Dont Bet These Ponies Just Yet…

Coming up this week, we are going to get our first taste of the rookies in their NFL uniforms. Usually this is a big week for me, as I am not a college collector in any way. Yet, as I look around, I see the value drastically skewed in favor of people prospecting on the rookie QBs, despite not knowing whether or not their college resumes will translate to Sundays.

Last year was a fluke. Im going to say that more so than anything else I will say in this post. Ryan put up great numbers with an okay team, and made them better. Flacco put up okay numbers on a great team and basically didn’t fuck things up enough for them to falter. This never happens with two rookie QBs doing great with their teams, in fact, it really hasn’t happened since Roethlisberger did great with the Steelers in his rookie year. Most of the time, though its becoming less common, the QBs will sit for a year to brush up on their league knowledge, or to give the existing starter a chance to set the table. Funny enough, even Peyton Manning had some ridiculously awful first few years, and his bad team was better than Stafford’s.

So, before you go out and buy handfuls of Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman cards, you should realize that this will probably be the peak of their value for the next year, if not ever. Prospecting is all about buying low and selling high, so there is zero reason to “invest” now, especially when these guys are not exemplary college QBs. Stafford wouldn’t have been the #1 pick if Bradford and Tebow had decided to come out, and Sanchez declared for the draft for that very reason. Freeman was just a Flacco style risk for the Bucs, though he looks like he has the tools to be good. The question still remains, even with all of this, even if you are a huge Georgia, SC, or KSU fan, why are people buying now?

Im guessing that Stafford has the height because he was a highly publicized number one pick from the worst team in NFL history. However, he will have that team to deal with when he comes to play. He is going to have many more interceptions than TDs, because the Lions just arent that good. The offensive line was as bad as you could get last year, and that hasn’t changed all that much. Stafford will be on his back more than Paris Hilton in front of a camera, and I am not kidding. For a rookie QB, this causes bad mistakes and even worse confidence issues. Ryan was different because his team had more pieces than the Lions do, but also because he had a few targets to play with, in addition to a great running back. It helps when you have someone to take the pressure off when you need it. Stafford wont have that.

At this point in the year, its better to invest in later round guys that could be standouts once the pre-season rolls around. They will have very small prices for cards that are numbered pretty high, and buying now at nothing and then selling later at something is much better than paying astronomical prices for Stafford and Sanchez and holding them through long droughts of low prices. If you must buy, wait until week 8 when it sets in that these guys arent living up to the amazing seasons that Ryan and Roethlisberger had. You can buy their cards for half the price they are now, and all you have to have is a little fucking patience.

Though all the JCs on eBay are pooping themselves each time a new Stafford card is released, they probably don’t have the smarts to realize what is going on. They are pretty much bidding against themselves, while all the smart people sit back and laugh. Take this as your hint to sell while prices are high, right JaMarcus Russell?

You may be asking what I will say if one or both of these guys end up with stellar first seasons? I will congratulate them for beating the odds, and extend my willingness to take an “I told you so” those people who took those odds to the bank. I am willing to do this because the feat is so rare. My prospect-wang may be small, but im not stupid.

The 2009 Autolic Test: NFL Draft Edition

I thought now was as good a time as any to go over this, mainly because I have a feeling that many of you are wondering. For each draft class we all pick our people. We go over the rounds and decide on a guy based on team, college, style whatever. I also know that many of you want to see an auto before you decide. Or, as I put it, whether or not the guy passes or fails your version of the Wonderlic Autograph Test (The Autolic Test). For those of you who are not familiar, the Wonderlic is a test given to all prospects at the combine to test a number of different things about their intelligence, football intelligence, etc. The Autolic test is one performed by many collectors to determine if the autograph has merit or is subject to the Morency quotient.

This year, I think we are ridiculously lucky as long as none of the players decide to pull a press pass and sign better when there are few cards to sign, and give up when there are many. Top QB autos have been very good the last few years, and Stafford is no exception. The guy is great, he should be hailed for his detail and penmanship. Nice job. Same goes for Beanie Wells, who has a great auto for his cards. Sanchez has a loopy swoopy graph, that I don’t mind, and Moreno’s isnt bad either. Harvin and Crabtree have a nice visual appeal to theirs, as well, as both should do pretty amazing when you see them on better cards.

On the other hand, Josh Freeman is a jumbled mess. If I gave you this pic and told you to pick his out, you would really have to go through a few deductions in your head before pointing the finger in his direction. Heyward-bey isnt horrible, but it is boring to me for some reason, mainly because you could practically draw a line through his sig and hit every stroke of every letter. Like I said, not horrible, just boring.

You may think that I put too much thought into this, but I will give this fact as the reason for my use of the Autolic test. I hate give up autos, and I hate weird looking autos. If the player puts no effort into it, I will not keep any of their cards. I did not buy a single Chris Johnson card last year, mainly for that exact reason.

Im sure as the card season progresses, we will see numbers added and all sorts of changes as the cards transfer from on card to sticker and back on card. However, as of now, this class’ graphs pass the test with flying colors.



Press Pass Hype Has Reached A Level Of Absurdity

So, I was doing my usual eBay digging that I do when I get bored, and I stumbled across two separate phenomena that I deem absolutely fucking ridonkulous. 

#1 – Matthew Stafford Press Poop autos are going for in upwards of 100 dollars. Are you fucking kidding me? First off, Stafford wont even be worth a purchase until 2011, and even then he will still probably be on the Lions. Secondly, if you look at past trends, Matt Ryan Press Poop autos from 2008 are holding steady at 45 and below, unless low numbered. Adrian Peterson Press Poop autos from 2007 are below what stafford is going for. What the fuck people? This is fucking nuts. Do your fucking homework and stop making “im sad about no football” purchases. Hell, UD draft comes out in a few weeks, calm the fuck down.
#2 – Knowshon Moreno Press Poop Autos are cracking $50 on a regular basis. Holy fucking fuck, I dont even know what to say. Its pre draft and there is no guarantee the guy will even be drafted in the top 20, and you are paying 50 fucking dollars? Are you mental? Jesus. Go buy yourself an auto’ed mini helmet and have something nice until the real stuff comes out, or have a little patience. 
My name is Adam and I think Press Pass is a waste of space.