Baseball, like every other sport consistently delivers new talent that impresses with surprise. Guys like Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were expected to be superstars from day one, and no collector ever expected to get them at bargain basement prices. Unlike these superstars, Matt Harvey and Chris Davis, two players who have had incredible starts to their seasons, which have led to ridiculous speculation of their cards.
Recently, the Matt Harvey Bowman Superfractor auto sold for a price usually reserved for guys like Harper and Strasburg:
His other cards are also selling for ridiculous prices reflecting his recent dominance on a top MLB collected team.
Chris Davis, who has hit more homers this season than many expected him to hit in his entire career, has done exceptionally as collectors have caught on. Like Jose Bautista a few years ago, Davis has been around for a while, which has led to a little bit less potential where buys would occur. This is a very small sample size for a guy like this, and it begs the question of whether or not this production will continue.
I have never bought into hot starts or even great seasons without consistent production in baseball. Too many things can change that prevents the player from catching on and staying on top of the mountain. The same thing is present in football, but there just seems to be more variables that lead to a successful baseball career in a much more skill oriented sport.
Similarly, with pitchers like Harvey, there are always arm injuries that many players cant avoid no matter the situation. Strasburg hasnt even been in the league for five years, and has already had one major surgery. During that surgery, his value plummeted. Even though its back and better than ever now, its a ticking clock for these guys. One can only imagine what is possible if a guy can perform at the top for a long time, without blowing out an elbow.
It takes a lot for me to get going on a guy, as baseball functions unlike any other sport. Mike Trout was an aberration in 2012, and now that 2013 has come along, he has slowed down a bit. He was literally unstoppable before. Sustained superstardom in baseball is rare, and many collectors are just trying to get on the train before the tickets are too expensive to buy.