It should be clear to everyone that Panini is moving ahead full steam without a CLC license to produce NCAA cards. By signing exclusive deals with universities who opt out of CLC, they are circumventing the exclusive license currently owned by Upper Deck. Although no major dominoes have fallen YET, I think we are all waiting for the other shoe to drop. Today they announced that after signing deals with 3 major schools in October, they have reached a deal with LRG who owns 200 more. Although most of the schools are worthless in terms of trading cards, the message is sent. Panini is coming, and there is nothing UD can do to stop them.

I posted a long piece on why this is bad for cards, and I stand by my earlier sentiments. If Panini were to secure deals with schools like Alabama, UNC and Duke, that would be the relative end of Upper Deck’s hold on the NCAA market. Now, there is still opportunity under the group licensing agreements for UD to continue producing unlicensed cards similar to Leaf, Press Pass and Sage, but it wont be the same.

With rumors circulating that Upper Deck is already too far in debt to climb out, it might be time to wonder what the plan looks like. The situation remains, if Panini is able to secure exclusive deals with the schools that represent most of players on the upcoming checklists, UD will have to abandon plans to do a CLC set. The current license with CLC does not allow airbrushed cards to be in the same set as a licensed card, so a choice will have to be made.

Its clear that Upper Deck can make successful products. Its also clear that unlicensed products CAN be successful under the right circumstances. There is no guarantee that the choice to move away from CLC will kill UD, but a sky is falling mentality among collectors might add to the issues they already face.

As I mentioned before, Panini is currently the only trading card company that has the money to spend to acquire and support licenses of this sort. When Topps’ baseball license expires, Panini is certain to make a play to take away exclusivity and/or get the exclusive for themselves. If that happens, they may be the only company with an ability to create any licensed trading card for the 3 major sports. If UD cant stay afloat, it may be all four.

I dont like the cards Panini makes, and I dont think this strategy is a healthy one. It might solidify Panini, but I refuse to believe it will breed health into the industry either. When you also consider how much money is involved in many of these deals, it could present a further challenge surrounding what happens when new products are needed. So far, their track record has been dismal at best.

Panini likes to show that they have the money to do these things, but I truly wonder if they can find a way to make it profitable. So far, the exclusive in Basketball has been anything but, and yet acquiring a few companies might change some of that.

I see very small amounts of silver lining that could be available, and to be honest, this type of news only cements things further. Its rare that something like this gets me to the point of no return, but we are slowly approaching that area of the plan.

Get ready, because more is coming. Mark my words.

Here is the release:

http://paniniamerica.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/panini-america-lands-exclusive-agreements-with-mississippi-state-baylor-more-than-200-additional-universities/