Recent Group Break Scam Showcases the Gross Underbelly Once Again

Group breaks are quite the polarizing topic in the hobby these days. Some see them as an opportunity to bring more people into a hobby that is fraying at the edges. Others see it as a ring of carnies that serve to hook gamblers into spending money on impulse. There is reason to believe its both, but when one exposed as a sham, the whole model comes under fire. In fact, I would argue it restarts the whole conversation on whether or not this hobby really is as seedy as some people think it is.

Without diving deep into the group break model as a whole, the scam is pretty easy to understand. On Blowout, a member ran breaks where nice hits from community boxes were switched out with lesser hits he had purchased from members and opened in his own personal boxes. Im not quite sure how they were able to do this on a live feed, but that is why the good scammers never get caught, I guess.

This person was caught pretty much red handed by a member who was able to match serial numbers, cataloging a card they sold and seeing that card “pulled” from a pack in a group break by this individual. From the vantage point presented, it looks like this guy has been running the scam for a while. As we have seen COUNTLESS times in the past, it takes an event like this to start the referendum on how at risk group break participants can be in any given break.

Let me say I am not looking to scare people away from group breaks. I like group breaks. I participate in group breaks. There are a lot of good people out there. They are not unicorns, believe it or not. That being said, when I participate, I UNDERSTAND the inherent risk implied with such an odd transaction. Consider this: we are literally handing money to someone for them to spend with our trust and open cards we would normally open ourselves. There is trust there. So much trust that I dont think people truly understand that there are some really shitty people out there who will exploit it until they get caught.

If you do not know that shitty people are everywhere in this hobby, you cant swing a dead cat at a card show without hitting someone who has been scammed or run the scam themselves. Whether its fake patches, fake autographs, or just overall immoral behavior, its everywhere. YOU are the only person who can protect YOU, and that’s that. I have chided publications like Beckett for trying to present the hobby as this wonderful utopia where every company farts rainbows and cries holy water, but its not. In fact, it might be just as disgusting a place as ever. The only thing is that the internet has removed the face from the perpetrator. They become usernames on a forum or a handle on twitter.

Arguably, this is where group breakers are the exception, as many present themselves as characters and personalities. They want you to break with them over their competitors, so they come up with some of the most annoying catchphrases and animated graphics to make you feel like they are worth the trust you are implying on them. Its the same concept as any on air personality, especially the ones like we see on QVC and other shopping networks.

My dad imparted some wisdom on me when I was little, and I have hated myself each time I have failed to heed the warning.

“If there is money to be made, there will be someone out there who will try to take advantage of the people who are unwilling to educate and protect themselves. The wolves will ALWAYS eat the sheep.”

This applies so much to this hobby that it isnt even funny. In fact, I would say its one of the main reasons I started this blog back in 2007. I wanted to be the voice that people could use as a reminder to look at things with a different perspective. The hobby isnt a place where good people dont exist, they are out there. But at the same time, if you cant recognize the wolves, you will be eaten with the rest of the sheep. Trust me on that.

I remember back to when the 2007 Rookie Premiere autograph forgeries first started to hit the market. I received A LOT of criticism for saying the cards werent real. No one could fathom that real cards made it into the hands of a person who would singlehandedly bring down an entire year’s worth of this set. To review, the cards were blatantly forged. So blatant that Topps was forced to serial number the cards starting in 2007, only after I pestered them mercilessly. BGS stopped grading the cards out of fear, and rightfully so.

I also remember back when group breaks were in their infancy, and an asshat decided it was a good idea to not show all the cards in a break when the grainy video was clear enough to everyone that he was holding back a big hit. Stories like this are everywhere, and that’s just the start of it.

A few years ago, someone on blowout convinced people to send him thousands of dollars to participate in grab bags that looked to be loaded with high end goods. When he walked away with the money, everyone freaked out.

The main point, in case I havent beat you enough in the face over the last 800 words, is that trust is a luxury. If you cannot live with the consequences of someone exploiting that trust, its time to move on. I will say, there are a few people I trust implicitly in this hobby. However, it took more than a fancy website and some stupid catchphrases for me to put that trust in their favor. Years and years worth of back and forth has led me to understand what I believe to be trust. They could be mass murderers for all I know, but thanks to those many dealings I have had, I can go to bed at night knowing that I can live with the consequences if they turn out to be assholes.

If there is one lesson we should take away from this, it cant be that a big scam is the only thing that gets us talking about education and prevention. This the same with any tragedy out there, and thankfully these hobby scams never take any lives. There is a reason people are so green to the idea that people will fuck them over without a thought. Its because they dont have many warnings at play that serve as educational checkpoints. Sure, there are voices that have remained constant out there, but I will say that even I have backed off talking about this at a regular pace. It literally happens so frequently that it is too taxing to continue being the white knight to the 10 people that still read my blog (9 if you take my dad out of the mix).

I will close with this. Education is the only defense against the ever growing intelligence that continues to evolve within the scams of our community. They will ALWAYS be a few steps ahead because money is the root of collecting. When money is involved, things get nuts. You will not be able to stay ahead of the crazy fucktards that sit in front of their computer screens and find ways to exploit the stupid. The only thing anyone can do is learn from what they see, operate every transaction with a skeptical eye, and never trust anyone so much that they lose that safety net. If you can make that work, you will be fine.

SCU Go-Live Report: 2015 Topps High Tek Baseball

Back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, I was more interested in music and unsuccessfully fitting in at school than collecting sports cards. During that time, the hobby was a hodge podge of gaudy inserts that for lack of a better term, were better suited for the front of a trapper keeper than a modern card product. High Tek is based on that time in the hobby, which is probably why it is lost on me.

Here are some of the cards up so far:

2015 Topps High Tek Mark McGwire Pink Proof Auto 1/1

2015 Topps High Tek Omar Visquel Auto

2015 Topps High Tek John Smoltz Gold Auto /50

2015 Topps High Tek Noah Syndergaard Auto Gold /50

Dont get me wrong, I love on card autos on acetate technology, and that is the only reason why I am even slightly intrigued by this set. I mostly stayed away from the set last year, save a box I bought well after release, but the way the cards look in person really do have a certain quality about them.

The “bright horizons” cards are pretty awesome in their own right, and I believe there are autograph versions as well. These feature the skyline of the city the player is from, and they look REALLY cool. Cards like this werent really in the product last year, as they went with retro designs from the original set.

This year’s set is definitely trying to recapture some of the popularity from last year’s product, which includes a sister set being released in Football to boot. I like that the autograph checklist looks pretty strong, and that Carlos Correa will again have hard signed cards in the set. He will be paired with the usual suspects in Trout, Bryant, and the rest of the Cubs young battery, which should make for some fun.

It also doesnt hurt that the price tag isnt enormous for the one autograph per box, especially when you consider that some of the parallels can be pretty valuable without an auto. I might try a box or two just to see what this is about, yet I cant help but feel this is probably better aligned for a person who was my age during the turn of the century.

Under Market Value: Players That Deserve More Hobby Love

Right now, the NFL “recent release” card market is about as soft as I have ever seen it. Unless you are dealing in proven champions and iconic rookie cards from the last few years, the market just isnt performing that great. The wheeling and dealing of top performers has left football in a lot of ways. This is troubling with some of the exciting rookies and recent stars that have been playing out of their mind.

After seeing a few guys blast off in the first few weeks of the 2015 season, there might be some indication that things could be turning around. Even more impressive is that most of them are not QBs, which have become the only position left that holds any value. All of these guys are still massively undervalued to me.

Devonta Freeman – RB, Falcons

The Falcons have had a renaissance under Dan Quinn, highlighted by stellar play from their defense, and of course Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones. During his rookie year, Freeman sat relatively unused behind Stephen Jackson and Jaquizz Rodgers, but this year, he has seen the bulk of the carries. He has 7 TDs so far, and leads the league in just about every category.

Much to my amazement, collectors have yet to catch on:

2014 Immaculate Devonta Freeman Rookie Auto Patch

2014 Topps Chrome Devonta Freeman Camo Auto /99

2014 Contenders Devonta Freeman Cracked Ice RC Auto

Todd Gurley – RB, Rams

There really hasnt been an answer of how to stop Gurley since the Rams have put him into full rotation. In his last two games, he has rushed for over 140 yards each, giving us a good picture of why he was drafted so high. Although he has yet to find the endzone, his production has been nothing short of amazing.

Collectors have been high on him for a while, but his give up signature has kept prices lower:

2015 Topps Todd Gurley Auto 1987 Super Rookie /25

2015 Donruss Elite Todd Gurley / Marshall Faulk Passing the Torch Dual Auto

2015 Inception Todd Gurley Gold Signature Auto 25/25

Andy Dalton – QB, Bengals

There has been no QB that received more criticism with their new deal than the Red Rifle. He has shown that he has been worth the money and then some, putting up MVP caliber numbers so far. Because of his lack of success in the playoffs, collectors still havent bought in, but they might have no choice but to take notice if the Bengals keep playing the way they do.

Here are some of the nicer Dalton cards:

2011 Topps Chrome Andy Dalton Atomic Refractor Auto

2014 Flawless Andy Dalton Jumbo Patch Auto /15

2014 National Treasures Andy Dalton Notable Nicknames Auto

DeAndre Hopkins – WR, Texans

Look, I understand the Texans havent done so well on the scoreboard. That being said, Hopkins has played like the Andre Johnson of old, with some insane numbers. Like Gurley, collectors havent put much stock into his cards because of what his role was and his give up autograph, and I am sure that might start to change now that he is playing better than most of the top flight receivers out there. Might not be much of an increase until the Texans start winning, but he is having himself a season, regardless of Ws and Ls.

Check out his cards:

2013 Topps Finest DeAndre Hopkins Jumbo Patch Auto Pulsar Refractor /25

2013 Contenders DeAndre Hopkins Rookie Ticket Auto

2013 Crown Royale DeAndre Hopkins Silhouette Patch Auto

There is no guarantee that these players will continue playing at this high a level, but for most of them, you can buy them cheap enough that it wont matter. I rarely use the word investment with cards anymore, but if you are looking to pick up a few new PC players, these are a good bet.

SCU Go Live Report: 2015 Gridiron Kings Football

Let me start by saying I was pretty impressed with Diamond Kings baseball, despite the fact that it was unlicensed by MLB and stocked to the brim with sticker autographs. At 65 bucks it was a fun break that had some really nice looking cards. When I saw they were going to try it with Football, I was intrigued, but ended up horribly unimpressed with the sell sheet. Now that I have seen it live in action, my unimpressed reaction seems to have been the right one.

Here are some of the cards already up:

2015 Gridiron Kings Marcus Mariota Relic Auto RC

2015 Gridiron Kings Ben Roethlisberger Stat Kings Auto

2015 Gridiron Kings Brett Favre Sovereign Signatures Auto Patch

2015 Gridiron Kings JJ Watt Stat Kings Auto Red Parallel

When all is said and done, Gridiron Kings will be as forgettable as any other product Panini has put out, save Donruss. Its odd, because I think Donruss was probably the best product they have put out this year. As for this, not so much. Hey, at least its not as bad as Spectra though, right? It cant be that bad can it? Well, maybe if they put the wrong player on the wrong card.

What will make this so forgettable is that this is ANOTHER Panini product without on card rookie content, adding to a laundry list of shitty products that might have been a tad better if Panini had put some effort into the planning and exectuion. Similarly, the design work features some of their typical facepalm inducing fails, including ignorant idolization of illigitimate illustrious idiocy in action. Huge typefaces and fonts, awkward posed photography, and alliteration based set names are all in play for this set, and that is just PURE Panini.

This could have been a great looking product that used a lot of great looking designs to succeed where baseball could not. Instead its just another throwaway. Dont even get me started on the Super Bowl autos, which seem to be wasted on a product like this. They dont even fit, and yet they are included because Panini obviously knows nothing in this set is really worthy of buying a box.

People have asked me more times than I can count on my hands and feet why the Football Market is so soft. Sets like this are a good indication of why the situation looks so grim. Uninspired examples of football sets, coupled with lack of execution will always lead to poor sales. To think, this is in a year where Panini doesnt even have to build that many more products to replace the pure shittiness of sets they canned last year. I cannot wait to see what they do when they have to come out with a new one each week next year to hit their minimum guarantees promised to the NFLPA on a deal they dramatically overpaid for.

MLB Playoffs Bring New Superstars to the Hobby

We are two games into the playoffs and already we have seen what some of the new big names of the hobby can bring. Some of these guys have been around for a while before catching fire, while others are brand new. This will happen all post season, so be prepared for some major spikes in value that may never be replicated again. Right David Freese?

Jake Arrieta – P, Chicago Cubs

ERA has become one of those stats that people arent valuing as much these days, much like Wins. Arrieta’s feat of having an ERA of less than 1 after the All Star Break is still impressive regardless. Last night, Arrieta was lights out, as expected, and led the Cubs to a complete game shut out in arguably the most important game in the last 10-15 years for his team. Sadly, he has had NO licensed autographs, period. His rookie autos are all from Elite or Just Minors, and that sucks. Either way, the cards have started to come up even further than they already have during his Cy Young consideration.

Here are some of the top cards:

2008 Bowman Sterling Jake Arrieta USA Auto Relic

2008 Bowman Chrome Jake Arrieta XFractor RC BGS 9.5

2007 Elite Extra Edition Jake Arrieta Auto RC

Kyle Schwarber – C, Chicago Cubs

Amid the monster hobby campaign for his teammate, Schwarber had a STELLAR rookie season. Monster in some senses. Last night, his two hits put the Cubs ahead, with 3 RBIs and a 2 run HR. This guy is looking to be one of those prototypical power hitters, and at a position that rarely has those types of players. His Chrome autos are already up over 100, but there could be room for a higher ceiling if he plays this well in the next few games too.

Unlike the others on this post, he is well represented:

2014 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Auto Red Refractor BGS 9.5

2014 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Auto Refractor RC

2015 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Purple Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

Dallas Keuchel – P, Houston Astros

There were a handful of guys in the AL that had a season like Keuchel did, and his performance in the Wild Card game was a showcase of exactly how awesome he has been playing. Not only was he on short rest, but he still managed to go out there and shut down a VERY potent lineup. The Astros could have a long stretch of great seasons ahead of them if Keuchel and the rest of their young core continues to light it up. He only has a few licensed autographs, but like Arrieta, has no Chrome auto RC. Really too bad in that situation.

Here are his top cards:

2009 Bowman Chrome Dallas Keuchel Gold Refractor RC /50

2014 Topps Supreme Dallas Keuchel Auto Base

2015 Diamond Kings Dallas Keuchel Auto Dual Relic

There will be plenty of time for more heroes to emerge, and like Allen Craig and the like, they could only shine bright for one night. For a hobby built around nostalgia, that might be all it takes.