When it comes to the rest of the 2013 products now coinciding with 2014 pre-draft releases
, are we safe to say that the new rookie class will in fact be better than the last? Although it shouldnt be worse, can the stain of 2013 impact how collectors are viewing single card sales of the rookies that are released each year. Basically – did the worst rookie class in years do irreparable damage?
The big rookie hits out of Supreme (a popular product since 2010) arent close to where they could have been:
2013 Topps Supreme Eddy Lacy Quad Patch Auto
2013 Topps Supreme EJ Manuel Auto Inscription Booklet /5
2013 Topps Supreme Mike Glennon Auto Patch
Crown Royale is even worse – and the silhouettes are some of the best Panini cards of the year:
2013 Crown Royale Le'Veon Bell Auto Patch Silhouette
2013 Crown Royale Eddie Lacy Auto Patch Silhouette
2013 Crown Royale Montee Ball Auto Patch Silhouette
I dont think its out of the question to assume that there were collectors driven away from buying wax after seeing how little secondary market value the cards had out of the pack. Rookie card after rookie card was dropping by the second after the product hit shelves, and with those people being driven away, is it possible that they may never come back? We should be considering the answer to that question.
Look at what is happening with some of the coolest looking cards of 2013 so far. They are so low in price, even though they look awesome, and are less than a week from release. After the player collectors pick up the first card they want, there are literally no other people that will pay close to that price. Some of the bids end so low, that the price stays low, even though so few people are opening the product.
After further consideration, we should all be very happy that 2014 rookies like Johnny Manziel have enormous value out of the gates. Even a defensive player like Jadeveon Clowney ending up as a 50 dollar card is promising considering he doesnt play offense. Blake Bortles is already selling above where I expected, and as the other QBs come through the draft, there could be more guys to round out the impact rookies.
Its possible that collectors were so spoiled by 2012, which was only exacerbated by ridiculous years for Russell Wilson and company. There were two players in the class that have National Treasures auto patches that will sell above a thousand dollars. Insanity right there, especially when Russell Wilson was drafted in the 3rd round. His card is the hottest there is right now, and that wont change for six months if not more. It could be a decade before that happens again. The success of this 2012 class even now, may be a good indicator that collectors are not above being re-captured.
Everyone should be excited to see 2013’s card calendar end. It was a BAD, terrible, horrible, no good year. Even when you see products coming out that are moving more to on card non-RC content, that doesnt matter when the majority of the hits will be rookies. Pray that 2014 turns out better.
I think that, at least until the season starts, the excitement of the ’14 class will repair any short term damage done by the ’13 class. What is interesting about ’13 is the money RB’s brought–Bell, Lacy & Ball among others. I don’t think any of those guys is an AP-type transcendent back and yet they are among the best sellers of the class.
I think overall the value of singles is being watered down by market saturation (see what I did there?). Too many products, too many autos. Even Chrome is getting to be too watered down within its own set by the massive amounts of parallels. I think this phenomenon has more to do with the erosion of the value of busting wax than any class ever could.
On the other side of the coin, did the 2012(and to some extent the 2011) class over inflate the expectations of rookies and products.
If there wasnt Luck, Wilson and Griffin the year before, Geno and Manuel would have higher prices at least until their performance and crap teams affected the value. Plus very little “math” is done in terms of what team does the player go to.
Wilson went to a team that was just missing a QB and he had a wide open competition for the starting job.. Would Kaepernick command the prices he does if he was drafted by the Jets or Browns?
Bell and Lacy are every bit as solid as Doug Martin and Alfred Morris and probably have better potential perf and value based on the teams they are with…
The hobby is just too jaded any more and there are too many realeases which waters down everything. There shouldnt be 2014 and 2013 rookie products overlapping each other. Which is going to be out first 2014 Bowman or 2013 5 Star or how long is the gap in between?
Im not sold on any of this years QBs and dont pay any attention to any of the products out for 2014 before Topps Flagship. If they are not in the pro uni, its not for me. You even referenced the issue with previous post regarding Leaf and its long term value. Is the hobby that hungry for a new class that you’d rather buy wax for college unis of this class than any product or single from 2013?
The thing to remember about the 2014 class is that more than likely Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles will all go to terrible teams just like Geno and Manuel and Ponder and Locker and so on… There are very few players that can turnaround a team let alone one in the most important position in sports… There value will be solid out of the gate but when the games start and they are getting pummeled and spend as much time on IR as the field, like EJ and Geno, will we start looking to the class of 2015 in October…
I feel like we treat football like baseball and try to prospect and value potential way more than actual performance. Guys that have rings like Brees, Eli and Rodgers have values that are too low and guys come in with too much hype and value like Kap, Newton, Griffin and even Luck.. There are still auctions for Tebow items that have crazy BIN prices that have no basis in any kind of reality…
Didn’t damage me any, I didn’t buy any of this rookie class cards. Sticking with HOF and On Card Autos. Thanks
I’m a very unusual collector. I started collecting in December of 2012, at 46 years old. As far as I know there are not many people in my age group that starts collecting football cards so late in life. With that being said, I had a blast in 2012. It was such an exciting time that even my wife became a collector.
As 2013 products rolled out, curiosity made the both of us purchase products here and there. After Topps Chrome made it’s debut for 2013, we both refused to purchase any 2013 products. We collect to collect, but to see such horrible book values from no name underperforming players, we could not see the value in collecting garbage. In twenty years time, Luck, Wilson, and RGIII will be remembered not only as star players but also coming from a draft class that will be difficult to replicate. As for the draft class of 2013, in twenty years time, many will be asking; “Who is this”?
Our collecting continued and excitement continued in 2013 by way of purchasing hobby boxes produced in 2012. That was the only logical solution to this issue. Will the 2014 collecting year be destroyed by the ridicules garbage from 2013? I must say that time will tell if this will be a strong market. With that, I’m so glad that 2013 is now behind us.
Toshi