Houston, we have a problem.
As most of the world found out yesterday, Robert Griffin III, star quarterback and hobby savior has had to go under the knife for the first time in his NFL career. Having already had the same surgery to repair his ACL in 2009, this is a VERY bad situation. Doctors have given the timetable similar to the one assigned to Adrian Peterson of 6-9 months, but I think that is unrealistic considering prior injury.
All of these things considered, does this mean he loses all value associated with his cards and autographs in the hobby. Obviously the answer is no, but his potential has to be questioned in terms of the possibilities. To be honest, this was always a huge risk for Griffin, as it is with any running quarterback. The difference is that many running quarterbacks come with a price ceiling, something that Griffin never experienced.
Prices havent plummeted yet, which is a good sign, but this cant hold:
This is a frank reminder of how much things can change overnight, as we found out the hard way with Stephen Strasburg in 2010. Strasburg was much more of a prospect than Griffin is, if not only because there are more Baseball collectors out there. Strasburg blew out his elbow during the first year he was in the majors, and his value dropped like a rock.
Griffin still has potential to be a star, its just not as bright until collectors can feel confident he will come back the same as he was. We might not get that view until the middle of the 2013 season, and by then it might be to the point where the new draft class occupies more of the collector consciousness.
To pile on and showcase that the 2013 draft class is stated to be one of the weakest I have ever seen, in terms of hobby value, card companies cannot be excited that Griffin wont be around to carry some of the burden in his second year as much.
If you are a smart collector with true vision, it might be a good idea to buy in during April, when prices are their lowest for football. He could come back better than ever, and its going to be hard for the Skins to put him in further jeopardy. Who knows what could be the case – but I hope you dont use Peterson as a benchmark. That is not what should be expected.