This is the best time of year for high end football collectors. Not only is the NFL draft about a month away, but its the time of year when Panini is going to typically bring out their two biggest sets in National Treasures and Flawless. Although I am someone who thinks this would be a much better break around Super Bowl Sunday, this is what we all wait for every year. With sets like Optic Contenders also making waves, it feels like this year is really going to close on a high note.

Check out some of these cards:

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Alvin Kamara Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Dalvin Cook Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Leonard Fournette Booklet Patch Auto /99

2017 National Treasures Drew Brees Auto Patch /25

First off the line boxes started arriving on Friday for those lucky few that got to them, and so far, it looks like this is one of those configurations that is working well. Other FOTL boxes have fallen flat with watered down configurations and not much response from collectors on the exclusive cards. This feels different. The stars and stripes version of the Rookie Patch Autos are great looking, and more importantly, its been tough to find ones that dont have incredible patches in them. It helps that this year’s design is among the better ones I have seen in the last few years, coupled with an Acetate finish that is really good looking.

As for the rest of the set, we are seeing the typical stuff out of NT that comes every year. Booklets, patches, and tons of content, alongside another year of stickers, single jerseys and junk that I still cringe over every time this set comes out. National Treasures suffers from too much content, and since the format shifted to 9-10 cards per pack, 4 of the hits have been relative shit that seems to increase price of the box but adds nothing to the configuration.

Watching the first off the line boxes has been interesting, because some of them are so good and others are just that bad. Having a case with 4 RPAs though is worth the price of admission, especially when other cases of the regular product may only have one or two. The rest of the product looks good, save the jersey cards and other content on the periphery, something that has always been the bane of NT’s existence. Curious to see how much non-rookie on card content is included this year, as it seemed very sticker heavy. I cant even put into words how frustrating that is, especially when we see how beautiful a set like Impeccable is.

We need more hard signed content in a box that costs this much, maybe reserving the stickers for the scrub autos that are never on card. The addition of more non-rookie player worn material doesnt help either, because if a set is going to be game worn, it needs to be this one. I can harp on this all I want, but the fact of the matter is that it almost is worthless to argue. Collectors dont seem to care enough, and that is beyond sad. Panini is also likely limited in their ability to continue getting game used content at a cheap price, but some sets should never face that dilemma. NT has to be the best of the best, and that means player worn non-rookie content should be as limited as stickers should be. I would even go so far as saying Panini has found a way to make a relic version of stickers, changing out game used content for player worn more and more this year. Its true that this content isnt as cheap as it used to be, but that’s where sets like Donruss and Certified Cuts need to be the trash can for the player worn garbage.

Overall, this set continues to be much better after really falling on its face prior to 2013, regardless of how much the cards are worth. Cards like Watson and Mahomes could crack a grand per pull, and that’s an accomplishment in itself. Football just isnt generating the blockbuster stuff like baseball and basketball, and its good to see collectors latching onto the rookies with potential. Lets hope Flawless continues down this path.

I havent had a lot of time lately to update my site, as having a baby at home combined with a crazy work / life balance issue doesnt translate well to blogging. That being said, this product release has been quite intriguing.

Going back to 2016, Encased was a fucking dumpster fire in my opinion. Ugly cards, goofy posed photos everywhere, and a crazy expensive box price was horrendous. Yet, much like we see Panini do on a regular basis, they brought it back. Much to my surprise, the product has improved significantly, not because the posed photos are gone, but because Panini seems to be making this a product driven by inscriptions.

Check out some of the bigger cards:

2017 Panini Encased Patrick Mahomes Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Alvin Kamara Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Mitchell Trubisky Cap Patch Auto BGS 9

2017 Panini Encased Leonard Fournette Dual Relic Auto BGS 9.5

It really begs the ultimate question. Can something like unique autograph content deliver a reason to open a product that I would normally stay FAAAAAR away from?

To a degree the answer is yes, because I think inscriptions are still special enough that it can bring some additional reasons to rip through boxes you wouldnt normally rip through. Even though the photos are still so, so, so fucking bad, they really speak to the side of me that may forgive them somewhat for choosing that direction.

Considering that each rookie can sign almost 30,000 autographs a year, its time to spend some of that time delivering autograph content that isnt the norm. Because players dont always know what to do when asked for inscriptions, it can be very difficult to generate this type of content. That’s why, when done well, its super special. Its also a reason why Panini shouldnt waste the concept on a set like Encased, especially considering how important it is for them to continue to keep the idea sacred enough to generate value above and beyond.

At some point, I hope that a premium release like this morphs to showcase some great looking cards that also use inscriptions as the primary vehicle to deliver autographs (as best as can be done with the players). More importantly, try to move away from graded box hits, as so many of the grades did not deliver gem or even mint grades across the product. Because cards are thick stock and signed on card, players’ handling them to sign the autographs almost ensures that grades wont be where they need to be. Although I understand the concept, I find it to be overkill against a set that really could benefit from extra cost generated through grading being delivered into the content instead.

There is a LOT of potential in Encased, but it was fucking wasted in 2016, and borderline lost in 2017. So much could be done to make this a keystone product for Panini, and instead its a forgotten release that seems to get lost among the super premium space that invades the NFL offseason.

Back in the 1990s, before smart phones, before XBOX, before anything like we know today, collecting cards were popular with kids. If that seems like ancient history, its because it is ancient history, but that doesnt stop people from literally tearing off this scab year after year after year. Its the one discussion that no one seems to want to close, and the one effort that no one wants to give up.

The notion of bringing that mass of kids back to the hobby isnt new, but the methods in which the card companies think it is possible dont seem to be either. Despite some great new tools and technology, all of which would be prime real estate to market a certain way, the card companies seem to trot out the same tired ideas with the understanding that it might accomplish the goal that hasnt been accomplished for over 20 years.

Over the weekend, Topps announced a new baseball set called “Big League,” whose sell sheet featured the tag line “Kids have spoken and Topps has listened.” Besides being just another cheap product, the tagline is so infuriating, I dont know what to say. Basically, one side of the argument is that bringing kids back will bring back a ton of money that has since left the hobby. Another side believes that bringing kids back will stave off the death of the industry itself, with new blood eventually growing up and becoming the future market the hobby needs to survive. Some believe both. I believe all of these arguments are valid, but also too expensive and worthless to try to execute. As a father of kids who make up the target market for products like Big League, I can almost certainly laugh at the approach.

First, my son loves opening packs. He likes baseball cards, he likes football cards, and he LOVES Pokemon cards. He likes the thrill of the unknown and pulling something that seems valuable. He also hates “kid products” because he knows there is rarely anything worth while in a pack of those cards. He wants to open the stuff I open, get the same shot at autographs that I do. His friends that he plays with are exactly the same way. I even took a group of them to the hobby shop and let them all pick out some packs for my son’s birthday. Guess what? None of them chose products like Big League will be – unless something fundamentally changes between what was discussed in the sell sheet and what hits the shelves.

The reason is that kids hate being pandered to. They want to feel like they are adults, even though the sentiment is likely the opposite for adults that open packs. Adults want to reclaim youth, and for many adults, that includes opening packs of baseball cards.

Personally, Big League feels like Topps is paying off a ransom demanded by either the league or by the retail marketing arms of Target and Wal Mart. Retail SKUs are so important to a product like this, not because so many of the people buying packs are kids, but because it provides access to a market that might be 1000 times the size of any local hobby shop. Maybe even 10000 times.

Putting cards in the aisles means access, and im sure that retail giants still believe that kids are inherently a target market for cards, just like they were 20 years ago. Excell marketing probably doesnt argue, despite the fact that so many of the consumers are adults.

Regardless of this approach, the product doesnt really go a direction that is that much different than other products occupying the same space. If that is the situation, what makes anyone believe this approach is better than any of the other products.

Well, any of the other products save two. There have been two products that could have taken a VASTLY different road to the same goal, a road that should have been MUCH more successful than it was. Those products were Topps Bunt and Topps Star Wars Card Trader. Both products were physical digital crossover sets that could have exploited the one thing that was never available back in the 1990s when everything started to go to shit – 24 hour access to a game that uses cards as a main driver of entertainment.

There are a number of things that my sons find entertainment in over ripping packs of cards – their iPad. Not only do they spend more time on the iPad than watching TV, but they absolutely love it. Providing access to cards through their digital appetite is something that should be at the front of any strategy that looks to reclaim children’s small attention span.

Instead, Bunt was left to rot on the vine, with the digital team taking very little interest in driving exclusive content only available in packs of the physical product. At least, from my perspective, that’s what it felt like. Im sure they saw it as a burden, trying to help the physical team gain access to their massive user base, instead of a true gateway for children to buy cheap packs and get direct content delivered through their phones at the same time.

Topps could have built a giant campaign around it, doing the things that they have tried over and over again with cheap and terrible products that never offered anything more than a more inexpensive price tag. It comes down to a very simple concept – why are you trying to capture a market through a method that none of them use? Its like trying to sell people cable subscription packages at a cord cutters convention. Not a great approach.

Digital is the answer, but at that same time, the apps havent exactly been kid friendly lately either. Most of the digital apps from any of the companies realized pretty quickly that they had to sell a lot of content to people with actual money to stay funded by companies with no experience building video games. That’s entirely the wrong approach, as we have seen with how Pokemon incorporates a digital element to all of their apps and games.

Im not saying Big League wont be a fun product. It looks good. Im just saying it wont do anything like what it is supposed to do. Its not because kids dont like cards when they are exposed to them, its that the way to capture kids isnt through offerings built around the same set configuration, just less expensive.

Right now, its better to invest in adults with money, as it is less expensive to execute and seems to be more accessible through adults and their die hard fandom surrounding their favorite sports teams. Kids dont experience sports like that unless they have parents that do, and just like cards, adults who collect should bring in more kids that collect.

I just hope that down the road people stop acting like Helen Lovejoy and wondering why people wont think of the children. I want the companies to spend money investing in things that might actually make a difference. A well funded and well executed digital strategy is that answer, and if Topps or Panini could help both the leagues and the mass retailers understand how important that is, I think my refrain would be different.

A number of years ago, Panini made a decision. They determined it was better to model their calendar after Topps’ major success in football, then to reinvent the wheel. To do so, they mapped out all of the chrome based products Topps had brought to the market, and created brands that would be the Panini equivalent. For Chrome, Prizm became their brand, and for many years was unable to measure up to the juggernaut that ran the football hobby attention span. For Bowman Sterling, Panini built Spectra, which was identical in configuration, but offered on card autos (at least before the bastardized version we get today). Lastly was Topps Finest, upon which they created Select, a set that has actually been pretty nice since its inception.

Here are some of the bigger hits up so far:

2017 Select Deshaun Watson Tag Patch Auto 1/1

2017 Select Mitchell Trubisky Jumbo Patch Auto Tie Dye /10

2017 Select Carson Wentz Patch Auto Emerald /5

2017 Select Dalvin Cook Jumbo Prime Patch Auto Logo /5

2017 Select Jerome Bettis Emerald Die Cut Auto /5

To this day, all three products have found it very difficult to reclaim the collector loyalty that was rock solid with the Topps versions of these products. Although all three have really taken on a brand of their own, somewhat thanks to Basketball, the original concept remains – replacements for fan favorite Topps products. Select is really the one I appreciate the most, even though Prizm has been very good as well. It removes a lot of the weird elements of Finest, and replaces it with some very good looking cards. Adding in the XRC concept has breathed new life into the brand, and now makes it one of my favorite boxes to open.

The only problem with Select is the same problem that finest faced before its last year in 2015. Boxes are supremely unpredictable. This year’s product seems to have an even larger problem with this, as collation seems to have been done so that a few boxes per case have all the nicer hits. Finest struggled because 7 boxes out of 10 had nothing in them, and though this is MUCH better with veteran and rookie content combined, the collation presents huge problems for people busting a box here and there.

Either way, Chrome based products still have the advantage of value present in non “box hit” content, and Select takes that to a level that even Prizm cant touch. Additionally with more added numbered content, the serially stamped parallels for rookies are worth diving into any of the boxes in the case, not just the 5 with all the major hits.

Moving onto the XRCs, Panini made the great decision to add rare autographed parallels of the players in the set. People are speculating that the number of the XRC autograph is the draft pick number, but I can almost guarantee that wont be the case. Regardless of who is on the card, these XRCs make the product that much better and I wish that this concept was used more frequently. Obviously the cost of issuing THOUSANDS of redemptions on purpose is likely too high to make it a widespread program, but I would love to see it more.

Lastly, this Topps-less atmosphere is still without oxygen, especially as we become further removed from Chrome and the like. Select helps a little bit, but not enough for me to forgive the bitterness still left behind by the removal of the most popular products in football.

I still find it crazy that every year this is still an event. Not only does it signify the beginning of the card year for Baseball, but it is still the most widely purchased product in all of cards, at least from my understanding of the matter. Topps puts a lot of effort behind making this a huge deal, especially on the marketing side, and for the most part, they have been quite successful. They continue to add content, and the legacy of this set continues to grow. With Aaron Judge’s RC season behind us, and no clear replacement in sight, its going to be interesting to see how this year plays out.

Here are some of the top hits posted so far from Series 1:

2018 Topps Series 1 Aaron Judge Image Variation 2 SSP

2018 Topps Series 1 Mike Trout 1983 Silver Pack Red Refractor Auto /5

2018 Topps Series 1 Corey Seager Auto Relic

2018 Topps Series 1 Masahiro Tanaka 1/1 Sketch

2018 Topps Series 1 Bryce Harper In the Name Letter Patch

After a look last year that definitely was a bit off the beaten trail, 2018 looks great. About as good as it has looked in previous years. They are sticking with a borderless approach, and it seems to be working well for them despite breaking from the history of the set in a very distinct fashion. Its a big risk when you consider the overly anal tendencies of the collecting public, but I think its one that is worth taking.

For me, Topps’ yearly base set was never really a focus, as most of my collection centers around autographs and higher end examples of my PC players. I also realize that in Baseball, that type of collecting focus is still overshadowed in some senses blackjack movies you can’t miss, mainly because of the history involved with collecting sets and the importance of base cards.

Topps has added in a lot more high end content with each passing year, and I do chase some of the specific examples of that strategy. Outside of that, the baseball collecting public still breaks out their needs and wants each year, and though the overall group may shrink each year, the added high end content seems to bring back a lot of other people when the set first hits.

Like most products across all sports this set doesnt have a great shelf life, especially considering that there are still 2-3 more versions of base sets still to come. Series 2 hits later, with update to follow, and Topps Chrome mixed in between. The dilution has helped to sustain momentum across the entire calendar year, but it doesnt help when old products sit.

Missing from this year is any involvement with Topps Bunt, which was a cool addition to the sets in years prior. Now that Bunt has its own product, I can see where they dont want the trouble of digital involvement for two sets, but the redemptions (World Would if money was available to everyone) were always a huge hit in prior examples of the crossover.

My only real design complaint over the last few years has been the inserts, which have always felt like an afterthought. This year, I have been quite satisfied with the look of many of the sets, and the 1983 Topps inserts that have replaced the 1987 ones from 2017.

Overall, another year another set, and Im curious if there is sustainability here that wasnt something that looked possible before. Somehow, some way, Topps has found ways to keep this set relevant, and each year I am more and more shocked that they increase production to meet demand. I guess this is a true representation that the hobby does still have a place for Series 1 in their hearts.