In yet another display of suspension brute force, the NFL has brought down the hammer on Tom Brady and the Patriots after a long investigation. Considering his recent large role in the hobby after a Super Bowl win, this isnt great for business. Im not really going to add my scorching hot take to the mountainous pile of stale hot takes, but I do want to look at this from a hobby perspective and what it might mean in the hobby for both Tom Brady and others. Spoiler – he is still one of the best to ever play the game.
Tom Brady’s Hobby Legacy
I dont think this changes all that much in the long run. He might take a small hit in this new age of “what have you done for me lately” collecting, which is insane in its own right. As mentioned above, with the fact that he just won a Super Bowl, this should be one of his brightest hobby moments, regardless of the mob bearing torches and pitchforks in the over-sensitive media.
Here is an idea of what is going on right now:
It should also go without saying that Brady has had some really awesome cards for the first time in years. Both Topps and Panini have gotten in on some recent signings, which has led to cards from all sorts of high end products. If you are a Brady fan, this is your best time in almost a decade.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s NFL Starter Debut
As mentioned above, this is the one time where someone in Jimmy’s position can shine. He WILL play well, a la Matt Cassel, and that will make his cards go through the roof. You can almost bank on it. That wont change that Brady will be back and he will be better than ever after the first 2-4 games depending on appeals.
There are still some high prices on Jimmy out there, as well as some good buys:
Being that Tom is near the end of his career, he will eventually retire, but that doesnt mean Jimmy is a lock to take over the reigns. By then, Jimmy may be near the end of his rookie contract, which means he may be on his way out of Boston. New England loves to draft QBs and then trade them for value, but this situation IS a bit different than before. They really like Garoppolo, and they will likely want the time they have spent developing him to pay off. Maybe that's why his prices have been relatively steady for most of the year.
That means if you are planning to buy in, you had better be prepared to sell by week 3, or hold for a few years while Brady rides off into the sunset. Im not sure I would be willing to do that in this hobby environment.
Either way, I would actually advise against selling now, as the Pats system is just too good to expect Jimmy to fall on his face. He will win at least 2 of the 4 games, and that’s if he even plays 4. No guarantee Brady isnt back earlier, but it will spike his cards even if the appeal is granted.
As with any prospecting situation, you have to be ready to slow play things. Dont get trigger happy, or you could end up missing out like I have on so many different occasions.