When Supreme first came out, I was not a fan in the slightest. It had a lot of reasons why was more a one pack version of Triple Threads, instead of a new product on its own. Since that time, Topps has really turned it into a fun late year product with a focus on veteran and high end rookie content. This year, it looks like we are definitely in for a big treat with Supreme.

Check out some of these big hits up so far:

2014 Topps Supreme Tom Brady / Peyton Manning Dual Auto Logo Book /15

2014 Topps Supreme Johnny Manziel Auto Inscription /50

2014 Topps Supreme Mike Evans / Kelvin Benjamin Silhouette Dual Relic Auto Book.

2014 Topps Supreme Johnny Manziel / Mike Evans Dual Auto

First off, the addition of on card rookie autographs makes this product much more appealing that it would have been with stickers. The cards look amazing, and this added element is something that makes me VERY happy.

Additionally, the product checklist of veteran autographs is very impressive, with guys like Manning, Brady, Luck, Wilson and a bunch of other guys. These are the same guys that will have 1/1 autograph logo booklets, which are some of the most coveted cards a player collector can chase.

I still think that the design of some of the cards has some improvements to be made, especially in the boxes that continue to be used to highlight sticker autos in the product. Although they dont look as bad as some of the trash Panini has put out, I think these cards could have been better with a different approach.

Seeing that the QB Drawn plays and the nickname auto booklets are also back makes this product even more attractive to someone like me. As someone who loves unique content like these cards have been over the last few years, I am looking forward to this product. The drawn out QB plays are a really nice touch, even though the other side is a sticker. I would love to see more cards with content derived from this part of the game.

With some of the bigger products still yet to be released in 2014, looks like Topps has stepped it up big time over the last few products.

Over the last few weeks, we have had a lot of developments with quite a few big name players. Some traded to new teams, others moving through free agency, and even a few retirements. So the question becomes, what impact does this have on their potential hobby value? What about the guys who havent moved yet, but are likely on their way to a new team?

DeMarco Murray

As of last night, the Cowboys and Murray have been said to be in contact to work out a new deal. Let me reinforce that this is the BEST possible situation for Murray, not only because they are a highly collectible team, but because I think his success is more a reflection of the offensive line than the quality of his skills. If Murray leaves and goes to somewhere like Arizona, that will be a bigger hit than people think.

2011 Topps Chrome Demarco Murray Atomic Auto BGS 10

2011 Topps Demarco Murray Rookie Premiere Auto

2014 Flawless DeMarco Murray Jumbo Patch Auto

LeSean McCoy

Obviously the NFL is no longer a league that gives two shits about a running back, but McCoy moving to Buffalo is a big deal. Not only will he likely have to carry the offense behind a new QB, but he wont have the opportunity to get the kind of protection like he did in Philly. This is not going to be a good situation for him at all.

2009 SP Authentic LeSean McCoy Auto Patch RC

2009 Exquisite LeSean McCoy Auto Patch RC

Jimmy Graham

I was literally shocked when I saw that he was traded to Seattle. Although they got back a great player in Max Unger, Graham was easily one of the best TEs in the league behind maybe Rob Gronkowski. Now, in hobby terms, this is an upgrade, as the Seahawks are one of the more popular teams in the league. Playing with Lynch and Wilson is awesome, and it puts Seattle in a new position to be champs of the NFC west again by a mile.

2010 SP Authentic Jimmy Graham Auto RC

2010 National Treasures Jimmy Graham Auto RC

Sam Bradford / Nick Foles

Again a trade I was shocked to see, especially because I think Foles is MUCH better than Bradford coming off his second ACL. This could be fodder to move up in the draft to get someone else, but Philly basically gave away a serviceable starter. Foles will do well in St Louis, but his hobby value is not as high as it was in Philly.

2012 Topps Chrome NIck Foles Black Rerfractor Auto RC

2012 Contenders Nick Foles Auto Ticket RC

2010 National Treasures Sam Bradford Auto Patch Logo RC

Ndamukong Suh

Although he is the dirtiest player in the game by just about every standard, Suh going to Miami instantly makes the Dolphins a playoff team, as their 8-8 record will surely improve with one of the better DLines in the league.

2010 Contenders Ndamukong Suh Auto Ticket Lot

Jake Locker / Patrick Willis

Crazy to believe that Locker and Willis are retiring, as its clear that they are both very young and definitely not on the list of players I consider to be completely done. Locker was just drafted in 2011, but never really caught on in Tennessee. He has been injured for the majority of his career, but playing for the Titans will do that to you. Willis was among the better LBs in the league, and though injuries are forcing him out, this could become more of a trend than we could expect. Athletes just dont want to live the rest of their lives in pain.

Adrian Peterson

I am of the people who want to see Peterson in purple again this season, despite the despicable actions he was suspended for. He is a guy that makes the team better, and the Vikings dont have many options. There hasnt been a true understanding of what he is looking to do as of yet, but I expect that to come shortly. My guess is that he moves on and one of the RB hungry teams will pick him up. He still has a lot of hobby value because everyone thinks he is going to continue being a productive player.

2014 Immaculate Adrian Peterson Auto Patch

2014 Valor Adrian Peterson Dirty Patch Auto /25

This is only day one and its pretty cool to think this is only the beginning. Curious to see what happens over the next few days. Still a lot of guys out there to fall into place.

A few months ago, Panini continued their plan of manifest destiny across the hobby when they secured an exclusive CLC (NCAA) License, pried from the capable hands of Upper Deck. As expected, they are looking to use the license in combination with their existing licenses, including the NFL. Today they announced the creation of their first two collegiate licensed products in Contenders Draft Picks and Prizm Collegiate Draft Picks. Aside from the fact that these are basically the same concept in two different products, Im a little shocked that this is the way they chose to move forward. They have had many other popular college centric product lines that would have worked very well instead.

Just for reference, Contenders used to have college uniform tickets back in 2009 and before:

2009 Contenders Matthew Stafford College Uniform Variation

2008 Contenders Darren McFadden College Uniform Variation

2008 Contenders Joe Flacco College Uniform Variation

They also had college uniforms in other sets before UD took over:

2007 Absolute Peyton Manning College Relic Auto

2007 National Treasures Jay Cutler College Auto Relic

Let me start by saying Panini will have to build a bunch of new products to support their vast overpayment for the NFL license. They will also have to support the exclusive licenses that they purchased from all the different schools and the exclusive license from the rest of the CLC group of schools. In case it isnt already clear, they need to go balls out to even come within the same zip code of the money they spent to acquire all these properties.

As far as I can understand, there are only a few ways to make that happen. Expand out print runs and try to sell more of what you already have, or make new products. They will probably do a little bit of both, but the latter really scares the everliving shit out of me. Panini has shown they are COMPLETELY fucking inept at building new products in the NFL space. Sure, they have had recent success in Immaculate and Flawless, but both were carry overs from Basketball. Home grown sets like Playbook, Spectra and others have literally fallen on their ugly faces, and its mostly because they really dont know what they are doing. Design is a big part of it, but so is format and content.

Right now, they really only have true equity in a small handful of products, most of which resides in National Treasures and Contenders. There are arguments to be made for Elite and Certified, but the brands are very inconsistent year over year. Outside of these sets, no true star products really exist at all. Immaculate and Flawless are on their way, but only if the consistency remains in tact. That is no guarantee when it comes to Panini.

To attach a top brand name like Contenders to a draft picks product is a REALLY risky play. Not only are you intentionally diluting the brand name to get a free lead in, but you also apply a set of standards. Panini wants you to lend consideration to Contenders Draft Picks just because of the name. What they dont seem to get, is that any under performance in the product is probably more damaging to the brand than it is worth.

Here is what I am referring to, mainly in the way this product is structured. Collectors already have a very strong reaction to college uniform cards. Its either strongly positive or strongly negative. Where Contenders once had a unified public perception, it now does not. Similarly, Upper Deck is going to be releasing pre-draft products to close out their CLC license, and Panini will need to outperform their products to avoid stigma. UD Inscriptions looks really good, only making it more of a tall order for Panini to compete with. This means on card autos and lots of cool content. Let me say, its going to be hard for this to happen, and now the Contenders name is further damaged.

Secondly, to release Prizm a very short time later only further puts the Contenders product on notice. It may be Chrome style vs non-Chrome style, but I can see how both products might be very similar in configuration and content. Plus, this Chrome product will be going up against Leaf Metal, Trinity and a few others that have been proven as collector favorites.

The question remains, what is the best way to do this? Honestly, I think its to start from scratch. Start a new brand identity and try to build the equity that has long been lost from Panini products. The last thing you want is for an established brand to sit on dealer shelves unable to be cleared. They havent been in this game before, and you dont want to send your best soldier out there to be killed unless you KNOW its safe. Even a product like Elite Extra Edition has roots in the MLB college market, why would they not go that direction?!?

I expect Contenders draft picks to depend on two things – on card autos and design. Content will be big because they want to sell it. However, we have seen that content can only take a product so far. If its stickers while Bowman Chrome, Leaf, UD and other products are all on card, good luck. If its on card but the typical ugly shit that we normally expect from new Panini brands, again good luck. Panini has its work cut out for them, and Im not sure they understand what they have gotten themselves into.