The story for 2017 baseball cards is Aaron Judge’s torrid pace, and his insane spike in hobby value as the year has progressed. Up until this point, he has a had a number of cards, including many in products from 2013 and beyond. One thing he hasnt had as much presence is with some of the super premium sets, like Museum.

Check out the goods:

2017 Museum Collection Aaron Judge Auto /299

2017 Museum Collection Aaron Judge Gold Framed Auto /10

I have been a big fan of Museum in the past, mainly because of the framed autos and how great those have been over the years. Judge has one, and it might be one of the main cards people want to pull out of the product. He also has a number of autographs elsewhere, including a few other examples that are hard signed.

Museum really has a ton of nice stuff:

2017 Museum Collection Kris Bryant Gold Framed Auto /10

2017 Museum Collection Bryce Harper Jumbo Patch Auto /15

Being that I hate the Yankees as much as I do, I havent really gotten caught up in Judge or Bellinger for that matter, either. Not only is Mike Trout the same age as the new Yankee star, but we have seen insanity like this fizzle out quickly as pitchers figure out how to work around the players. Right, Yasiel Puig? These cards are quickly approaching levels we didnt even see with Bryant, who was similarly hot in 2016 as the Cubs marched to the title. The thing is, Im not convinced Trout and Bryant are anything more than glaring exceptions to a dismal outlook for career longevity of players that have a small sample size of work in the bigs.

Although I do enjoy watching breaks of Museum, Finest, and the other products to see what gems get unearthed, I do weave a cautionary tale in my mind that this could end up so much like it has for so many other players. Prospecting is not about buying in now, its about 3 months too late for that. Buying in now, you may be as close to the ceiling as you are going to get, and comparative value isnt looking to be in your favor.

I write a post like this every time something like this run happens, and every time I find it to be an exercise in patience more than anything. As sets like Definitive Collection and other ultra premium stuff hits the market, its worth considering that just buying what you want is a better proposition overall. Until then, bask in the rays of Judge’s flame, because they might not be a long term thing.

Here is the thing. Football has been empty with out Topps Flagship, more so with the absence of Topps Chrome. No matter what Panini pulls out of their ass, they wont be able to come close the success that was had with the best non premium sets that any sport has had, period. Donruss is Panini’s knock off version of Topps’ base set, but unlike their counterpart, it seems like an afterthought rather than something that they actually decided to put some time into.

Topps Flagship had great looking cards EVERY fucking year, without fail, and its no surprise why it became the staple of the early part of the calendar for nearly half a century. Donruss isnt a bad set, save one tremendously enormous failure, but it isnt really a good set either. It was cheap fodder over the last few years and it looks like cheap fodder again. Sad that Panini overpaid their way into an NFL exclusive because the first 3/4ths of the year are so much more terrible without Topps’ massively successful sets.

What makes me the most upset is the rated rookie cards, which last year were laden with craptacular posed photos in an empty stadium. Instead of editing some of the action shots from the rookie premiere into faux-game shots, they took the cheap and lazy way out, using photos similar to everyone’s favorite dance battle participant. From the preview released yesterday, it looks like they didnt decide to remove their heads from their collective asses, choosing the same type of photo we got last year. Not only does this dampen an already slow moving set, but it puts another terrible mark on Optic, which will likely be released with the same pictures later this year.

Last year, Panini’s ineptitude in building good looking cards was masked by Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott running roughshod over the hobby. This year, there will likely be nothing to hide their shitty photo choices or terrible card design, leaving their horrendous products sitting spread eagle on the casting couch for everyone to see.

Bottom line, there is NO PLACE for these stupid ass pictures in my opinion. Using unedited photos that show no dynamic action is a method that showcases how little Panini cares about anything than running their presses overtime to get as many boxes onto the market, regardless of what it does to the resale value of their cards. When there isnt a record breaking rookie class to supplement their wares, the hobby will be left to pick up the pieces of their shattered calendar, something that never has to happen.

Its been a long year and a half without Topps in football, and as you can imagine, I am deeply distraught over my favorite products no longer being available. Some of them had been around for decades, others were a one and done, but they are all missed. Panini's track record of building new products is an absolute umitigated disaster, and that is on top of a calendar that was already severely lacking in regular top performing products. With that, here are the Topps products I want to see again if/when Panini deservedly loses the exclusive.

Topps Chrome

In my mind, there is no better football product available over a long period of time. It has been THE most consistent product in existence (in combination with base Topps), and when you see the way the community reacts to dogs like Optic, its clear how much Chrome is missed. Chrome created a market that has yet to be replicated, at a price point that is as low as it gets. There is a reason the top card of the year was always from this set, and why it isnt a contest anymore.

2014 Topps Chrome Odell Beckham RC Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

2015 Topps Chrome Marcus Mariota Patch Auto /75 BGS 9.5

2012 Topps Chrome Andrew Luck Pink Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

Topps Definitive Collection

This was the product of the year in 2015, and it SUCKS that it only got one year on the market. Panini has tried to build Flawless in a way that doesnt just appeal to group breakers, but they have failed year after year. At 1500 a box, Flawless is basically unbreakable if you are an individual. Its just too much money for cards that historically dont hold value the way Contenders or Treasures do. Definitive offered better looking and more interesting content than Flawless ever did, at a price that started below Treasures.

Definitive is a beast in every way:

2015 Topps Definitive Collection Marcus Mariota Framed Patch Auto

2015 Topps Definitive Marshawn Lynch / Russell Wilson Dual Auto

2015 Topps Definitive Collection Peyton Manning auto

Topps Inception

Let me start by saying that Panini’s blatant rip off looks exactly like Inception, but its not Inception in quality and execution. Panini ripped off the idea, but failed to use the right stock, right configuration, and right quality in the way the product was built. Its like buying Foakleys instead of Oakleys. In the end, its just a cheap knockoff that looks just like the real thing.

Here are some of my favorites:

2014 Inception Derek Carr Gold Inscription Auto

2014 Inception Jameis Winston Booklet Tag Patch Auto /5

2012 Inception Andrew Luck Auto Green /50

Topps Finest

Another great Chrome stock product, good enough that Panini modeled a portion of their calendar to mirror all the Chrome stock products with a copycat. Chrome was Prizm, Finest was Select, and Sterling was inexplicably built into Spectra. It all started in 2011 when Topps reconfigured everything for a modern approach. Once the new configuration was launched, the brand took a great turn for the better, and delivered some quality hard signed and sticker autos quite early in the year. Its always fun to rip en masse, as well as ripping by the box. I feel like this is where Panini has given up, as so many of their products seem to be configured at the case level, which makes them attractive solely to group breakers.

2015 Topps Finest Amari Cooper Atomic On Card Auto RC

2013 Topps Finest Le'Veon Bell Auto Patch Red Refractor /10

Topps Supreme

For a set that started out as shitty as Supreme did, they really, really turned it around. Tons of veteran autos, amazing patches, and some really cool booklet cards that I chased on a yearly basis. I think the final year of the set was even better than most years, with awesome die cutting action that brought a 3D element to each card. Panini just hasnt found a way to replicate much of this success at this price point.

2014 Topps Supreme Tom Brady Auto

2013 Topps Supreme Matt Ryan Jumbo Patch Auto BGS 9.5

Overall, I know its going to be a ton of time before any of these are even able to make a comeback, but a man can dream right?

Let me start off by saying that I always hate when the Yankees get talent in their pipeline like Aaron Judge. I am not a Yankee fan. Unlike most of the stars they acquire, Judge isnt a free agent they bought for the highest bid. Somehow that makes him more likable, and also more collectible. All that aside, his stats are unreal, and for 2017, its Aaron’s court. The hobby hasnt waited long to jump on the bandwagon.

Check out these prices:

2013 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge RC Auto Black

2013 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge Auto RC BGS 9.5

2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge Real One auto

2017 Topps Inception Aaron Judge Jumbo Patch Silhouette Auto

Now. Here is where things get interesting.

For the last few years there has been a MONSTER superstar that comes around and breaks the internet, sometimes more than one. Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and others seem to bring life to baseball cards because everyone wants a piece of the action. It goes back further with Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, and of course Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. With so many names lighting the world on fire, is it time to chill a bit? Abreu hasnt really replicated his success, Puig almost lost his job, and Strasburg was never the same after the injury. For every Kris Bryant and Mike Trout, there are so many other names that could be used as a counterpoint.

Of course, Aaron Judge has put up numbers that are a bit beyond what we saw from the other players, and his sheer number of autographs available dont help value. What made some of these guys so valuable is that autographs werent plentiful. Others like Bryant and Harper are a bit different, but they now have MVP awards and world series titles to bolster their resume.

Im not saying this is a fluke, or that he is destined for the career some of these guys have suffered, but I am warning about what might happen. Right Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor? All things considered though, Judge is good for cards. National attention brings casual collectors out of the woodwork, and that should always be celebrated.

Considering that Judge is a Yankee to boot is like a combo multiplier, as its clear that Yankee fans are hungry for their next collecting project alongside Jeter's latest Topps resurrection.

I always like seeing things explode and digging through my common box to see what I have, but as always, look at comparable value before you drop a mortgage payment on this guy’s stuff.

Here we go ladies and gentlemen, the true beginning of the 2017 football card year. Although I think there were a few bright spots last year, as a whole, I wouldnt give Panini above a D for rolling out worthwhile products across the entire year. Sets like Impeccable, NT, and Immaculate were exceptionally nice, but they are either exclusively broken by group breakers, or by the top 1% of the hobby. The average collector isnt going to break multiple boxes of ultra premium products, and that’s where Panini failed so miserably, I dont even have words to describe it.

Im hoping that 2017 will be a better use of the exclusive that Panini began last year, and the rookie premiere is the place where much of the beginning part of the year is funded. Last year, Panini failed to generate much buzz, using a cookie cutter rehash of Inception to drive on card content. Because Topps had already carved out the path with their product, an identical looking product wouldnt stray far in collector’s minds. That was one of the only new products that Panini did even remotely okay, and it wasnt even their idea. That is scary.

Origins is back again for this year, and much like last year, its featuring a direct copy of Topps’ previous cards, made cheaper by too early of a print deadline, which forced an ungodly amount of double zero jerseys. Origins WILL be one of the best looking things to come out of this weekend, as we see the retouched Elite mug shot cards are back for a second year. Instead of rolling with college action shots retouched or even straight, Panini’s team actually took the time to go through and edit these goofy photos normally used for player designation. Its crazy.

My largest complaint from last year was the over dependence on posed photographs used in SO MANY of Panini’s product lines during the year. As we saw Upper Deck and Topps close out their product licenses, both companies RARELY used this style of photography because A) Its fucking goofy looking B) the players arent fashion models and C) company owned action shots from the premiere look more dynamic. If I had my way, these would be eradicated from ALL products. Unfortunately, Panini uses the premiere to take players OFF the field more than on it, and that is just ass backwards. The premiere was originally designed to provide the licensees an opportunity to interact with the players and get on field photos for their goods, knowing that real game photos were both expensive to maintain/obtain, and unavailable until Q3.

Instead of dynamic photos of players doing their best to look like they are in a game, Panini sets up tents, takes players into stairwells, and uses a ton of time to get posed photos of attendees using cliche poses to use on cards. From my experience, the products that use these photos in a dominant fashion are rarely ever successful, and if I had my way, they would be gone forever. Football provides the ability to capture the most dynamic activity of arguably any sport, and for whatever goddamned reason, Panini thinks they know better. Aside from the inferior design across all products compared to competition, photo choice has been the cards’ worst flaw.

Right now, Im eager to see what happens with some added time across the calendar. This is year two, and year two better be better than year one. Its clear that there are enormous reasons why improvement has to be the name of the game this season. Garbage sets like Unparalleled, Phoenix, Infinity and Gala need to either be scrapped or completely and utterly retooled. Winners like Origins, Impeccable and Optic need to have some aspect of year over year improvement. So far, that prospect is slim based on track record.