I have gotten a few emails from different readers, including AR Platinum of youtube fame, who have busted their boxes of Black with very unfortunate results. I could have told you up front that the Black box breaks were not going to be a money making venture, as they never are, but I will stand by the box breakers who look to be getting hosed on their breaks. For a product like this, there really needs to be some value in breaking boxes.
Those awesome memorabilia cards seem to be seeded at less than one per case, and the rookie autos have some questionable people on the checklist. I think collectors are going to quickly learn their lesson regarding pre-ordering products like this, especially at 100 per pack with a hit or miss type of configuration.
However, I will say this, for those of us who stick to buying singles, I think there are a lot of really amazing cards. Yet, those singles will never see the light of day if more than the fair share of boxes contains nothing but crap. People will avoid buying the boxes until prices drop, and at that point, the singles drop too. Black Baseball from a few years back was a huge casualty of that reality, now selling at a 50% clip from its MSRP.
Although I think there is enough cards to keep the box price above that level, its going to be a rough go at it if a lot of the preliminary breaks turn out like AR’s.