Its Going To Be A Long Couple Of Months…

Over the next few months, there will be 10-15 products that will have post premiere stuff, but are still before the start of the NFL season. If you consider that august is the preseason start and september is when things get going, there are quite a few chances for you to pick up NFL uni stuff from your draft target (if you have one), or new stuff from last year’s target. With 10-15 products coming out, which one is the first one to be worth your time?

Elite looks to be next on the calendar for Donini products, and I guarantee you that this is not the first product to be worth your time. Although you get 4 hits per box and one auto usually, the cards are usually just Prestige Chrome. The only redeeming part of Elite is the Passing the Torch Autos, which are astronomical pulls for a good one. Add in that the checklist is as bad as Prestige for the RC autos, and you have a really bad situation for box breaks. See, before the premiere, there is not as many seeding schemes that favor the guys who were there. Most of the time, you will end up with a second day pick or free agent as your box hit, rather than a premiere guy as your box hit. For 100 bucks, you can bet your ass that you would be better served to wait.

Then you move onto Heroes and Philadelphia for UD, which in my opinion are good sets, but not necessarily the top of the pile for RC auto collectors. The difference between Heroes and Philadelphia and the other products from Donini, is that both the UD products will have on card elements, with Philadelphia being the best of the three based on the info we got from the premiere. Philadelphia is the product featuring the players’ crazy inscriptions that really have not been present before on a card. Instead of just a plain sticker on a rookie card, these will feature more than I have ever thought could be possible. That alone puts UD head and shoulders above Donini. Now, most of you know I am partial to UD in terms of design, creativity, and pretty much everything, and this is why. They take things like a normal autograph, and make it better than one would expect. I used to think that stickers were okay as long as they were done well, but this puts things in a different light. Stickers are still fine, but they will never compete with stuff like inscribed nicknames on card.

Yet, Im not sure that Philadelphia is that one product you should hold your breath for, as I am not a fan of retro sets. It will be the best of the few that have come out pre-premiere, but SPA and Exquisite will still be king. Of course, who wants to wait six months before buying anything? In that vein, you may want to wait for Topps Chrome to come out, as long as it doesn’t have those awful stickers all over the curved auto space. That would suck. At around 60 bucks a box for base RC cards that are actually worth a little bit, you really cant go wrong with buying a couple. Since I started collecting, Chrome and Finest RCs have been my cards each year to get, and that has continued. One of my favorite Peterson cards is still the Chrome auto I have, despite the fact that my Exquisite is a clearly better card. Its just my personal and nostalgic connection to chrome, and that looks to be continuing this year.

I think as collectors, we need to start coming to terms with the fact that 100 bucks for a box with 3 hits and an auto isnt worth it any more in this economy. I know that I can no longer justify buying boxes when I can buy the singles I WANT for less than the price of a break. Much like millions of people in America, my disposable income has been cut, and I no longer have the means to bust and bust. Add in the fact that there are really only 5 products each year that I look forward to, on a calendar of 25+, and you should see the problem. Right now, my products are SPA, Exquisite, NT, Topps Chrome, and Leaf Limited, yet last year many of the Donini products let me down. For the first year in 3, I did not buy any Limited, it just wasn’t as good in huge base box form. I don’t have the money to buy a box of Exquisite or NT, but we have busted a few of each on the site. Chrome I bought about 5 boxes over the course of the year, and SPA I bought 2. This year could be drastically different, though group breaks on the site could change that.

Even though Beckett seems to think that the blogs are cesspools of misinformation and are only good for connecting with other collectors, I think that the commentary is necessary for people looking to plan out their year. I read what they said about early SAGE offerings, and I definitely don’t agree with any of their coverage on products so far. They tend to set a horrible expectation that these products will hold through the year, though every single fucking person knows they wont. Don’t waste your time on Prestige or Elite, and watch yourself on Classics. Absolute is usually pretty fun to bust, so you may want to wait for that. As for UD, Philadelphia will be great as a popular retro set, however it may not hold its value on the rookie side of things. Early sets rarely do, hopefully this will be an exception. If last year’s calendar is any indication of the longevity of sets, SPA will be the first bang of the year, and it wont come until December. Ultimate, NT and Exquisite will come at the end as well, and those are the only ones to REALLY hold the year in the minds of collectors. Keep that in mind.

Ghosts of Collecting Future

Sometimes you just know things are not going to turn out well. When the economy hit the fan, I knew that the card industry was in trouble. Some industries have the clout to power through it, like video games or porn, but card collecting doesn’t seem like enough of a money maker to continue at its pace before the drop. Im also not convinced it was all the fault of the economy, as it seems as though the industry was getting way too far ahead of itself with what it was delivering. Players are now wanting more money than ever for their participation, and I dont think many people thought about what that would do when the going got tough.

That isnt the only large problem in our midst, however, as the mindset of the consumer may have adjusted to prices TOO much to give back enough to get it where it was before. What I mean is this. As of now, singles are at their lowest prices ever, and there is much to be had for the collector that still has disposable income. I mean, I just got a Peterson auto for like 50 bucks, and it wasn’t a bad one. Considering that I had 50 bucks in ad revenue from the site, this was a freebie that I couldn’t pass up. The scary thing is, what happens when the economy comes back around? Do we go back to the before prices or will people think, “Man, I saw this card go for fifty bucks a few months ago, I am not going to pay 150 for it right now.” Even though the pre-drop value may have been at 150 bucks, and would be able to sustain that with a now returned economy, the completed auction page may prevent it from going back to normal.

Of course, super high end cards should be back to normal, and I am not talking about cards that are $250-1000, I am talking higher. Mainly the ones that really never drop in value, but just fluctuate a little here and there. You know, the Jordan RCs, the Mantle cards and other vintage, and a lot of the cards that people will ALWAYS want. But, BUT, does a rise in super high end translate to a snap back for cards below that? Im not really sure, and I am beginning to think that if one of the big three dies out, Upper Deck being the front runner for some reason, they wont snap back. Then, when you have stocked up on cards that you knew to be WAY below their pre-drop values, where does it leave you? Not in a good place, right?

Now, I am not saying to avoid pulling the trigger on those deals out there, because some of them are just too good to pass up. However, before you go nuts, you might want to think about your own mindset once things go back to normal. Would you be willing to shell out twice what you are paying for the card at this moment once things change in your discretionary funds? Hell, for the first time in decades, Americans are saving money for fear of what is to come. Who’s to say that they wont continue to do so? If this type of recession happened once, what’s saying it wont happen again? All of these things will contribute to the value of your collection, so make sure to keep your head on a swivel while you are buying, IF you are buying.