Baseball, like every other sport consistently delivers new talent that impresses with surprise. Guys like Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were expected to be superstars from day one, and no collector ever expected to get them at bargain basement prices. Unlike these superstars, Matt Harvey and Chris Davis, two players who have had incredible starts to their seasons, which have led to ridiculous speculation of their cards.

Recently, the Matt Harvey Bowman Superfractor auto sold for a price usually reserved for guys like Harper and Strasburg:

2010 Bowman Chrome Matt Harvey Superfractor Auto 1/1

His other cards are also selling for ridiculous prices reflecting his recent dominance on a top MLB collected team.

2010 Bowman Matt Harvey Red Refractor Auto /5

2012 National Treasures Matt Harvey Rookie Auto Patch /25

2006 Topps Aflac All American Matt Harvey Auto

Chris Davis, who has hit more homers this season than many expected him to hit in his entire career, has done exceptionally as collectors have caught on. Like Jose Bautista a few years ago, Davis has been around for a while, which has led to a little bit less potential where buys would occur. This is a very small sample size for a guy like this, and it begs the question of whether or not this production will continue.

2008 Bowman Chrome Chris Davis Red Refractor /5

2007 Elite Extra Edition Chris Davis Status Auto 1/1

2006 Bowman Chrome Chris Davis Blue Refractor RC

I have never bought into hot starts or even great seasons without consistent production in baseball. Too many things can change that prevents the player from catching on and staying on top of the mountain. The same thing is present in football, but there just seems to be more variables that lead to a successful baseball career in a much more skill oriented sport.

Similarly, with pitchers like Harvey, there are always arm injuries that many players cant avoid no matter the situation. Strasburg hasnt even been in the league for five years, and has already had one major surgery. During that surgery, his value plummeted. Even though its back and better than ever now, its a ticking clock for these guys. One can only imagine what is possible if a guy can perform at the top for a long time, without blowing out an elbow.

It takes a lot for me to get going on a guy, as baseball functions unlike any other sport. Mike Trout was an aberration in 2012, and now that 2013 has come along, he has slowed down a bit. He was literally unstoppable before. Sustained superstardom in baseball is rare, and many collectors are just trying to get on the train before the tickets are too expensive to buy.

Even though we waited three days to see two of the biggest prospects of the draft finally picked, it looks like it worked out pretty well. We saw Geno Smith and Mike Glennon go on day two in the second and third rounds, but top prospects Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley were still waiting for a home. Matt Barkley was especially concerning, as early on in the year, he was considered a top 5 pick. Now, here we are on day three and he finally comes off the board.

2013 Leaf Metal Draft Matt Barkley Superfractor Auto 1/1

2013 Upper Deck Matt Barkley Auto Letter /15 SSP

2013 Leaf Metal Draft Ryan Nassib Red Refractor Auto /5

2013 Upper Deck Ryan Nassib Auto RC SSP

Interestingly enough, had Barkley not gone back to school, he would have EASILY been a first round pick in 2012, but decided to take his chances with huge talent in Griffin and Luck leading headlines at the draft. Now, after struggling through his senior season, there were more reasons NOT to take him early, than to waste a pick on a potential project. The Eagles felt strongly enough in said potential to trade up and make him the first pick of day three, and that actually is a great thing. Nick Foles didnt show enough during 2012 to have solidified the starting job, and with a new coach, Barkley will get a legitimate look.

Across the division in New York, Ryan Nassib had been waiting since being projected number 9 to Buffalo in the first round. He slid and slid until eventually being picked up by the hometown New York Giants. Obviously, the only way he is going to see the field is if Eli Manning gets injured, which isnt an ideal situation, but he will get seasoning and possibly make his mark as a backup before testing the waters after a handful of years on the bench. Ryan Mallet was in a very similar situation in 2011, and has been the talk of potential trades all week long. Once he is available after next season, he should get a shot somewhere. He has carried value as a backup all around, thanks to this assumption, and there is no reason to believe Nassib wont be the same with all of the talk prior to the draft.

Other notable He has carried value as a backup all around and Marcus Lattimore found a home too – Franklin with the Packers to accompany Eddie Lacy, and Lattimore with the niners. Its likely that Lattimore wont play this year as he rehabs his gruesome knee injury, but Franklin should get a few carries in the Packers’ committee system.

This is always a bittersweet post for me, because it means no football until August, but the rookies were likely not going to be the talk with the class being so weak. Hopefully we see what they have early on, as 2013 products are not looking good right now.

Yesterday was a slower day for top picks, with only Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cordarrelle Patterson coming off the board. Almost immediately on day two, many of the big names of the draft were selected, including a few to bigger teams with lots of collectors. This ended up being a pretty good day for collectors, as the teams will command as much value as the player’s talent in some of these cases.

Geno Smith

Taken by the Jets in the early part of the second round, Geno Smith becomes the likely starter day one for New York. The problem is that his options at receiver still seem about as thin as ever. The Jets were primed to add a receiver or two in the third round, but opted to fill gaping holes on the offensive line instead. I guess you need to protect your QB if you are going to have any shot at completing passes to your non-existent receivers. THe best part is that he went to a team with a ton of collectors, instead of a team like Buffalo or Jacksonville. That is a VERY good thing.

2013 Leaf Metal Draft Geno Smith Green Auto /10

2013 Upper Deck Geno Smith Auto SSP

Manti Te’o

Like Smith, Manti had a very long wait but eventually ended up going to San Diego, which looks to be a great fit. The Chargers are a popular team, but not popular enough to make people want to collect a second round middle linebacker. Again, Te’o could have fallen a lot further, so it was a great thing for 2013 hobby values that he didnt fall further than he already did. He is one of the top autos in the class because of his infamous situation, and this pick should stop the bleeding a bit.

2013 Press Pass Fan Fare Manti Te’o Auto 1/1

2013 Leaf Metal Draft Manti Teo Red Refractor Auto /5

Eddie Lacy

There were a number of running backs taken off the board before Lacy, which was a really bad situation for the guy believed to be the top back in the draft. Lacy ended up with the Packers, which is bad for his likely playing time in their committee system, but good for team affiliation collecting. The Packers are one of the most popular teams in the league, and pre-season values should be bolstered by his arrival in Wisconsin.

2013 Leaf Metal Draft Eddie Lacy Superfractor Auto 1/1

Montee Ball

Selected to Denver in a bit of a surprise move, Ball should add some color to the Broncos running game. Willis McGahee is likely on his way out, and Hillman isnt the answer. With his skills to run between the tackles, I would guess that Ball is going to get the rock a bit in 2013. I dont think he is even close to an elite talent, but going to Denver over a place that already has an established runner is a good thing for his cards.

2013 Upper Deck Montee Ball Ultimate Auto

2013 Press Pass Montee Ball Inscription Auto

Keenan Allen

I was pretty high on Allen before all the injury talk started, and going to a place with a history of a great passing game. Rivers struggled in 2012 for a number of reasons, but he also had very few options to throw to and no running game to speak of. With Allen being added to the mix, its likely he is going to see significant time on the field and likely some good throws. That is not the case for many of the guys drafted this year.

2013 Leaf Valiant Keenan Allen Auto /10

Day three is shaping up to be a strong close to the 2013 draft, and I cannot wait to see how the rest of the guys like Ryan Nassib come into things.

Yesterday was a big day for every NFL fan, and Upper Deck aimed to pile on with the first previews of 2012 Exquisite. Since the loss of their NFL license, UD has remained relevant and continued producing products under their CLC license with NCAA sports. For 2010 and 2011, Exquisite remained a high end chase for a lot of collectors, and this year should prove to be similar.

Here are some of my favorites from the last few years:

2011 Exquisite Aaron Rodgers UD Black Signatures

2011 Exquisite Colin Kaepernick Auto Logo Patch RC

2010 Exquisite Sam Bradford Rookie Auto Patch /75

2010 Exquisite Jerry Rice Auto Retro Rookie Patch

Although I believe the 2011 design was superior to 2012, these cards are far from ugly. I think my only design complaint (and a nitpicky one at that) is that the ghosted transition area below the player climbs too far up the picture, making the photo look like a bust instead of portrait. Overall the cards continue to be on a high level, and I dont think that there will be any complaints – OTHER than the fact that Andrew Luck doesnt look to be live in product. I was hoping they would wait to release this product until the horrible Press Pass exclusive expires, but I guess they are moving forward with more redemptions like 2011.

My other complaint is that the jersey swatches look like they will be mirroring the swatches used from 2010 and 2011. They have commented that NCAA jerseys are not available in the same way that NFL jerseys are available, but I am of the ilk that this fact isnt necessarily true. They just arent available at the same COST as they are in the NFL. Instead, UD has resorted for three years now to using screen printed jerseys that look to be purchased from bargain retailers, in the idea of saving money as much as possible. One can hope this money saved was rerouted into the auto checklist, but that has only been partially true in previous years.

I would say its a worthwhile investment to put some money into purchasing jerseys that at least RESEMBLE patches, as the screen printed jerseys just look cheap. Of course, event used is event used no matter which way you slice it, but at least give me a whiff of the way it used to be.

The rest of the design for the set is really spectacular, with my favorites being the Lustrous autos that are previewed below. These are usually card that utilize a special stock and composition, but came up significantly short last year. This year, they are back and better than ever, and I am excited to see how the live ones turn out.

Even the other autographs look great, and I dont think we have seen a full representation of what this set is really going to be. I sincerely hope the Dimensions Shadowboxes are back, as this unique ideas was a huge favorite of mine last year. Upper Deck is sure to have surprises, I am interested to see how this all comes to fruition, as Exquisite is still very relevant, even though they dont have an NFL license.

There has been a ton of talk over the last few years that show this year in football to be a weak one. With such strong classes in 2010, 2011, and 2012 for the hobby, its obvious that collectors are a bit spoiled. That being said, there IS a lot to worry about this year. With no QBs taken in the top 15 and Tavon Austin being the only player at 8, there is not much to get excited about.

Here are the top guys that should come across the stage so far:

2013 Upper Deck Auto Letter Tavon Austin

2013 Upper Deck Ultimate EJ Manuel Auto RC

2013 Upper Deck Auto Letter Ryan Nassib

I love what Tavon Austin brings to the table, as I have said before, but WRs are never the type of guys that draw value in the hobby. In fact, its gotten to the point that if you arent a QB its tough to have sustained value. Geno Smith was the biggest skill name coming into the draft, and he wasnt even the first QB picked. EJ Manuel is not a guy that should command huge value this year, especially considering the team he plays for is a relative black hole for collectors. I am literally shocked that the Bills took him over both Smith and Nassib, but this is a pick that no one really expected all the way around.

There is still value in Eddie Lacy and Manti Te’o, but much of the value they eventually receive will be from their teams they are drafted to. They just arent headliners like we had last year. I think there is a lot I would be worried about if I sell a lot of football cards this year, because there is nothing good I can see coming to sell boxes until the season eventually starts and the stats come rolling in. With so many products coming out pre-season its going to be a very brutal start to the season.