I want to attempt at writing a post on the subject of growth and decline in the hobby, but I want to preface this with saying that this is a bit out of my depth. I havent really had a lot of experience with studying the card market and its fluctuations, but I think I have a number of questions, and some baseline ideas around market manipulation that bear some discussion.

Last week, CardLadder introduced the concept of “Verified Sales” on the heels of a few trends they were seeing the market. In one such egregious example, the sales of Patrick Mahomes’ Prizm RC had been manipulated 16 out of 20 times. Only 4 sales of the card in recent months had been legitimate, and they ended on average around $1500 less than the shilled sales. Going back to my post from a few weeks ago, should we or can we trust what is going on right now with certain market growth trends?

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Lets go back a ways to see how specific tactics have influenced things in the past, because – AND I KNOW YOU WONT BE SHOCKED TO HEAR – this has happened many times before the boom even began. Market manipulation has happened so frequently that I would guess a feature length documentary wouldnt be enough time to cover this subject.

The first time this really made national news was back when PSA first started their card grading service. A trimmed Honus Wagner was sold as authentic, and did so for a record price. Because the card was already rare and valuable, it kick started a number of sales around Wagner that still stand up today. The people involved in this scandal have long been outed and books written, etc. Even though the source of this market growth was based on an altered card, the prices never went back to where they were before. In fact, if that card sold today, even in an altered state, the price would exceed its original market making example. That is the issue here, and it happens in art, it happens in comic books, and it happens in any industry where collectibles and money are involved. All it takes is a few dominoes to fall, and then the FOMO kicks in.

Funny enough, there were a few collectors that tried to manipulate a market after seeing how easy it was, and were oddly successful at accomplishing their goal. Back around the time that the hobby really started kicking into high gear, a few Michael Jordan collectors decided they wanted to create some growth in a number of cards that they felt were undervalued. They included some rarer high grade inserts from the late 90s and early 2000s, and started selling within their group at record prices. These sales were so far above the norm, that collectors on Blowout’s message board immediately started questioning the legitimacy of the sales. Because the supply of these cards were so small, and the market was a fraction of what it is now, it only took a few sales to change people’s perception of how much these cards were worth. Most people would expect the prices to go back to their expected value, but they didnt – those specific rare inserts remained more valuable than other similar Jordan examples from that era, just because of the manipulated sales that helped to create extra value.

Seeing what we have seen across multiple areas of the hobby over multiple eras, it brings a number of things in scope for questionable practices. Whether it is something with an absolutely tiny market like Vintage wrestling had, or something larger like what has gone down with graded Marvel cards and any of the Precious Metal Gem cards . It wont be long before a six figure sale goes down in those niche markets, and we could eventually see an eight figure sale go down in PMGs. Where does that growth come from? Where does it start? In some cases, its the already expensive pieces getting exponentially more expensive, but in the case WWE and Marvel, it seemed to come out of NOWHERE. Even more problematic is how few people owned the majority of the now high valued assets.

Seeing Cardladder try to curb market manipulation is a bold step, and one that has been needed FOR YEARS. At the same time, CardLadder is a premium service that isnt as widely used as the sold auctions listing page on eBay. Being that CardLadder was just acquired by PSA’s parent company, there are automatically conflicts of interest involved in the display of investment data for graded cards that are sold by their backer.

Shilling and manipulating auctions to achieve a higher price isnt a new thing, and it isnt one that will stop because its so easy to accomplish – especially for a highly desirable piece. Consignment shops like PWCC and Probstein have faced constant barrages of accusations, to a point where PWCC was banned from eBay’s platform all together. Obviously it hasnt stopped their success, launching their own platform where the rules are enforced by the accused, but I digress.

Honestly, I dont know what Im trying to get out of posting my thoughts here, other than venting frustration that people seem to be gleefully participating in a market worth billions, yet have no accountability to the obvious need for regulation. The biggest players in the hobby freely operate in a manner that suggest gross abuse is possible and present, and have yet to be held accountable for any of those conflicts of interest the way that the video game industry has to a significant degree recently.

Because the auction houses, the grading companies, and the dealers all have very public and very dependent relationships, there are huge issues with using any data from those platforms in a way that makes sense. We can hope that the sales data gleaned from their pages is legit, but there are too many examples of wrongdoing to ignore. So many federal indictments later, and we are just expected to roll over and say, “Sure! I fully accept all this at face value.” Personally, thats quite a stretch for me. The hobby is made up of a number of good people, but underneath that surface is a cesspool of criminal activities insulated by willing ignorance from the public. Sometime soon, I have a feeling that someone will need to pay for their mistakes, and it wont be the people that should be on that hot seat. I mean, that’s what always happens, right?

When 2021 Ended, most people were relieved to have a fresh start. Even though the calendar now reads 2022, it doesnt mean that much has changed around this place, something that shocked absolutely no one. The seedy underbelly of the hobby has ALWAYS been a fucking dark place, going back to the 1990s where manufacturers were accused of running the factory overtime to churn out more cards to sell for profit. Hell, back in the 1950s, Topps threw a bunch of 1952 baseball (yes, that set!) into the river because they couldnt sell it, as the story goes. There are few constants in life, but one remains largely undefeated – more money, more problems. Biggie was right.

Just in the first quarter of the year, there have already been a number of scandals that have become a huge focus for the discourse on social media. Backyard Breaks gave away a box of cards that had a five figure pull, and then decided to not give it away. Marx cards, a large grading submission service has filed for bankruptcy after taking in millions in cards to submit. This bankruptcy comes after allegedly using the funds people paid them to grade cards to open a store. They blamed PSA and others for their issues. Overall, the scandals have only brought more attention for the need for more scrutiny around a number of places in the hobby universe.

Collectors tried to fight back, starting petitions on Change.org, and sending messages to Twitch and other hobby powers to get these people to own up to their mistakes. To a degree, the backlash forced some action, but the damage had already been done. Collectors who lost their cards to Marx have threatened a class action, been in contact with PSA, and exposed a major issue within the hobby.

In large part, there have been 4-5 major situations this year, and we arent even done with the second month of the year. Countless other issues have likely been too small to bubble to the surface. After seeing the outpouring of rage on social media, and the people impacted by these scandals, there is one constant that needs to be further discussed – people undervalue the trust they give to people.

Trust is the emotion and action that makes this hobby function. It is what people give when they send thousands of dollars to a breaker to open cards for them at a secondary location. Its how people show that they are willing to send their most valued possessions to depot thousands of miles away to be graded. It’s the thing that gets abused when the stakes are high and money is flowing. Its the one valuable commodity that collectors have to give even if they have no other valuable assets to their name.

For most businesses, trust can be achieved by showcasing a promising business track record. “Ive done this hundreds of times with success, so I should be trusted to do it again and again.” This isnt out of the ordinary, as most businesses rely on customer satisfaction history to showcase they are trustworthy. However, all it takes is one choice to bring that all crashing down. For most businesses, that track record of success can signal to a business owner that they can take liberties with the trust of their customers. Soon those liberties can become much more than that, after one realizes that they can get away with cutting corners, or even outright defrauding their patrons.

Because there is no federal regulation of this asset based economy, many hobby businesses are likely not even businesses in the eyes of the public. They are some dude in his office turning on a webcam and taking people’s money to resell goods. Because the stakes in this hobby have become so gargantuan, those people are taking in six figure incomes on the regular. Platforms like Facebook, Loupe, and Whatnot offer amateur retailers the chance to seem professional, an action that seems very risky on the surface and likely much more risky underneath. Hobby apps promise vetting and verification, but Facebook offers nothing other than the court of public opinion.

Even Paypal has caught on, offering buyer protection for purchases gone bad, but that process can be easily avoided with platforms like Venmo and Cashapp, which offer little protection. Obviously, the worst people in the hobby have found ways to avoid being responsible for their actions at this point.

Pages like the Sports Card Scammers Exposed website has a facebook group where people can report bad transactions, experiences, and the like, but the page is crowdsourced, and can be a cesspool of drama. Its also focused on the individuals who do bad things, and requires people to seek out information to find it, something that is rarely successful. Im glad these pages exist, even if they are a rudimentary defense, as it offers a starting point for research rather than all of it.

The worst part of all of this, is that we have all had negative experiences with being scammed, myself included. Few exist in this hobby without a story, and most of the stories stem from the exploitation of our trust, knowing that everyone with a dollar in their hand is a target for shady motherfuckers who want to watch the world burn as they count their riches.

Beyond the complaining about lack of action and the way few face the consequences, the real question emerges – how do we avoid getting caught up in the wide web of bad things that happen across the hobby?

This is where we all need to do a little work, and its work that no one wants to do. Homework sucks in every stage of our life, but its the one thing we can do to set ourselves up for success. The more money you spend, the more homework is required. Trust is valuable and shouldnt be available in large quantities. I have a few rules that I try to follow, but not all of them have been successful.

Rule 1 – If its too good to be true, it probably is (the golden hobby rule)

Rule 2 – Dont play with money or cards you cant afford to lose

Rule 3 – Dont pay people with money that isnt protected, unless you are ABSOLUTELY sure you can get it back if necessary

Rule 4 – A proven track record of success only matters if they have something to lose

Rule 5 – Trust your gut, if something smells bad, just walk away

Bottom line, as long as money is available to be stolen, someone will try to steal it. This is true in every area of human existence, and the hobby is no exception. This is where the negativity we all complain about in the hobby serves a purpose. Everyone should look at every deal with skepticism. Everyone should look at every seller, breaker and retailer with skepticism. The more money that exists to be made, the more people will want to make more of it, even if that comes at the detriment of their success and reputation in the long run.

I hope that people realize that the only way these fucking ass hats remain successful is because we let them. You are your only defense, and you are the only way they fail in their schemes. The more work you put into it, the more likely you can avoid any issues.

I spent a lot of time yesterday writing about the growth of WWE Chrome from 2014 and 2015, mainly because those sets have been the driver of some huge sales that the market has rarely, if ever, seen in modern wrestling cards. I wanted to go a bit deeper into why this is so important, especially as Panini hops in and really gets things going. Three months from now, we are going to be having a very different conversation about the potential that modern Wrestling has, and you can absolutely expect that Prizm will benefit from this as well.

2021 Topps Transcendent Vince McMahon Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1 – $9,326

We were all watching this card like a hawk, especially as the auction price creeped closer and closer to $10k. When it finally closed a little under, everyone was excited, and everyone knew this was the beginning of something big. Not only was this important because of the value, but it showed that there were some WWE collectors out there who were ready to invest heavily in wrestling, and also that the market had reached a maturity level previously unknown.

Transcendent is the top of the mountain as an ultra premium product, but it hasnt been until recently that value held well on the big hits. Vince McMahon has less than 200 autograph cards available in Topps products, and is of the most important people in wrestling history. Not shocking that Vince’s card was the one that really showcased the highest end of the market. For a while before this, there was a run on the Transcendent Chrome Supers that were turning heads all over the place, as well as the Garbage Pail Kids original art that was going absolutely crazy as people scrambled to pick them up. I think there were quite a few people that expected this to go higher in a bidding war, but were very happy to see where it ended.

2014 Topps Chrome Roman Reigns Superfractor Auto – $15,000

Coming out of the Vince McMahon sale, there were some that speculated it wouldnt be long before another card broke the ceiling. That being said, Im not sure if anyone expected it would be the Roman Reigns that had been sitting on eBay for a year plus with no movement. The asking price was so high, it came up on top of every search that was sorted by highest price in the category. Because the market hadnt caught up yet, there it sat, week after week until the right dominoes fell. This past week, the sale was completed at 15k and everyone’s jaw dropped. If we are going to point to the beginning of the revolution, its not this card, but its definitely the result of what happens when the run begins.

There were three other sales that contributed to this card going as high as it did, and Ill talk about one of them in a second. The other two were the red refractor auto /25 that sold for 2k a week earlier, and a refractor auto at 1k. As 2014 Chrome started to be sold at huge prices, due to some factors about small print runs and legacy I discussed in the previous post, the main autograph on the checklist was going to start to get some attention. I dont think anyone expected it would happen this early. Since the sale, a lot containing another red, base and refractor has sold for $5,000. His rarer 2015 autographs have started selling into the four figures from 2015. That’s FOMO for you. Just remember, there is a gold version /10 from this card that will absolutely pop up here soon. Im guessing that might be 5-6k now on its own.

2015 Topps Chrome The Rock Gold Refractor – $3,200

Lets start by saying that it is beyond rare for a modern WWE card to sell at $3200. Its even more rare to see a raw, non-autographed card out of 50 sell for that price. This sale to a collector on instagram was shocking in its own right, but even more so because it was to someone without a big focus on WWE. The Rock is the biggest movie star in the world right now, and his cards have been setting records since the boom began back in 2020. Lest we not forget that his Miami Hurricanes “RC” sold for over 30k twice, and his Comic Images auto is so expensive that most have stopped looking to buy one.

Even though we know what the Rock is capable of, his cards never got to a point where a sale like this was possible. Ive always said that an auction on eBay needs a good amount of luck and planning to accomplish a showcase of true market value. This is one of those examples that I think might be the epitome of those two things. Luck because so many people saw it and wanted it, and planning because it was listed during a time where not many other big cards were listed or ending, on the heels of other bigger sales. This is the auction that really made that Reigns sale possible, but it is far from the only card that contributed long term.

2015 Topps Chrome Charlotte Flair Red Refractor Auto /5 – $1200

You might be wondering why this card is on the list, but its one that I believe signals an interesting turn for the potential auctions that will turn the tide. Flair is the most accomplished female performer in WWE history. Because of a number of things, she is far from the most valuable female that is available in the market. Fans struggle to support who they see as the women’s Roman Reigns, a star pushed so far down throats that it generates a terrible backlash. Unlike Reigns, who has found new life in a bad guy persona, Flair hasnt found the same success in turning fan appreciation. However, like Roman, her first cards coincide with 2014 and 2015 chrome, which make her a prime target for a run like this.

Her red refractor auto was part of the first Chrome set to feature a real parallel structure like Topps Chrome in other sports, but to this point, her autographs rarely registered on the radar. Of course, with Roman Reigns driving record prices, FOMO starts kicking in for investors watching along, and this sale was completed shortly after. Its the highest sale for her cards, and a direct result of everything we are seeing over the last few weeks. There are higher female Chrome sales to point to, with Superfractors from recent sets in 2020 selling for as much as 1500. Yet, this is the first one to directly benefit from the rest of the cards on this list.

2015 Topps Chrome Hulk Hogan Pulsar Auto /75 – $2200

I am not a Hulk Hogan fan. His public life after wrestling has been nothing short of a mess, and his personal life doesnt seem to be going in the right direction. Unfortunately, his story is a common one in Wrestling, with most people recognizing that the business is a cesspool of terrible people. Series like Dark Side of the Ring has done wonders to showcase just how bad things are and were.

Collectors still love themselves some of the Hulkster, with his cards driving the majority of the vintage wrestling boom that started around the beginning of 2020. As a result of the record prices Hogan was seeing on that side of the market, his modern cards, including his autographs in Allen and Ginter, and his Upper Deck PMGs have shot up in price as well. When someone listed a higher parallel of his 2015 Chrome autograph on eBay at $10,000 no one really took it seriously. At the end of January, someone bought it for $2200. I saw that sale and immediately thought that I must be taking crazy pills. Shortly before this, his graded cards from 2015 Chrome started spiking, and I would guess that there was a reason why someone out there thought this was the right next step. Seeing it now, they were not wrong.

Also worth noting this one is signed “HULKSTER” instead of his normal signature.

2014 Topps Chrome Undertaker Gold Refractor /50 and 2015 Topps Chrome Undertaker Gold Refractor /50 – $1675 and $386

When I think back to what really kicked off this run, there are two cards that really stick out. For a while, the Rock’s chrome sales were the ones that people were watching. In early December, when the raw 2015 Gold Undertaker sold, I almost fell out of my chair. There was no way that this card had sold for THAT much. I remember fire sales on Facebook where that card would sell for ten bucks. For six years, that card wasnt moving the needle, and then over night, it was a 400 dollar card.

Then in January, when the Undertaker’s Gold Refractor from 2014 sold for quadruple that price after being bought for under a hundred earlier in 2021, it signaled a new era was ready to explode. Funny enough, a John Cena gold refractor sold at 1200 at the exact same time, and within minutes, Wrestling Card twitter was seeing lightning on the horizon from the coming storm. I remember talking about 2014 Chrome on a few podcasts in mid 2021 and how important the brand was for Topps to focus on in WWE. I didnt know at the time that Panini was about to swoop in and take over, and I had no idea that this was within reach.

For everyone who has been in WWE cards for a long time, welcome to the thunderdome. I hope you are having as much fun as I am watching this all go down.