Let me start off this post by saying I honestly don’t care how much box prices cost as long as the cards look good. As long as the cards are cool to display and showcase top notch design work, Ill buy them regardless of price. However, the same cannot be said for most of the collectors out there. Because the hobby is composed of collectors who have all sorts of “I only collect..” statements about their collections, box price is a huge issue that is not really being addressed in a widespread way. Panini may put out product after product that costs 80-100 bucks for 3-4 hits ad nauseum, but it doesn’t really benefit anyone when this happens, especially with the way they usually construct box content. Same goes for Topps and Upper Deck, as eventually people are going to grow bored with configurations, and the money will drop.

Now, its not all bad, as there are still a lot of products like Topps, Topps Chrome, and now Score that deliver a lot of fun without a lot of risk. A collector can drop 50 bucks on a box and walk away with some great stuff in the case of these three products, but it takes a certain type of collector to enjoy the experience of opening these cards. People like me, who only care about autographed cards, are probably going to avoid these types of products unless there is some extemporaneous factor, for instance, like Bryce Harper cards in baseball. The bottom line is that you cant make everyone happy, but I defitely think there is a lot of room for improvement in each level of the box price spectrum.

Low End (60 bucks and below)

There needs to be a reason to buy the cards other than hits and collecting the set. Topps has done an amazing job with this by offering rare case hit variations and an easy to follow parallel structure in just about every one of their low end sets. Because of this practice year after year, collectors assign higher value to the parallels in Topps sets than they do in sets from other companies. Also, Topps rarely numbers their insert cards, whereas Panini numbers just about every aspect of the product. I think that each low end set should feature a great design for the base cards, autographed cards at least one every other box, and lots of chase elements to bring in more facets of the collector base. If more programs like the Gridiron Giveaway or Diamond Dig were available, that would be icing on the cake.

Middle End (100 bucks and below)

These products are where 90 percent of Panini’s calendar falls, and almost every one of the products offers the exact same configuration. Its terrible. Not only that, but so many of their products look like they were designed by a high-schooler on MSPaint, that it takes away from the “value” of the box you buy. In order to save this type of product, there needs to be a worthwhile box chase for everyone. That means that jersey hits are rare and far between and there are at least two autos per box. We all know that Rookie content is mandated by the license, but that doesn’t mean that veteran content should be forgotten. In a perfect world, there should be at least one hard signed subset (rookie or otherwise) in the set, and there should be some aspect of hall of fame or retired content as well. Most importantly, each card needs to look like it was designed to be that card, not some parallel of that card. What I mean is that jersey subsets need to be ONLY jersey, and auto subsets need to be ONLY auto. No more of this incomplete crap that Panini stuffs into each of their sets, ones that look like the person forgot to apply the sticker.

High End (200 bucks and below)

This is where we start getting into gambling territory. On a box that costs in this range, there needs to be some sort of stipulation that guarantees some sort of value in the box. Not saying every box has to get exactly the money back, but there should be something in place to help out people that get skunked. Say, you can submit your break to be entered into a contest for prizes or something like that. I think it would take some of the salt out of the wound and maybe would bring some people up to this buying level if they knew they werent going to get skunked as often. Upper Deck was great in saying EVERY case of XXXX product would contain an auto of a top group of players, but I think it needs to be more than just that. Secondarily, there needs to be on card rookie content in these types of sets. There is no excuse for it not to happen, and that is the bottom line. Stickers are not necessarily outlawed, but the majority of at least the rookie content needs to be on card. Additionally, there needs to be a ramped up vet/retired element to the set, so that it is more than a negligable part of the checklist. That is a dealbreaker for most collectors, especially with the price of boxes being so high for a bunch of rookies. When 90% of the rookies become less than superstars, box hits and value of older products drops significantly each year. This is where vet/retired content comes in.

Super High-end (600 bucks and below)

This is very simple. All on card autos. Good mix of rookies and vet/retired. Well thought out checklist. Superb design. No un-autographed jersey cards. Excellent case hit crop, and elite chase aspect. There had better be close to no skunk boxes for this price, you better have something for every person who pays this price of admission. This better be your best looking product of the year, and that needs to be an overwhelming feeling that runs through the collector base. It cant be one of your mid-end products with a few extra hits in a 1 pack configuration, RIGHT 2009-2010 National Treasures?

Again, these are all what would happen in a perfect world. Of course, its not the way things are considered before, and none of this factors in cost of production. I will say, this IS a pretty good representation of what I think could drive people to buy more of the products that are out there, and that is a big factor of maybe why card companies are in the position they are in right now.

If you have been keeping up with the news and rumors on the NFL lockout, you are probably aware that this week, and especially today, are critical in the outcome of the negotiations. Connected reporters are “cautiously optimistic” that a deal can get done this weekend, and that football can begin next week if everything goes to plan. Whether or not this is even close to the truth remains to be seen.

The question, as discussed here on SCU a number of times is whether or not this extended lockout has irrepairably damaged the value of current and future football cards. If you look at current trends, the answer looks to be a short term yes and a long term no. We have seen products like Prestige and Elite completely bomb for lack of a better term, with secondary market values of top rookies not even covering the cost of a box. Basically if you hit the best rookie auto available, you are barely going to make your money back. This was not the case one year ago with top guys like Bradford, Tebow and Bryant. I accredit this phenomenon to both the lockout and the design of the cards released, but we will not see the full extent of things until the rookies get onto the field.

Here is what I am talking about:

Cam Newton Elite TOTC Auto /199

Mark Ingram Elite TOTC Auto /199

Jake Locker Elite TOTC Auto /199

In fact, because products are rookie driven in the NFL more than any other sport, this is where the problem will be. Without the usual off season to prepare the rookie classes for an NFL season, their production will most likely drop below any semblance of a good performance. Top pick Cam Newton is in the most precarious position of all, being a new QB with a new coach, and that doesn’t spell good things usually for someone like him. When playcalling and defense reading abilities were already sub-par rated before the draft, he is going to have some major hurdles to overcome.

I would believe that this situation and the situation of guys like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton are quite fresh in the forefront of the mind of the collecting populace, as its tough to prospect QBs to begin with. In fact, it may be so tough, that guys like Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams and company may see a boost because Running Backs can excel in even the toughest situations.

Overall, I have to believe that the biggest effect on the card market wont be the lack of football, just the quality of football once they get back on the field. When athletes are put to their own stations, they either run wild or stay on point, and that can affect things more than I am guessing it would. When you consider how different the pro game is from college, you can see just how problematic this situation can become.

Wow, wow, wow. Panini really blew their load today, and previewed just about every product they have coming up during the usual mid calendar blur of products. Not only did we get confirmation that they are bringing gold standard to football, but we got a good look at Limited, Certified, and Crown Royale’s rookie box hits. I was expecting disasters, absolute train wrecks for lack of a better terms, but much to my surprise, they werent as bad as I expected them to be.

Absolute Jumbo Swatch Rookies

Not bad, much like the preview we got a couple of weeks ago. At least they are not going to be covering up players with swatches this time. Thanks to the horizontal orientation, they have a lot more ability to use the blank spot on the card. The number die cuts are fine, nothing ground breaking, but again, it could be a lot worse.

Certified Freshman Fabric Rookies

Thank god they left the helmets on for these cards, and for the most part, they look pretty good. They will be foil, of course, but really aside from that, my only complaint is the rookie’s name crawling up the side instead of on the bottom. I think if the set is done correctly, these cards could be winners, even with the foil that I hate so much.

Crown Royale Rookie Die Cut Autos

I think that last year, this set was a complete clusterfuck, in every possible way that it could be. The one bright spot was the diecut rookie memorabilia auto cards that were numbered ridiculously low. They are back this year, and from what these are looking like, much improved. I think this set will most likely fall short again, but I am definitely excited for these cards.

Limited Rookie Phenoms

I thought these cards were absolutely awful last year after being awesome the year before. Again on foil, these cards don’t look to have improved all that much. They are better in some ways, but I still get a very distinct triple threads vibe off these cards. Considering that Limited is one of the biggest products of the year, these should be a lot better than they seem to be.

Panini Gold Standard Rookie Autos

Snooooooooze. That’s all I really need to say. More of the typical Panini junk. Throw these in the trash with Timeless Treasures. Blechhhhhh.

Remember, these cards are just the routing table version of the design, and as we saw with Prestige, can be destroyed in the meantime. Secondly, we know that Panini still fills content in their products like its 2003, so im sure there is not going to be a lot to write home about when we see the final versions of the product. The good thing is that for most of these, they are very much improved over the absolute turds from Elite and Prestige, and they will be the main box hits for major products. That is a good thing.

Hopefully this signals a turnaround for them, but I am not holding my breath yet.

When Upper Deck lost both the baseball and the football license due to situations that were both well within their responsibility to avoid, it was only a matter of time before someone tried to take advantage of the collectors who knew little to nothing. As someone who likes to keep up on the different scams around the hobby, it was pretty shocking when Jeff from Iamjoecollector.com brought this particular instance with Masterpieces baseball and football to light. As someone who buys more of this product than anyone in existance, he would know what to look for in avoiding bad sales on fakes. As someone who likes to examine autographs, I have to agree 100% with his assessment of what is going on.

Basically, here is what happens:

- The seller finds a base card of some popular player.
- They sign the autograph of the player onto the card
- They hand number the card to signify that it wasn’t originally done the usual way
- They list it on eBay as a “rare redemption replacement straight from Upper Deck

Yeah right.

Im not saying this seller is the one responsible for the fakes, but someone is.

Here are some examples to avoid:

2007 Masterpieces Daisuke Matsuzaka “On Card Auto”

2008 Masterpieces Brett Favre “On Card Auto”

In the end, as always, education is the best weapon against this practice. So far, there has been no response from Upper Deck’s legal team, and I really don’t expect there to be. As far as we know, there were ZERO hand numbered autographed base cards in masterpieces, and if there were, they would come with a certificate from Upper Deck that good sellers include in the auctions. If the autos even looked remotely close, it wouldn’t even be a problem. Even if these looked legit, however, I wouldn’t touch them regardless. You cant be too sure these days.

Right now, there is a big gap of products before Topps Football is released later this month. Its going to be almost four whole weeks until something worth buying hits shelves, and that could make for some very hard times if you have the itch to bust some wax. In fact, with the way Topps football is looking, you may need to save your money in the meantime, as the cards look awesome compared to previous years of the set. With case hit variations back for year 3, two on card auto sets, and a set collector’s paradise of a product, its worth the wait for sure.

However, the question remains, what if you just cant get past this drought?

2011 Upper Deck Sweet Spot

I am not a college collector, but I do love the helmet autographs from past years of this set. This year I really dislike the design, and the checklist has always been a problem with Sweet Spot since about 2007. If you are desperate, this is a good fun break, however, I would most likely suggest waiting to see what comes out of it before dropping major coin on boxes. Singles from this set will sell well because of product availability, but after that, its not much of a juggernaut like some of the other upcoming products will be.

2010 Topps Chrome

I think the 2010 rookie class is going to have a banner year this year, mainly because the 2011 class wont do very well without an offseason of OTAs and similar activities. Plus, they were good last year to begin with, and their values definitely reflect that. 2010 Chrome was a cheap break with great looking cards, and a lot of potential for value outside of the normal box hit auto. I had to have broken about a case worth, and though I didn’t hit any Tebow or Bradford, it was still a ton of fun.

2010 Contenders

I hated that Panini ruined the awesome design with foil for the autos yet again, but the set was solid. If you can get the boxes for under 150, there is still a lot of good stuff left. Although the Golden Ticket cards are so ugly that they make 2011 Elite look like Exquisite, they are worth a ton if you can find the remaining few. Bradford and Tebow are all over this product with good looking rookie autos, and that is where a lot of collectors have loved contenders. Hope you don’t pull one of the Rookie Ink cards, because they may be the ugliest in the history football cards. Im not kidding.

2009 SP Authentic

I thought 2009 SPA had a great design, and it was really the last hurrah of a lot of the Upper Deck NFL work that I could not get enough of. Although there are many redemptions in this product, Stafford and Sanchez are live, and UD has shipped out a lot of the redemeers even without a license. If you want on card autos and a great looking set, this is it.

2010 Topps Finest

Man oh man was this set a surprise last year, and luckily for us, prices have dropped since the initial spike. Its still over what MSRP was, but its worth it for the fun of the break. My only complaint is the vertical patch autos that had the swatch covering up the players, but everything else was awesome. For 100 bucks with two jersey autos and a bunch of rookies, you cant beat it, even more so if you get the third auto finest moment card.

2010 Five Star and 2010 Exquisite

If you have a ton of extra paypal sitting around, these two super high end products are a blast. The cards look amazing, its all on card, and you are going to have fun even if you miss the mark with your box. Not the same can be said with NT and the copious amounts of shitty single jerseys, stickers and large price tag. Both of these sets are on card 100%, and for the most part, each box has a booklet card. Although I am not the biggest fan, the booklets sell crazy go nuts, and with a strong rookie class behind it, these products deliver. Lastly, the inscriptions available in both sets are worth the price of admission alone, pray you are lucky enough to pull one.

2011 Leaf Metal

I think this set is completely underrated in both look and content. The checklist is legit, and the cards look very nice with airbrushed uniforms. The boxes are relatively inexpensive for 4 autos, and many of the boxes have at least ONE good card. I would not hesitate to buy this stuff if you don’t mind unlicensed cards, and I think it will continue to be a guilty pleasure of a lot of us during this timeframe.

What to Avoid COMPLETELY

2011 Prestige

Horrible design work on the base rookies and really terrible inserts are going to ruin this product. It has already dropped below 60 bucks a box in a lot of places and that is only the beginning. For that sixty bucks you are getting a few two dollar jersey cards that look awful, and autographs from a VERY deep checklist of undrafted players. Yuck.

2011 Elite

This set has to be one of the worst looking sets of the last few years. Combine photos, big white boxes for the autographs on horizontal cards, odd placement of serial numbers, huge “ROOKIE” text and weird looking name banners. Then you see the on card autograph set and a lot of people get that vomit taste in their mouth. Again, prices are still very high due to it being the first set with post-premiere photos of the main rookies, but its all the other stuff that is going to drop this product through the floor. You wonder why Panini wants a minimum advertised price for their junk? This is why. Content is awful, design is awful, and that is made worse by the fact that this set wouldn’t have even been passable back in 2004.

2010 Certified and Limited

More awful design work and TONS of redemptions. When I say TONS, I mean that most of the cards you want are not live. All of the good 1/1s have been pulled or given out as redemption replacements, and again you are left with 2-3 shitty jersey cards and an auto. Don’t waste your money, even if the prices continue to bottom out. That is, unless you want more Taylor Price and Marcus Easley autos in your collection.

2010 National Treasures

One of the worst super high end products ever made, and it still costs about 200 bucks above what it should cost. You get 1 rookie auto, 1 okay auto, 4 single jersey cards, 1 patch and maybe a rookie patch auto. The rookie auto patches look and are great, but you might as well just buy the ones you want instead of trying to hit it big. Many collectors have mercilessly ripped this product for content and value in the boxes, but I have been more concerned with design work and stickers in a product that costs this much money. It’s a lazy attempt at a beloved product, save your cash or buy Five Star.