Prospecting the 2013 Rookie Class’ Big Names

Now that training camps are open for business, and the rookies are coming ever closer to getting their chance to show what they have, collectors have started to prospect their way through the class, determining targets for 2013. Im going to go through a few of the big rookies and talk about the approach I would take if I were in those shoes.

Geno Smith

When you see the way the Jets organization is run, you wonder how they were so good for so long. Tebow was a train wreck, Sanchez has turned into a joke, and now they are saying Geno is going to be used as a change of pace. Talk about a deathwish for a rookie’s early career. Not only is the guy playing ahead of him not serviceable as a starter, but he has already spent most of his first national spotlight waiting around watching people drafted ahead of him. Confidence and skills aside, he has a great signature and collectors love the Jets, so he still has a chance.

2013 Inception Geno Smith Patch Auto RC /50

2013 Leaf Trinity Geno Smith Inscription Auto /10

Verdict: Sell

EJ Manuel

I was SHOCKED, literally shocked that the Bills passed on Nassib and Smith to reach for Manuel. I get that they must have seen something they liked in him, or something they hated in the other guys, but I just dont see him performing at an elite level at any point in his career. Obviously that means little to collectors being that he was the only QB taken in the first round, but he is playing in Buffalo. That is just not a good situation for a guy to achieve top value. At least Christian Ponder had Peterson when the Vikings reached for him, but Manuel just doesnt have those same weapons.

2013 Bowman Chrome EJ Manuel Refractor Auto

2013 Prestige EJ Manuel Draft Ticket Auto

Verdict: Sell

Tavon Austin

I love players like him, mainly because of how many places you can put them on the field. More importantly, St Louis has NO ONE ELSE for Bradford to throw to. I was very surprised to see how low his cards are selling, and I think that of all the skill players in the draft, he will end up having the best career. he is fast, dynamic and has great hands, and is playing in a dome. You cant beat that. Im all over his potential, and I think that collectors should be too.

2013 Elite Tavon Austin Auto RC /299

2013 Inception Tavon Austin Inscription Auto /10

Verdict: BUY

DeAndre Hopkins

I think Houston is a great landing spot for Hopkins, as he has a good offense around him and he has Andre Johnson to be his mentor. However, he has a terrible signature which will decrease hobby value. If the injury bug continues to plague Houston’s receivers and Hopkins gets a shot at the number one slot, he looks like he could be a great receiver. For that reason alone, I might hold onto his cards with the understanding that he should see playoff time at the end of the year.

2013 Inception DeAndre Hopkins Auto Patch /88

Verdict: Hold

Cordarrelle Patterson

I was ecstatic when the Vikings drafted him, as I believe he could be a big part of our offense in two years. However, Vikings fans like me are rabid team collectors and we chase down our guys regardless of talent level. This has put up his value higher than it should be, and I doubt that he will have the production for it to hold up. Jennings is the top guy, and Peterson will get 30 carries a game, which means he will need Ponder to play like Aaron Rodgers to really get some good numbers on the board.

2013 Inception Cordarrelle Patterson Glove Logo Auto /10

Verdict: Sell (to me)

Eddie Lacy

Im not sure if there is a worse place for a running back to play than in Green Bay. Maybe New England. Lacy has already had injury concerns and didnt really blow up like Trent Richardson did or even Doug Martin in college. He is still one of the most valuable rookies in the class because of where he played and where he IS playing, but I am seeing more negativity about his ability to be a workhorse long term. I would unload his cards before he gets on the field, because I am not sure how well he will play to continue holding the residual value he is getting.

2012 Upper Deck Exquisite Eddie Lacy RC

Verdict: Sell

Le’Veon Bell

With Mendenhall gone, and no one else to fill the void, Bell should get SERIOUS looks as the number one back in Pittsburgh. I think that right now he has some value, but if he gets some early success, his value will jump. Considering how few options there are in Steeler city, this guy is probably the biggest guy I would pick up and now.

2013 Elite LeVeon Bell Auto Jersey RC

Verdict: BUY

Mike Glennon

I was surprised he ended up lasting until the 3rd round, and I think he could end up being a very good QB. The Bucs are quickly losing confidence in Freeman, and if they tank their first 8 games, Glennon might be inserted to see what he can do. At that point, im sure the collecting world will be onto him, but he can be picked up now for nothing. He is less like a player we saw in RGIII and Kaepernick, but he is still a player that can be productive enough to see a value bump.

2013 Inception Mike Glennon Elements Auto /25

Verdict: BUY

Matt Barkley

To think that no one was willing to take a flyer on Barkley until round four is shocking. He was a top 10 pick if he comes out in 2012, but after a poor season with no one around him, he falls like a rock. Both Foles and Vick are not long term answers in Philly, so Barkley will eventually get some snaps, even if its down the road a few years. His cards are really cheap right now because of where he was drafted, but Chip Kelly has a rep of being an offensive genius. Im intrigued to see what happens with him.

2013 Elite Matt Barkley Auto Status Gold /49

Verdict: HOLD

I cant even tell you all how excited I am for the start of the season, and seeing the first products of the year has gotten me back into the swing of things. Although this isnt even close to the value of products in 2012, its looking like 2013 will be a fun year.

9 thoughts on “Prospecting the 2013 Rookie Class’ Big Names

  1. Always love these kinds of articles!

    Any thoughts on the hobby’s fastest rising rookie Montee Ball? I’m thinking his buying window is pretty much closer and he’ll have to come down a bit before he’s worth buying into.

    As for Barkley, I would like to add that he was still throwing to Robert Woods and Biletnikoff-winner Marquis Lee – it was largely a the running game and soft defense that let him down. However, as a Cowboys fan, what concerns me the most about his potential is that Chip Kelly scouted and coached against Barkley all four years of Barkley’s USC career and even though his Ducks beat the Trojans 3 of the 4 matches, he still saw enough in Barkley to make him the pick. Last year everyone knew Barkley was a Top-10 QB (in a class with freak’n ANDREW LUCK and RG3!). It seems like everyone other than Kelly forgot that.

  2. Wilson could get a shot because the Raiders are NOT sold on Palmer. He will have to leapfrog Terrelle Pryor, but that shouldnt be hard.

  3. Im really negative nelly this year which makes me wonder why Ive locked in on so many products…

    I dont think any of the QBs are an answer for any team and I dont really like anyone else from this year… That being said, Geno, Manuel and Tyler Wilson dont have much to beat out and the teams have no reason to not go with a rookie

    Hold Lacy to see how the first few games go… He should get a lot of mileage off play action and inside the 20 on draws. I see a lot of touchdowns based on the fact that everyone is playing pass and have to cover the field and there is the Pack fan base to deal with, same with Bell in Pittsburgh, his style fits that team well

    I thought the Broncos like Ronnie Hillman and I dont understand why they keep Moreno around… Hillman and Ball mini thunder and lightning?

    Tavon Austin is too small, best case he is Darren Sproles…

    TEs anyone? Eifert or Escobar

    Unfortunately this year looks like maybe some defensive players in good situations make the news, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Bjoern Warner

    Save your $$ and buy something you always wanted or an established star. Aaron Rodgers is still cheap for good autos and has as good a shot at SB as anyone in the NFC, Payton and Unitas autos are cheap as well..

  4. Palmer’s not in Oakland anymore. He’s in AZ. Flynn will be the starter (at least initially) for the Raiders.

    SELL: Personally I don’t see what people like in Barkley. He’s another USC glamour boy who will probably fail to live up to the hype like the others (Leinhart, Sanchez).

    BUY: I would rather pick up Robert Woods if you want a former Trojan. He has potential for a nice long NFL career.

  5. Neglected to add that I definitely agree on Tavon Austin. In fact I will upgrade him to a ‘strong buy’ LOL… I think he’s as close as you’ll get to superstardom from the 2013 draft class. Also, a lot depends on how well Bradford performs. Up to this point he has been somewhat of a bust.

  6. Pingback: What are the most valuable rookies to pull in 2013? - Blowout Cards Forums

  7. I’m loving that people aren’t valuing DeAndre Hopkins. Lets me pick him up for cheap.

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