Does the 2013 NFL Draft Spell Disaster On the Horizon?

Now that we are approaching the last handful of products from the 2012 NFL rookie class, it should be easy to deduce just how much this year has meant to the different card companies this year. Without a doubt, this was THE most valuable rookie class since 2004, if not ever, and that is saying a lot considering what happened in both 2006, 2010, and 2011. When looking back, and seeing that 2004 had so many guys that are now superstars, 2012 filled those shoes well.

From the likes of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, combined with Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris, I cant remember the last time a class had this many top performing guys with big price tags. When measured against the worth of previous classes, I dont think there is any question as to the awesome results we have seen.

Even though Panini has been publicizing how high the Andrew Luck contenders ticket auto 1/1 is selling for, it is unlikely for the sale to be completed. Its still at least the most valuable contenders ticket of all time when it will eventually sell, but that is beside the point. The Andrew Luck Finest Superfractor Auto 1/1, and the Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1 Holy Grail both broke the modern card sell value ceiling earlier this year, which means that he could claim the title of the most valuable rookie quarterback ever. Funny enough, I dont think he even had the best year, as Russell Wilson definitely put on a show in Seattle, and RGIII won Rookie of the Year in Washington. Their cards are similarly pushing the envelope with huge 1/1 prices that are frequently selling for thousands.

Now that we are coming upon the 2013 NFL combine, its easy to see that this class to be drafted is not going to be on the level of any class from the previous few decades. A highly touted defensive draft, there are not any game changing guys that I can see driving value the way we have seen over the last three years. Even the defensive talent isnt exactly the type of players that will be franchise makers, and that is bad for business in the card industry.

There are a handful of Quarterbacks that will likely be drafted early, but their cards will not even come close to guys that we saw in 2011 and especially 2012. You have Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, and Matt Barkley, but these players may only end up being serviceable guys. They just dont carry pre-draft value the way that others have. That means we wont get a Cam Newton type of mega value, probably not a Sam Bradford type of mega value or maybe even an Andy Dalton this year. Because it is almost REQUIRED to have a quarterback tent pole to drive up product value, this could be a disastrous situation.

As the draft gets closer, more players should emerge, but I would batten down the hatches and prepare for a rough 2013. With RGIII blowing out his knee, there might not even be much more room in 2012 to sustain the need to break boxes. Here’s to hoping something works out.

6 thoughts on “Does the 2013 NFL Draft Spell Disaster On the Horizon?

  1. $38k? please! Graded Mantle RC’s dont go for this price. If panini thinks this is serious they need a reality check.

  2. I was wondering when you were going to address this. The lack of cardboard talent for this upcoming year is unprecedented. The card companies are going to have to come up with some fresh innovative ideas to keep collectors involved. If we complain about value in products this year you would have to be insane to even touch a 2013 box.

    BTW have you touched on how Panini’s exclusive deal with Geno Smith will affect Topps?

  3. It doesn’t affect topps. No exclusives in the NFL, it’s just for the sake of selling autographed memorabilia, not for cards.

  4. I have a grand idea. How about products with autographs, on card, from retired NFL stars and current NFL stars? Whoa. Mind = blown.

  5. Actually, 2013 could be a boom year for HOF and veteran auto collectors. In order to justify their ridiculous box prices, the card companies will have to find some way to add value and entice buyers. Let’s hope that we see some great veteran auto content!

  6. Looking forward to the 2013 NFL Draft and the products that will follow, I feel Upper Deck will have a more productive year that Topps or Panini. With players like Collin Klein, who had great college carrers but their ability to translate their ability to the NFL questionable, I just see collectors wanting to go with Upper Deck products. I am not much of a college collector, but just for arguments sake, I would rather have an autograph card of Klein in his college jersey than him featured in an NFL uniform, just because of his accolates at the NCAA level. Also the 2013 draft will also be an invesment year, similar to the 2007 draft where it was more of a defensive heavy draft, aside from Top Tier players like Peterson and Calvin Johnson. Lynch has made a comback in Seattle, if you look at 2008, Upper Deck didn’t even make Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Felix Jones, Jerod Mayo, and Chad Henne Non-Short Prints. Instead some of the 25 Short-Prints; Sam Baker, Brian Brhom, Limas Sweed, Justin King, Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Keith Rivers, Kenny Phillips, and Andre Woodson, leaving only 4 higher profile offensive players like Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Strewart, Chris Long, and DeSean Jackson. Just my .002

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>