The Final Four: The Only Sure Bets in the NFL Today

When you are looking to get into cards, the first thing that always comes up is investments. I know a lot of people out there, still view cards as a worthwhile venture to place a marker, regardless of what the trends say. Although I dont believe that cards are worth staying into for the money, there are a few players that I think are a safe bet. The only issue is that many of them are near the ceiling of their potential.

Andrew Luck – QB, Colts

When the 2012 draft was approaching, I had never heard so much hype surrounding one guy. Luck was described as a generational talent, and one of those cant miss type of guys. The “cant miss” tag had been applied to a number of busts in the past, but everyone, including collectors thought he was the guy. So far, they have been right, with Luck showing that he has the skill and talent to be one of the elite guys. The problem is, its no secret, which means his value is sky high.

Here are some of his better cards:

2012 Topps Chrome Andew Luck Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

2012 Contenders Andrew Luck Auto Rookie Ticket

2012 Exquisite Andrew Luck Auto RC

Aaron Rodgers – QB, Packers

No matter how big the vaccuum of talent around him remains, he always finds a way to make his guys look like rock stars. He is easily one of the best in the league, if not THE best, and is on his way to a HOF career with a Super Bowl win under his belt. There are a few limiting factors though, mainly stemming from his lack of autographed cards in recent years. Because he doesnt sign much, his cards are sky high.

Here are the few choices, and you can see the numbers:

2005 SP Authentic Aaron Rodgers Auto Patch /99 BGS 9.5

2012 Topps Aaron Rodgers Ring of Honor Auto On Card

2005 Contenders Aaron Rodgers Auto Rookie Ticket

Tom Brady – QB, Patriots

There are very few individuals in the NFL with more than one super bowl ring, and even fewer with 3. Although Tom Brady hasnt exactly been incredible in the last year or two, he is a first ballot hall of famer who plays for a team that has a humongous fan base. Like Rodgers he has very few signatures in packs as of late, which means his top cards are going to cost huge money as a result.

Brady will be in the new Flawless set, interesting to see where they sell in comparison:

2000 Contenders Tom Brady Rookie Ticket Auto

2013 National Treasures Tom Brady Auto /5

2002 Topps Tom Brady Ring of Honor Auto On Card

Peyton Manning – QB, Broncos

After the game tonight is complete, a record might fall that was once deemed “unbreakable” by a few people. Manning could pass Favre tonight, and barring a significant injury, will break it shortly if it isnt today. Unlike a lot of the other guys on this list, Manning signs a ton, and his autograph is easily one of the most affordable if you are looking to pick up one of those once in a lifetime type of players.

Manning’s cards may spike after the record is broken:

1998 Bowman Peyton Manning Auto RC

2013 National Treasures Peyton Manning Auto Patch Booklet

2013 Topps Supreme Peyton Manning Auto Patch

It should be painfully obvious right now that Quarterbacks are the only worthwhile players dumping money into, especially if they are rookies. The scary thing is, you used to have guys like Adrian Peterson who were well on their way to defining a generation of Running Backs, but we have found out that no one deserves to be put on a pedestal until its all said and done. His cards still sell, just not what they used to sell for.

This goes doubly so for rookies, as guys like Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater have shown that it takes a lot of time to figure things out in the NFL. The cards just arent where they would have been years earlier. ther skill players that are having good years almost dont matter, because once the new rookie class comes in, the previous one is all but forgotten. Rookie classes like 2012 may be the best in recent memory, but they have also spoiled the collectors into thinking that every rookie needs to make the playoffs in their first year or its time to move on. Scary thought indeed.

I remain curious to find out how the football hobby will change in 2016 with Panini taking the reigns, as we have seen a diminished collecting base already take effect on card values.

5 thoughts on “The Final Four: The Only Sure Bets in the NFL Today

  1. Really interesting piece. I don’t personally consider trading cards as good investments but you’re absolutely right that QBs are the only way to go. The market is lopsided in favour of the ‘current’ players though. When Andrew Luck (a good QB admittedly, but one who has yet to win a thing) is already commanding the price he is then there’s little ROI potential. Even if he does go on to match Brady, his cards are already near their values.

    The only real major ROI I see is spotting guys whose RCs are affordable (e.g. Russell Wilson in 2012, A.J. Mccarron this year) and hoping they make it big. Guys like Maziel who are expensive from the get go are a non-starter.

  2. I agree with you 100%, as we see the comparative value of retired players is a huge discrepancy over guys in the league right now.

    Montana is a top QB in every way shape and form, but his autographs are only worth similar to other HOF, not current guys.

  3. To add to Ben’s comment – besides his investment *type*, consider the once high value rookie who showed promise but haven’t performed as expected and have seen their values plummet….e.g. Sam Bradford (will start again IMHO) and Cam Newton (values dropped substantially). There is ROI opportunity there

  4. You are right. The big money is just in a small number of quarterbacks. And, quarterbacks in general have the highest potential for huge paydays. However, if investing is your sports card collecting goal, there is nothing wrong with turning a $10 investment in a running back, wide receiver or potential lineman superstar into a $20, $30 or more payday. The risk is small and gives people on a budget a chance to have some fun.

    What will happen to card values in 2016 when Panini takes the Football hobby reigns? Because of my 37 years experience as a management analyst, I enjoy examining the data, evaluating potential risk/reward, and making predictions. My current job as a sports card retailer, makes it necessary to evaluate potential risk/reward and make business decisions.

    In this hobby/business, the most influencing factor is the performance of the rookie class. Second is the products produced (design and content) and the relationship of their cost and worth to the customer. The third factor is the supply and demand relationship. While no one can control the talent pool from year to year, the card manufacturer can control or effect factors two and three. In 2016, Panini will have more control than ever, and based on my knowledge of the Panini leadership and staff, I feel confident they will do it right.

    There are three types of Topps Football Collectors: 1) Those who would buy nothing but Topps, 2) Those who prefer Topps and will spend less money on Football cards, 3) Those who like both Panini and Topps and will divert their budget spending to Panini (because it is their only choice).

    In the case of #1, these people never bought Panini Products and they will not affect Panini card values in the future. In the case of #2, while at first these people will spend less money on Football cards, Panini will work to improve their products (design and content) and encourage them to see the value in buying more Panini products. Being the sole manufacturer of Football cards will give Panini the opportunity to target, grow and keep new collectors in the hobby with more lower priced products. As these new collectors gain an understanding of card collecting and their value, they will transition to the higher priced products and increase demand for these products and their single cards.

    These new collectors will take time to make a huge impact on card values. And, because it will take time before we know the impact of the 2016 Rookie Class, I can only guess what 2016 NFL Football sales will look like. At this time, I put my money on Panini to do things right.

    The reason Panini got exclusive rights is because they have been a financially successful company for many years and had the money to get exclusive rights. Panini is smart and knows the future is dependent on continuing to keep existing customers happy and gaining the trust of new customers.

  5. So much truth in this post. QB’s are where it’s at.

    I picked up a Bowman Sterling DeMarco Murray rookie auto on eBay last week for a little over $30. He’s only the hottest running back in the league right now playing for one of the most popular teams. I was expecting to pay around $50-$75, but $33?

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to pay as little as possible for a quality player’s rookie card, but I find it crazy that his cards can be obtained for, in my opinion, such a low price.

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