time for all of us to put aside our gatekeeping mentality and revel together in the craziness that has happened over the last 24 months.

That doesnt mean we shouldnt try to temper expectations thanks to our experiences, or even try to figure out how to engage with the new population. The thought that we can look down our noses at the new people is a practice that wont help at all, and that is guaranteed. Remember, we were all new at one point or another and we have all found intense joy in creating our place in the community. I know I have. But if someone treated me the way I have seen old guard collectors treat new people to this hobby, I can guarantee you that my mindset about cards would be 100% different than it is today.

Those with the tribal knowledge to impart should be proud of their ability to impart that on others. Using terminology to demean those without knowledge is a practice reserved for elitists and assholes. Our society already has enough of those types of people, and we absolutely need more willing to teach rather than taunt.

Im not trying to use this site or this post as a campfire moment where we all sing harmoniously together, just remember that at one time or another, you were that person on the other side, and this community welcomed your view and your tendencies with enough happiness that you stuck around. Try to do that for others.

If you feel that the flipper attitude is one that is poisoning our well, that’s not uncommon, and you are far from alone. But I challenge you to better understand the reason those people arent leaving, and why so many of them have decided to invest tons of money to build a collection at the high point of this, rather than wait for things to settle down. Its a fascinating journey, let me assure you.

Back in the middle of August, we got the first shot across the bow with Fanatics’ entry into the sports card arena. They had wrestled away the MLB exclusive from Topps and were poised to do similar acquisitions in the NBA and NFL. Now that we have had an opportunity to digest all the news, I wanted to take some additional time to walk through a few more aspects of the takeover now that more of it has come into focus.

What We Know

Thanks to some reporting from the Wall Street Journal, it became abundantly clear that the MLB exclusive secured by Fanatics was not going to be the end of their head first dive into sports cards. When the news first broke, WSJ clearly stated that the NFL and NBA were next, and within a week, both had made announcements similar to what Topps faced.

Come 2026, Fanatics will have exclusive control over the NBA, NFL and MLB sports card market, and in the case of the NFL, we also know that will be a lengthy contract. Adam Schefter reported that they had negotiated a 20 year exclusive, which is not only fucking ridiculous, but kind of a moot point. When the leagues have a stake in the company producing the cards, there is no more negotiation. Fanatics will make cards for as long as they want to.

Similarly, we know they have big plans. According to a CNBC article posted a few days ago, Fanatics plans to use their retail empire to do a number of things that could have a vast impact on the hobby. Services and businesses adjacent to the production and sale of trading cards is in scope for this new world order, and none of it should be surprising.

Things like grading, authentication and retail stores are all within scope, some of which already have roots planted in the current Fanatics environment. Fanatics has been authenticating and slabbing player signed cards for years, mostly with a huge stable of signers that have used their company as a primary vehicle for their signatures.

We also know that Panini and Topps are going to face down some challenging times once this goes into effect, having lost the majority share of the market to this new juggernaut. One could point to other property licenses that drive revenue, or finding ways to produce unlicensed cards, but neither will generate the type of influence that they get from the big three.

This could lead to companywide transition periods for both major manufacturers, with many hobby pundits thinking a sale of assets or the entire company could be possible for both. I have heard things that are more than rumblings stating that Fanatics is going to be looking to acquire intellectual property to supplement their team’s creative brain trust, but nothing concrete has been announced.

What We Don’t Know

As of right now, we have heard little to nothing from Fanatics, or their leadership in terms of any concrete plans for 2026. They have been oddly quiet given the storm of news, and with four and a half years to make this work, I guess we shouldnt expect much speed in revealing their chess pieces on the board.

We also have very little idea of what will happen between now and 2026, as there were early reports that the player’s association exclusives could go into effect earlier than the property exclusive that gives rights to the logos and team names. If the player’s exclusive licenses do go into Fanatics’ hands early, they could potentially lock out a lot of action that would give Topps and Panini access to make cards of current players. Leaf has found ways to sign individual deals with guys like Steph Curry, Aaron Rodgers, and Giannis, but finding enough talent to mass produce profitable products at a level to satisfy license requirements is going to be VERY tough.

The main key question is how Fanatics plans to unleash their presence, either focus on capitalizing on a market that has become increasingly focused on super premium product lines, or shift to a more mass market appeal. If the licenses were slated to start tomorrow, I think it would be stupid to totally abandon the current approach, mainly because of the historic success cards have had since the beginning of the pandemic.

As that hype cools, something that has already started for the bottom 50-75% of the market, there is clearly going to be some desire to appeal more to the people who dont want to spend $1000 on a box of sports cards. Considering that Fanatics has already optimized their businesses and relationships to do that, it seems like a combo approach should be on the table from the get go. Normalizing the availability of cards is something many collectors want, while still providing a premium experience for those that want to engage in that fashion.

Because Fanatics has such a wide web of influence, I think we are going to see a brand new era of cards that has some of the same wheels turning as before, with a whole different car and driver built on top of them.

What is Coming Into Focus

If there is going to be a constant as the hobby hurdles towards this massive shift, its change. Things across the industry will change dramatically. Some will be for the better, some will be worse, some will be a train wreck. The adjacent businesses like the community of group breakers, retail shops and distributors/dealers will absolutely need to adjust. If we look back to the online shift, it took decades for some aspects of those areas to catch up.

There are still shops around the country that missed the boom because they have/had no clue how to stay agile in this industry. Others in the hobby have found ways to exploit the lack of agility in the industry, and its likely they are going to have to rethink their approach at some level.

Its obvious that the hobby’s entrepreneurs will find ways to stay relevant, but the people that can navigate the waters in the most effective possible way to create new services, new money making opportunities, and new exploitative techniques will progress quickly. Probably more quickly than they have in past shifts, because there are SO MANY more eyes on this hobby.

When the previous shifts happened, things were orders of magnitude smaller, and much easier for people to stand out. Places like COMC came into being because it was easy to see that a service was needed in their market spot. I would almost argue it was too easy, because we see how those peripheral businesses have struggled to scale with the boom.

Fanatics has scale built into their model from a retail and production standpoint, but what they dont have is experience. That aspect of building can be poached and acquired like the licenses, so its likely not as big a deal when you have half a decade to get ready.

Lastly, we dont have any clue how things will change before 2026. The card industry boomed in two years, and another four on top of that seems like a lifetime. I could see the news that collector’s favorite products will be transitioning into Fanatics’ hands or oblivion could both hurt and help value – depending on where those items sit on the spectrum of worth.

There will also be more licenses changing hands that could impact value across the board, and even more change coming from a business perspective. This is one of the hobbies where the secondary market is exponentially more important than the primary market, and that influence is beyond important.

Shoes, video games, comics, and other collectibles face the same dilemma, but licensing is much more fluid or non-existent in those universes. Fanatics has taken over a billion dollar industry in one fell swoop, and with that comes the burden of the supporting markets.

When you think about it, come 2026, everything we know in this hobby will have the potential to look entirely different. I cant remember the last time that happened, and it might not happen again. We always wondered what the next big thing would be after the invention of the jersey card in 1996. This is bigger.

Earlier, I spent a long time writing about how trading card licenses are the next true battleground for all interested entities that want to cash in on the recent boom. It was inevitable and obvious considering the cutthroat competition that has become commonplace each time a license came up for renewal. Yesterday, we might have seen what the endgame looks like, as the entire landscape of the industry shifted in the course of a few hours.

To put this in a TL;DR fashion – come 2026, the three biggest sports cards licensing brands will all be controlled by Fanatics, leaving Panini and Topps on the outside looking in for the first time, well, ever.

Lets take a step back to better understand why everything led to the news that came down yesterday. For a long time, trading cards didnt matter. They were a small piece of licensing that seemed big to the people in the mix, but tiny in the overall scope of things. With changes to the way brands worked with card companies finally taking shape in the mid 80s, it became very difficult to be a major player in the small niche card industry without a license from the leagues.

To break this down, any card company needs two licenses to operate freely in the major sports. First is the properties license that grants access to use team names, logos, stadiums, and events all covered by that body. The second is the player’s association license that grants access to current player likenesses and names. Theoretically, there are ways to get around the lack of both licenses, but the cost becomes exponentially higher, politics with the leagues get complicated, and product sizes and profits shrink. Without both licenses, one can make cards, but not at a scale that presents a grandly profuse amount of power or money.

Being that Fanatics, according the WSJ, has exclusives in place with the NFLPA, MLBPA, MLBP, and NBAPA, its inevitable that they will get the other two licenses needed to complete their trifecta. Its not just inevitable, its basically assured to happen quickly.

Most of this situation came to a head in 2007 when everything in the licensing game got inexplicably more complicated. At the time, there were three major players, which consisted of Topps, DLP (Donruss, Leaf, Playoff), and Upper Deck. This was following the collapse of previous powerhouse Fleer to bankruptcy and Pacific to similar circumstances. Unfortunately, cards werent as popular overall, so each company was doing what they could to scrape by.

For all intents and purposes, Upper Deck and their investment in super premium products put them at the forefront of the three major sports, with Topps’ history giving them a close second. DLP was on the outs, having lost their baseball license in 2005. Enter, the Panini Group, based out of Italy.

With a group of people left over from the Fleer days and strategic people from DLP, Panini decided to buy directly into the slumping US card market from their roots in sticker albums, looking to stoke a flame where they saw potential. Panini America was created, and within 2 years had ripped away the one license that made Upper Deck a powerhouse. For the first time in the industry, an exclusive license was granted, locking out other companies from producing cards in that sport. Panini took Upper Deck’s history of shady business practices and declining finances to shore up both the properties and player’s association license from the NBA, and start their path in the hobby.

Unbeknownst to almost every collector, this license would start an era of competition in trading cards that would change everything about the way people collected. Arguably, the first player exclusives signed by Upper Deck with Michael Jordan and LeBron James could be considered the XRC to this RC, but its semantics overall. From that point forward, every league saw the ease and benefit of investing in a single company, and by 2015, every league had an exclusive. It took 6 years for the entire licensing platform to change, and another 6 years before it would shift again.

As a result of the exclusive licenses being signed, the competition for those licenses and licenses of every potential licensing property became the goods by which industry manufacturers bought and sold. To be fair, it was this competition that led to a surge back to stability prior to the pandemic boom, but from a collector perspective, it was akin to losing children. Brands that people loved in multiple sports rarely crossed barriers, and some were lost forever. It was a time where hobby titans found their place in line moved up or moved back, and this giant period of flux was unlike anything we had ever seen, until yesterday.

Yesterday, multiple reports surfaced that upstart card company and global merchandising mammoth Fanatics will be taking over in 2026 for the MLB license owned exclusively by Topps for decades. Beyond that, they have also secured player’s association license exclusives with NBA and NFL beginning in 2023, which effectively means that the properties licenses for those leagues wont be far behind. Come 2026, its likely that Fanatics will be the sole provider of trading cards in the entire marketplace, leveling the incredible progress made by Topps and Panini over the last 20 years.

This is where the speculation takes center stage, as we saw a planned public merger for Topps to go public be terminated a day later. Basically, this removes a considerable part of the valuation for both companies, likely relegating both to a secondary position after a decade in power, which also included the biggest hobby boom in the history of cards.

So, what does this mean?

A few key questions need to be answered, and answered clearly for us to gauge the impact to our collecting lives. First, Fanatics is a mass market type of company, what is their vision for the trading card market segment? Are they going to continue down the trail blazed by their predecessors, or is it time to more fully integrate the mass market appeal of collectibles into the fabric of the leagues?

Unlike Topps and Panini, each of the three leagues has equity in Fanatics. Its not a small chunk either, with some investments looking to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. For all of the tenure that Panini and Topps had in cards, the league was always their licensor, not their partner. Its different here, and that’s a game changer. Because there is actual business stakes involved, the leagues have a vested interest in the success of Fanatics in this space. This will likely open doors that the other manufacturers could only dream of. Even though Trading Cards are white hot right now, they still pale in comparison to the overall sports value segment that Fanatics now has an unblocked highway to exploit.

Because cards have shifted from grocery store impulse buys at a quarter a pack, to luxury investments that cost as much as a house, the accessibility to product is something that isnt suited for the mass market. Fanatics can straddle the line, but I have a feeling they may opt for more consumers taking smaller bites than whales that bite off giant pieces. Again, all part of where they see this going.

Honestly, the trajectory of the industry seems suspect right now for the first time in years, even prior to this big news. Things are trending down, and 2-4 years is a lifetime in this industry. We could be in a completely different space in 2026 than we are now, hell it might not even be that long. Fanatics will be tasked with prolonging the sales trajectory to a favorable spot, and Im curious if the current structure is more suffocating than it is helpful.

Right now, there are 3-4 levels of people that all need to make money for the industry to remain on the track it was on 6 months ago. First, the manufacturers have to make money, selling their product, recouping budget, and licensing costs. Then the distributors have to make money, because they bring the product to the market, save a small percentage that goes direct. Then the breakers have to make money, the people who open the sealed wax and sell their results to the last level, the end user who has to make money too.

If Im Fanatics, where the manufacturer and distributor levels are easily taken care of, do the other levels make as much sense? This might be the biggest question facing the hobby, because for the first time ever, there is a manufacturer that is also a wholesale distributor, flush with partners and a giant network of retail to sell and distribute product.

This brings us to the last part of the speculation, which is what happens with other properties that are still owned by companies who sucked them up in the great consolidation era of the 2010s? I already posted news that WWE will be moving their exclusive license to Panini, who will still have NASCAR, Soccer, and a number of other properties to float their business. Topps will still have Star Wars, Disney, F1, Soccer, and a number of confectionary licenses like Ring Pop, that is nothing to scoff at. Are those companies going to continue down the path they are on, or is a sale in their future too?

There has been a ton of talk that Fanatics will be looking to buy out either one, but I think the other questions about vision need to be answered before we get to that point. The only reason to buy either company is for their brand IP, of which Topps has Bowman and Chrome, and Panini has Prizm and NT. It is yet to be seen whether or not Fanatics wants to create their own brand recognition or use another company’s.

What this does mean is that for the foreseeable future, Fanatics and their league partners are going to be peas in a pod. There is no use in competing for those licenses due to the equity based partnership Fanatics has with MLB/NFL/NBA, and that’s huge. Licensing competition drove innovation, product creation and partner engagement – none of that matters anymore, unless Fanatics kills off any momentum there already was. Dont get me wrong, that’s a huge possibility.

If Fanatics decides that a mass market vision doesnt include $27k boxes of cards, or even $5k, it could create a subculture similar to what we saw with older Upper Deck products. Mass market appeal for non-essential items at a ultra premium price point doesnt exist unless you are Apple, Tesla or Google. Its hard to see them try to continue that path. That could make older cards, vintage and previous era items even more collectible, knowing that this era of cards is relatively over.

However, if Fanatics does decide to swing the pendulum back the direction it was already going, we could see stuff unlike anything that has ever been offered. Direct access to the league’s assets means unprecedented opportunities for premium collectibles, and that could usher in a brand new crop of crazies.

Like I said, the next few years will feel like a lifetime in this hobby, but hopefully more information will be coming that provides some clues as to the direction things are headed.