First off, apologies on the lack of posts lately, my life has changed so dramatically this year that my priorities have shifted away from blogging as a whole. New job, new baby, and new just about everything has changed the way I have been a participant in the hobby and a participant in the blogger community. Although I cant promise to be as engaged as I used to be, one of my goals for the coming year is to post more on here.

This blog has been going for over 10 years now, and I still value having this as an outlet to share my thoughts when needed. Hopefully you can be patient with my lack of posts here, or follow on social media, where I am much more active in bite sized pieces. My twitter handle is @SCUncensored and my Instagram handle is @skolgellman – check out both to keep up.

As for 2018, what a fucking crazy year. For just about every one of the major sports, a craze took hold that didnt really let up, even with set backs on the field. I absolutely love seeing people hop on bandwagons, as a rising tide usually floats all boats. Whether it was Ohtani or Mahomes, shit was going down, and it was fun to watch.

Baseball is a weird sport, because it doesnt take much to set off a nuclear weapon, especially if the player has an international market behind them. Honestly, I wasnt as enthralled with Ohtani or the MLB this year, unlike last year where the Judge and Bellinger race for Hobby ROY was historic. Although Ohtani did live up to some of the hype, injury and nightmare reflections of Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Kenta Maeda rung like bells in my ears.

Funny enough, that didnt stop the Superfractor from setting some records when it was sold, and a 180k plus sale does not happen regularly. Coming on the heels of a Trout Bowman RC parallel selling for more than double that, the growing gap between the extreme high end collector base and everyone else continues to get wider. 

Baseball is such a different beast because of this dual persona that exists within the population. There is a staunch but vocal minority of collectors who long for the 80s and 90s to make a comeback, collecting and collating sets, and really not liking the new direction. They are quite in contrast to the growing group of higher end MLB collectors, which for many years was always a market Topps struggled to communicate with.

With another exclusive now in place for Topps leading into the next decade and likely beyond, the experimental nature of the high end go to market strategy continues to be a huge focus for the company. We are now through another year of Transcendent, which brings the most expensive hobby box ever built back to the fold for a third year, selling out as quickly as it did in its previous iterations. Adding in a Japanese version for Ohtani collectors was a big deal, and similarly successful.

Being that these products can co-exist in within a collecting base of people that are so drastically different is refreshing to see. With their legacy firmly entrenched for another long run as the MLB exclusive trading card partner, this could end up being a defining moment for Topps’ long run in baseball cards. It takes a lot for a sport to be non-dependent on rookies to prosper in a bad year, and surprisingly baseball might be reaching that plateau. They arent there yet, but with Trout playing HOF level ball, and a growing crop of young players that are hugely valuable to collectors year after year, Topps picked the right exclusive to invest in.

If I had to guess, baseball cards will further showcase how crazy things can get, and hopefully Topps really goes and takes some risks. We have already seen club specific sets take hold, as well as a growing following for their online exclusive products. That’s no easy feat to get over with a crowd like collectors have shown to be, and I cannot wait to see what happens this coming year.

The only real disappointment I have with 2018 is how much of a drop in momentum we have seen with their digital brands. Something I once believed was the next big thing in sports cards turned into a bit of a dud this past year. The team went through MASSIVE turnover, and the apps felt that lack of stability like I have never seen before. Topps continues to focus on digital collectors as an extension of physical collectors, and that is such a terrible way to go about their business, that I cant even put it into words.

Right now, bringing new collectors to the market has been a direct correlation to attention siphoned from incredible performances on the respective fields of play. Digital offers a completely different access point, as well as a way to capture the long lost young crowd that people have looked to reclaim since the late 1990s.

If you have read this blog for any real length of time, you know my feelings of luring kids back to the hobby. I think they are not going to participate in any real way comparable to that previous timeframe, and will never and should never be the focus of any product calendar. With digital, its a much different perspective, mainly because digital shouldnt be about crossover traffic. Turning digital collectors into physical collectors should be a nice benefit, but never the point. The point should be using the apps to gain access to a gaming population and insane stream of revenue that cards would never have access to and likely WILL never have access to any other way.

The apps should be games first and collecting second, and any residual traffic to physical products should be a happy accident. Topps, and Panini for that matter, are card manufacturers first and game designers maybe 15th out of 16 things they do, so that should say something about how I feel about 2019 for Topps and Panini Digital.

As for Football Cards, this was the first year where I saw a real palpable excitement similar to what we would see in the NBA or MLB, when a hot rookie really gets going. Patrick Mahomes was already a top value rookie in the 2017 class coming out of last season, but when September hit and he blew up, he was white hot unlike anything in the NFL. In fact, he was so hot, he may have hurt the value spectrum for the 2018 rookie class, where 5 QBs hit the field for the first time in a long time.

Panini has made strides in their football production, but not enough to turn me loose the way it would be if UD or Topps were back in the fold. I spent a lot of money ripping wax this year, and I feel like things would be that much more insane if the products were as consistently good as they were back with Topps and UD in 2009 and 2014-2015.

Hopefully 2019 has big things in store, because unlike the offensive firepower of 2018, 2019 has almost none of that. It would be scary to think another 2013 NFL rookie class was coming through the pipes, but it could end up being that way with a huge crop of defense being the focus of the upper part of the draft. The big QB names all came out last year, and this year, the biggest names seem to be going back to school or are not eligible yet.

Panini will need to stave off bored NFL collectors who only care about one position, something I have railed on the hobby for perpetuating over the last few years. Bottom line, the NFL collection base is dwindling, with a league that seems to have issues promoting enough career longevity to perpetuate higher values for non-QBs. Mediocre NBA players can last decades in the league, where 75% of NFL draft picks never make an impact, and 95% dont make it to a second contract. QBs also used to be stable, but we see teams moving on in shorter periods of time due to the rookie wage scale.

Sales may be steady and respectable for my favorite sport, but I fear what happens when the weight of injuries in the league take their ultimate toll.

Hopefully magic happens this year, because I think fun things have been brewing for a while. We are starting to see some gradual momentum take energy to maintain, but slowly pick up, and that’s a very good thing. The advent of online tools like COMC and Group Breaks have shown to be a catalyst worth our notice. There will be more innovation on the peripheral support, but I have really yet to see that innovation where it so terribly needed in the manufacturing side itself. We still see a lot of same player, same auto, different design taking hold with over 40 products per sport per year. Many rookies can sign 20-30k autos a year, and even then there are still redemptions.

Im sincerely hoping that someone finds a fresh take on things and offers a new direction we havent seen before. I would absolutely revel at the opportunity to see what the ad wizards can come up with. Over the last 5-10 years, very little of that has happened, though. The only real innovation is direct consumer engagement, either through digital apps, or direct to consumer purchases like FOTL. I do enjoy these changes, but they arent what sustainability looks like.

Really, for me, its just about having fun now. Being the white knight I saw myself as prior isnt really my thing now. I hope to stay as passionate and involved as I was previously, all while finding new ways to enjoy the landscape. Ill be in Chicago this year for the National Convention, hopefully Ill get to reconnect with some of the readers as I always do.

Enjoy the year everyone!

 

A lot of people love Triple Threads, hence its yearly inclusion into the calendar for over a decade. I am not one of those people. To me, Triple Threads has always been a physical manifestation of everything I cannot stand about card design and card collectors. Sticker autographs, rainbow foil stock, needless parallel structure, and of course – a high box cost. 

That’s not the reason Im writing this post, because everyone who has been reading this blog should know how much I hate this fucking set. This post is my yearly decent into hell – a review of the stupid shit Topps always die cuts into the relic cards. Whether its non-sensical phrases, odd nicknames, or weird accomplishments, Triple Threads is known for the redundant absurdity that creates some unusually cringe-worthy cards. 

Case and point: 

Without further adieu, here is a deep dive into the best of the worst, with an odd focus of just slapping names of random stats onto cards of people who represent those stats? Who fucking knows. Thus is Triple Threads.

Manny Machado – Bronx Statline – Not really sure what this is all about without looking it up, and Im guessing it is referring to his games versus the Yankees?

Mookie Betts – No Whiffs – Clearly referencing his notoriously noxious dugout farts. Stay away or have your face melted. 

Anthony Rizzo – On Base In First – For a player that has beaten cancer, broken a 100 year old curse to win a WS, Topps really used their imagination on what to use here. If you want the stats to get weirder and more odd, keep reading.

Javier Baez – Thefts of Home – He does steal home, and it is cool. But this is how I would imagine some pretentious asshole to describe such a feat. I honestly have no fucking clue why people flock to this garbage each year.

Noah Syndergaard – SO2BB Ratio – As we saw with Rizzo, Topps has a game for us this year. For this set, they just match a stat to a player. No reason for this to be a game other than to just show that their die cut machine is capable of functioning this far into the run.

Adam Wainwright – Winning Waino – Any joke im going to make about this card makes light of alcoholism, which is only funny when its your uncle drunkenly calling out your 8 year old for being a jobless bum after having too much to drink at thanksgiving. #topical

Carlos Correa – Hit & Runs – Another chapter of the match a stat to a player game, only significantly more boring. Dont worry, it gets more boring.

Ian Kinsler – Quick Starter – Fun stat that didnt make it onto the card, Ian Kinsler was probably part of the first run of Triple Threads. He has had so many fucking cards in this set, that they literally ran out of descriptive superlatives. CONGRATS!

Marcus Strowman – Grounders – See, told you it got way more boring. Its like making a football die cut that says “dropbacks” or “passing attempts.”

Paul Goldschmidt – Bat & Glove – Someone owes him an apology for this card. This dude has done some awesome stuff over his career, and they literally just ran out of ways to say he is a good hitter and a good fielder. Either that, or they need to instruct collectors about needed baseball equipment.

Jim Thome – Hot In June – I dont think Thome has been in this set much, which means there is lots of crazy shit Topps can use. Spoiler alert: they didnt use any of it. I just want one card that is literally a player, an autograph, and the shit emoji three times. Its better than this.

Another year of Triple Threads, another heartwarming display of a set from 2006 that should have been axed in 2009. Im not sure what is more shocking, that this set is still around or that we still find ways to show that Rhonda Rousey card? Both are just too embarassing to forget.

Since I have started collecting, I have always just looked to get as many autographs and high end cards of the players I chased. With now 35 sets a year being released under one banner, that becomes a significant challenge, especially if your team drafts a big rookie. For people that dont have unlimited budget, Im frequently asked on Twitter what cards are the most important to have, or which boxes are the more important to rip. Here is my take on what’s left now that my favorite products are no longer available from Topps.

Flagship Contenders 

It sucks that Panini has chosen to dilute their legacy brand names with so many different products each year, but at least the original is still one of, if not the most, important sets of the year. Because it is one of DLP’s original rookie card products, it had a certain legacy status when Panini took over. Tom Brady’s 2000 Contenders Rookie Ticket auto is probably on the mount rushmore of football cards, and that’s important to a lot of collectors who are looking to acquire new singles and rip a bunch of boxes. 

That doesnt mean the set is without issue, however.

Contenders has had some of the worst designs in the history of football cards. 2011 definitely fits that bill, and then some. It seems like the brand legacy that this set has is basically rooted in two sets, and somehow that grants a pass for all the shit ass looks that have been used since the first version of the product. 

Even considering that 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2014 are so god awful that they tarnish the overall name Contenders has, recently, things have been better. This year’s set is still yet to be determined, but it could end up being nice if the execution works in people’s favor. 

Because of the status here, QB autographs in the set are some of the most widely collected and highly valuable examples of the entire season. Although Im not a huge fan, owning a high grade cracked ice of any of the main QBs drafted since 2012 secures you a collection centerpiece. 

Flagship National Treasures

Like Contenders, there is inexplicably two versions of NT. The NCAA version holds water like a sieve, so dont bother unless you are looking to set your cash on fire. I experimented with some group breaks this year, and I cant move the cards for shit. NCAA is a license I hope Panini renegotiates in cost, because I fail to see any real long term value in any of the singles. Because of the huge cost of the license, we are doomed to sit through and endure products like NCAA NT, and it is a huge fucking money pit. 

On the other hand, the flagship NT set is the most valuable base rookie auto patch of the year. Because there are maybe 200 of each card, there isnt as much attention and movement in the market, but the value exceeds even Flawless. 

Much like Contenders, there are so many dark years of NT, that its hard to take the legacy of the brand seriously, but here we are. Panini got very lucky in 2010 when UD lost the license and Exquisite was forced to sit on the shelf. Topps put out a GORGEOUS set with 100% hard signed signatures in Five Star Football (my favorite year and set of all time), but because of a confusing parallel structure and its newness, people decided NT was the Exquisite replacement. It wasnt until 2014 that the overall design really hit its stride, but to this day, the set is full of stickers. That’s a big fucking stain on a set that is supposed to be the face of the sport, and I hate it. 

In spite of my hatred for the stickers, NT remains a favorite for big time investors, even though its literally only the main RPA subset that retains any value. You can likely get booklets, and insert autos for pennies on the dollar in comparison, and it all has to do with Collectors innate stupidity around a “true RC.” That whole concept is complete bullshit, but it contributes to these cards being the best of the best. 

Prizm

When Prizm first came out, it was no better than Diet Chrome. Topps Chrome was the most important set of the year prior to the departure of a competitive marketplace, and Prizm was created to ride those coat tails like a fucking barnacle on the side of a boat. If you want to see some fucking trash, go look at 2012-2014 Prizm sets. Panini didnt even do a good job in ripping off a small portion of Topps’ best.

In 2015, that changed considerably, with a migration to more of what the set is today. Even though Panini unceremoniously ripped off the Superfractor for some dumb reason, and then made the cards numbered /5, it still hasnt escalated the set to the top of the investment conversation. 

Even with some great looking designs over the last few years, as well as some nice improvements, Prizm still has sticker autos. In another mind numbingly stupid decision, Panini chose Optic as a way to bring hard signed autographs to the fold, even though the rated rookie cards look like fucking garbage. Prizm is one of the most heavily ripped sets of the year, and secondary market value on the wax continues to skyrocket season after season. With on card autographs in the mix, the whole dynamic could change. 

Now that the set has built up some legacy that doesnt involve 2014’s ghoulishly disgusting look, the set really has some legs without a Topps Chrome to carry the marketplace like it did in 2015. Prizm draft picks also took a break this year, so we get one NFL set for 2018 with the Prizm brand, and that is always a good thing.

Everything Else

Obviously, I left Flawless off this list because the rookie cards arent really the focus of the value there. Most of the rookie autographs arent even worth what the base Contenders tickets are worth, so there is a big gap in what should be done with the product and what IS done with the product. Flawless is not only too expensive for a sport like football, but like Treasures has an NCAA counterpart, whose existence makes my head hurt when I try to think about it.

Outside of the products mentioned above, Panini makes 35+ other products. Yep, wrap your fucking brain around that one. They will blame the license for the reason all the products are required to exist, but that is where the blame would fall squarely on the shoulders of the negotiation team. Basically, you have a few products that mean anything, and the rest might as well be one big clusterfuck of nothingness. The cards never hold value, the hits are full of sticker autographs, and when something awesome like Impeccable is released, with hard signed amazingly elegant cards, people write it off. 

Its sad that there are only really 3 major sets per year, and though arguments can be made for others, there just really isnt much defined in the Panini NFL legacy as a whole. Remove Contenders, Treasures and Prizm from the mix, Im not really sure what collectors have truly embraced. 

Lets run through some of the great stuff that has happened to football cards this year. Patrick Mahomes has found a new super power, and is white hot among collectors. Jared Goff is on his way to MVP contention with a Rams team that looks to be on its way to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady is still selling like he was last year. Mitchell Trubisky just put up 6 TDs in a game, something that hasnt happened for the Bears in a long time. Drew Brees is about to set some major records. 

Guess what? This is good news for the hobby. Although I have frequently commented on how much impact the recent QB renaissance has had in Football cards, and how much I wish it would carry over to other players, Im not going to sit here and say that this isnt a great thing for everyone who is involved with the hobby.

We need more attention to come to a sport where collectors are apathetic about spending money in general. We need the dog sets like Illusions and over marketed NCAA products to have some clout. Without these QBs, the people chasing and ripping wax will leave, and that means fewer eyes on the other players that deserve similar attention.

Michael Thomas is having a career year, as is Adam Thielen, which only goes to show that Khalil Mack is maybe one of the most undervalued players in the hobby, seeing that he hasnt even reached those levels. Hopefully with more eyes comes more buyers and with more buyers comes a better outlook for people like me, people who love football cards regardless of whether or not a QB is in our box.

This has to be a great situation for all the shops too, as all that old wax collecting dust on their shelves is finally going to be shaken loose. I think I even saw someone eyeing a box of 2017 Pantheon at a shop recently. That’s what we have come to. Yes – the garbage that populates so much of Panini’s release calendar might actually get some action outside of release week on Breakers  TV.

Before we start living in the riches of our .com boom for QB cards, lets realize where this might go.

Last year we saw a crazy situation with Tom Brady looking to lock up another title, and how much ridiculousness ensued with his cards. The difference between guys like Brady and the new hotness in Mahomes and Goff is that even if Brady lost, he still was the greatest of all time. If Mahomes doesnt get to the top of the mountain this year, there are going to be quite a few people who are going to be upset with their 8k purchase of his Contenders Cracked Ice. That’s not saying he wont be there again in the future, its just a showcase of comparative value that should be brought into EVERY SINGLE conversation like this. 

Overall, I hope this path continues. I hope that we get to see a Super Bowl where Goff and Mahomes square off for the ages. Chances are slim that will happen, but I hope all the people have sold off all their profits, because things can change in an instant – right Jimmy Garoppolo? 

So, with that, lets all pray for the ACLs and hope that our cards we hold stay on this trajectory. I have been around this hobby long enough to see how much of a loser you feel like when you should have sold instead of held. I also know how great it feels when you hit it big. As a gambler myself, I thrive on that rush you get from a huge win. I also know to still feel satisfied when you sell a bit early rather than a bit late.

 

 

I put a lot of money into Mahomes during the offseason, as it was clear that he had the potential tools do some awesome things this year. In my previous prospecting expeditions (if you could call them that), I had been relatively unsuccessful, especially with Derek Carr and a cavalcade of Vikings QBs that havent worked out. Thankfully, this one has worked out and then some. 

Right now, Mahomes prices are literally fucking bananas, and that shouldnt come as a surprise when you think about how much they were already selling for last year. Check them out:

2017 Contenders Patrick Mahomes RC Ticket Auto PSA 10

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Auto Patch /99 PSA 10

Funny enough, I seem to have latched onto what drives the hobby just like thousands of other collectors and I really dont feel like this is as good of a thing as people might think. Its good because 2017 products will go nuts, similar to what happened in 2016 with Dak, Wentz and Zeke, now Goff and others too. Its a challenge because its clear that only certain things in football have lasting values, and that’s not good.

That means for the multitude of non-QB autos that are the box hits in just about 99% of the product out there, there wont be much sustained potential in increasing value. Its unfortunate, because guys like Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, who should benefit from Mahomes tearing it up, wont benefit much, if anything long term.

Collectors only chase QBs, and though there have already been some incredible things happening, guys like Goff, Cousins and even Fitzpatrick to a surprising degree are the only ones that are blasting off. 

Its worth noting that I am NOT complaining about these guys having huge values attached to them – that is awesome and great to see. Im complaining that its perpetuating this notion that WRs, RBs, and everyone else are worthless by comparison in a long term situation.

I have harped on this situation for a long time, mainly because its become such a secondary market shit show outside of the Panini legacy sets that drive QB prices through the roof. Trying to find a Mahomes Contenders right now or a Mahomes Treasures RPA right now would likely be among the hardest things to do at any reasonable price.

As much as the mania is taking hold, I just wish that the other players would catch as much fire as they deserve to. As mentioned before, its just one of those things where career longevity and HOF potential is so slim, that its hard to justify. Then again, when this hobby is just meant to be fun and not an investment, maybe that’s where the answer lies.