Update: 2015 Contenders Draft Picks Previews

I thought that there was a huge opportunity to do some major damage in draft sets for Panini, especially with Upper Deck being forced out of the college game. Its an exclusive that may not make them a bunch of money, but it could bring more people to their products if used correctly. Instead of using retouched photos like their competition will have to use, they get the full breadth of the spectrum, including non-rookie players. Now that we are getting more of a clear look at their flagship product, its safe to say that they fucked up big time.

We knew early on that Prizm was going to be stickers. Its par for the course with that set anyways. We also knew that Contenders was going to have stickers for the older players – which has always been the way Upper Deck approached this part of the year as well.

To this point, in order to compete with other companies, they needed to match the success of these on card examples:

2015 Upper Deck Inscriptions Jameis Winston Auto RC

2015 Upper Deck Inscriptions Marcus Mariota Auto RC

2015 Leaf Ultimate Draft Amari Cooper Red Auto /5

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Melvin Gordon Red Refractor /5

Even though other smaller sets have featured some really nice cards, Panini did not change course on their publicity. They refused to address whether or not the rest of the rookie stuff would be on card to compete with the other companies who have already put out some pretty awesome stuff. Today, it looks like Contenders is going to be stickers as well as Prizm.

So, lets lay it out there:

  • New license
  • New opportunities
  • Old design?
  • Sticker autos?
  • Competition looks better?

How do you not put your best foot forward in this situation? How do you not want to start your brand off right? This is an exclusive license that could add some flavor to your products in the coming years and instead of going balls out, you want to use an old design and sticker autos? Cmon. Really?

I mean, Upper Deck's Inscriptions product will lay waste to this shit, and Leaf Trinity is going to make both look like inferior turds. It has been a great looking product for years. If your competitors and their tiny operations are going to make you look like bush league amateurs, that is not the way to start your line. If the license’s start date puts a limitation on the way your products can be built, adjust your calendar or dont risk the biggest brand in your arsenal. Horrible decision making.

Personally, I would say Elite Extra Edition is ripe for this territory. Its a new brand for football, it doesnt damage other brands if it tanks, and Elite Football can be pushed back to allow for a buffer zone. I dont get Panini’s plan here one single bit.

If you are looking for a draft product to buy, I would highly suggest Upper Deck Inscriptions or Leaf Ultimate Draft. Both have great looking cards with on card autographs. Dont waste your time and money on a set that offers nothing special. In less than 2 months, there will be pro products on the shelves, and college stuff will drop. If you have to open something, at least find a box that offers unique content. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will have THOUSANDS of sticker autos all year. These ones from Contenders and Prizm wont even make the top 100.

Topps Archives Bringing Will Ferrell Autographs to Collectors

Last year, Archives gained national attention with cards from the Major League cult classic film being added to the product. There were autographs, base cards, and a lot of fun, as many people wanted to complete the set to reclaim nostalgic feelings from their youth. The Charlie Sheen cards were the gems of the collection, as he was deeply ingrained in the national consciousness after a loud exit from his TV show.

Here are the Major League cards:

2014 Topps Archives Charlie Sheen Major League Auto 7/10 Parallel

2014 Topps Archives Tom Berenger Major League Auto

2014 Topps Archives Corbin Bernsen Major League Auto

2014 Topps Archives Chelcie Ross Major League Auto

This year, Archives is looking to take advantage of another situation, this time with Will Ferrell’s Spring Training escapade. Personally, I am more excited about Ferrell’s cards in Archives this year than I was about Major League in last year’s product. Obviously my sophomoric sense of humor plays very much into his comedic wheelhouse, with Talladega Nights and Anchorman being some of my favorite movies to watch on repeat.

From what Topps has said, there will be 10 autograph cards from each of the teams he played for during that day in spring training, and based on collector reaction, there are quite a few people who will be lining up to get one as soon as the product is released. Hell, I might be one of them.

If something like this will be happening in Archives each time the set comes out, Im on board. Celebrity content like this tends to bring people out of the woodwork, including National Focus if the card(s) are topical enough. Back when DLP was still making baseball, their "fans of the game" set was a huge draw for people who wanted to collect cards of their favorite celebrity baseball fans. If you remember back to 2009, Upper Deck actually had Kim Kardashian sign for a set named UD Icons during her relationship with Saints RB Reggie Bush. Much like Sheen, it got a lot of attention. This is right up that alley.

Bottom line, is that this is a really cool idea, and I am very interested to see how it plays out.

SCU Go Live Report: 2014-15 Immaculate Basketball

I have always liked what Immaculate has done in terms of the look and feel of the set. Although I HATE HATE HATE the name of it, the design and content has always been great. I have actually mentioned on a number of occasions that the set feels more complete than Flawless, especially considered the difference in price points. This year's set looks to be another in a line of nice products, and Im curious to see how things shake out.

Here are some of the big hits posted so far:

2014-15 Immaculate Kobe Bryant Jumbo Patch Auto

2014-15 Immaculate Andrew Wiggins Jumbo Patch Auto

Bearing in mind that Panini has had a ton of problems recently, im just as interested to see collector reaction to another high end product being released by a company who many have lost trust in. Being that this is a different sport, I dont think the impact will be as large, but they have had problems in basketball up until this point.

I also think it should be mentioned that few card shops were able to order this product alone. Many were forced to take on cases of previous crap that Panini or the distros could not sell. Although this has been done MANY times in the past, seems like kicking a bit harder when so many stores are already down.

Either way, the cards do look really nice. There are auto patches and autograph cards that I would love to have in Football. The jumbo patch autos are easily one of my favorite basketball cards I have seen Panini put out in a long time. The swooping lines and big patches are a concept that has been in Immaculate since the beginning, and this year's definitely looks better than any previous.

The acetate autos are also extremely nice, a card that has been a big part of the set’s success in the past. New shadow box acetate styles do a great job of making the player and autograph pop. I think that this type of card is quickly becoming a focus for Panini based on what we have seen in both of their main sports, but this is the first time I have really seen it be VERY successful. Previously, I have seen poor to moderate in the designs.

Aside from the cooler parts of the set, there is a new element to Immaculate that has made appearances as Panini’s new type of go to card design. The Black Paper autograph is all over this product, and much like its predecessors, it is more of a train wreck than ever. It has replaced the manu-patch autograph as Panini’s ugliest type of card, and I just cannot understand how or why it was created. Because they are pre-produced with a paper area for the player to sign on card, it makes little sense at all. Why not just have them sign the stock? There is ZERO fucking reason to add a swatch of black paper, when it is just as easy to do it with the regular signature area. Panini is fucking dumb like that.

Overall, Immaculate is still about the wow factor for Panini, and I think they have succeeded in many ways this year. However, with recent events at play, I cant help but feel like the dark cloud over their company remains. Deservedly, of course. I dont follow Basketball much, but I know that high end is where its at. Without good high end products, your basketball brand is even further into the red than it already is. Immaculate is good, but not great in that respect. It still feels like a modest rip off of Exquisite, and as long as that exists, Panini will always play second fiddle int the hearts of collectors.

New BGS 10 Black Label Stirs Up Old Conflicts

I have never been one that has put any stock in the grading process business. I dont like graded cards, I dont make an effort to seek out graded cards, and I think people that pay astronomical prices for high grade examples, are really not seeing the whole forest or the trees. Of course, my feelings on the conflict of interest that it presents, or the human element involved in the review, have no impact on the rest of the hobby. Grading means a lot to a lot of people. It is arguably the only reason the Beckett media group still exists in a lot of ways.

One of my biggest gripes with grading is the above mint standard that BGS has perpetuated. No longer is a mint card the top valued condition available. Since the advent of BGS, now cards can be Gem Mint or even Pristine! No matter that the difference between gem mint and pristine is so small that any card could easily occupy both conditions. The subjective difference between many grades holds no bearing with most, as some collectors stake hundreds or even thousands of dollars for that difference. Well, now they have a new level of mint to chase. BGS has since released the all pristine Black Label graded card.

Here are some examples:

2003-04 Topps Chrome LeBron James RC BGS 10 Black

2014 Topps Chrome Johnny Manziel Superfractor Auto BGS 10 Black

2014 Bowman Chrome Kris Bryant Auto RC BGS 10 Black

2014 Topps Platinum Odell Beckham Auto RC BGS 10 Black

In case you are wondering, instead of just grading a card as a Pristine 10, a black label card is a pristine card that has all 10s in the subgrades. It adds another level of the chase for some people, and many of these cards are getting some ridiculous prices as a result. I understand the need for collectors to display the vanity that makes our hobby what it is, but this just seems excessive.

Grading was originally created so that someone buying a card before actually having it in hand could see a quantitative representation of the condition prior to purchase. This was in a time where digital cameras were insanely expensive, and the resolution of the photos were minor. Now, with each cell phone camera having such a high capability to take ridiculous pictures, grading has become the standard by which an anal collector can pick out the top examples in condition for each individual card. It has become a collection organizer in so many words.

My argument lies in the conflict of interest that exists in grading – being that not only does Beckett price and sell graded cards, but they also have a reason to provide preferential treatment to top customers. Even more than that, the human element at play only speaks to the subjectivity of the process. The difference in a 9.5 vs a 10 is so small, that whatever is decided becomes the bible. That is, unless it is unfavorable. There is a community of collectors that buy up “undergraded” cards, crack them out of the cases and resubmit them for a higher grade. The levels of success are so high, that people have made a living out of it.

However, if a 9.5 ever was graded a 10, there is no one that would be stupid enough to crack it out of the case and resubmit it just to make sure it really was the grade BGS said it was. Now, if that was a 9.5 that was graded a 9, it would be approached with a completely different process. Grading is a business, and a great one at that. It has transferred over to all sorts of industries, and taken hold as well as it has in cards. That wouldnt happen if it werent a crazy profitable business model. Many sets are produced with BGS in mind, mainly Chrome, as the entire product’s viability depends on its potential grades.

Similarly, there is no regulatory body to ensure that grading companies arent acting with their own best interests in mind. Not that I would expect there to be, but who is to stop them from going out and rewarding their best customers with better grades? At this point, because the reputation is already established, a few bad apples would do nothing to spoil the bunch. They could churn out half grades better treatment very easily, and no one would be able to call them out.

Again, adding this new “Black Label” does nothing but present a further departure from what the grading process should be about. Obviously, staunch supporters of the “objective” process will fight me to the bitter end on my feelings, but I find too much implied conflict to even come close to changing my feelings.

When you see that a Michael Jordan Fleer RC BGS 10 is worth almost 1000 times the value of a BGS 9.5, its easy to see why the conflict exists. There is too much power in the grade itself, and very little in the card that sits in the slab. That is wrong to me. Very wrong. Adding a new element to that is beyond unnecessary.

2015 NFL Draft: Top Picks and Hobby Outlook

Now that the draft is over, it seems as though the year is ready to start. With the top picks now aligned with their teams, we can finally get a good idea of what the value looks like for the main players of the year. Although some were going to be obvious, there were a few very big surprises. Here is a breakdown of where I think things ended up hobby wise.

Jameis Winston – #1 Overall, Buccaneers

I think this was expected as soon as the combine was over, and Winston’s pro day was ironed out. The Bucs didnt surprise anyone by picking him, which only helps to solidify his value for the year. It should also be mentioned that the Bucs’ jerseys are FILLED with some awesome patches, something that could provide a bit of a value boost for some of the crazy logos. Although Tampa doesnt necessarily have legions of collectors, Winston being a QB and the first pick will offset that.

Prices so far:

2015 Upper Deck Jameis Winston SP Authentics Auto

2015 Leaf Ultimate Draft Jameis Winston Silver Auto

2015 Upper Deck Jameis Winston SP Auto Variation

Marcus Mariota – #2 Overall, Titans

I was shocked when the Titans didnt trade this pick. I thought someone would pay their ransom, as Mariota’s stock continued to increase as the draft moved closer. Although I wanted Philly to eventually win the sweepstakes for the sake of the team value that comes with them, the Titans making the pick doesnt hurt TOO much. Like Tampa, the Titans have some great patches on their jersey, and should play nicely for the sword logos that are coming this year.

Prices so far:

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Marcus Mariota Superfractor Auto 1/1

Marcus Mariota Signed Hesiman Trophy Replica – PSA Cert

Amari Cooper – #4 Overall, Raiders

Although I think this is a very good team to draft a top guy, Cooper is going to be a top guy regardless of his team. I think he will have a better rookie season than AJ Green or Julio Jones, and Derek Carr has proven to be a serviceable starter. Not bad in terms of the hobby, as there are lots of people who really like the Raiders, even if I am not one of them.

Prices so far:

2015 Upper Deck Inscriptions Amari Cooper Red Auto RC

2014 Exquisite Amari Cooper XRC /125

Kevin White – #7 Overall, Bears

After trading away Brandon Marhsall for peanuts, White looks to be a good pickup for the Bears as his replacement. He wont have the same initial production, but he could develop into a top guy. The Bears have a ton of collectors, so White should be a big pull in 2014.

Prices So Far:

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Kevin White Superfractor Auto 1/1

2015 Leaf Ultimate Draft Kevin White Helmet Auto /5

Todd Gurley – #10 Overall, Rams

As shocked as I am that the Titans didnt trade out of number 2, I am equally as shocked that someone would draft a RB at 10 in this day and age. Very weird. Gurley will be an interesting case all year coming off his ACL injury. He may not get quality carries until a few weeks in, either, so be on the watch for spending too much on his cards early. There will be a lull as the season starts and he doesnt get the ball. Thats the best time to buy.

Prices so far:

2015 Upper Deck Inscriptions Todd Gurley Gold Wave Auto

Todd Gurley Game Used Autographed Georgia Gloves

Devante Parker – #14 Overall, Dolphins

Great pick by the Fins here, as Parker is a great player to fill the gap left by troubled Mike Wallace. Of all the guys in the reciever class this year, im most interested to see what happens with Parker. I wanted the Vikings to pick him up, but they went defense. Hobby wise, the Dolphins have a following, and their fans will be all over him.

Prices so Far:

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Devante Parker Auto Superfractor 1/1

2015 Upper Deck Devante Parker Die Cut Auto

Melvin Gordon – #15, Chargers

Two backs in the top 20 is nuts to me. That being said, there is not a better situation for Gordon this year, especially because Rivers is great, and the team isnt terrible either. Running backs need help from the passing game early in their career, and the more room they have the better they do.

Prices so far:

2015 Upper Deck Melvin Gordon SP Authentics Auto

Melvin Gordon Signed Sports Illustrated – PSA Cert

The draft is always one of my favorite events of the year, and though there wasnt as much action as I thought there would be, it was still a blast. Now onto the Rookie Premiere in late May.