Its Just Preseason

Every year there is one lower tier rookie that tears it up during the preseason, usually destroying defenses and scoring a few TDs. This usually causes a huge bump in cards that shouldnt really be worth what they are, mostly because people dont realize the role the player will actually have during the regular season.

In 2007, David Clowney was the guy, as he had a large role during the preseason, but didnt have a chance of doing anything during the regular season. His cards were going for a ton more than they should be, until people realized that investing in a guy that wouldnt catch a ball during the real games was a horrible idea. He was picked up by the Jets, but didnt put up a single stat in 2007. In 2008, he caught one pass during the regular season. The lesson? Dont let preseason numbers fool you.
This year, running back Glen Coffee has put up impressive preseason numbers. With Frank Gore in the backfield taking most of the important carries, Coffee will get some time, but not as much to make his cards go for what they are right now. Coffee showed he has some talent, but as a third round pick behind a player with a huge contract, it is really tough to put any money behind him without first letting the games play out.

Bidding On Ebay: Dont Get Eaten Alive

Since eBay is the lifeblood of many of us for singles that we want to purchase, I want to discuss bidding practices for possibly getting the card you want, at the price you want it. I know for me, I have personal policies that I only break under very particular circumstances, and I am hoping that this discussion can help some people out, or at least prevent stupid bids from happening to my card.

First, the question of bidding late versus bidding early always presents itself with an auction that is not BIN/BO. I know when I take a look at an item, I always look at the clock first. Normally, unless it is a card that I know wont come up again for a while, I wont even open an auction unless there is a BIN or less than a day left. Its just pointless to examine an auction for a non-rare card if there is eight days left on the timer. In fact, if the card isnt low numbered or rare, you shouldn’t be bidding early either. Just put it on your watch list if its important, and wait until later. Early bidders suck when an auction first comes up, mainly because it normally disqualifies a BIN/BO, and puts the auction in the seller’s court if he is a shiller. If the card is rare, it’s a little different, because early bids can sometimes prevent off eBay sales, and can put you in the drivers seat for watching the item grow. However, the shill is still a factor, and it is always a good idea to look out for that.

As for the BIN/BO auctions, its always safe to believe that the card is not going to go for less than it usually does. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule, but it’s mostly a waste of time to use lowball offers. If you actually want the card, its better to just offer fair market value, plus a possible incentive of a few extra dollars, just to prevent a loss because the seller hates you. BIN/BO is a great way to buy cards, unless you are dealing with a shop that still operates on book value. Then you should just avoid the item in the interest of time, as they are not going to be accepting reasonable offers. Also, if you want the card, and you put in a lowball offer, don’t expect a counteroffer. Most people, including myself sometimes, just think you are some kid who doesn’t know any better, and will deny you without a thought. If you are indifferent to the card, go ahead and lowball, you may get lucky. No reason to risk a card you want because you want a crazy good deal.

In terms of late bidding, I usually wont bid on a card unless there is less than 30 seconds in the auction. Because sniping, or “eFucking” as my dad calls it, has become so popular, its stupid to put in an early bid on a card you want without considering how many other people want it. Sniping is a great idea, especially if you have found a good program, because you can easily enter in the max price you want without having to sit there and wait. As for me, I don’t like to use programs, mostly because I like to see the auction develop in the last seconds. If the card ends late, I will set an alarm if its important. Its just a thing for me, doesn’t happen often that I need to go out of my way to be there. Plus, the card is going to go at or around SV 99% of the time, so putting in early bids of 10 bucks on a 100 dollar card is just not going to be a good use of resources – unless, like above, its rare and succeptible to off eBay deals.

The important thing remains, if you see a card you want, just be smart about it. Don’t be stupid enough to let a card go because you want to get the best possible deal. Its better to assume the card will go at the expected price, and feel good when you get a deal. Also, the golden rule remains, unless you get some 2,000 dollar card for 200 bucks, there is no reason to go posting steals all over message boards. I will come and strangle you with the cord from your desk lamp.

Ha-Ha: Selvin Young Cut

If you remember back to the beginning of last year, I wrote a post about the ridiculous prices that people were paying for a Selvin Young SPA RC auto. I mean, the cards were going for close to 150 bucks.

As of yesterday, the Denver Broncos have decided to move in another direction and waive Young after drafting or signing quite a bit of new talent, most notably Knowshon Moreno.
Young will find another job without a problem, but this is where the Peterson effect makes people look like complete fools. Yes, Terell Davis was a 250th round pick, and yes he had an amazing career in Denver, but Selvin Young is not Terell Davis, idiot. See, people will just throw money at any player, in baseball too, that gets a start. Score a TD, and its time to pay out your wallet’s limit for an SPA auto.
This example is why my new mantra is “dont be that guy,” plain and simple. Otherwise you may end up with a card you paid 150 bucks for that is worth nothing based on a dumb prospecting move that made no sense.

Collecting On A Budget: Getting On Board With The Top Of The Class

Each year a new class comes to the front of the hobby, usually there are one or two that are in the stratosphere for pricing, a middle group of people who are expensive but not overly expensive, and lastly, the scrubs. In 2007 I was faced with a whole year of collecting that top level of rookie with Peterson, but last year, Booty was, in terms of value, a scrub. This year, Harvin will probably be a mid level guy, taking in 20-30 bucks for autos after the first few games of the season, my wallet is thanking me right now. The question remains, what if you are “stuck” with the top guy in the class, but don’t have the cash? Here are some solutions I have had to incoporate into my repetoir.

First, Chrome is your best friend. You can usually buy a box for less than 50 bucks, and you can get some of the best looking base RC cards out there. Although the autos of your top guy will be scarce, you probably wont need to spend more than 5 bucks for an amazing base card. The good thing is that collectors still value chrome, so it isnt one of those, “lets throw base RCs in here because we need to fill the set” type of things. Also, parallels for chrome will also still be well received, so that will work in your favor. Of all the parallels in the hobby, this and SPA are the only ones I support. The icing on the cake is that chrome comes out early, so you don’t have to wait to long to have a keeper. After all, you could get lucky in your box.

Second, pick your battles. There is no reason to be a super collector these days, as there is no possible way to get everything. That doesn’t mean you cant pick your favorites, however. Choose a set or two that you know will be amazing from the previews and years past, and save your shit for that release. If you like Contenders, don’t waste your money on buying card after card after card. I know one of my favorite sets of the year is Classics because I know that it is the first Post RC Premiere product. The autos are just the base cards in a parallel, so I know it wont be a crappy RC subset that was an afterthought. Plus, from the previews, it looks pretty good this year. Because of my feelings, I wouldn’t buy boxes of Elite, UD Draft, or Prestige because I am a bigger fan of the later sets. Funny enough, Draft actually looks pretty good this year, so I may jump on that boat despite my Classics target.

Third, know your personal structure of value. If you want a nice card of your top guy, and know that you will only have one or two shots at an auto with the money you have, it may be in your favor to just pick the highest up on the value structure. Usually the top of the pyramid are always nice cards, and I hope that continues. Here is my list of cards to consider:

1. Exquisite Auto Patch
2. SPA Auto Patch
3. National Treasures Auto Patch
4. Chrome Base RC Auto
5. Topps Rookie Premiere Auto
6. SPX Auto Jers
7. Contenders Auto Ticket
8. UD Premier Auto Jers
9. Limited Auto Jers
10. Gridiron Gear Double Patch Auto (the one without the EU Football)

Of course, if you just want a cheap auto option and just want it to look nice, there are quite a few early DLP products with tons of subset autos to choose from, along with UD heroes and UD Icons. They wont be worth a ton, but they will look nice. Plus I believe that most of the UD products this year will be on card, if not all, so that will be good if you want something similar to the on card bonanza that happens with the top end of the scale.

Really, I cant stress enough how important it is to save up your cheese for something you need, as there is always something else you want. If you chip away at the 400 you need to pay for a top level SPA patch auto all year by throwing a few dollars aside each time you want to make a worthless buy, you will have your cash when you need it. However, if you buy junk for a year and then wonder why you are short on cash, I have an “I told you so” cocked and ready to fire.

Lastly, it comes down to watiting versus jumping the line. If you have a QB as your top guy, and you cant possibly wait one second, fine. Otherwise, QBs usually don’t start their first season, and when they do, they usually suck. However, if you wait until this reality sweeps over the line jumpers, you can usually chop 20-30 bucks off the 100 the autos usually cost. For a RB, people are obsessed with buying as many as possible, just in case there is some miniscule chance that the guy turns into Peterson. Look at Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Rashard Mendenhall, all of whose prices were astronomical beofre the season thanks to the idiots who don’t know any better. Then, as they started to show that they were still rookies, prices fell with reckless abandon. McFadden was tops to start the year, and ended up near the middle of the value pack at the end. Mendehall bottomed out and almost became a scrub. Don’t make this mistake for yourself.

Also, here is the way value will even out as the years pass. Even though a WR may be the top guy now, history shows that in the long run they wont be:

1. QB
2. RB
3. WR
4. LB
5. TE
6. DE/DL
7. CB
8. OL

Be smart, and for god’s sake, don’t be that guy.