Category Archives: scrubs

Top Ten Rookies Who Will Kill Your Box – My Take

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Not all rookies are created equal, especially those at the rookie premiere. Year in and year out, there are a good portion of guys who go to the premiere that never even have a shot at panning out unless there is some miracle involved. This year was no exception, especially with the fact that the ENTIRE Giants’ draft class was invited, and a total of NONE of them did anything this year. Meanwhile, there are a few rookies that always rise above, and though they are hard to predict, sometimes you can see it coming a mile away.

Over on cardboard connection, they posted a list of ten rookies with the potential to ruin a box. The problem is that only a few of them have the potential to be a box hit in something like Exquisite or SP Authentic. On top of that, I don’t agree with most of their rankings. My list takes a different perspective, especially with all the different products centering around the guys from the rookie premiere as the main hit in the box.

10. Derrick Williams – Lions

Derrick Williams is a bad player on a bad team. He has been relegated to KR status, and rarely catches anything but a whiff of Calvin Johnson’s ass when he runs by the sidelines. The reason he is on here is more because of his terrible signature, which looks like a cross between a Kanji character and the mark of an illiterate immigrant.

9. Darrius Heyward-Bey – Raiders

Hey bey has problems, more so with the supporting cast than with his actual talent. He was drafted WAAAAAAAAY too high, and he doesn’t have a QB, but that doesn’t mean he is without talent. On the other hand, his production didn’t even show a hint of greatness, and he was outshined by Louis Murphy all year. The main issue is that Hey Bey is sometimes a level 1 rookie, meaning he could replace a case hit of someone like Sanchez or Stafford. That alone adds a whole new level of crap to this entry.

8. Mike Thomas – Jaguars

I bet you have no clue who he is, and I don’t really know either. He is on a team that doesn’t go to their receivers much, and Sims-Walker is the big dog there when they do. The main reason I put him on this list is because his box hits are almost always redemptions, so you are fucked in two ways when you pull him.

7. Brian Robiskie – Browns

The Browns suck. They suck bad. Robiskie is one guy who has little to no shot of being a focus with Massaquoi and Cribbs around, and that doesn’t help much with his value. He barely played this year, and the QB situation doesn’t help much either.

6. Andre Brown – Giants

Another Giant, another horrible addition to the rookie premiere cast. Brown played a little this year, but it was only because Jacobs and Bradshaw were hurt. Once both are back at full strength, he will go back to being towel boy.

5. Juaqin Iglesias – Bears

Yes, the Bears did well with Johnny Knox, but this guy wasn’t as lucky. In fact, he is such a downer that I don’t even know enough about him to write something. He would be higher, but the Bears’ starting receivers are Earl Bennett and Devin Hester. When you have a team like that, anything is possible.

4. Rhett Bomar – Giants

Bomar is the third Giant on this list, but not the last. As a QB, he always has a shot at being good, but when you play behind Eli Manning, you arent going to get much of a look. Add in that his talent is around the level of a Jared Lorenzen, and you have an equation that will lose you 500 bucks in an instant.

3. Javon Ringer – Titans

I cant tell you how frustrated I was when I pulled Javon Ringer in my SPX box. He couldn’t even do well as a kick returner. That’s how bad he is. Plus, he plays

2. Jason Smith – Rams

Offensive line is the least valuable position on the field, and sadly 2009 was the second year we had a tackle in the mix at the top of the draft. Then when you see his signature it gets worse and worse. Smith is everywhere this year, and though he seems to be a nice guy, he shouldn’t have been at the premiere.

1. Ramses Barden – Giants

I have no idea why this guy was even put on the list for the premiere. Players have to be voted on by each company and for some reason he was the fourth Giant added to the list. He went to a weird college (Cal Poly) and has little to no prospects of doing anything in the league, and yet, he is on every single card for every single set. You want to know how to kill an Exquisite buzz? Pull his crap like we did in the SPA break.

Honorable Mentions

Brandon Pettigrew – Lions
Tyson Jackson – Chiefs
Deon Butler – Seahawks

Of course, these are my opinions on the matter, feel free to add your own. Really, any time you pull any of these guys you are in trouble, so it wont matter where they are on the list.

Could A Scrub Be The Most Expensive Chrome Auto Of The Year?

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Demetrius Byrd played his college ball at LSU, was picked late in the 7th round of the NFL draft, and Topps couldnt even get a uniformed pic of him for the cards they produced. Crazy enough, the odds of pulling his auto out of chrome are MORE THAN the odds of pulling a Superfractor, thus making this cardthe most expensive scrub auto ever made.

Now, this could easily be a mistake, but Byrd’s odds are listed at 1:7000 packs for his autograph. To pull a 1/1 superfractor, the odds are one in just under 3700 packs. Im guessing that if the odds are true, Topps must not have gotten many signed stickers back from him, therefore limiting the amount produced and inserted. There were enough to put him on the checklist, but so few that the odds are closer to one every 24 cases. Based on that, you can expect that the amount of Byrd’s total signatures are less than any other player ever produced in a Chrome set. Crazy.
Factor in that Topps Chrome is one of the most widely collected sets of the year, and this autograph may be worth more than most of the other players from the past few years. Rarity drives price in these cases, and saying this card is Rare is an understatement.

They Cost How Much?!?

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Recently, one of the readers of SCU emailed me about an idea for a product based on the idea of eliminating scrub autos. He was concerned about the amount of value one gets out of a box in relation to the price one pays for said box, a feeling that many of us have on a regular basis. In most cases, when you pull an auto of a backup’s backup, you wont get more than a dollar in return if sold. Considering that these types of hits litter the products year round for all three companies, he wanted some justice in his wax buying.

What most people dont understand is just how much players actually charge for the autographs that the big three put into their products. Its this type of misunderstanding that lead to people’s poor attitude about busting wax as a way the companies are screwing them out of their money. Although the attitude IS justified, there really isnt a way to fix it without ridding products of autographs completely in some cases. We all know that wouldnt fly with most of the collectors out there, myself included, so there is a resulting high profile dilemma on what is happening in terms of signatures.

Just to give you some of the information, player autographs are one of the most expensive parts of a product. You already knew that, though. What you may not know is the degree that this cripples parts of some releases. Players like Emmitt Smith and Joe Montana charge so much for their autograph, that they have almost priced themselves out of many products. I have heard figures as high as $225 per card, but nothing lower than $150 for every signature they sign. How crazy is that?!? Think about it for a second, and then think about how many players like that are necessary for a checklist to be considered viable. Even younger players like Adrian Peterson, Matt Ryan and Reggie Bush also charge a ton, with cards costing the companies as much as $150 a piece just to have them sign.

It doesnt end there, unfortunately for us. Even for rookies that will most likely never play a down, card companies are forced to pay them more than you would expect. I have confirmed figures as high as $35 per card for the lower tier of the rookies who attended the premiere, a figure that surprised me to no end.

What all of this leads to is higher prices on boxes and more and more scrubs being used to fill out checklists. Why? Because its required by the league to have X% of the set being rookies, and because its too expensive to do it any other way. There are always exceptions like Paul Hornung and other older people who charge very little, but the majority of the athletes want a ton.

This also factors into stickers versus on card, as I have been told there is no difference in price paid for the auto. Im guessing this is the main reason that Upper Deck has pretty much done whatever they could to avoid stickers, as it seems like more of a waste to pay for an auto if it isnt directly on the card going into the pack.

As long as this is forced to continue by the players, wax prices will never drop as long as they contain autographs. Personally, I am happily able to accept the trade-off due to my love for autos, but a portion of the older collectors have sworn off wax altogether because of it.

Im not sure what the future holds, but I dont think it will ever be like it was, especially in terms of price. With the subjects of the cards becoming more like primadonnas every year, its not always the fault of the people who produce the products. Yet, because of a lack of info that is out there, most of us just blame them anyways. Maybe its time to show us what’s really going on.

The Football Card Expiration Date Discussion

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I was going through a lot of my cards after seeing the reaction to yesterday’s clutter post, and I started to see a trend with my piles of cards that I actually managed to keep over the years. Most of my clutter was from 2006 and 2007, years in which I thought buying a lot meant getting a lot in terms of prowess in the hobby. Of course, I was new to football cards then, and I didn’t really understand what it meant to buy with a good head on your shoulders. I have opened packs of 2006 and 2007 SPA with all cards still in tact, I have chrome up the ass, and I may have even found an autograph or two. The thing is, by now, you really know which of these players are going to be someone and who was a bust or never-has-been. This led me to thinking about where should your line end?

Many people in the clutter post here and on FCB have said that they like to keep cards in case someone turns into Tom Brady or Tony Romo. That is a good idea, however, how long should you wait before cleaning out the closet? Its there an expiration date on someone’s NFL (lack of) career? Some people would say no, that each player has a chance until he retires, a la Kurt Warner or someone like that. Warner was done and gone, but came back to lead his team to another super bowl, something that has happened maybe once or twice in the last 30 years. The thing was, he had already come to the forefront of the league once, players like Omar Jacobs and Ingle Martin, QBs from the 06 rookie premiere still have yet to arrive. In fact, Jacobs isnt playing anymore, I don’t think, and Ingle Martin has played 2 snaps in one game for the Packers and Chiefs. I think its time to let them go from the millions of cards you have stashed away.

When it comes to the bottom line of NFL careers, most rookies last less than 3 years in the league. I would even go as far as saying that for the 2007 rookie class, this year is their hurt locker. That means that if you have sets its one thing, but another if you just have cards accumulating for no other reason than to say you have a lot of them.

Lets face it, as collectors we are prone to clutter issues, and its become essentially important in this day and age to stay realistic. If you cannot give your pile of 2006 rookies because there might be a gem in the bunch, you need to reevaluate your priorities. The odds are that there is no one from the unknown part 2006 rookie class that hasn’t already achieved their full value. Think about it, even Brady and Romo were in the spots to make splashes by year 3. Same with Ryan Grant, same with all the other no-names to get starting positions. After year 2, its make it or break it.

That rule also says that by the end of year three in the league, we need to do some summer cleaning of our own. Look at Drew Stanton and John Beck, QBs that were thought of as great prospects to build up from the ground. Both have been drafted over by newer RC QBs, and Beck may not even be with the Dolphins anymore now that Chad Pennington and Chad Henne have taken his slot. Add in Pat White and things get nuts. Now, you could say what about “Player X” he came around to be a star in year 5 or year 6, to which I say he is one in a few thousand. Its not worth cluttering your house for a bunch of maybes. If you are focusing on the maybes, you will miss more of the sure things than you can imagine.

This also means that for 2007 products, busting packs doesn’t have as many options anymore. Quinn, Russell, Lynch, Peterson and Johnson, have all pretty much achieved a lot of what they are already going to achieve, leaving the prospectors to head to newer years to find their targets. Normally this wouldn’t be an issue, but for some of the 2007 class, it means that the cards will be lowering in value for good as people start to give up. We should too.

The new addage should be that by the end of year three, if the player is not in a position to have a starting job with potential, its time to let him go. Maybe this will teach the card companies from churning out 15,000 autographs each year of players drafted in the 5th round and lower, or not drafted at all. It’s the prospector mentality that has perpetuated the boom in scrub autos, even going as far as having entire products devoted to them. The line needs to be drawn somewhere, and with our basements busting at the seams every day, its easy to see where we need to stand on that line.