The last week has been a very interesting one for the people invested in WWE Prizm. There has been a ton of new eyes, commercials on WWE programming, and sales that most people in the WWE collecting bubble would never have expected to happen five years ago. As fun as it has been watching this all explode, it hasnt been as well received in the community, an expected side effect of what Prizm has done across a few new brands. As a result, we have seen trolls trying to pick off auctions with fraudulent bids, as well as constant bashing across the facebook groups and twitter communities populated by old school gatekeepers.
Here is the thing, unlike previous brand releases for Prizm, WWE was really one of the first with a VIBRANT (yet very small, comparatively) community. Most of those community members exist outside of the mainstream hobby, and in a wholly different fashion than any other niche area. I know this personally because of how stark of an adjustment it was for me back in 2017 when I got into WWE cards. Its weird to see people actively root against the success of something that I had been hoping would happen for years, and to a degree potentially softening a market a bit earlier than expected.
I think its time to correct a few misunderstandings, because the more people understand what is going on, hopefully they can adjust their expectations and improve their attitude towards a burgeoning community of people who could make their experience better.
Misunderstanding #1 – All Prizm Cards Will Be Valuable!
Lets start here, and make sure people get an education on this situation first and foremost. There will be a lot of Prizm cards that are valuable, and will stay valuable beyond people’s wildest dreams. That being said, not all aspects of Prizm will be valuable to a point that is all that different than previous WWE products. The good thing here is that there is a ton of historical information to show how the tentpoles of the product will hold up wax prices above what would be reasonable for the readily available stuff.
More importantly, the WWE rules kind of apply across Prizm too. If something is rare, its going to have some good multipliers attached to it, even the less desirable stuff. We have already seen a lot of indicators of this with the rare low tier wrestler final values. If something is desirable to the general collector population, its going to carry some good value too. Cards of the top tier guys are more desirable, and their stuff will likely hold more long term. If something is RARE AND DESIRABLE, that’s where the records are set.
If you think about the tiering of wrestlers, it will be much easier to see how all of the different aspects of the product will perform. Expecting guys like Cedric Alexander to carry the same potential as someone on the top tier was never a consideration, but because of the rarity factor, he could have some cards that will sell above where any of his other cards have ever sold for. Pointing to low tier readily available cards dropping in price isnt a good indicator of overall potential. Prizm has a GIGANTIC checklist, and the WWE hobby is still too small to support the huge prices that the trolls are using as fodder for their hatred.
Misunderstanding #2 – This is All a Pump and Dump!
Right now, WWE Prizm boxes and FOTL Prizm boxes are selling at release higher than any product has sold for in the history of WWE. Im not putting Transcendent on this list because the product was never designed to be released in a retail setting. For a flagship set, its insane to think that a box could sell for over 1000 dollars, let alone multiple thousands in the case of FOTL single boxes.
Automatically, there seems to be a lot of talk of a pump and dump because the prices are so foreign to the people who have been involved with WWE for a long time. Not only that, but pointing to singles and other high priced aspects of Prizm as a pump and dump is running rampant due to similar sentiments. I think its worth discussing how this is all playing out, because its hard to run a pump and dump upon release, especially in a market where things are still settling.
First, in regards to wax price, Prizm definitely has something that most WWE products dont usually have – VOLUME. There is a lot of Prizm Hobby, enough to satisfy demand, plus some. The difference here is the addressable market, because for the first time you have large volume breakers looking to dive in headfirst. Its a debut edition, and they know they can move slots. That means that unlike with other Topps products, retailers, dealers, and breakers are all battling for the same allocation of product. Hobby was originally priced at 700-850 at pre-order, and has climbed as high as 1300+ in some areas. Most of that is because there were so many people who wanted to get their hands on product, and reorders were getting tougher to fill at the original price. That isnt a pump and dump, its just demand vs market cap.
Similarly, for FOTL, the case volume is just nothing. There might be 100-200 cases total, and from what I understand, very few of them are actually going to be hitting the market. They will either be held as the demand vs supply continues to increase, or have already been ripped. For a pump and dump, there isnt close to the amount of volume that could be spread out to accomplish the goal.
As for the singles themselves, as mentioned above, the market has already started to soften – as it does with every Panini product. For other sports, the first week of a product always sells 10-25% above the settled market price. After a while, common cards settle as the major collectors get their goods and move on.
Because of this situation, the easy to find stuff of mid to low tier wrestlers were never going to hold value the way that they did out of the gate. Even less so for tested veterans who have long established their place on the card. There is no prospecting potential there, and WWE success is more determined by booking on the shows rather than the intrinsic talent of a player. The people in control of the outcomes determine the viability of a superstar rather than the superstar themselves. In other sports, the athletes have full control over their potential performance.
Misunderstanding #3 – These Base Parallels Shouldn’t Sell For More Than the Autographs!
Like we have seen with most of the misunderstandings, the lack of familiarity of the way Prizm parallels perform in the market is driving some really, really bad takes. Unlike WWE products of the past, Prizm investors and collectors dont chase the autographs. They chase rare parallels of the top stars and grade them for their PCs. That doesnt mean the autographs dont hold value, but they arent the focus. Im sure you have heard this for a long time, and Im sure its a foreign concept if you havent experienced it first hand. For people that have operated in the major sports for years, this is a standard expectation.
The good thing about this product is that Panini still loaded up the autograph checklist to satisfy the previous group of collectors as much as possible. For some of the NBA products, autographs lack so much chase, that Panini almost forgets about them. You really have to go to other configurations to find a focus on the content that hobby wasnt designed to drive.
Most people are looking for a reason for this phenomenon, and to be honest, its buried in years of the NBA market trending towards insane values. A lot of it speaks to how much people have become attracted to the color that tends to pop in all Chrome stock sets. Bottom line, this is the way it is, and the more you have experience in Panini’s universe, the more experience you will get around the new world order.
Misunderstanding #4 – None Of These Record Prices Are Actually Paid For!
This one is easy to debunk, especially as Card Ladder and other investment value tracking apps have started to verify sales. For a lot of the people out there, seeing this astronomical prices is a foreign thing to witness as frequently as we have over the last few days. For those who dont want to accept that the tide is turning in WWE becoming part of the periphery for the mainstream hobby, calls of “NO WAY THOSE BIDS ARE REAL!” will be their banner to fly.
In reality, there are bids that arent real, and those examples will pollute the real sales that are going down left and right. I have confirmed that the the top sales of Prizm so far – mainly the rare 1/1 blacks of some of the main second tier guys are completed and real. Similarly for some of the sales of main gold prizms for top tier guys like Austin and Undertaker. Unfortunately, trolls want to instill a sense of fear that no sales are real, and chuck fake bids to buy cards and back out post completion. We saw this with the five figure sale of a John Cena Color Blast, and a few others. Because misinformation is such a valuable tool for people rooting against this era of WWE cards, its clear they are looking to shake the foundation of perception as soon as they can.
The thing is, most of this isnt unique to WWE. This is part of what happens when a hobby niche goes mainstream. The difference is, will there be enough work by the gatekeepers to shake a small niche part the hobby? Its actually more possible because of the vocal nature that these people have. Their cadre of sycophants are more motivated to protect their interests than in other areas of the collecting universe, especially with a lack of understanding about how this rising tide will float all boats, rather than just some.
The long and short of this is that there seems to be more and more battles being fought over WWE than what we saw with F1, UFC, and Marvel, as the community of WWE collectors prior to the boom was more entrenched. That’s a problem. Not only that, but the major sources of WWE card information aren’t on board with Panini’s presence, save a select few. Having such a large vocal presence constantly undercutting any success with reckless speculation and misinformation does have an effect, and some of that comes with personal motives in tact. Hopefully the large community of Prizm investors and supporters provides a counterbalance.
Misunderstanding #5 – Prizm’s Success is Guaranteed!
In all my posts, I have said that the historical evidence of success is very much available for sets like Prizm, and it is solid enough to bank on at certain levels of the product. That doesnt mean that the market is primed for a rocket like F1 or even UFC, and it might be unfair to have expectations that the greater hobby community is ready to latch onto pre-determined sports entertainment the same way they will latch onto mainstream sports like MMA. There are too many differences between the worlds of entertainment and sports, although as I have mentioned – the star power in WWE far exceeds anything most other sports can provide.
Walking down the street, the super-majority of people you would stop would be able to tell you who the Rock is. A large majority have familiarity of who Stone Cold Steve Austin is. WWE is a household brand name, and guys like John Cena, Brock Lesnar and the Undertaker have transcended Wrestling as a whole. On the flip side, those that could tell you who was in the main event of Wrestlemania has dropped significantly since the early 2000s, and I would argue its not going to go up from here.
WWE recently published that social media engagement for Wrestlemania was larger than the Super Bowl, but I dont think anyone would be naive enough to believe that the implications of the biggest Sunday of the year outweighs that of Wrestlemania by a significant amount. Right now, Wrestling seems to be in a limbo area of social consciousness, and that means that the long term success of a set like Prizm might be more limited than that of a UFC equivalent.
Clearly, everyone needs an exit strategy, and no one should be playing with money they dont have. However, I think the performance out of the gate has already exceeded expectations to a point that the early adopters are already sitting on a nice war chest of money to play with. There are also some lower profile whales who are sitting in prime position for a long haul of hoarding product.
On the flip side, the lower portion of the product does need the support of the existing collector base in a way that I dont think is there. So many of the people assumed they would be priced out that they havent even bothered to try to engage. As long as that happens, the champagne room VIP area will do fine, but the rest of the product will suffer.
As someone who has been one of Panini’s most vocal detractors over the years, it should be telling that I want this to be successful. I want Wrestling cards to get their time in the sun. Even though I have had to be creative to participate to date, I have also come to terms with the fact that the success of this market will have a positive impact on my own PC. I hope people can see through the bullshit that is being spewed from both sides of the argument to find a place where they can have fun too.
