Handicapping Candidates For 2013 NFL Offensive ROY

Because rookies are such a big part of the NFL hobby, the rookie of the year award is one that carries a huge weight in determining value. Almost more so than it should. A rookie with top potential that is also named ROY will get a bump in value because of what the award represents, and this year might be one of the first where there isn’t a clear player that will take the crown. Here are my picks.

Eddie Lacy

Packers players are automatically more valuable because of the size of the collector base, and Lacy is a front runner for ROY because of his production on that offense. Even though he had some injury concerns that prevented even more success, he was a main reason the Packers were able to put themselves in a position to win their division. That should garner significant support for his candidacy, and might be the reason he wins. Collectors have already made him one of the top valued guys and I have to agree. He had a great season all things considered.

Autos have spiked as of late:

2013 Topps Strata Eddie Lacy Shadowbox Relic Auto

2013 Topps Platinum Eddie Lacy Blue Refractor Auto Patch /25

2013 Ultimate Collection Eddie Lacy Booklet Auto RC

Verdict: High likelihood of winning

Keenan Allen

With the Chargers making the playoffs, Allen automatically gets extra consideration. He had top production of all the many rookie WRs, including 8 receiving TDs and 1046 yards. A great season, no doubt, even more so because he wasn’t even one of the first guys picked. It helps to have a great QB to get you the ball, and Allen took advantage of it. Collectors haven’t really bought in yet, but the Chargers aren’t exactly a widely collected team. His value is well under where it should be, including the potential he has for future success.

Here are where his autos sit:

2013 Topps Chrome Keenan Allen Camo Auto /99

2013 Topps Triple Threads Keenan Allen Triple Patch Auto

Verdict: High likelihood of winning

Cordarrelle Patterson

Because of only 1 year of college ball, it took Patterson a VERY long time to learn how to be effective in the NFL. However, his last six games were nothing short of awesome. He is one of the only players in NFL history to have multiple TDs in KOR, REC, and Rushing, and has become an impact player since everything clicked. Collectors for the Vikings are fighting over his cards, and with a great QB, he could be a superstar. He would have been the only rookie pro-bowler if kickoffs still were part of the game. A slow start, combined with a horrid Vikings team will hurt him.

Here is what I have been chasing all year:

2013 Topps Chrome Cordarrelle Patterson Auto Black Refractor /25

2013 Inception Cordarrelle Patterson Auto Booklet Jumbo Patch

Verdict: Moderate likelihood of winning

Le’Veon Bell

Injuries kept him from getting on the field right away, which definitely limited his stats overall. I think Bell put up some great numbers, with multiple TDs in a few games. Steelers collectors are about as rabid as they come, and it has resulted in some really nice prices for Bell, where other RBs are still quite low. I don’t think he is going to end up winning, but he definitely deserves some consideration.

As I said, Bell has a lot of people looking for him:

2013 Topps Finest Le'Veon Bell Auto Patch Gold Refractor

2013 Topps Chrome Le'Veon Bell Auto Patch /50

Verdict: Moderate likelihood of winning

Giovani Bernard

I cant believe I am almost done with this article, and I have yet to mention a QB. I don’t think its unexpected considering none of them were drafted with top potential. Bernard exploded early on, but really tapered off as the Bengals rotated between him and Green-Ellis. Bernard is a much better back and will have a nice career, but I don’t think this is going to be his year.

Bernard has been undervalued so far:

2013 Playbook Giovani Bernard Gold Booklet Auto Patch

2013 Topps Platinum Giovani Bernard Auto NFL Shield 1/1

Verdict: Unlikely to win

Geno Smith

I am not a Geno Smith fan based on what we saw during the course of the season. Although he brought the Jets to the edge of the playoffs, his horrible play in multiple games offset the nice performances he had other places. Coming out of school, Smith was likely the top QB in the draft, which means that his value was the highest. Now that the season is done, I don’t see the same kind of potential. Although there is unlikely to be a coaching change in NY, I would expect the Jets draft at least one guy to compete for the job.

These are not where they used to be:

2013 Topps Chrome Geno Smith BCA Refractor Auto /75

2013 Topps Triple Threads Geno Smith Transparency Auto /25

Verdict: Longshot

Its been a rough regular season all around for football cards, Im interested to see how this all works out once the awards are handed out. Collectors may still be buying wax, but they have definitely not been buying singles. Next year will hopefully be better.

2 thoughts on “Handicapping Candidates For 2013 NFL Offensive ROY

  1. My vote goes to Eddie Lacy. Hands down. He finished 8th in the league in rushing yards, 3rd in league with 11 rushing TDs and almost carried his team to the playoffs. Keenan Allen would be a close second.

  2. Allen is my vote, but you missed an under-the-radar guy in Zac Stacy. Check how his stats compare to other rookies after only playing about half the season. The fact that you even put Geno Smith on this list tends to devalue your entire commentary on the subject, by the way.

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