Now that Contenders has been out for a few days, we are starting to see some of the bigger hits pop up. In terms of Panini’s overall product calendar, Contenders might only fall behind National Treasures in terms of the secondary market value of the singles, but where does it fall overall?

As of yesterday – two of the biggest 1/1s in the product have shown up. Will their value be hurt because there is a 1/1 for each variation? Doesnt look like it:

2012 Contenders Trent Richardson Championship Ticket 1/1 Auto

2012 Contenders Andrew Luck Championship Ticket 1/1 Auto

Others have also made an appearance, which include veteran base cards:

2012 Contenders Drew Brees Championship Ticket 1/1

2012 Contenders Bryce Brown Championship Ticket 1/1 Auto

2012 Contenders Dwayne Allen Championship Ticket 1/1 Auto

I have said numerous times that the Topps Chrome Superfractors have continually shown that they are the most valuable examples of the year, even more than the National Treasures 1/1 logo autos. Even the Finest Superfractors carry a ton of value. The aura of the Superfractor has trumped every last effort by every company since 2010 to produce an NFL licensed card that is more valuable. I dont think the Contenders championship tickets are at that level any ways.

I do think that other than Chrome, they might end up taking the second spot away from National Treasures due to a poor design this year, combined with the change in logos on the Nike Jerseys.

If I am a collector who wants the top chase card for the 2012 season, I am going straight to the Topps Chrome Superfractor. After that, its pretty much a toss up. With great design for the RPS rookies in Contenders this year, I think its definitely in line to be near the top.

Earlier today, it seems as though an obscure sports cards based article has re-ignited a debate over the state of the hobby in general. I personally hate these types of articles because it evokes extreme knee jerk reactions that have relatively no basis in reality. If there is one thing that everyone needs to understand – the hobby will never cease to be. It just wont die like people expect it to.

People will continue to collect, even if the industry is defunct. Ask all those people that collect odd toys. All of that being said, the industry is never guaranteed to be around for an extended period of time, but I will say that it doesnt seem like there is any reason to believe that it will be going away any time in the future.

The main point of many of the scathing reports that surface is that collecting cards is no longer attractive to kids, which will therefore be it’s eventual demise. This is something I agree with on the attraction, but it is nothing to be worried about. In fact, I think we have all been over sensitized to how children are or are not involved in the general goings on of our favorite past time. I realize that as children, many of us were exposed to cards, but it was a different time with different stimulating factors. Card companies have realized that children are not the money drivers, and have shifted focus to adults who want to spend their more available disposable income. This is MOST DEFINITELY the right decision.

You know what the funny part of it is? Even though the industry’s target market is now adults 18-45, the kids have adapted with it. If companies put out kid friendly products, they fall on their face due to lack of adult attracting content. Yes, the kids like big hits too.

Regardless, its hard to deny there are fewer kids these days, and that is fine. With social media and the internet, there are now two groups of people that should be courted with excess, as the opportunity is huge. The first are sports fans, and the second are international based collectors. Topps and Panini have done their best to make their presence felt in these venues, and I believe that both are growing the install base better than has been the case in the last 10 years. That is a good thing.

The crazy part about all of this is that despite the massive changes that have been made in licensing over the last few years, everything is relatively the same. That is the problem that never seems to get fixed. Although we have had sweeping changes in the way the card companies communicate about the products themselves, there have been no sweeping changes in the ways the products are made. Each product continues to deliver relatively the same content, which is fine for existing collectors, but a turn off to new collectors. Why get into a hobby where each player has the same card produced 100 times over the course of one year. I have always been supportive over the number of releases, only because I know how expensive it is to obtain and maintain a league license. However, it forces the card companies to churn out cookie cutter products just to make ends meet.

There needs to be more innovation in the industry, and I honestly believe that the collectors themselves have better ideas than a lot of the brass at many of the big companies. The issue is that many of the card company employees are bound by their notions of a bottom line, so they confine their ideas to meeting it. Collectors are more free spirited, and though they may come up with some ridiculous ideas, there is gold in them hills. Unique content needs to be driven to meet the needs of a changing economical and sociological atmosphere, not continuing to deliver the same product 18 times in one year.

Topps may have garnered extreme reactions to their exclusive in baseball, but I have seem more out of their products that have long term legs, than any other company in any sport. They are FAR from presenting an ideal situation in the sports in which they have a license, but they do go outside the (wax) box in a lot of ways other companies are not comfortable doing.

Guys, here is the skinny on this. I dont think that there is trouble on the way, but I dont think there is nothing to worry about either. I will say this – kids or the exclusive license are not of any concern to me. The only concern I have stems from the ability to creatively progress normal content to keep people interested. I dont think kids have anything to do with that.

Here is the article in question:

http://www.beauregarddailynews.net/article/20130210/NEWS/130209651

A much more well written approach to this:

http://www.petewilliams.net/blog/?p=748

Every year, Contenders is released, and for a few weeks there are people in the hobby who go into detective mode. Not because they are trying to crack any sort of code, but because they are trying to speculate which of the Contenders auto tickets are not showing up on eBay. They are either contenders auto set builders, or flippers, but they both want to get in before the prices get high. The speculation can result in a windfall of cash if the results are correct. If not, it could be hundreds of dollars down the drain. It is the only time in the hobby where a player with no production on the field, can be worth TONS off the field.

The reason this is so important, is that there can be a ridiculous price tag put on a full auto set with the SSPs:

2009 Contenders Auto Master Set With SSPs

Here are some examples from previous years – note the price tag:

2011 Contenders Greg McElroy SSP Ticket Auto

2011 Contenders Tyron Smith SSP Ticket Auto

2010 Contenders Blair White SSP Auto

Since the beginning of Panini’s blog, they have slow played the release of the SSP list to maximize hits on their site, but also to keep people buying and searching. Earlier this week, they released the first batch of numbers. Now that retail Contenders also has autos, it can drastically affect perceptions on the way the cards seem to be pulled. Therefore, I think the best idea is to hold off until retail starts hitting shelves. This way, we get the lowest print runs first.

Here are some of the prices for the already released SSPs:

2012 Contenders Dont’a Hightower SSP Auto /47

2012 Contenders Courtney Upshaw SSP Auto /57

2012 Contenders Jeff Demps SSP Auto /99

The reason to wait for retail is simple – there are a lot of autos in retail, mostly lower tier guys, that dont show up until weeks after hobby. In 2010, Carlos Dunlap, a DL who plays for the Bengals, was being pulled at a drastically low rate. His auto tickets were selling for hundreds. Then retail hit, and all of a sudden, his auto was everywhere. The tickets dropped like a rock, which meant a lot of lost dough for the people that thought he was an SSP.

I really like the Contenders set this year, and from the looks of it, this year’s product might end up being one of the best it has ever been. Its hard not to get caught up in the hype, as its obvious that Contenders is one of the more anticipated sets of the year. The SSP program, now more likely contrived by Panini instead of forced by the athletes, has been embraced by most. That says something about how people view the long term value potential of player’s cards who will never end up being superstars on the field.

Here is the full list:

With the release of 2012 Prizm, Panini sure was mum on the release of Contenders – maybe for a reason. I think they believed that a lot of people were going to buy the product just because of the name on the box, and for the most part, they were right. That hasn’t stopped people from voicing their frustration over many of the different situations that are plaguing the product, and I think that in most cases, people have a legitimate gripe.

Although the 1998 tribute design is AWESOME, and there are a lot of reasons why 2012 Contenders might be the best design since that time, there are severe discrepancies between advertised content and what is being delivered in each box. On the sell sheet, Panini advertised two on card autos per box, with small print saying advertised content could be changed at any time. Everyone who has opened a few boxes knows that the live on card autos are falling one every box and a half in some cases. There are a ton of redemptions, and for the most part, collectors are unsure if they are going to be receiving an RPS card with a sticker or a hard signed signature. For the first time since 2009, some RPS rookies are being offered as stickers instead of on card.

Panini has done a bit of parallel multiplication to help people forget this fact, and for the most part, it seems to be more than welcome. The addition of Playoff Ticket Autos /99 and Cracked Ice autos /20 seem to be something that collectors are chasing, even though I believe it wasn’t a good idea to fix something that wasn’t broken.

They have also added an extra auto hit to the box, in most cases, although it is likely that the extra hit is not going to be something worth the addition.

Additionally, it is looking like every card has a variation – with very few exceptions. From 2009-2010, the photo variations were limited to the RPS attendees. Although there are two autos that have yet to show up, we can speculate that they might be the exception to the rule instead of the rule. Because of the SP list driving value above player worth every single year, Im beginning to think this could complicate things more than ever before. Obviously, when things get more complicated, collectors don’t usually react well.

When you consider how much loyalty has been invested in Contenders over the years, even in spite of constant disappointment (like this design and this design), Panini should take some time to fix the issues that have been presented. Similarly, Topps had issues with redemptions in Chrome and offered Blue Wave packs to everyone who redeemed a card. I would hope that they figure out a way to make this right, as I don’t think that we are in a good spot right now.

I have already posted prior that I very much think this year’s Contenders is drastically improved over 2011′s offering. I have also said that there are a number of drawbacks that have been problematic in the overall release of the product. Now that we are getting a more complete picture, I think its a good idea to break down my opinion on these things.

RPS Ticket Design – PLUS

I love the 1998 ticket design, and this design is practically identical. Last year’s was absolutely a visual train wreck, where these look a lot nicer in every way, shape, and form. There was a shift in where the player was going to be pictured, which made the design a little less nice, but it is still one of the better designs I have seen in a while.

2012 Contenders Robert Griffin III Auto Ticket

2012 Contenders Doug Martin Auto Ticket

Big Ticket Pulls – PLUS

Even though there is a greater chance of losing money than ever on Contenders, there are a lot of parallels to give people a big pay day when they hit a big name. This includes cracked ice autos /20, playoff ticket autos /99, and of course the championship ticket out of 1. There are also golden tickets for the third straight year, so those should be starting to pop up soon.

2012 Contenders Andrew Luck Rookie Playoff Ticket Auto /99

2012 Contenders Alfred Morris Auto Ticket /20

2012 Contenders Quad Auto – Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger

RPS Stickers – MINUS

For some reason, Panini is using sticker autos for players at the photo shoot for the first time since 2009. This is a huge drawback, even though a lot of the guys arent really THAT special. I think it is a much more likely situation that the cards wouldnt have gotten completed, so rather than adding to the massive amounts of redemptions, they decided to go with stickers. Im not sure I agree with the decision.

2012 Contenders Joe Adams Auto Ticket

2012 Contenders Ronnie Hillman Auto Ticket

Box Breaks with 1 on card auto – MINUS

I broke three boxes of Contenders today, and only pulled one live on card auto – IN THREE FREAKING BOXES. There were two per box over the last few years, and I wish this were the case again. Even though there are now 6 autos per box, many of them will end up being junk. Considering the price tag can range from 140 per box to 160, that is a big drawback. I didnt do horrible on my boxes, with my best pulls being Cousins, Kuechly and Richardson. However, it should have been a lot better. I got 2 redemptions for Toon and Stephen Hill, which sucks, as I dont even know if they will be stickers or on card.

Design of Non Photo Shoot Rookies – HORRENDOUS MINUS

Man, these cards are a complete wreck, if not only because Panini just slapped the white box at the bottom of the card, instead of extending out the player. It looks like the players’ legs are amputated.

2012 Contenders Kirk Cousins Auto Ticket

2012 Contenders Matt Kalil Auto Ticket

Design of Inserts and Insert Autos – PLUS

I really like a lot of the die cut inserts and insert autos that are available in the product, even though all of them are sticker autos. The photography in the rookie stallions set is tremendous, and I think that Panini really stepped up their game this year. Hopefully as we see more of what is actually going to be the norm, they will go back to this well.

2012 Contenders Robert Griffin III Rookie Stallions

2012 Contenders Peyton Manning MVP Contenders Die Cut

Redemptions on top of Redemptions – MINUS

Its not even possible to put into words how many redemptions are in this product. Considering it was delayed a couple of months as it is, there should not have been this much of a problem. Panini has a horrible track record for the last few sets, and Contenders looks to be the worst. So far, the biggest name redemption on the list is Russell Wilson, but there are plenty of others too.

2012 Contenders Russell Wilson Auto Ticket Redemption

Ridiculous amounts of variations – Jury Out

Every ticket has a variation, and they are photo variations instead of just stupid airbrushing like last year. The issue is that this will create a huge over saturation of autos for each player. There is no saying if there will even be SPs this year because of the situation that every ticket auto seems to have a variation.

2012 Contenders Vick Ballard Photo Variation Ticket Auto

Overall, Contenders has a long way to go, but it is definitely getting better. That is always welcome in my book.