Reviewing Long Term Holds for the Modern WWE Market Given Current Outlook

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Lets look at the environment right now, because its not a pretty picture all around. Stock markets are down, crypto is way down, inflation is way up, and an international conflict is causing all sorts of problems across the world. This has led to a hobby downturn over the last quarter that looks to be the first true test of the boom since 2020. Crypto crashes have happened before and will happen again, and the stock market was up so big before, this could be a cooling period to reset things. Cards have been up, up, and very up during the last few years, and aside from a few small dips, have rarely had issues in the long term outlook. This looks a bit more serious.

In discussing the boom on this site over the last few years, I have mentioned that when things start to regress a bit, niche cards like WWE would be the first to feel the effects. Prizm was already coming down, but for the first time we are seeing most of the entire WWE spike cool a bit. This has sent some of the investors to the exits, but others have hunkered down a bit and bought the dip. Given that this economic and hobby downturn could be extended in length, here are some of the things I wouldnt sell off just yet.

Anything of the Rock

This is one of my favorite subjects, because the Rock is the most famous person involved in the WWE market. He may not be the top wrestler of all time, but he is the most influential person to ever be involved in wrestling, having become the one of the most sought after movie stars in the world. He also has a TV show that chronicles his youth, and has been toying with a political career as well.

For this reason, he has become the most valuable wrestler in modern cards (he was a generation past everything vintage). Not only that, but his cards from Chrome and Prizm have set modern sales records across the entirety of this niche area of the hobby, and Im still confirming details on his 1/1 Prizm Black which has the potential to break every possible record for wrestling cards overall.

I dont think there will be any doubt that success in WWE hinges on the Rock, and his stuff should be held as tightly as possible – especially shiny stuff. With recent big sales in Goldin’s spring auction and gigantic $20k+ private sales of his Gold Prizms, the Rock has staying power that I dont think will ever be replicated. Unlike Hogan, he has very few of the outside of the ring issues that can limit potential, and his featured place atop US pop culture will give him legs that most wrestlers dont have.

Big Wrestling Rookie Cards

One thing that has come with new people joining the WWE chase is that concepts from the big 4 sports have come along with them, including the increased value of rookie cards. The good thing about WWE programming is that it is designed to draw you in and create a week to week story you must follow. Cards have a very similar effect, and combining the two means that people will likely be sticking around with wrestling cards, even if the market dips.

I have collected sports cards since 1987, and I always loved the rookie cards of my favorite players, just like every other sports collectors. I was shocked to find out how much it wasnt a thing in WWE, as collectors seemed to value name and rarity over rookies. Now that this concept has changed dramatically, I dont think it will stop.

Sets like 2013 Topps, 2014 Chrome, and 2015 Chrome and Undisputed feature huge first cards of today’s top stars, and I see those being very valuable long term regardless of what happens in the economy. When the existing wrestling collectors started adapting their collecting habits to match incoming new eyes, the toothpaste was out of the tube – you cant put it back in.

Over the last year, I have seen rookies from Roman Reigns, Becky Lynch, Alexa Bliss, Sasha Banks and Seth Rollins shoot up in value, mainly because of how the market has shifted to be more focused on rookies, and these cards shouldnt be among any that snap downwards in value the way some of the lesser stuff might.

Unopened Chrome and Finest Wax

When Topps decided to invest in their WWE license for the first time back in 2014, they ran a test product in WWE chrome. It was released as standalone product for the first time, and offered the first all chrome set since the heritage sets in the 2000s. Because there wasnt an established legacy market yet for wrestling cards, pre-orders were small and the run was less than 300 hobby cases, with some estimates around 250. That’s the smallest run for any chrome product in the history of the brand.

Considering Chrome has been around for decades, the actual scarcity of the first standalone Topps Chrome branded WWE product is a huge deal. Its also why cards from the Rock and Roman reigns were setting records at the beginning of 2022. There just isnt any of this stuff to go around. Since the chrome spike started, box prices have gone from $100 to $1500 in cost, and the scarcity will prevent those original chrome boxes from dropping, regardless of what happens with the cards inside.

Similarly with 2015 Chrome, which was a larger set and a larger run, the wax has spiked to an insane degree. This set also features more modern superstars like Bliss and Flair, along side more fabled veterans like Rock and Hogan. There were more parallels available too, with Red Refractors, Atomics, and others making their first appearance. Even though there is a bit more of 2015 to go around, its still a minuscule amount compared to other sports. Like 2014, the actual scarcity will contribute to long term increases in value as people chase the big cards.

As Chrome came back to WWE with Finest in 2020, the legacy brands had a renewed interest with collectors and investors alike. For the first time, WWE wax prices SHOT up to double what they originally sold at, and have since doubled again. Finest was a new offering for WWE during that run, and with the Topps license ending in December 2021, it wont be made again until Fanatics takes back over in 2026/27. That creates a short run of both Chrome and Finest to drive up wax prices long term.

Superfractors and Prizm Blacks

Even before the boom came to WWE, the market was driven by rare cards. The rarer the card, the higher the expected value – just like in the major sports. The difference here is that the comparative value of the superfractors to other rare cards wasnt there. Now that the new crowd has invaded the ranks, they bring their affinity for shiny stuff to the market with them. Superfractors have shot up in value, because it is the card to own in many of the sports out there.

With the release of 2021 Transcendent, WWE was exposed to the first of the super-premium versions of the supers, and as expected, the market responded in kind. These cards are the nicest wrestling cards ever produced, and will sit at the peak of swag mountain for anyone holding them long term.

As 2022 Prizm hit the market, a new era of insanely valuable 1/1 cards came along with it, including public sales at and above $15k, as well as private sales well into the $20k range. When the Rock’s prizm black 1/1 eventually sells, it could be the among the most expensive wrestling cards ever sold.

Because these cards have legacy implications across the mainstream hobby, its clear that both the superfractors and Prizm black 1/1s will continue to have extreme value above and beyond other WWE cards, and even some of the major sports investment pieces. These cards are really the first modern examples to cross over, and I dont expect there will be an additional drop above and beyond what is happening in the greater hobby environment.

Big Transcendent WWE Cards

When Topps announced they were bringing the ultra premium Transcendent brand to WWE, I was floored. At the time this came around in 2019, the highest price a box of WWE cards ever sold at release was like $250, with Undisputed topping the charts every year. I never thought that anything in WWE would ever move with a box price of $12,000.

An interesting thing happened. Every break sold out, every box was opened, and Topps did three separate releases of Transcendent with three VIP parties to boot. Because Transcendent MLB has become a staple across multiple configurations, WWE Transcendent cards attracted an audience that wasnt focused on WWE. It also featured content that had never been offered before in the WWE market, with premium autographs, framed sets, and incredible looking unique cards.

We saw this explode in 2021 with the above mentioned superfractors, as well as 1/1 oversized framed art cards by Garbage Pail artists. Many of the top pieces sold for multiple thousands of dollars, despite the fact that the Panini takeover was looming. Because only 150 boxes of Transcendent were produced during the 3 year run, the set has a place that is unlike any other WWE product out there. More importantly, its likely that 95% of the wax has been opened, if not higher, which means sealed boxes wont exist the same way it does for other products. Every card is out there, every big hit has been pulled, and most of them are being held in PCs that will never see the light of day.

Because of that, many of these big Transcendent cards will achieve huge prices when they eventually do sell. To add fuel to that fire, every big name that has been a part of wrestling, except for the Rock, was in this set, including cut autographs of people like Andre the Giant and Macho Man.

The great thing about WWE is that so many of us grew up living in the world of wrestling, even if we left sometime during our transition to adulthood. That nostalgia drives a ton of buys in cards overall, and it wont be any different for these cards. The market will always have its ups and downs, but man, I hope people see past the dark clouds in the sky and realize there is still a lot of sunny days in the future.

2022 Panini Select WWE: 5 Things to Watch

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Coming off a landmark release with WWE Prizm, we are finally getting the third WWE product in scope for Panini with another shiny product. Select has long been a collector favorite for a number of reasons, but most recently turned into a lower budget outlet for collectors to get their fix of chrome style cards. Because Prizm is the flagship set for Panini, it has left Select to occupy a secondary position with Mosaic and Optic in the other mainstream sports. Curious to see what we get to see with the first version of Select in the wrestling market. Here are a few things to watch as we get closer to release.

First Cards for Big Names and New Gimmicks

As part of the preview, we are already guaranteed to see Ronda Rousey make her Panini WWE debut. As a worldwide household name and current champion, Rousey’s presence in the set was definitely expected, but no less exciting. Her cards are highly collected by a number of big WWE community members, and I would expect her to have a focus similar to Brock Lesnar as we get into the thick of things. Unlike Lesnar, Rousey hasnt had other Panini cards before, so her debut could bring new value.

Similar to Rousey, its possible we get to see another debut with Select. Depending on Production timeframes, we could get to see the first WWE cards of Cody Rhodes in a very long time. After spending years on the independent scene and a few years with AEW, Wrestlemania saw the American Nightmare back home to the place he began his career. If included, he will also be the first person to have cards in all three manufacturers who have made wrestling cards – Topps, Panini and Upper Deck. Im especially intrigued to see this fun fact in action, and feel that his cards could be sleeper hits with crossover collectors.

In addition to debuts for new names, we should see our first chrome cards of major gimmick changes, like the heel Big Time Becks gimmick for Becky Lynch, and others. Because of the hype surrounding Prizm, some of the misses there were overlooked, including the absence of Macho Man and Ric Flair, who will both hopefully have cards in this set.

More Affordable, More Fun, Better Designs?

There were a number of Wrestling collectors that revolted against Prizm because wax prices skyrocketed leading into release. Even now, Prizm is the most expensive readily available Wrestling product ever made, with only Transcendent eclipsing the cost. Like we see with most Panini products, online dealers could cause problems with setting cost on Select Wax as well, depending on how they feel the market can support high wax costs.

So far, we have already seen the speculative price for Revolution WWE climb to astronomical levels, despite very little evidence that the product will do much to support a price like that given the content included. Being that Select is meant to target a different portion of the hobby, Im hoping the cost to rip it will be much lower than what we saw with Prizm.

Similarly, I find Select to be the best looking Chrome style product that Panini makes. The parallels are done better, the designs are cooler, and this could be the first product from Panini that offers the relic and relic autographs that were absent for Prizm and likely absent for Revolution.

We are also getting our first dose of some of the crazier stock patterns with retail exclusive Tiger Stripe and Elephant parallels, but seeing the cool photos that they are using in the set will make a number of these cards much more collectible.

Base Variations = More Big Hits

For Prizm, most of the value comes out of the rare base parallels that are available through the checklist. We are already seeing a preview that mentions a 300 card set, all of which have multiple border variations to collect. There are 4 types of borders, including one that is a retail exclusive. Each of these borders should have a parallel structure meaning there will be 3 more golds to chase, and 3 more black 1/1s to chase as the boxes get ripped.

Because the scarcity isnt going to be the same, the value of these alternate base formats should make them much more affordable to collectors like me who want to catch them all. Prizm golds and blacks have already staked their claim as some of the most expensive wrestling cards of all time, and for most of the WWE faithful, were out of reach. These could be MUCH much different.

Can the Checklist Measure Up?

When I first saw the post on Panini’s site that gave us the goods for WWE Prizm’s massive checklist, my jaw hit the floor. It was clear that aside from a small number of key omissions, if there was a wrestler that was important to WWE, they were in the set. First time autographs of guys like Batista and Great Khali were interesting additions as well, and that’s just the beginning.

Now we look to another set, that operates in a very similar space to what we got with Prizm. I dont think there are many people who are expecting the checklist to be as strong in that respect, but there is a lot of expectation that Panini continues their momentum. I already mentioned Flair and Savage, but people like Sable and Vince are also prime targets for fun checklist targets.

On the flip side, if Panini fails to offer a strong checklist, the product itself could be seen as Diet Prizm, and will drop lower than most are expecting.

Stickers Versus On Card Autographs

If I saw one major complaint other than pricing, it was Panini’s use of sticker autographs in Prizm. For most, on card autographs are the only acceptable signed cards to add to their collection, and personally I dont think they are necessarily wrong. Production timeframes from the beginning of the license on 1/1/22 to release right after Wrestlemania in April, likely prevented on card autographs from being done, but Select definitely has a longer lead time to make it happen.

As part of the preview, we are seeing stickers as part of the retail autograph set, which isnt necessarily an indicator that all cards will be stickers. That being said, it doesnt look good. Panini needs to find more ways to include on card signatures, even though the plan is probably to debut them in Immaculate or another high end set.

Topps found a way to make almost all of their sets feature aspects of hard signed cards alongside the sticker autos they used, and I cannot stress how much I want this to be a focus for Panini moving forward.

Im a huge fan of Select overall, and think this year’s design looks tremendous. I really hope the delivery is as good as the preview, as we saw execution dip with Prizm flaws that were rampant. I feel like this will be a redemption story for those mistakes, but we will have to wait and see. Hopefully the rest of the WWE market is ready for another chance at some awesome cards.

Hobby Downturn: Is the Sky Really Falling?

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As soon as things started picking up at the beginning of 2020, there was immediate speculation on what could be causing the meteoric rise in card values as the pandemic kicked into high gear. That same narrative was immediately accompanied by talk of a bubble, and of course, when it would burst. Just like no one could have ever predicted that a worldwide pandemic would contribute to one of the largest collectible booms in history, no one could have ever predicted it would last as long as it has.

According to CardLadder’s indexing, the hobby seems to be on a downward trend over the last few months, with growth heading in the direction of -8% for the quarter. Despite ups and down, the larger graph still shows pretty flat, which depending on your thought process could be both good or bad. For most of 2021, the incline was a steep upward trajectory that allowed many collectors and investors to throw chips anywhere on the table and come up with a win. Now that things have been much more flat, some of those same people are starting to wonder if the honeymoon is really over.

There are some major contributing factors overall, and ill do my best to give my take on a few of them, especially as social media seems to run with their own agendas and narratives. For the most part there is a split between people holding out for the start of the NFL season, and those that believe this is the sign of the end times. Im somewhere in the middle, and hope I can outline some of the ways I see the hobby trending from a disinterested third party point of view.

The Junk Slab Era

Earlier this week, PSA tweeted out that they were holding 3.6 million cards in backlog, waiting to be graded. This is after A) suspending submissions B) raising prices and C) making better grades seemingly more difficult to achieve. Because grading is a conflict of interest laden business model, making business decisions on the flow of their submissions speaks to a larger issue with the hobby as a whole.

Image 1 - PSA 10 2019-20 Panini Prizm Zion Williamson RC Rookie Card #248 Pelicans

Right now, the hobby ebbs and flows based on the way graded cards are valued across the different corners of the collecting universe. The problem is, there are so many graded cards out there, that the way the public perceives them has changed dramatically over the last 2 years. The hyper mint marketing ploy that each of the 19373 grading companies have employed has started to backfire, especially as more “Gem Mint” cards drop in value overall.

For the last 2 years, collectors have employed a “GRADE ALL THE THINGS!” approach to their collection, sending in everything from worthless base cards to high dollar investment pieces, all with the hopes of gaining more value and equity in their PCs. As a result, the junk slab era has come to be a major factor, with so many investors seeing dips in readily available cards drawing less value on the secondary market.

With the backlog of grading showcasing that there are an insane amount of cards still to enter the market, this flood has massive implications on the supply vs demand economics of the hobby. For so long, the promise of increased value in graded cards had driven keen collectors to take advantage of the situation, but that secret has been transformed into a wave of (no longer scarce) cards being put on the block and selling for less and less. The scariest thing, is that the tidal wave hasnt even reached the mainland, because as we see, a ton more cards are still waiting to be processed.

The End of the Pandemic Era

For most in the world, life is relatively back to normal, with only a few reminders that Covid is still raging as a major factor in the lives of many. Now that people are out and about, taking vacations, eating at restaurants, and living their existence to the fullest again, disposable income is starting to be applied to other areas of budgets.

I stand by the fact that the lack of opportunity to spend money is what kicked off the collectible boom, and now that those options are back, many more people have to balance their spending. Similarly, because of more people being out from isolation, gas prices spiked, and world conflicts made those situations 10 times worse. This has also led to massive inflation, alongside a lack of stimulus payments that gave many collectors the money to buy cards they wouldnt normally buy.

Right now, this is a perfect storm of contributing environmental factors, and I havent even begun to go through the crypto crash that has impacted a ton of source funds that some investors were using to invest in cards.

Increased Supply without Increased Demand

The value of cards as an asset is something that can be traced almost directly to two things – supply and demand. Basic economics at play. For the beginning of this boom, the demand for cards was insatiable, with many collectors seeing their access to wax and singles stripped away as more and more people entered the market.

As expected, the manufacturers immediately tried to match the demand with more supply, but due to pandemic worker shortages and material issues, most could not keep up in any real way. Now that we are going into the summer of 2022, some of that has normalized, with supply finally catching up as a result of increased production runs combined with all the factors listed above. Demand has cooled on certain things, and collector revolts against high prices in the lower classes of spending have led to major shifts in both the primary and secondary markets.

Certain things have been holding stable, but the areas seeing the most problems are the areas with the most supply. High run flagship sets with large retail configurations have seen cooling, as well as some of the top high end products. These offerings, whose prices have risen above the prospects of the tent pole hits have seen breakers move away from trying to fill their lists. Flawless Basketball had risen to over 20k per box before the hunt for the triple logoman card ended. F1 Dynasty released yesterday at $18k per case, which only contains 5 cards. The appetite for super premium releases seems to have shrunk, but its all about which of those products really feels the pain.

So far, the singles market at the top levels seem to be holding, with big sales still going down regularly at many of the big auction houses. If you go back to my posts on this topic from earlier, this is some of the ways I expected the end of the boom to go down. We will have to see if this quarterly downturn is temporary or if this slow decline leads to something more drastic.

Delays in Production

Even with more supply hitting the market, we are still seeing major production delays rippling through the calendar across each of the manufacturers. Its now into May, and we still havent seen 2021 Prizm Football, a product that usually hits before the beginning of the NFL season. With every manufacturer trying to cash in on the demand before it cools further, this is a direct result.

Most of the delays come from material shortages these days, but at the beginning of this, it was a combination of that plus lack of resources to put the products together once they were printed. At first this led to more demand for a decreased supply, but that situation has been turned on its head now that the hungry base of collectors is starting to move onto a ‘wait and see’ type of investment approach for many of the bottom 90% of the market.

Fear of Consolidation

As if things couldnt get more complicated, there is also a huge cloud hanging over the hobby coming sooner rather than later. Fanatics has acquired all the major licenses. Fanatics has also aquired Topps. This means that hobby consolidation is no longer a pipe dream, its a plan in its execution stage.

Even with the gigantic influence that Topps has had on cards for close to 100 years, collectors are starting to fear what could happen when Panini is removed from the equation. To date, Topps has found success in a lot of areas, but the investor crowd has entered this game when Panini owned the top two sports in the land.

Almost immediately after the boom began, many of the biggest sales went down in football and basketball, and focused on legacy sets that drive the Panini brand wagon. Although there are many theories that suggest those sets wont die due to further consolidation, its clear that there is a lot of trepidation around the future of investor friendly sets.

Honestly, this whole thing doesnt look like its set up for long term success. There are too many headwinds for the hobby to remain at an all time high. Now that doesnt mean its going to snap back to pre-boom prices, as that bell has already been rung. I also dont believe we are on the verge of a massive selloff, but its clear that the environment created by the factors described here could contribute to a drop that people might not be ready for. As always, that exit strategy needs to be in place, but I will close here by saying this isnt the time to pull every fire alarm. However, there is some smoke that will send people to the exits. Hopefully, things bounce back and this post looks more like chicken little and less like Nostradamus.

Big Bang Theory: The WWE Superfractor Market is Exploding Thanks to Some Big Sales (and Some Smaller Ones Too)

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If you have been reading this blog for a while, you know my affinity for Topps Chrome. Ive mentioned it multiple times that it is my favorite product and my go to set for acquiring my target PC subjects. The brand loyalty I have to Chrome is deep rooted in my childhood, with the set driving many trips to the local shop when I was growing up. Its also been one of the things that has driven some of the largest purchases I have made in sports cards.

Chrome is a legacy brand for a number of reasons, but most of it stems from the longevity of the product’s brand within the hobby, and its hulking values that have driven enormous sales volumes and secondary market values for decades. Collectors know what they are getting with Chrome, each and every time. Its a landmark product that has spanned multiple sports, non-sport, WWE, MMA, and everything in between.

The pinnacle of the brand has always been the refractor, but within the last 15 years, the true top of the mountain has been the 1/1 parallel of those, labeled a SUPERFRACTOR early on by Topps. Being that its the most important parallel in all of cards, it features a similar stock pattern that has spread to almost every trading card company on the planet. Yes, the superfractors are such a big deal, Panini, Leaf, and all the others have used the “Small Engine Turn” stock and made their own 1/1 parallels. That’s when its clear that everyone wants a piece of the magic.

In terms of WWE, the Superfractor has been around for a while, but its history is a bit more complicated. Because the products were built around the ideas of baseball sets, but configured in their own way, the Superfractors werent always the same as they were in other sports. In fact, some of the original examples had a print run of 25 from the first Heritage Chrome WWE sets, making them some of the highest numbered supers ever produced. Like many of the other older WWE cards, the bigger names in this set have skyrocketed in value over the last year.

All that being said, nothing has prepared the market for what happened to the Superfractors in the first standalone Topps Chrome branded set, first released in 2014. Ive mentioned in previous posts that 2014 Topps Chrome WWE had a minuscule print run. One of the smallest hobby configurations produced in the history of Topps Chrome as a mainstream brand. As part of that set, Superfractor parallels of the base cards, numbered 1/1, were included for the first time ever. The set featured two of the top tier WWE targets of 2022, with Roman Reigns and the Rock both having mega cards as part of the checklist. If I had to predict a six figure sale in WWE, I talked about one of the candidates yesterday in the Rock’s 1/1 Prizm black. The other candidate is the Rock’s 2014 Superfractor.

Back at the end of 2021, leading into 2022, a group of major sports collectors joined the WWE card niche ahead of the announcement of Panini obtaining the WWE license. Immediately, sets like 2014 and 2015 Topps Chrome became targets for them – more specifically the sister cards to the Prizm parallels that had dominated the hobby boom coming out of 2020. The gold refractors /50 and the Superfractor 1/1s exploded in value, with some $10 dollar pickups from months earlier becoming $1000 cards overnight. Remember, no supply and high demand kicks basic economics into high gear.

Within a few weeks, a 2014 Roman Reigns Superfractor Auto 1/1 had sold for $15,000, setting a record for modern WWE in the process. To that point, no public sale of a modern WWE card had ever broken the 5 figure mark, with only another Superfractor coming close. That card was from 2021 Transcendent WWE, which featured 1/1 autographed supers for the first time and last time in the product. Like others from previous Chrome sets, huge values were expected and received for the major 1 per box hits, leading to some of the largest sales in WWE card history.

To me, the Transcendent superfractor autos were the next step in the evolutionary process for the WWE market and remain my favorite wrestling cards Topps produced in their 20 year run with the license. They continue to be highly sought after by many WWE and non-WWE collectors, a chase that has been exacerbated by the increase in value for the 2014, 2015, 2020 and 2021 Chrome sets overall. Adding in 2020 and 2021 Finest, WWE has a treasure trove of shiny gold cards that have increased wax to dizzying heights on the products, with the older boxes capping out at 1200-1500 a box now. Collectors have seen this new market evolve into a monster, with most of the Chrome color reaching heights considered laughable only a few months ago.

Now that Prizm has entered the fold, more shiny goodness has brought huge prices to the market, and has fueled a continued spike for the shiny Topps products all around. Even the lowest tier superfractors available on the market cannot be had for less than a few hundred dollars, something that is driving many supercollectors insane. For those of us who were lucky enough to get our hands on some of the major examples early on in the Chrome lifecycle, those prices seem like we were paying for sticks of chewing gum by comparison.

I wholeheartedly believe there is no more safe harbor for anyone looking to add some of these gems to their PC. The secret of the WWE niche is out, and now that the dark corner has been illuminated, the major hits will start to climb to the values that are exemplified in the major sports. I fully believe a six figure WWE card is on the horizon, especially with insane auction results for people like Lewis Hamilton and other alternative cards. Hopefully we all get to flourish in the light of the flames, billowing from the market on fire with interest.

Is There a Six Figure Card in 2022 WWE Prizm?

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As we look at the last month since release, the first Panini WWE set is insanely top heavy. Much like most of the other versions of the product in the NBA and NFL, the major hits in WWE are getting values on the secondary market usually reserved for the four major sports. Multiple giant sales have broken modern records, and that should not be surprising.

When it comes to the Rock, Hulk Hogan, Stone Cold Steve Austin and Roman Reigns, there are a number of superstars that have the potential to occupy the top tier of values for this product. The main question I have is around the top of the mountain. As people continue to rip, and more of the bigger product hits are found, will there eventually be a six figure card that comes from this set?

Before you laugh at my thinking here, lets walk through some of the points as to why its possible. First, the Rock’s Gold Prizm /10 cards (so far) have all sold over $20k. Shawn Michaels Prizm Black 1/1 has had a reported sale from the seller at $28k. Bret Hart’s Prizm 1/1 Black was reportedly sold at $20k. All of these cards were sold raw. Given these examples, there are a few cards already that should sell for more than these, especially if they are 1/1 copies of the top tier subjects.

Right now, in my opinion, the Rock’s 1/1 Prizm Black is the top modern wrestling card there is. I think it will go for more than the 2014 Topps Chrome Superfractor and the 2015 Topps Chrome Superfractor, but those two cards are close in value to make this an even more interesting comparison. We also know that the Rock’s Prizm card is likely still out there, I think its unlikely that the others arent in someone’s personal collection or lost to the ages.

Given the other sales, its definitely possible to me that with the right circumstances and the right buyer, the 1/1 Prizm Black is a six figure card. Here is how I get there. First, it has to be a PSA 10, which is a pretty big stretch considering quality issues with the product. There are a lot of blemishes, scratches and dents we have seen on Prizm cards, and this one could have all those too. Given that a Lewis Hamilton superfractor recently sold at 900k at PSA 7, a top grade isnt required, but its important.

Secondly, I think the buyer and seller need to go through very visible channels – likely outside of eBay. The Rock has already had record sales through major auction houses, and I think that if this card is graded and sent to a place like Goldin Auctions, PWCC or Heritage Auctions, there are more premium buyers that can see it and bid on it. There are also situations in the past where a buyer wants to set up the market with a sale that sets a precedent. We saw cards from both MLB and NBA set records because a buyer saw potential in the market. Right now, the WWE market is still one of the most inexpensive to change. I mentioned on a few podcasts that it wouldnt take much to tip a few dominoes. This card could do it all at once, and the right buyer might recognize that fact.

In terms of other factors, there are quite a few that could contribute to this card’s value skyrocketing in value. One is the Rock coming back to WWE to face Roman Reigns, which has been a rumored main event for Wrestlemania 39. Since 2019, the Rock has not been to a WWE event, after appearing at the first Smackdown on Fox. Because he is one of the most in demand movie stars in the world, his ability to work the required build to a match like that is pretty hard to manage. If he comes back and the match is on, both stars could see gigantic attention and even more increase in value across the board.

Another factor is time. This might be the most important part of all of this post, because time will do two things. It will get people wondering where the card is, and it will give the market time to mature a bit. Right now, we are seeing hobby box prices fall, and bulk singles trying to climb above a low floor. With the typical Prizm bounce back already starting, its possible that time could give more opportunity for a larger price as people see more public sales increasing.

Lastly, is the other big cards having big public sales. Hulk Hogan and Roman Reigns both have 1/1 Black Base cards I expect to sell for record prices. We have already seen the Stone Cold Steve Austin Black 1/1 Surface. If those cards are pulled and sold in a public setting with gigantic numbers, it will help prop up the sale of the Rock’s big card. If his card is pulled and sold ahead of other product hits, it might take a resale or two for it to get to six figures.

When reviewing the outline here, there are a lot of things that need to go right for the Rock and wrestling cards to achieve the heights that I am hoping it reaches. It might take more than time to get this card to its highest potential value. With the hobby on a downturn leading into the NFL season, still hampered by product delays, grading backlogs and scandals across the nation, non-WWE related things might prevent long term growth in Prizm’s biggest hits. I want to see it get there, especially with the buzz that was generated when his Bumblebee Tuna Miami Hurricanes card sold in the high five figures back 2020 and 2021. The Rock is the biggest star to come out of WWE, and one of the most recognizable names in the world. I hope this is the starting line for a marathon of fun with wrestling cards, and we all know marathons take a long time to finish. This finish could be a big one.