When sports cards started creeping up, I saw a lot of excitement. The pandemic was supposed to wipe out everything we loved about sports cards, especially with millions of Americans out of work, and millions more left with a half job that wasnt going to cover much of anything. Instead of tanking the market, sports cards exploded, with so many people longing for the fix of happiness that ripping a pack can provide.

As the card market slowly approached unprecedented levels, a second narrative follwed suit almost at the exact same time. There is no way this tidal wave of value and investing could be a long term thing – this was a bubble, and as sure as the sun rises in the East, it would eventually burst.

I have to believe that many of the louder voices of this counter narrative were made up of a few different groups of people. The ones that had been priced out of their hobby that had brought them so much happiness over the years, combined with frustrated FOMOers, and finally those that had lived through the early to mid 90s. The frames of reference were true, its rare that a giant boom of interest was at all sustainable, especially at prices that only a fraction of a percent of people could afford to participate.

If the prevailing opinion that cards will eventually come back down, especially with Americans eventually having access to all those things that brought them joy and places to spend money prior to the pandemic, how will it look?

Is It a Bubble?

As it turns out, the pandemic did not start the upward trajectory in card investing and money, but rather augmented and accelerated an existing trend – at least in specific parts of the hobby.

Vintage and important cards from important players were already increasing in value, just not at the pace they did after the shutdowns started. Iconic and important cards from the most essential players in the hobby were also increasing.

Given that already existing trend, sports cards seemed primed for a nice few years of growth, mirroring the existing growth that had already taken place. What none of could plan, was that the pandemic would drive a spark in interest, driven higher by celebrity involvement and investor attention.

Bubbles exist because of artificially inflated prices that reflect a short term supply famine and a giant demand increase. If either of those aspects of the economics change, the bubble bursts. As we saw many times before, when demand greatly outweighs supply, the people in charge of the supply do what they can to increase their stock. If they can capitalize on the demand in time, the prices normalize.

With trading cards, there is a never ending supply of new modern cards. Its literally licensed at a level that Panini, Topps and UD can print as needed, as long as they have the means to do so. We have already seen Panini introduce multiple new formats across the calendar for every sport they own, and Topps doing similar with what they own. The supply of cards is going to change in 2021, and likely in a drastic way for 2022.

The last time this type of demand increase happened, 1987 Donruss and the junk wax era gripped the industry and almost drove it out of existence. The demand of the current era is supplemented by a similar starving collector base, but augmented by contrived scarcity. Unlike the era of junk wax, serially numbered cards and finite autograph resources make unlimited production relatively difficult. As we have seen, it hasnt stopped things from getting out of control, but its far from impossible to see resources drying up to continue down the path of the junk wax era in the same fashion.

Grading and the Long Term Success of the Bubble

Lets continue onto the part of the bubble that I feel is the one with the most vulnerability, and that is graded cards. Right now, the most important aspect of this explosion is the way hyper mint graded examples have driven exceptional market performance. Its two fold, demand for a limited number of high grade cards, and the limited number of those cards to begin with. Both of those aspects are vital to the success of trading cards as a long term investment play and how the grading business impacts the overall durability of this bubble.

To start, the grading impact on things isnt going away. If anything its going to get more important. As much as that makes me upset and disappointed, its a reality no one can run from. Certain high grade cards that populate the champagne room of this hobby may forever be unattainable for the majority of the hobby because of this state of affairs.

Although the million dollar sales may eventually slow down when things get back to normal in our regular life, the trajectory of value is not going to be stunted. There is too much toothpaste out of the tube to stuff it back in – especially with how many athletes and celebrities are catching on. News coverage of the top sales perpetuates one of the conflicts of interest I mentioned in the previous post, but it also spurs a blitz of new considerations. “If that card is worth 1.8 million, what is this more desirable card going to go for? Lets find out!”

These mega cards really share one specific trait that will forever make them the icons of the hobby – there arent many of them. True rarity, not contrived rarity drives a lot of that value, even if that rarity is in the subjective grade, rather than the rarity of the card. When we travel across the spectrum to the more every day examples, that’s where the true measure of this bubble really lies. Can the cards with no real rarity in a high grade continue to demand the kind of dollars that they do right now?

I think the answer lies in one very specific stat – the number of cards currently existing in the PSA backlog. We can guess that there are millions of cards currently waiting to be graded. Outside of the ridiculous price increases trying to dam the river, there are so many cards that are going to come onto the market in the next year, that the more common ones could see a flood.

That begs a question of whether or not the hobby can withstand the enormous supply injection and if the demand is truly as explosive as we all think. Its possible that it can, but we are foolish to expect that more supply will do anything but drive prices down.

What Breaks First?

People seem to be expecting a rapid downfall if/when this bubble does burst. I dont think I agree that it will happen the way people expect. I think it will be much more of a gradual process, and the new bottom will still be well above the old one.

The first indicator will be wax. If Panini and Topps continue to churn out cards that are indistinguishable from other cards released, the grading queue shortens, and people start seeing a clearer picture of how many cards exist in the hobby’s new universe, I think the first thing to start going back will be new wax from sets that were generally throwaways in the past. Right now boxes of product like Donruss and Score are 10x what they should be. I just cant see a future where those boxes remain desirable enough to sustain a price like that. At the end of the baseball season last year, wax prices seemed to settle hard. The desirable sets remained in an hyper inflated price state, but the rest really went back to something resembling normal. This could be the first indicator when things start to normalize.

The second indicator will be the value assigned to new cards of unimportant players and unimportant sets. Like wax falling off, the insane quantity of cards will eventually generate a supply that cannot sustain the type of demand that was initially there. The legacy sets like Topps Chrome and Panini Prizm will continue to drive the market, but paying $9000 for a second year card of an unimportant player in an unimportant set is going to be another hole in the wall.

The last indicator will be the lowered value of common cards in high grades with growing pop reports. We have already seen that enormously common cards, that were born during this new era have never existed outside of a sleeve from the moment they were pulled from a pack. This is different from cards that were released earlier and without much fanfare. The spectrum of grades that should span results of 7-10, will eventually be much more likely to span 9-10. It creates an artificial scarcity, which will change.

How Long is it Going to Take?

The saying is always buy low and sell high. The problem is knowing when a card or set will reach the peak of its value. Right now, people are holding because they feel that they still have room above.

There are other factors as well, stemming from environmental due to the eradication of Covid, and governmental stemming from the stimulus packages. As long as those things remain in play, the peak is still off in the distance. When those things change, that’s when we will start to see the decline come into focus – if it ever does.

I dont think there is a guarantee it will ever get back to where it was. In fact, I would say its likely not going to get there. But to think that this boom is infinite in its timeframe is short sighted. There are too many headwinds that should or will change.

We always used to wonder what the next big thing was going to be, thanks to years of stale products and lack of innovation. Right now, that stalemate could be a harbinger of trouble, especially with things like NBA Top Shot and other innovative collecting approaches taking hold.

If this boom lasts beyond the 2-3 years, there is going to be a number of questions that will need to be answered, most of which stem from basic things. We are talking product delivery, product configuration, grading, and community. The more things stay the same, the less of a peak the end will have.

Right now, group breakers and many shops are living their best life, with many of the products selling like they never have in the past. At the same time, rising cost and lack of access to affordable wax may limit the participation of many people who used to be the driving force behind many of the cards we chased on eBay.

This leads to more discussion of direct to consumer sales, changes in the way eBay manages their sports card related listings, and how products are configured to ensure group breakers never struggle to fill breaks.

In looking at this from how I would approach things, the key to long term success hinges on technology. Too many parts of the hobby function on outdated approaches, which is why Top Shot and digital collectibles have become the darling of many talk tracks in the hobby. The more Topps and Panini can innovate around creative uses of technology to connect, inspire, and track the progress of their consumers, the more likely this boom will continue to grow.

Like most people, I never expected this to happen the way it has. I never saw sports cards as the key to Pandemic era happiness until it was. Being a part of this hobby for so many years, Im excited we are finally getting our time in the spotlight. As they say, for most, there is only 15 minutes of fame – and we are all curious if we are on minute 3 or minute 14 here.

Its been almost six months since I have posted on this site, mainly because I have found that long form writing about cards has basically run its course for me. I still like to write, and do so a lot on my other sites and Twitter, but its important to recognize that I feel like the voice of Sports Cards Uncensored has moved to other places online.

Because those places limit the ability I have to write in any extensive or in depth sort of fashion, posting my thoughts here in a longer version seems to be the way to do it, especially for a subject as long and as involved as grading.

I have written more in depth explanations of my feelings surrounding the business of grading than many topics here on the blog over the years, but I feel its time to revisit those arguments. First because the collecting boom we are experiencing is unlike anything I have ever experienced in the history of my involvement with the hobby, and second because this boom hinges almost implicitly on high grade cards.

Background

Lets start back around the beginning of all of this craziness – not 11 months ago, Im talking about back when grading first got its start. Around 1991, PSA started grading the condition of trading cards. BGS and SGC started a few years after that. Because almost every sale was done in person, and the internet’s treasure trove of information wasnt the standard of gathering education, PSA’s service hinged on providing two things – condition opinions and authenticity opinions.

The mid 1990s were a similarly hot time to be a collector, with the first really crazy numbers being achieved for sales of rare and vintage cards. It spurred everyone and their mother (literally) to go out and try to find the next treasure to pass to their children in 30 years. This led to a few things, including more money flowing through the hobby, and of course, more issues with people taking advantage of new collectors who didnt know any better.

With a service like what PSA offered, collectors could at least feel safe that what they were getting was A) authentic, B) the right condition, and C) the right price. The consideration of a high grade card bringing more value was only really present in cards that condition issues ranged from poor to mint, not mint to gem mint the way it is today.

When eBay began globalizing the collecting economy through their auction site, a new reason for grading became very prevalent that was similar to the original purpose of the service. Most digital cameras were low resolution and may not offer the same level of sharpness to determine condition from a sale not completed in person.

A New Era of Graded Cards

Fast forward a few years to 2005, internet sales have become the new way to operate in the hobby, digital photography has advanced significantly, and grading has shifted away from its original purpose of peace of mind. Thanks to a new phase of collecting where collectors looked to seek out high grade cards of prospects and upcoming stars for sales later on, grading has become as much of a money making tool as anything.

Because the technology had improved and the methods of completing internet sales had changed, the original purpose of condition verification is really no longer needed in the same way. The split of modern and vintage had switched completely, with a new generation of cards that rarely achieved grades below 8. The grading spectrum had become all about mint and hyper mint grading, with miniscule condition variations separating the entire population of cards.

It was no longer about vintage cards that ranged from destroyed to generally mint. The cards were newer, the condition was rarely an issue, and collectors chose the best examples to send in for grading. It skewed the population in a way that was likely never considered, and created a need to market in a new way. Instead of marketing around verification, the grading companies needed to market volume, capacity, reputation, and the true trump card, VALUE in the completed product.

High grade examples of modern cards had been seen by the collecting base as a gem of their collection, leading to collectors seeking out and paying more for those cards. The subjective opinion of the grading companies had become the bible, rarely questioned, and rarely in need of accountability by the buying public.

As the shift to making money became the primary driver of the graded card collecting public, the grading companies recognized the true business opportunity early on. As a result, the way the industry was marketed and solicited changed as well. This is where my main issues started to become the norm, focusing on the giant conflicts of interest that are created by monetizing a subjective opinion with the promise of making money over a raw example.

Today’s Exploding Market

Right now, if a top card isnt graded, there is likely a reason. Whether it is altered, in unfavorable (but still far from poor) condition, or just not authetnic at all, its hard to want to spend hundreds, thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars on a raw card.

Similarly, graded cards have achieved celebrity status during the recent Pandemic Era due to high visibility personalities showing their desire to invest in high grade examples of cards from across the hobby.

Due to the huge multipliers that are achieved by hyper mint condition cards, the grading companies have been overwhelmed. Its almost a result of their own doing, with many of the grading companies creating new tactics, like the BGS Black Label, to give competitive collectors a new avenue to get the best of the best for their collection.

Auction houses have started soliciting sports cards in a way that highlights the need for top condition cards, with the velvet rope area of the hobby functioning solely on high grade examples of the main rookie cards and chrome cards.

Some of these cards have become so important and so valuable that the $10,000 modern card ceiling has been obliterated. Just a few years ago, a card wasnt TRULY part of the champagne room until it was over 10,000 dollars. Today, that number is closer to $100,000 if not $500,000. The high grade Michael Jordan RCs have gone from a $25k win to a $500k windfall, and its all because of a subjective opinion from a company that requires no transparency and no accountability to the grades they provide.

Examining the Issues with the Process

With more and more high dollar sales being completed, my main issue centers around the process itself. Every business needs a proprietary offer that separates them from competition. Grading seems to be no different, trying to build in proprietary features for both the end product and the process to create the end product.

That’s where the issues start. The product that all the grading companies sell is their opinion. Unlike other opinion based services, the grading opinion is absolute and without evidence. If a card receives a hyper mint grade, that grade is likely going to exist forever. More importantly, there is ZERO information as to why the grade is what it is. BGS may peel the curtain back a small amount with subgrades, but its still just a number on a flip.

There is not a single prominent grading company in existence that offers any transparency beyond the number on the slab, and that is a huge problem when you are looking to pay the high prices that have been assigned to high grade cards over the past two decades. Both PSA and BGS cite trade secrets as to the nature of their process, and point to specific definitions on their site. Most collectors site the fact that the reputation and value is earned through results, but I would argue that the process itself might be the biggest part of the conflict of interest in its own right.

More importantly, with such insane money value assigned to high grade cards, most of the savvy collectors and dealers have found the easiest ways to manipulate the system to get the desired results. Basically, let me put it this way – a grade is only final to many participants when it reaches the highest possible grade. The condition of the cards never change, but because the difference between a 9.5 and a 10 is microscopic, it brings a game element to trying to catch a better grade just through subjective opinion.

One grader may have one opinion, another grader may have another. There are also multiple companies with multiple graders, which means that it becomes very easy to game the system. Resubbing cards has become a seven figure venture for many dealers, especially ones with people on staff who know how to play the game.

Add in that once a grade reaches the desired level, it is there forever. There is no need to validate the opinion in any way, shape or form. The lack of accountability, tracking and regulation drives the entire business side of the grading industry, and we havent even gotten to the relationship side of things.

More importantly, over the last 10-15 years, high value sales have generated major and mainstream national attention. Assigning a high grade to a card, without accountability can easily drive publicity for the grading company and their wares. I remember back a number of years ago, a Joe Montana rookie was assinged a BGS 10 at the national convention. This was a top cards, with a top grade, at the top show in the land. Tell me that isnt a perfect recipe.

These sorts of things make for some very interesting bedfellows, especially when the process itself is shrouded in a veil of trade secrets. There are people out there who can speak to the level of attention that is present across the entire grading spectrum, but its hard to ignore how many major issues exist.

More importantly, with attention comes time, and we are getting a first hand exposition into what happens when a process is ill equipped to handle volume, and may not have been equipped in the first place for any real volume at all. To microscopically examine every card takes time, and if people believe that the same attention is paid to each example, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you.

That doesnt necessarily mean that zero attention is paid, but I can only imagine how many of the mistakes that are frequently called out are the result of speed review rather than a truly air tight process. Remember, these are humans with an inherent bias that populate the employee ranks of these companies – not machines. Theoretically, machines can speed up without error, or at least have a scientific explanation of what risks are involved with more speed. Humans on the other hand, cannot add speed without loss in accuracy, which means the only solution to any volume process is more humans, not more speed.

Lastly, there is very little accountability in the tracking of completed graded cards, despite the PSA set registry being a major driving force in competition among collectors. Even though PSA has record of every grade they have ever given out, and shares that publicly, they do not publicly track which card crosses their path, and how many times that card has been submitted.

This creates a giant hole in exploiting the system, with grades frequently increasing the condition result, even if the card is exactly the same. No doubt, humans make mistakes that should have an escalation process to fix, but when a card numbered to 50 is submitted 180 times, its clear what is going on.

Relationships and Conflicts of Interest

For the majority of the time that modern cards have become the focus of grading, the conflicts of interest and creation of marketing tactics to sell more volume have brought my view of the grading business to an all time low.

Grading is a business and businesses exist to make money. Period. End of story. For a long time, grading was competitive, expensive and risky. Creating relationships with customers was a primary need for each business and creating value in their process had to be done organically, not systemically.

The grading companies had to show that the population was creating additional value in their high grade cards, and on the flip side, they had to create more opportunities for more value in the end result of their opinions. This meant things like preferential treatment, more grading styles, higher focus on partnerships, and offering bulk submissions had to become the standards.

Lets start with the creation of Hyper Mint condition, because that is what has made the grading business what it is. Before grading the best a card could be was Mint Condition. Sharp corners, straight edges, and bright colors with no defects on the surface. With grading, it has become about microscopic perfection, including some that I would argue are more of a made up qualifier than an actual condition to occupy.

BGS took it a step further with the creation of subgrades and eventually a black label for all cards that get four 10s across the four subgrade categories. This is nothing more than a sales tactic, but through marketing and contrived collector acceptance of a higher value for these cards, it has become a way to achieve exponential new value in an otherwise raw card.

Hyper mint does not need to exist. But I equivocate its creation to that of the Diamond business, where marketing and product placement achieved a perceived value in a common stone that has persisted to this day. DeBeers and their advertising department is responsible for the value a diamond has in today’s society. It has become generally accepted that their marketing is the truth, offering extreme value for a stone that was used for industrial functions during WWII.

This leads to another major conflict of interest in the relationships that are available and how it influences grades. Im in sales, and for each one of my top customers I do a few things. I give them better attention, better representation, and more perks. Otherwise, they will go somewhere else. In it’s essence, the creation of a business around a service means that this type of relationship is inherent to the process.

A customer that subs 500,000 should not get any different grade that a single sub customer will get. The fact of the matter is that we can assume the mass submission center is submitting that much for a few reasons. They find the process enjoyable, they make money, but most importantly, they get the results they want.

In listening to podcasts, reading blogs, and participating in message boards for years, its clear that relationships with the grading companies exist. Although accusations have been tossed around regarding preferential treatment, it should just be assumed that it is the case. It has to be the case, because the business model is ripe for that type of manipulation. There is also no grading ethics committee, no federal committee on grading, there is nothing holding the grading companies back from giving this treatment to their top customers other than their reputation.

One could argue that this reputation is too important to risk, but at this point, with over a billion graded cards in existence or coming into existence, a scandal surrounding the top submission machines would not only not hurt anything, it has already happened.

In fact, scandal and lawsuits have existed all over the grading industry for decades. When the feds raided the NSCC a few years ago, grading companies were at the center of that investigation. The ownership of each grading company has repeatedly found themselves at the center of scandal, with the feds, the grading public, and the businesses built around them frequently having reason to get involved.

None of this has struck a chord with any collectors, as we have seen, with trimming scandals, authenticating counterfeits or any of those major misdeeds having any impact on the value of a high grade card.

In fact, things have gotten so busy for the grading companies, price hikes have been announced without adding any additional service, any additional feature, and as if this wasnt comical enough, likely a promise for slower service. This isnt a service anymore though, it seems more like an elaborate grift.

This timing situation creates a situation that I find shocking hasnt taken more of a hold in the recent hobby explosion. Most cards need to be graded to achieve their top sell value. At the same time, most grading can take 6-10 months at this point, unless you are willing to pay hundreds of dollars per card. Add in that boxes now cost 10x-50x what they used to cost, the expectation of grading is asking people to take out a six month, interest free, deposit just to sell what they pull out of a box.

The buyer’s expectation demanding a card be hyper mint to achieve the full value is just insane, and the fact that sellers (not high volume dealers) put up with it, depends on their liquidity used to buy the inflated boxes and inflated cost of raw cards. Pretty crazy to say the least. Its almost removed the casual wax breaker from the hobby.

How Do We Fix The Issues?

So far this post has been all about what is baked into the grading business as a drawback. If all these things are the problem, how do you fix it?

Honestly, that’s where things get even more complicated. Removing the lack of accountability and lack of transparency will only hurt the people making the most money off graded cards. They thrive on exploiting the gaps that exist so that they can turn a 1x profit into a 100x or 1000x venture.

Until the transparency around the process is fixed, grading companies take an active role in providing both an ethical service and one that offers clear tracking, none of the issues I have will ever stand a chance of reaching an above board level.

There have been new grading companies that have come on board and worked to offer exactly that, but they are a small minnow in an ocean of PSA and BGS, with a very small chance of success.

I also believe that the government is likely going to need to get involved, as the industry has reached a point that makes it impossible to hide in the shadows of irrelevancy. There is no doubt that class action lawsuits are likely on the way, and major federal investigations will follow. Too many people have spent too much money, and the government will want to collect their cut. They will also want to ensure that no one is effectively and deliberately running the circle jerk that seems to have taken over the hobby.

To close, this post is the equivalent of screaming into a tornado the size of Chicago. There is no way anyone is going to take what I say and apply it in any meaningful way. When investors and new hobby participants are joining the ranks and jumping directly into the deep end of graded cards, they will assume their collection cannot be important without the best graded examples.

Its a self perpetuating daisy chain of ignorance, with many collectors acknowledging that the money they make is more important than the sanctity of the process. Not only can I not blame them for their feelings, I actually understand their position more than people think.

I just hope that a new influx of ownership and more familiarity with the pitfalls of the process leads to a better understanding with the general public. I doubt it will have an impact, but we can always hope. Crazier things have happened right?

Again, this year’s focus is all about the insane wave of value increases starting in March and continuing with the pandemic era late into the year. Some have said that there is a ton of new money that has entered the hobby, but I dont see it with the same rose colored glasses – as I have said before.

Most of what I am seeing is people who would be spending on lavish or even regular trips for the summer months, instead spending on cards with no travel options available. At the top end, investing in the most expensive cards available, things may be different, but most still believe there is a bubble that exists.

Cards like these are really where things have exploded:

2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Auto RC BGS 9.5

1986 Fleer Michael Jordan RC PSA 9

These cards really only apply to the top of the top spenders, mainly the top .0000001% of the hobby. Mostly they are investing in high graded versions of the most important players’ rookie cards in each sport.

Then there is this subset of value bumps that I just have no idea about. Things like spending insane money on a time that a player first appears in a Panini Prizm sets. Dont even get me started on that garbage.

Among all these different trends – one thing really remains the same. Rookie cards remain the coin in which cards are standardized across, with few exceptions (Upper Deck Jordan cards anyone?). That begs the question – for people looking to really invest rather than collect, is it worth buying any other cards besides the main rookie cards that people chase at top end of things?

Going back to my previous article – I said it was a select group of sets that really set the standard. Chrome stock based products for Topps and Panini, NBA and NFL National Treasures, NFL Contenders, and few others. In fact, the super-super-super premium wax like Transcendent and the like really dont set the standard the way Bowman Chrome does. Same can be said about Flawless. For such an expensive box, it doesnt perform on the secondary market the way NT and Prizm does.

At the time of release, Flawless was designed to be the more expensive product based on MSRP. Eventually NT became insanely more expensive, mainly because collectors see NT as the standardization, not Flawless.

Going back to the point of this article, if the purpose is resale and long term gains on investment, why would anyone buy any of the products that dont offer the cards that eventually become the top cards in the hobby?

Other than the fact that prospecting on the main products has caused wax to skyrocket in price even before the cards are released, the answer should be pretty simple. Buying boxes of the flavor of the month to pull cards that are the flavor of the month, isnt a good business plan. There are exceptions to the rule, for sure, but nothing like just spending money where you know the top cards available will ALWAYS be the top cards.

I know, its not fun to just buy the cards instead of pulling them yourself. I would argue that the investors who have made enough to pay off their house these last few months arent ripping boxes left and right. Their dopamine rush isnt coming from ripping packs. Its buying stock in RCs that they know to be the cards surrounding the top players for years to come.

Even though Panini puts out 40 NFL products a year, the only ones that matter are WELLLLL known. Why do you think Topps puts out 18 bowman products and 18 topps base set products a year? Its the place where the secondary market looks to set the standard for their goods.

I just find it hilarious to see self titled investors pumping THOUSANDS into products that fail to meet the standards established over years worth of investing prior to the popularity during 2020. If you are among that group, maybe I have been gone for too long to truly see the short term benefit of rip and flipping garbage like Illusions or Phoenix. From a long term perspective, I dont seem to be far off.

I stepped away from blogging a few years ago for a number of reasons. It was taxing to try to come up with content on a daily basis, a new job was (and still is) dominating my time, and kids were running rampant through my house. Now that the hobby has seeming been put on a trajectory similar to that of the mountain climber on the Price is Right, I wanted to make sure to use this platform once again to share some long form thoughts. As much as I would like to believe that this will be a return of sorts, it really isnt more than me getting tired of the character limit on Twitter.

The Backstory

I started writing here in 2006-2007, right when the super premium aspects of the hobby really started to hit top speed. Exquisite on the NBA side was hitting it’s stride like nothing I had ever seen before, branching out into the NFL en force, and dabbling in baseball as well. Donruss Leaf Playoff (DLP), the founding format behind Panini America, had just released National Treasures football in 2006 as an answer to Exquisite. Because there was no DLP basketball license in place, Upper Deck and Topps really ran the show. All of this is really important in the greater context of things, because as the velvet rope of the top end of the sales spectrum became more defined, Panini became the driver as league exclusives settled into place for all four major sports.

Additionally, where the major talk about the explosion of high prices present since March has all been derived from people that exist in that space. Although many products they are buying six figure cards from exist from the middle range of boxes, the people dont fit in the same spectrum as many of the collectors I engaged with during that original infancy of this new modern engagement with cards.

Over the next 10 years, the super premium space that Upper Deck pioneered and Panini exploited to build their brands, things changed dramatically. Even though products like base Topps and set collector focused products still existed, high cost products like National Treasures became a standard as Upper Deck’s legal troubles forced them out of all the spaces they had dominated prior.

Factor in that Topps locked down an exclusive license with MLB and Panini with the NFL, NCAA and most importantly the NBA, and the face of the industry side of collecting was almost 100% different than it was when I started following this closely.

As a result, certain legacy products that existed before this all went down created a focus group of investment worthy products. For those who dont have a good familiarity, here is my list:

Topps – All Bowman Chrome products, all Topps Chrome products, some Finest products from prior to 2002.

Upper Deck – All Exquisite products with pro licensing, SP Authentic with pro licensing, and all premium NBA products with pro licensing.

Panini – All National Treasures, NBA Prizm, NFL prizm post 2016, Contenders, some spin off chrome products like Select.

Basically, if it uses Topps’ chrome type formula, people loved it and continue to want it. There are surely exceptions to the rule, but its extremely rare to see a huge sale from a card that comes from outside this group of products.

The Beginning of the Boom

There is an oft uttered phrase that sports cards outperform the stock market when compared over a certain time frame. This is true to a degree, but the execution of that investment is different than the way 75% of the hobby really functions. Investing in already established high grade cards from very specific players and sets , then sitting on them is not the way most people collect. We buy wax, we buy singles of our favorite teams or players, and we stash them for enjoyment. If we pull something nice, we either sell it or sit on it, but that is all a byproduct of spending on generally unfavorable odds in wax.

All that being said, attention from certain high profile influencers and other investors has brought eyes to the investing in cards that hasnt happened in this way since the 90s. GaryV (nee Gary Vaynerchuk) is the name most twitter collectors associate as a face, but there are likely many others who are occupying the same space, just not as vocally. People like Nat Turner, had defintely taken a different approach for sure, sharing purchases on Instagram, very much in the range of six figures. Turner owned a company that was sold to google for a staggering amount, and being that he is a collector has taken his profile to the moon with the ability to spend in ways most of us can only dream of.

Most of this went down from late 2018 and 2019, prior to the pandemic, where cards like older Jordan, LeBron, and valuable rare NBA inserts from the late 90s started to climb the value charts in a way that seemed uncharacteristic of the previous types of spikes. When Tom Brady and the Patriots won a sixth superbowl, Patrick Mahomes won his first MVP and later a ring, things started to bleed over into other areas – most notably Mike Trout and the major names of current MLB.

In a more notable part of this, collectors seemed to loathe the presence of these new types of investors, mainly because it had already started to drive up the price of super premium wax products, but also cards that seemed to be well below the threshold most of these guys were buying in.

The Perfect Storm

In March of 2020, the world experienced the beginnings of what the Pandemic could do to the economy across the globe. For 50 million Americans, including myself, unemployment became a new way of life. Around the globe things went to shit almost within a two week period. For most countries, this period was something that included a lockdown shelter in place that lasted months. For Americans, a politicized atmosphere led to a host of other problems that persist to this day.

Regardless of that, travel became restricted, outlets of normal spending for things like meals out or bar tabs went away, and the course of disposable income all over the land became different. From what most reports we saying, the people who had lots of money prior to the pandemic did the same or better during this period of time. With no where to spend that money, and economic stimulus checks being provided to everyone else, there was a flood of money available and few options to spend it.

As we saw during the 2008 recession, Americans dont like to save money. As you can imagine, many hobbies started to see huge influxes of cash, with Sports Cards gaining national attention. If you were going to spend six figures on a card before the Pandemic, you now could spend that a few times over with no where else to spend that part of your budget.

The Future

This perfect storm led to a boom unlike anything anyone had seen, with only the collecting boom of the mid 90s being a fair comparison. From this new way of life in the hobby, many have immediately started to wonder about the most important question there is – what kind of sustainability exists?

This question isnt simple, and no economic question should be. In all honesty, I expect some research and many papers to be written about this time, with Sports Cards being among the most odd bump that exists within the study of economics during the pandemic.

Lets break this down, just to make sure everyone has a good understanding of what the possible outcomes could be.

First, everything continues up and we all wonder how high it can go. Second, the prices at the top end of the hobby stay, but other prices go back to a normal state. Lastly, everything crashes back down to where it was and continues on the slower growth path it was already on before the pandemic spike.

For the first outcome where everyone continues to feast, I have to believe that is just not something that happens in any real boom. Although sustained growth was present before, it was a small subset of the greater hobby. It wasnt like a box from a shitty filler set was going for 4x what it was the prior year. Even during the boom of the past few months, I havent seen a lot of new names on the boards buying into boxes of Score Football like its going to contain the next 52 Mantle. On the other hand, I have seen the real focus sets mentioned above continue to be the dominant force behind everything. If its chrome and you can grade it, its all of a sudden an investment piece. Ill get to that in a second though.

Im leaning more and more towards the second outcome, where those pieces on the top level of the hobby continue growing from where they are, but maybe dont hit the rapid growth we have seen since January. All the bottom 99% should start to come down on a steady trajectory as soon as people are able to spend more normally on things. Remember, the summer is a time where family vacations and heavy spending are very common, none of which was available this year. All of that seems to have been thrown into cards instead of savings for many collectors.

To support this, we have already seen a number of areas of product lines start to come down to what was more pre-pandemic situations. Additionally, some spending is going back to normal for many Americans, as bad as that might be for the control of the virus. The next true test will come for the holidays, as gift giving could super-charge things again. Product delays due to the pandemic also seem to have contributed to the boom in a lot of ways, and now that there is a more steady stream it has subsided.

The third bucket where everything crashes is still a very probable situation. Remember, Im not saying it crashes to nothing, Im saying that rapid growth goes back to where it was prior, and gets back on the regular value increase path. Some may come down harder than others, but the record sales we have been seeing may slow.

The Impact of Grading

Personally, I think grading is a scam. Go search the blog for my thoughts as to why a business that sets the market with no accountability, huge conflicts of interest and a never ending stream of value growth is a bad situation overall.

That being said, my opinion doesnt matter. In fact, it is so insignificant that it almost isnt worth discussing. Grading adds exponential value to cards, even though every circumstance shows that it should not.

Because grading has become the standard that qualifies investment, PSA and BGS have been overrun with delays and order quantities in the millions because everyone knows you cant sell your prized investment without some third party qualification on a hyper mint scale.

Many of the large sales are driven by two things – high grades, contrived scarcity in low serially numbered cards or a combo of both. Its gotten so crazy that there are a number of high population graded cards that are selling like they are rare, even when they are not. Its the “DeBeers Phenomenon” almost to a T, and its frightening that people are assigning such huge value to an asset that is readily available.

Regardless of how I feel about the situation, each player has become its own market, defined as much by the previous high sales or low sales of their cards more than the collective potential of their future.

Investing Now vs Not Investing

We all get to the point where FOMO is a big deal. “FUCK ME, EVERYONE IS MAKING BANK BUT ME!!!” something that some have lived as a reality for a few months now. The real situation we should all be cognizant of pertains more to the timeframe of getting in rather than the potential of getting out and running to the bank.

The boom has already happened, and most are now focused on whether it is a bubble or not. If we think back to the .com boom of the turn of the century, a similar situation with the stock market was happening, although with much different standards of value.

For most, buying high and hoping to sell higher is a stupid and insanely risky proposition. This wouldnt be the first time that investing in Amazon and Apple stock past the point where they are American institutions has paid off in spades, its just inherently more unlikely.

There is definitely more money to be made, but it goes back to that group of sets that really have always been the primary driver of value in any sport and any modern context. Buying boxes of products that fit into these situations is also a way to bankrupt your bankroll as well. Investing doesnt pertain to the gamble the same way ripping wax does. Buying singles also doesnt have the dopamine rush that opening an expensive box does. However, its the only way to roll. Period, end of story.

Playing the game smart and buying the right things, even when value is astronomical isnt always a bad thing. Its just not something most of us can afford and most of us would want to spend on even if we could.

My only advice is simple – have fun. If buying an expensive box made you happy before and you can still afford it, keep going. If you loved collecting your favorite team before, why stop now? If you were an original investor and have to come to a decision point in moving on or staying put, I dont envy your position. Just be smart and listen to the experts as much as possible.

This is still a hobby to most of us, hopefully that will remain the same for years to come.

I havent posted much on here lately for a lot of reasons. Mostly those reasons stem from the fact that my new job requires a ton of travel and a ton of work. I just dont have the free time any more, and what free time I do have is more focused on spending time with my kids than writing.

To be honest, I started writing this blog as an escape and because I loved writing. Much like professional wrestlers, I loved being a character. A character that many in the industry enjoyed for over 10 years. For the most part, that character was me, but with the volume turned up to 11. Over the last few years, I have found how taxing that portrayal can be, not only on here, but on Digital Card Central as well. For the better part of a decade, I was writing two to three posts a day on two different subjects and it was a ton of work.

As a result of that work, it definitely paid off. I met people and friends from all over the world, and that alone was worth it. I also got a lot of access behind the scenes at the card manufacturers that became a new perspective on how this industry works. Most importantly it was fun because I was passionate about cards. I had a hobby that I wanted to share with the world, even though most people saw it as something they did when they were kids.

Whenever I started a new job, we always did the ice breaker at orientation. Tell us something interesting about yourself. Most of the time I was proud to say that I ran one of the most popular blogs about sports cards and memorabilia around. That always led people coming up to me and asking for the address, and for information about the cards they had stashed in a book behind their family photo album. Cards have a way of connecting people, beyond what we do on Twitter every day.

Over the last few years, that passion for writing about cards has died down. Not because I didnt enjoy the hobby, but mainly because other parts of my life took up so much time. We had our third baby last December, and like his brothers, he was a handful. I started to recognize that spending so much time writing and so little time enjoying really wasnt the formula when its not a full time job.

Dont get me wrong, I explored a full time job a few times. I have had some good offers, but it was clear to me that my hobby would never be something I could do for a job. Jobs make things real, and when things get real, it can be really hard to keep them fun. Not saying it isnt possible, but it is highly probable a job becomes what it normally is.

Last month, with a major expense on the books, I decided it was time to move the majority of what I own and settle down on all buying when it comes to cards. I was always a person that loved super premium cards, and that got very expensive. With a new baby and this expense ahead of me, the disposable income disappeared pretty quickly to the point where my hobby participation needed to change drastically.

Ill tell you, pulling box after box after box out of my closet and taking them over to the shop felt very cathartic. Not just cathartic but a bit horrifying. I had so much stuff that never saw the light of day or a display shelf. I just had it stashed away. I always describe card collectors as a class of people obsessed with vanity and a little envy. Vanity in the fact that we all want to be seen as an authority or at least someone that has a “great collection.” Even if we are still building, its always a journey to acquire more pieces or more knowledge to show the world we are worthy of its acceptance.

A very generalizing statement I know, but if you see the way so many collectors engage with social media, its to show off the goods, no matter how insignificant they might be. I was a slave to this, addicted to the attention. I still am an addict in so many ways I couldnt sell every last card I have. I had to save some of them, and that’s a scary thought in its own right.

With all of this on the table, here is my challenge to the readers, as its important to understand how YOU remain happy in the hobby. For a long time, I portrayed a character that was pissed off with how things were. That anger and venom came from a place of love for this industry and experience I have had over the last 35 years. I wanted to make sure things were getting better for my own sake. I loved cards so much, I hated when card companies or collectors made dumb decisions that hurt what I saw as the eventual goal we all strive for.

Im still on twitter and Im still having fun, but if you find yourself wondering why you stick around, its time to pull those boxes out of the closet and appreciate your cards instead of letting them rot. If something has been sitting in there for 10-20 years, what joy or happiness does it really bring? Will anyone but you know that its gone if you sell those pieces of cardboard? I asked myself these questions recently, and came to appreciate the stuff I kept that much more. Im no less an important member of the community just because I sold most of my collection.

This isnt meant to be a goodbye or a confession, or even a cry for help. Its just a new direction. One that is likely going to be a more fun and fulfilling way to participate in a community that I have enjoyed since the internet revolution started.

I just wanted to take the time to say what I wanted to say, because that way – I know its still exactly what I had always hoped it would be: a good way to pass the time.