I still find it crazy that every year this is still an event. Not only does it signify the beginning of the card year for Baseball, but it is still the most widely purchased product in all of cards, at least from my understanding of the matter. Topps puts a lot of effort behind making this a huge deal, especially on the marketing side, and for the most part, they have been quite successful. They continue to add content, and the legacy of this set continues to grow. With Aaron Judge’s RC season behind us, and no clear replacement in sight, its going to be interesting to see how this year plays out.

Here are some of the top hits posted so far from Series 1:

2018 Topps Series 1 Aaron Judge Image Variation 2 SSP

2018 Topps Series 1 Mike Trout 1983 Silver Pack Red Refractor Auto /5

2018 Topps Series 1 Corey Seager Auto Relic

2018 Topps Series 1 Masahiro Tanaka 1/1 Sketch

2018 Topps Series 1 Bryce Harper In the Name Letter Patch

After a look last year that definitely was a bit off the beaten trail, 2018 looks great. About as good as it has looked in previous years. They are sticking with a borderless approach, and it seems to be working well for them despite breaking from the history of the set in a very distinct fashion. Its a big risk when you consider the overly anal tendencies of the collecting public, but I think its one that is worth taking.

For me, Topps’ yearly base set was never really a focus, as most of my collection centers around autographs and higher end examples of my PC players. I also realize that in Baseball, that type of collecting focus is still overshadowed in some senses blackjack movies you can’t miss, mainly because of the history involved with collecting sets and the importance of base cards.

Topps has added in a lot more high end content with each passing year, and I do chase some of the specific examples of that strategy. Outside of that, the baseball collecting public still breaks out their needs and wants each year, and though the overall group may shrink each year, the added high end content seems to bring back a lot of other people when the set first hits.

Like most products across all sports this set doesnt have a great shelf life, especially considering that there are still 2-3 more versions of base sets still to come. Series 2 hits later, with update to follow, and Topps Chrome mixed in between. The dilution has helped to sustain momentum across the entire calendar year, but it doesnt help when old products sit.

Missing from this year is any involvement with Topps Bunt, which was a cool addition to the sets in years prior. Now that Bunt has its own product, I can see where they dont want the trouble of digital involvement for two sets, but the redemptions (World Would if money was available to everyone) were always a huge hit in prior examples of the crossover.

My only real design complaint over the last few years has been the inserts, which have always felt like an afterthought. This year, I have been quite satisfied with the look of many of the sets, and the 1983 Topps inserts that have replaced the 1987 ones from 2017.

Overall, another year another set, and Im curious if there is sustainability here that wasnt something that looked possible before. Somehow, some way, Topps has found ways to keep this set relevant, and each year I am more and more shocked that they increase production to meet demand. I guess this is a true representation that the hobby does still have a place for Series 1 in their hearts.

Panini has gotten into the habit of photographing events lately, including ones like happened this past weekend. During those events, Panini spends a lot of time getting sets like NT and Flawless signed, which means previews are here for a set that many collectors look forward to every year. I thought 2016 NT was a good looking set, as was 2015. Its like they are finally getting their shit together on these high end products, and I couldnt be happier. If we could make it so that there were no more stickers in a box that costs this much, I might be a lot happier than I am.

This year’s sets have some very interesting small changes and most of them look pretty good. I think the RPA design is another in a longer line of good looking versions, and much to my appreciation, it looks like the base version is horizontal in orientation. This means the design has a lot more room to breathe, instead of seeing photos squashed against borders.

As they have since the beginning, the booklets also look great, with a big focus on a minimal design, and big areas to sign. This hasnt always been the case, but Im glad it is this time around. Booklets havent really caught on with NT, which is unfortunate in a lot of different ways. Not only have the booklets been consistently good looking since they began their run in the product, but they have some really nice patches to boot. People are way too fucking involved in outdated “true RC” designation bullshit and I can say there are few things collectors do that bother me more. If people just appreciated and paid a premium for the better looking cards in any given product, things would be a lot different in the way the companies produce sets.

Overall, this is looking like a good year of NT, but it all depends on a few things. How many of the goofy ass posed photos they use and how much of the set adheres to the same quality set by the previews we have already gotten. Lots on the line with a rookie class that had so many injuries to what seem like special players.

Here are the photos:

Being that there is no guarantee he even gets a shot, I still wanted to discuss what might happen to cards if Brady wins the AFC championship game with the Patriots coming up, and then goes onto win another Super Bowl to add to his historic total. Right now, Brady is the Babe Ruth of football, already. Would padding his stats do much to his already astronomical value? I think its worth considering. I mean, there are cards out there that are hitting prices that are usually only associated with high grade vintage cards.

Before we get going, I need to show some of these insane prices:

2000 SP Authentic Tom Brady RC PSA 10

2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady RC PSA 10

2002 Topps Tom Brady Super Bowl Auto Relic /150

Even just normal autos are insane:

2015 Immaculate Collection Tom Brady Auto /10

First off, let me start by saying that any money put into Brady is good money. Unless he is convicted of some horrible crime, he is the best football player to ever have a big presence in the hobby. Sure, he might be ARGUABLY the best player of all time, but he is WITHOUT A DOUBT the most collectible player. There is a difference there.

No matter how you feel about him, the Patriots, deflategate, whatever – he is the person every collector wants to pull in their box, or at least find unsuspectingly in a bargain bin somewhere. The argument against any real impact is that none of that is going to change. He already has the most titles, he already holds most of the more important records. Piling on doesnt really do much in that regard.

Right now, his cards are so fucking expensive, you almost cant buy them. Its cost prohibitive for most collectors to obtain a collection piece worth of being front and center, and that doesnt even begin to cover what is going on with his main rookie cards that have reached a level usually only reserved for Ruth, Mantle and Jordan.

Being that as it may, im not sure there is that much more of a difference another Super Bowl would add long term. Short term always brings casual collectors looking to chase down a card they would normally have no interest in chasing, but outside of the first six months after he wins, its not like a $25k card is all of a sudden turning into a 50k card. Maybe it becomes a 30k card if there is some fluke of conscience by Patriots collectors looking to add to their PC.

I think there are many more hobby implications if any of the 3 other QBs were to win, especially for a guy like Case Keenum or Blake Bortles. I discussed this more in depth earlier this week, and I would love to see someone crazy win the big game. To be abundantly clear, any of the three guys winning besides Brady would be nuts. I cant even imagine for some of them.

As a whole, Im just insanely excited about the coming games, and being that the Super Bowl is in my backyard only makes it more exciting. Hopefully we get some fun finishes and a lot of intrigue leading into the most important sporting event of the year.

The hobby runs on QBs. Period. Save a few examples of players in other positions, its the only time where extended career longevity is assured if you are a good player. For other examples, its hard to find a great running back that wouldnt be axed from the team roster just because his salary cap number exceeds that of a draft pick or free agent. Wide Receivers are similarly difficult to stake, and the collectors in the hobby know that it isnt a good indicator of HOF level potential if the player isnt a QB.

With that, outside of Tom Brady, there are three QBs playing that have a number of large questions marks floating over their careers right now. Blake Bortles hasnt exactly had oodles of success in Jacksonville, Case Keenum is on his third team, and despite a lot of success during the regular season, doesnt have a great resume prior. Nick Foles is not going to be the ongoing QB in Philly, even if he wins the Super Bowl. In fact, its more likely he doesnt stay on the roster if he wins than if he doesnt.

So, that begs the question, should you spend any reasonable amount of money chasing the QBs not named Tom Brady?

Blake Bortles

Of the three guys in the playoffs, Bortles is the most intriguing for a number of reasons. One, the team isnt built around him. Its built around their crazy fucking tazmanian devil of a defense. Although they drafted Fournette last year, he isnt the one piece that makes their offense elite. They need more. Allen Robinson is good not great, Allen Hurns is meh not good, and Keelan Cole is a rookie. Marcedes Lewis is the one remaining piece since their last playoff run, and that isnt a good sign for the TE position safety blanket in Jacksonville.

Here are some auction prices that are already creeping up:

2014 National Treasures Blake Bortles Rookie Auto Patch 1/1

2014 Topps Chrome Blake Bortles Rookie Pink Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

2014 SP Authentic Blake Bortles Inscription Auto RC

What makes this interesting further, the Jaguars did pick up Bortles’ option and have him for next year. However, with a late first round pick on the horizon, they might still draft a QB. That means the timer has started and with it any real potential that Bortles will be a long term option for the future. The problem for collectors is that Contenders 2014 was a design train wreck, only to be outdone by Prizm, which was the worst it has ever been. Topps Chrome autos can be difficult to find in good condition, and even harder to find in boxes because of the sheer volume of print run that year. Not a good indicator of success.

If he wins the Super Bowl, that might change things. They might be forced to see how it plays out and hold off one more year on drafting someone else. That being said, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, as did Brad Johnson. Sometimes its not about the QB. Not necessarily the best news to hear for collectors looking to buy in.

Case Keenum

Another very intriguing story line leading into the playoffs. Here is this improbable situation that has arguably made Keenum a valuable commodity heading into the 2018 offseason. Although he hasnt been a star to this point, his performance during the regular season has been nothing short of remarkable. He was an afterthought for the Vikings and may end up being the reason they finally break their purple curse.

Here is where Keenum is sitting right now:

2012 SP Authentic Case Keenum Auto RC BGS 9.5 – UD autos are some of the only on card examples he has.

2012 Contenders Case Keenum Ticket Auto RC

2012 Topps Platinum Case Keenum Auto RC Refractor – Only pro hard signed card?

More importantly, Pat Shurmur loves Keenum, and is leaving the team. That could play out in a very weird way, especially if Shurmur wants Keenum as his guy wherever he finally lands. If that is New York? No idea what happens with the fan base so in love with Eli Manning. Personally I think Eli is a joke, but that’s just me.

Keenum’s history in the NFL doesnt bode well for collecting potential, but his involvement in this miracle play, does. Minnesota collectors will always have a soft spot in their heart for Case, and that means his cards will never be worthless. On the other hand, if he wins the Super Bowl, it will mean a few things.

First, the Vikings will sign or franchise him. Two, the cards will be much more valuable than they are currently. Three, he will have many more cards to come. Four, Minnesota collectors will want more of his cards. All of these things should bode well. Hell, some of these might be true with a Super Bowl appearance, let alone a Super Bowl win.

Lastly, he only has a very limited number of on card autos on the market. His Contenders and other tent pole rookie cards are all sticker due to his non-RPS status. For good reason, many sticker rookies just dont have the same pull as tent pole rookie sets that are hard signed.

Nick Foles

Let me start by saying that any investment in Nick Foles is one that will likely end up with him on another team. Carson Wentz isnt going to be dethroned as the man to carry the team, as there is just too many reasons the team’s investments need to be maintained.

Also worth mentioning that Nick Foles has had a great season like Keenum’s current run on his stat sheet. If he does pull it off, that could reignite a lot of collectability in him, knowing some QB needy team is going to want to give him another shot. When you have a QB needy team, it likely also means you are a bad team, which wont bode well for Foles’ career prospects.

Some of the examples for Foles, which are plentiful as an RPS participant:

2012 National Treasures Nick Foles Rookie Auto Patch BGS 9.5

2012 Topps Chrome Nick Foles Black Refractor Auto RC /25

2012 Topps Five Star Nick Foles Booklet Auto Patch RC

More of a factor will be how Philly collectors embrace him if he does win the big game on the back of a great defense like Bortles and Keenum both have as well. Winning a title means you are collectible, period, but its rare that a back up like this has ever won a championship under these circumstances in any sport.

Of the three, I think Foles is the least collectible. He just doesnt sit with me as a player that has any real future with the team he will win with. Bortles and Keenum both will. That doesnt mean he wont catch on somewhere, but its unlikely he will ever receive the accolades for the win, unless he pulls off a miracle.

Man, to think we are a few days away from figuring this all out and this is the situation we are facing. Im happy its like this, as it makes things much more fun. If the same guy won all the time, it would never be interesting. Brady is that guy, and its nice to see other teams bring some color to the discussion.

Now that the 2017 regular season is over, and the Jimmy Garoppolo love fest has begun, Im curious how the playoffs will now set a hobby trajectory for the remaining releases left in the season. Also goes without saying that the games will generate some major buzz, especially if guys like Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota perform in the divisional round and make a deep run. This might also be the last hurrah for Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, which is a storyline all in its own right. Brady is the singular top name in the football hobby, and its going to be interesting to see what another Super Bowl run will do to his cards.

In the Wild Card games, we saw some crazy outcomes that I never really expected to be the case. We saw the Titans storm back from down 3 scores to win, and knock off a Chiefs team that had been world beaters during the first few weeks of the season. Being that Alex Smith has likely played his last game as a member of the team, its time for all those Patrick Mahomes collectors to come alive. We also saw Derrick Henry go off in the second half, including some impressive runs and a long TD. Considering that running backs RARELY make long term impacts in the hobby, Henry isnt one Im diving into head first. Demarco Murray is still on the roster, and Tennessee doesnt exactly have the largest collector base. However, he is Alabama made, so that helps.

Mariota is still a toss up with collectors, and his down season doesnt really sell that he needs a ton of new consideration he wasnt afforded before. Although collectors sure latched onto Jameis Winston during the 2017 offseason, im not sure if they will do the same for Mariota, despite a great win against a tough team on the road. You never know, and I really like Mariota as a long term prospect for some reason. He has the ability and talent to be great, and if he had anyone to throw to, he might be much more than mediocre. Collectors just need to find a reason, and things will go nuts. Prices have popped a bit with the recent win, but there is always more room. Corey Davis had an injury plagued season, so we will see what he does. Lets just hope the Titans dont give up that easily on both.

As for Kareem Hunt, he is still a top name in the class, despite being bottled up for most of the game Microgaming Adds. I would expect that will tail off next year, as I said that it takes a TON of momentum for RBs to keep up the value they build during their rookie season. Chief collectors will continue to buy in, but with Mahomes likely taking over, I could see a ton of focus shifting towards the new QB instead.

Speaking of dynamic running backs, Alvin Kamara is going to have the biggest test of his career next week. The Vikings will scheme to remove him from the game, and unlike Carolina, have the defense to hold Drew Brees accountable if the Saints continue to go back to their original plan prior to the new monster rushing attack they have cultivated. If he explodes against the league’s top defense, collectors should take notice. From all indications, Kamara is a game changing player, as we saw this year. Like Hunt, they both have the ability to break things wide open if not planned for accordingly. My only reservation is that Drew Brees is an elder statesman, and there is no real plan to pass the torch. That means Kamara will have a tougher time as the pass game becomes less effective, even though Michael Thomas looks like the real deal Microgaming Has Been Generous With Jackpots.

We also saw that Leonard Fournette and the Jags overcame a sloppy offensive game thanks to their defense, and it didnt exactly showcase how good Fournette could be. He had a great regular season, save injuries, and there is a lot to like. But like Kamara, QB futures may dictate how much potential success he could be capable of in the hobby. Blake “Bortle Kombat” Bortles looked like Tim Tebow last week, and that is not a compliment. He was unable to adjust to the wind or the defense, and was only effective at running the ball. Similar to Mariota, his receiver base needs MASSIVE improvement, but are you really staking your team on a guy who has shown he isnt capable for 4 years? Im not sure this past game was a good indicator.

Coming up next week, we will really get to see what Nick Foles and Case Keenum can do when inserted into the best possible situation for each QB. High powered offenses, great defenses, and all the reason to play a great game. If both or neither step up, expect major hobby implications. Scott Margereson: Bests Stacked Final Table at Poker. Foles has had his shot, but he could be aiming for a new job if he plays out of his mind. Carson Wentz is the future in Philly, even if they win the Super Bowl, but that doesnt mean that Foles wont get traded to a needy team. If he lays an egg, his hobby career is as done as it ever was.

Keenum has played well all year. Especially well considering they lost their starting RB and starting QB after the season began. He was thrown into the fire, and has performed well above expectations. Problem is, the defense needs to hold their own, and he just needs to be a game manager. If that happens, this is a championship team. Otherwise, im not confident Keenum might be able to overcome the massive hill without the lockdown on the other side of the ball. Keenum’s value has been creeping up for this reason, and there might be further life even if he does lead the Vikings out of the playoffs. Pat Shurmur wants to take him along for the ride as he begins a head coaching role with another team. That means there is potential for more starting time, and thus more hobby potential. If he wins the Super Bowl, the Vikings will franchise him before he signs somewhere else, and that will complicate a lot of different things in the hobby. Lastly, it hurts that he hasnt been with one team his whole career, as that means his rookie cards arent branded with the team he has had success with. It limits value, stupidly, but it is what it is.

The playoffs are an awesome time to be a collector, lets hope we get some hype around the names that we know drive product.