I have said a number of times that if you arent a QB and you arent a rookie, chances are you are not going to have much value in football any longer. Although sales seem to be up relative to previous years, secondary market values continue to be a challenge for most of the card companies. One could argue that the increase in sales has all but entirely been accounted for by the advent of group breakers, local shops seem to be having a slightly better time overall with selling the most popular American sport.

This almost begs a certain question of shouldered burden of ripping wax. If GB spots are a much less costly way to engage with opening boxes of product, does that devalue the cards on the secondary market that seem to be from forgettable players or at least forgettable sets? I would say that it seems like that. Sure, there are always exception to the rules, but we consistently see that football is about as volatile a market as exists. Players are getting cut for lack of performance much earlier on in their already short career, which already has a huge impact on prospecting value in the NFL. 

With that, QBs are really the only position on the value spectrum that have major potential, and now that we see teams are moving on from draft picks two years in, that doesnt say much about hitting the lottery with your investment. For every late round Dak Prescott or a top pick like Wentz/Goff, there are 5-10 others on a yearly basis that go nowhere. Look at 2012, 2013, 2014 and even 2015 to a degree. Not many success stories. Funny how that works in the NFL, as it is literally 100% different in NBA and MLB.

If a running back comes into the league at 20, he has a maximum of 10 years to accumulate a career’s worth of stats to be valuable enough to make sense to a secondary market investor. In baseball, players dont even hit their peak until 10 years in sometimes, and basketball is even more likely that a player could start being impactful day one and play for decades. The NFL is about as far off of that as anything, and its depressing that the injury potential is driving careers to extinction so early these days.

So, now that we know that tiny sample size out of every year’s 40 player rookie premiere class are actually successful, what do we do with the hundreds of thousands of other autographs and rookie cards that are released every year. For the most part, people will rip them in group breaks until the cows come home, but very few are actually buying the way they should after the initial release buzz has worn off. 

We see the secondary market can soften by up to 75% in some cases less than 8 weeks after a card hits shelves. Its literally insane how little half life these examples can have. Panini’s bullish investment in an exclusive NCAA license has forced these new co-branded sets down our throat, but the secondary market has long shown how little support there is for the cards later on in the season. Some of the products do look great, which is good for a number of reasons, but no one seems to care about the top picks in their college uniforms once pro stuff becomes available.

Believe it or not, I would say there are a batch of products from each company in each sport that cements whatever that manufacturer’s legacy might be. In football, unless a card comes from one of these brands, it will be subject to a more intense volatility that doesnt exist for any other product. 

If I had to identify the football “legacy” brands that are still in current production, its pretty simple. National Treasures, Contenders, and MAYBE Prizm if you really held my feet to the fire. One could argue Flawless or Immaculate has made their way into this, but only for very specific cards. Rookie cards in Flawless arent holding up over the years like the others do, and that has to be the scariest example there is. Yup, you buy a 1500 dollar box, but the main hits in 90% of the boxes will soften to the point of melted ice cream by the time the next card season starts. That is just fucking stupid. In fact, its so fucking stupid that I hate myself for continuing to be addicted to football cards. 

What makes this more troubling beyond just the secondary market value, is the people who make up the secondary market dont SEEM to have grown in size, despite the fact that group breakers have added more wax ripping consumers to the pool. I would guess this speaks to being able to buy spots as a currency of participation in the hobby instead of buying both spots and singles. I see a lot of people wanting to drop 50 bucks on a good team for a break, but not many who want to spend that 50 bucks on the cards generated by that spot. Instead, they would much rather just go for another spot.

Its created a bit of a gambling atmosphere within an environment that already hinges on hopeless addicts like myself to function. The challenge has always been bringing more consumers to the secondary market, which in turn floats the primary market that most of the shops depend on. Outside of a very small handful of sets in the NFL, that doesnt exist. 

I would heavily argue that Panini has done very little to show that they are committed to doing what is right to make good looking cards. They always come back at me and say that opinion can change collector to collector, which is true. However, I dont see the current team at Panini as responsible for adding to the batch of legacy sets that exists. Contenders has been around for multiple decades, and same could be said about NT. Other than Prizm, Immaculate and Flawless, there arent many new creations that people fawn over. Secondary market performance shows that there is still a huge gaping hole of value between what Contenders and Treasures generates versus these products, despite a similar box cost. I would love for Impeccable to be in this discussion, but we see that is far from the case. 

To be completely honest, I wonder if this might have changed had they chosen to stick with the Donruss brand for all their sets instead of a brand like Panini which was unfamiliar to 99.9% of US based collectors. 

I want Panini to be successful, because as said before, Im a hopeless wax ripping addict. I want to see collectors buy on the secondary market the way they do in the MLB and especially in the NBA. A lack of international appeal, and a lack of career longevity will always be a huge part of why the NFL wont measure up. 

Can we at least just aim to add more products that have some compelling reason for existence other than filling one of the 35 other gaps on the calendar that are required by the license? I just want Panini to realize that they have been unsuccessful in that quest. As much progress as I think they have made in the last 2 years, creating a lasting legacy brand outside of Contenders and Treasures has been a giant gap, one that the other sports seems to have been able to accomplish.

If you have been a fan of this site for a while, you know that I have been preaching for a long time about more opportunities for collectors to buy directly from the manufacturers. I have often said that offering an online experience that is as easy and as positive as a retail one is something that cards have SORELY been missing.

For the last year or so, Panini has ventured into territory we really havent seen prior to this point. Not only offering a direct buy option on just about all of the products, but also offering a special program that provides incentives for people to utilize the service. I think this is a huge step for a lot of different reasons I have covered in previous posts. The question is, has this program really lived up to the hype it had upon creation, and how have those incentives held up?

Most of the FOTL products have specific special cards as part of the promotion, some of which have looked pretty cool:

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Stars and Stripes Auto Logo /13

2018 Origins Saquon Barkley Purple Auto RC /32

Overall, I think the program has been successful because of the direct sales idea in its own right. Regardless of the incentives and how they are perceived by the collecting public, we need more exploration of this space. The issue has been a few major things, both stemming from the ability to access low numbered cards on a guaranteed box hit.

Because such low numbered content is being offered in every FOTL box, they sell out very fast. Similarly, with the price not being more expensive to offer these cards, its a no brainer for many to at least try to chase down a box or two if they were already in the market. Therefore, we see website slowness, quick sell out times, and many collectors being left without access to the offer.

Funny enough, we have seen mixed reactions to the cards themselves, as for some reason, people dont think the guarantee works towards higher value, except in very specific circumstances. This hobby is generally filled with anal retentive rule mongers, who live their collecting lives chasing down “true RCs” and other garbage ideas like that. It seems like the arbitrary Beckett rules of 1980 still haunt us in 2018, and that is not a good thing for creating value in a set or subset that doesnt play along. Trust me, we should find ways to escalate value of every card, not try to exclude a huge portion from the limelight because it doesnt follow some ancient guideline that has no place anymore.

This also applies to the low numbered stuff, because collectors seem to value the cards more that arent guaranteed in packs. If you are guaranteed a hit /10 in a pack, it normally cant hold a candle to a similar /10 card pulled from product that doesnt guarantee a hit. Considering that each athlete in every sport signs no less than 10-15k cards in a year, I dont get why there is such a discrepancy.

I will say, the program hasnt been without hiccups, especially when boxes havent delivered the content that is promised. Prizm Football had issues with collation and lower numbered parallels being available in the FOTL boxes. 2018 Elite FB had a number of boxes that were missing the guaranteed exclusive content. Other runs were just not as good to open outside of the guaranteed hit. That being said, because of the limited runs, it almost doesnt matter, as box prices are frequently jumping in cost after it sells out online.

Bottom line, I want every card company to offer a program that gets to the heart of the sales process the way this one does – regardless of the success of the actual products themselves. Its time to offer a more convenient way for collectors to participate in the hobby, especially now that every other portion of buying cards has been online for decades. I dont get why online wax sales direct from the manufacturer has taken so long to catch on. I honestly dont.

If you havent figured out what player worn material is, I would challenge you to do some research and quickly. With the growing expense of gathering game used material from both stars and rookies, almost every company has switched to using some sort of player worn material instead of actual game used material as a substitute. In the past I have called PWM the sticker autograph equivalent of the relic card.

Basically, for the un-indoctrinated folks, PWM is a jersey that is worn at a photo shoot or signing, usually done in bulk, with the sole purpose of getting more yield to create relic cards for the given player. For almost 18 years, the card companies have used this practice for rookies, and for the first time this year, we are seeing an absolute INFLUX of PWM for everyone – not just rookies.

There is a reason for this, and its one that many will not be happy with.

On average, lets say that a product’s budget is split up into the cost of production, licensing, relics and autographs. Its more complicated than these four things, but lets keep this simple.

Over the last 10 years, every product released on the calendar has some sort of “hit” element – either an autograph or relic in every box. You can imagine, that would necessitate a lot of content to be generated in the last two buckets. Most autograph checklists have 50-100 players on it, and 90% of the products out there have some combo of autographs and relics.

Autographs continue to drive product value above and beyond any of the other categories. and also account for an increase in cost that is seen almost across the board. Although cost of production is up and the cost of licensing is up, those are standard price of doing business increases, some of which is self inflicted. As for autographs and relics, the price of doing business is dictated by the market, and that is not a friendly environment to exist in. Players are no longer dumb to the value of their participation and are demanding more money to sign.

For relics, the game used memorabilia market has exploded, especially for top NFL stars, as its clear that there arent a lot of games, and there is not a lot of opportunity to pick up stuff for your collection. To make matters worse, the value of relic content in a product is at rock bottom. Some could say that the community is wise to the fact that most material can have questionable authenticity, or the fact that PWM has diluted value across the board. Either way, pulling a game used relic in a pack that is single color or even multi color, is just not valuable any longer.

This would speak to the need to establish an alternative, especially one that can be done in bulk and with little overhead to the general product.

As for the rookies, its a completely different story. For them, the necessity of adding rookie relics to packs is ENTIRELY dependent on PWM. It has been for multiple decades, and stems from the fact that many rookies dont see the field until later in the year, and when they do, they arent always ready to just dump their game used jersey on the open market.

Even worse are the rookies that are important that dont see the field period. Look at many of the QBs or injured players who will sit out an entire year before a game will take place. Even if they did see the field, by the time the jerseys were found, authenticated, bought, processed and ready to go, its almost too late for any real yield. At most, it would be one jersey, with lots of single color relics, and very few cards. It doesnt hurt that for 20 years, collectors have shown time and time again that they either dont care or dont know its PWM in the card instead of game used.

There are two main questions that collectors ask in response, and they arent wrong in the sentiment. The first is “Why dont they just make fewer products or fewer cards?” and the second is, “why dont they wait to make the rookie stuff if the content isnt available?”

To answer the first and some of the second, its all about licensing, and guaranteed money that is due to the leagues at very specific times. They cant make fewer products because the license has specific product number requirements. Basically, they cant just scale back production to 10 products because they have 35 on the contract with the league. They could have fought back and said that 35 products wasnt a good idea, but sales numbers dont tell that story. For the manufacturers and consumers, numbers point to saying the more the merrier from just about every source I talk to.

As for timing, delays are not a good idea in Football, especially when products are dominated by rookies in almost every corner of the hobby. As much as we want Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady autos, their cost and their availability are not what draw. Its the rookie class. The rookies are what drive people to products, and collectors want rookie patch autos as much as they can. Therefore, the companies will drive that down our fucking throats until we stop buying. If they delay a rookie class because of relics that have worked for 20 years, someone is going to lose their job and be replaced by someone who is going to do it the previous way.

Honestly, ive become numb to the whole thing. I really have decided to avoid the thought process all together, mainly because its unavoidable. Same with the argument around autographs and stickers. There is so much variety in past and present releases, I can easily pick and choose which cards I want to avoid. I dont buy PWM jersey cards unless they are autographed. I know the relics arent game used, and therefore arent appealing to me. If I pull them, I just sell them to someone who doesnt care if its GU or PWM.

I dont necessarily give the pass on the matter though when someone asks about it. I really dont like that this is the direction things are going. Im just smarter about the way card companies are thinking about it. They dont care about the venom or the vitriol online unless sales drop. They arent dropping, so the business decision is made. Pretty simple.

We always hear about people who are the way I used to be about this stuff, and that’s not a bad thing. They shout their hatred from the rooftops and try to garner support from others to join their cause. Im glad those people are still around, because I have lost the will to scream myself hoarse about something that isnt supported by any real progress.

Im also curious how this photo continues to be a reason why people are so up in arms.

Yes, that is Mark Ingram at the rookie premiere, wearing a stack of Jeremy Shockey jerseys like an overgrown christmas sweater. This calls attention to a few things that I find pretty funny. One, people dont understand that the card companies could care less what number and player are on the jersey, because they know all of them will be cut up regardless.

Two, that same bunch thinks the PWM is at least run around the stadium a few times during the event, not realizing that Ingram probably put more use into those jerseys than any other in the history of the event. Due to time constraints, for all the jerseys worn at any shoot or event, the neck-hole is put over a player’s head and then taken off and thrown into a stack. That’s all it takes to be labeled “player worn.” So, for Ingram to wear those jerseys for 10 minutes in a joking way, is probably more use than 99.999% of the rest of the jerseys ever worn during this event.

For reference, wearing jerseys are not the only thing the rookies have to take care of, as they have to sign thousands of cards, meet with all the 25+ licensees who want their shot at the big guys, and do a bunch of press. There just isnt time for the rookies to run around in the 100 jerseys they have to wear. Most of them are only present because its a requirement by the NFLPA to attend and participate. Not a good recipe for having a good enough attitude to do a fashion show with so many different pieces of material.

Bottom line, player worn material should be labeled barely worn material, because that’s what it is. The situation is pretty much a juicy sausage that no one wants to see the making of. There is a reason why there is a ton of coverage of the rookie premiere, but none of the back rooms where they do the jerseys.

Understandably, my blog is read by a very small group of people these days, and this post isnt going to be enough to inform the uneducated Joe Collector on Reddit that posts every time they find out their Saquon Barkley card isnt actually game used. A lot of these concepts are making their ways outwards as well, with more and more of the industry using PWM to make a product work.

This is the reality we face, and its going to be up to us to decide how we want to participate very quickly here. If you dont like the direction, much like I dont, its time to figure out a way to avoid it or tolerate it. That’s the only way to really make a point, as its clear that every other way hasnt yielded much in results.

A big piece of news was released today, despite being a part of the running commentary for a while now. Topps announced that they had extended their exclusive agreement with MLBP through 2025, which means that no other companies will be able to produced licensed MLB trading cards for at least another 7 years.

Because this is going to stir up a whole bunch of shit, I wanted to offer my long form reaction, rather than just typing it out on twitter one tweet at a time. Being that there are two sides to this, its worth discussing both what the impact is from a collector perspective and a more behind the scenes perspective. Obviously, most people only care that Topps is going to be the only game in town for another long period of time, and not necessarily what that could mean for the periphery.

I can sum the first part of this perspective up pretty simply. As a collector, this news sucks. It just does.

Not only will collector favorites like Upper Deck continue to sit on the sidelines, but its going to perpetuate a lot of the existing trends that have been widely criticized across the hobby. Collectors want variety, I want variety, and we should be upset that this is the way things are. All four leagues have been under exclusives since 2015, and that isnt going away. It seems to stifle progress, risk taking, and all sorts of other shit, which doesnt bode well for onboarding new collectors. The card companies seem to just go with what they feel is working, and rely more on the star power present in the latest rookie class than anything else.

There is very little progress, similarly, towards the next big thing, of which I felt was digital collecting up until about a year and a half ago. There is very little incentive publicly to move the ball forward, at least from what we see, and not a lot of transparency as to what is coming down the pike.

Overall, a lack of competition is something that I have always hated, and continue to hate. Its not good for anyone, as its clear that Topps in MLB, or Panini in the NBA / NFL produce exclusively what everyone wants. We want to see Topps Chrome Football, Upper Deck SPA and Exquisite Basketball, and Flawless Baseball. It would be a great thing to have an environment where more collectors could speak with their wallets more effectively.

What people dont really seem to understand is that the leagues want the exclusives as much as the companies want to be the recipients of said exclusives. Cards seem to be more of a necessary evil for the major sports, and they definitely enjoy not having to navigate a very complicated market that is occupied by 3-4 licensees. They want to focus on the other things that generate more money, and leave the complexity outside of the agreements. Similarly, it allows them more flexibility interally, and the ability to be prescriptive with the company that owns the exclusive. They want control over their intellectual property and proprietary business, and its easier to do that through one company than many. If cards generated more money, and the business dictated more competition would bring tons more to the table, they may consider it. I dont think that is the case outside of World Cup stickers, however.

So, blaming Topps for the new exclusive agreement isnt necessarily misplaced aggression, but they are also not the only piece to this puzzle. More importantly, outside of product development and product management – the place where most of the community vitriol is directed – the exclusive does give a lot of power for investing in things that enables better products to be made. The product teams need to execute there, but the exclusive as a protective investment is important there.

Basically, player relationships, retailer engagement, collector programs, marketing, and inventory generation and control all benefit from a long term exclusive agreement. Topps can and has dedicated more funds to these areas, if not only because they know the license is theirs to hold. Panini has actually done a VERY good job with this on the NFL side, even though my opinion of their product execution remains about the same.

Things that make a better product are many, and a lot of them depend on some of these investments behind the scenes to ensure the money they pour into the business actually produces a strong ROI. Obviously when that translates into the product teams, there are going to be mixed results, as always. Before the exclusive market took over the card industry, shit still went wrong – A LOT. That is just part of the way things are, and I doubt that would change, even if split licenses came back.

Shitty products or production errors are as common in sports cards now as they ever have been. I guess that’s more a knock on progress to a greater ideal, but I also dont believe that a lack of incentive prevented progress there. It may not have promoted said progress, but its not like it wouldnt happen either.

Overall, we know that the Industry is starting to bounce back now, and doing so on a pretty consistent clip. That progress hasnt gone unnoticed by the manufacturers, and its a big reason why we should expect them to stay quiet when the leagues continue to want to do business on an exclusive level. They dont want to stifle that progress in their own business, nor lose the favor with each of the leagues they work with.

Even more than that, if we know the leagues want exclusivity, we should consider what might happen if someone like Topps doesnt get this done. Topps has the longest running business in cards, and is the only company with any real place in the public consciousness with cards. Upper Deck is there too, but they arent as relevant these days. If Topps doesnt get this exclusive, the business would likely go to Panini, exclusively. There was some rumors of a split license back a year ago, but the discussion doesnt seem to have been anything more than that. If you dont like what Topps is doing with baseball, are you similarly comfortable with them being completely gone as well? Hell fucking no. Topps is baseball cards, and you are kidding yourself if you believe that isnt the case. I mean, 99.99% of the US population hears Panini and thinks of a grilled sandwich. That’s not good for anyone.

We shouldnt give up the fight to end this practice, and the only way for that to happen is to continue to engage directly on every level of the industry. This means talking directly to the manufacturers, the distributors, and surely your local shop owners and breakers. They have power as much as you do, and your feedback does get reviewed. You may not hear a direct response, but it doesnt fall as much on deaf ears as you might think. Business things like this exclusive arrangement are likely not going to be up for discussion, but the way you engage with and purchase products are always worth a review.

Net net, go through how you engage with the hobby and the industry and find what works for you. If this means you are done with cards, sorry to see you go. If this means you find a more balanced approach, that’s fine too. Overall, its time to come to terms with the fact that the exclusives are here for the foreseeable future, and we will have to deal with it. Its not a collecting utopia, but its also far from the worst thing that could happen.

Hey guys, ‘member when the Strasburg Supefractor sold for $25k and we all went nuts? Hey guys, ‘member when everyone was saying the Ohtani Superfractor would sell for $65k and we all were left wondering how that could happen? Well guys, its time we all start to look at the recent sale of the Mike Trout superfractor at a reported $400k tag, and realize none of that other stuff matters. This is the big dog, and in all likelihood, it may never happen again.

Trout is the best player in baseball over the last decade, and its not even close to a competition. His sabermetric stats are off the charts, and what’s even more insane is that they seem to be getting better not worse. Yes, friends, Mike Trout hasnt reached the summit yet, and when he does, im not sure what more will be said.

Honestly, I think this sale says less about Mike Trout and more about the ceiling that exists on modern cards in the hobby today. There are really only a handful of players that can sniff this range, and its pretty clear who they are. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Tom Brady, and Mike Trout. That’s about it. I think there are certain arguments that can be made for other players, but that’s a very small list of titans to be reviewed.

Modern cards survive on contrived scarcity combined with BGS introducing hyper-mint grading services to the industry. Without those two things, there isnt a discussion about cards like this Mike Trout. For vintage, the cards that are worthy of a safe at Ft. Knox are much more about condition and age, as well as the fact that almost all the benchmarks are one of a few in a given market. The players are all dead, which means that there wont be off the field incidents that will tarnish their legacy, or even injuries that can end a career. All that will be said has already been said in some capacity, and there is comfort in collecting that way for many people.

Vintage will forever be the gold standard, and though Mike Trout’s card is like a pit bull in a sea of puppies, it will never live up to the best examples from the pre-war and post war eras. There was a recent sale of a 2.5 million dollar Mantle recently, including some speculation that one other may be in the 10 million dollar range. That’s Honus Wagner type company, and that’s saying something.

As said above, this sale should tell you that no matter how good some modern player is, or how insane his rookie card might be, its still not close to the best of the best. It will never be close. Not sure if that is more crazy than sad, but maybe a little of both.