I havent had the chance to sit down and write very much lately, as work as been insane. That doesnt mean I have stopped paying attention, either. When Select was announced as a fourth set in as many weeks for Panini, I was skeptical that it wouldnt be just another product that will clog up the cool down period after the Super Bowl. I mean, Encased might have been one of the worst looking and worst value products for the price all year, but Select had potential. I always liked it more than I liked Prizm, as the design work was consistently better through its run.

Check out some of the top cards:

2016 Select Ezekiel Elliott Auto Jumbo Patch RC /25

2016 Select Aaron Rodgers Die Cut Auto 1/1

2016 Select Barry Sanders Auto Relic /5

2016 Select Dak Prescott Red Refractor Auto Patch

This year’s product, with the inclusion of the XRC redemptions really took me by surprise. Full game photos, great looking designs, and the addition of the content around the new rookies was awesome, and I really think people should not be surprised how much the price has increased per box. Its almost tough to break it at the current price, as you are now even more guaranteed to lose money on a break, but this might be the best group break product out there, and I dont think its going to be touched by Treasures or Flawless.

Select was originally part of Panini’s line of Topps Chrome rip offs, and though I dont think the identity crisis is gone in that regard, I really like the parallels with the Finest set it was built upon. With Prizm also looking extremely good this year, this leaves Optic as the only garbage product of the three recent Chrome style products, and its because of the rated rookies, not because of the rest of the set. Had Optic not chosen the horrible photos for those cards, I think Panini would have had 3 great looking Chrome replacement products this year.

The XRC cards are selling very well too, all things considered. Outside of Leonard Fournette, there really isnt a surefire Superstar QB to drive up product values this early on. Deshaun Watson is a good name, but I dont think he is the consensus pick for Top QB. That leaves a lot of speculation around which player will fall where, and the way the redemptions are structured is a really good opportunity to stock up. Hopefully the cards will be photo shoot action pictures of the players in their NFL uniforms, but we will have to wait and see.

Im a fan of Select this year, and man, that is a surprise to me.

Let me start off this post by saying I am indifferent. I think that group breaks are part of the culture in the hobby right now, and there is nothing any of us can really do to change that in the near future. That being said, I think there is a legitimate discussion for whether or not their presence in the grand scheme of things helps or hurts.

Why Group Breaks Are a Good Thing

Right now, the cost of wax is insane, made even more bonkers by how often you can walk away with so little of a return on your investment. When you go to a casino and gamble, you dont lose your money 90% of the time unless you are really drunk or really dumb. Does this mean its better to head to a casino than a local shop if money is your game? Yeah, probably. Its pretty clear that the products today dont deliver on a regular basis, and though there are hot streaks and cold streaks, wax is a losing venture for most sets. What makes this troublesome is that shops and manufacturers depend on wax sales, and if collectors continually feel like nothing is being delivered for what they pay, its not good.

Enter Group Breaks.

Dont want to shoulder the burden of an entire box of Flawless at 1500 a pop? Spend significantly less and still partake. Clearly, this is a much more positive outcome than walking away with nothing on a box that costs triple the monthly payment of a Tesla. Not only do we get to feed our addiction – and that is exactly what it is – but we also get to participate in the hobby’s equivalent of a five star restaurant.

When things are so out of hand that 95% of the collectors out there refuse or are unable to participate in the way that manufacturers need, that’s a huge problem. The market becomes exponentially smaller, with very little prospect of expanding. Group breaks provide a band aid for that issue, as the risk is much smaller for the individual, and shouldered by the group instead.

I stand by my take that this hobby is 100% unsustainable long term. Its just not possible for anyone to survive if the trends continue the way they are going. Group breaks do provide relief in the short term, but even they are not immune from a terrible draft class or another recession. This hobby is all disposable income, and if the purchase of wax no longer provides any chance of value, I think there will be a lot of reason that this industry will fail.

Why Group Breaks Are Not Good For Anyone

There is one word that I throw around on a regular basis, and it is the reason why my indifference to group breaks comes with major red flags. The word is reinforcement, both on the strategy and the product side. Group breaks not only give false hope that people are interested in terrible products, but false hope that the strategy of the current hobby is a worthwhile one to continue.

Right now, Im pretty sure that there are multiple breaks for every product that is released. From the good stuff all the way down to any of the NCAA products that Panini puts out. Every set gets a rip, and it inflates the failure line to a marginal success pretty much every time. Release Infinity football that is collecting dust on every shop shelf in the country? Broken by group breakers on a regular basis. Release a basketball product that Panini had to issue a special offer because it was so terrible? Cases were broken. These products should have been nothing but unadulterated failures that instead made money because of group breaks.

There is also reinforcement that the strategy currently employed by every company is working. Oddly enough, the strategy might be the only strategy available right now because of cost, but the group breakers are extending the life of this strategy more than it ever should have been able to live. The strategy of returning value in so few boxes may have a terminal diagnosis regardless, as I have seen group breaks go unfilled more and more as the months pass.

From a fundamental perspective, the companies believe that they can churn out tens of thousands of cases, most of which do not have perceived value to the person that is designed to be the end user. Dont believe me? Look at the number of people who have literally stopped opening boxes. They wait for the group breaks to produce the singles they want, and just buy them on eBay for a fraction of the cost of a box.

There is a reason the hobby has shrunk at such a significant rate over the last decade. Its been a veritable fucking disaster from an active buyer perspective, and though these new break formats have helped calm the wave, its not even close to a dam against the flood of apathy.

Overall, there are very good things to say about what group breaks are capable of. Just be cognizant of the flip side of the equation. Dont let short term success cloud your judgment of what is definitely not a positive outlook for the industry.

Much to my happiness, Leaf has not given up on football, despite Panini making things pretty difficult for competitors. After announcing an exclusive with Leonard Fournette earlier this month, Panini seems to be on the same track they were in Basketball. I would be scared if I were them, as Leaf’s products made them look completely silly last time this situation rolled around.

These cards were AWESOME last year, and the wax is barely available unless you are willing to pay a huge price:

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Dak Prescott Auto RC BGS 9.5

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Ezekiel Elliott Auto Green Refractor BGS 9.5

2016 Leaf Metal Draf Tom Brady Auto BGS 9.5

Like we saw last year, Leaf’s autographs are all on card, where Panini’s will be sticker, unless something changes. The design looks similar to last year, which is a good thing, as I think the Leaf Metal and Trinity looks were MILES ahead of any retread products Panini put out. I love that they run low prints of their products, and the cards are basically copies of Topps Chrome. That’s a good thing, as they did a really good job retouching photos and making the cards look attractive even without logos.

The issue, as always, is that no one knows who to collect before the draft, other than names and potential targets for their team. Obviously the Top QBs like Trubisky, Watson and Kizer will be good players to chase, and that list might include a few lineman and receivers as well. Even with Fournette, this class looks exceptionally mediocre from a potential perspective, but so did 2016 originally as well. I dont think we are going to have Dak and Zeke 2.0, but we might get some good rookies that always seem to come through the fray early on.

Im a huge Leaf fan, and hope they continue to produce sets like this – if not only to stick it to their main competitors of what a good looking 100% on card product can look like.

This ended up being a pretty awesome year for football cards, and it all has to do with two players. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott took the world by storm and brought some heat to a product calendar that was definitely lacking much warmth. Even with their historic achievements this year, Panini’s products continued to fall flat, especially on the NCAA front and with new brands launched for 2016.

As we see with every year, Panini hasnt adjusted the way they make products, knowing that group breakers and online resellers will continue to bail them out as long as it is profitable. When even that doesnt work for some of the terrible products they make, we get promos like what we are seeing with their Super Bowl boxes that are being shipped with qualifying buys from their website.

Here are some of the cards already up so far:

2017 Panini Private Signings Andrew Luck Auto 4/5

2017 Panini Private Signings Carson Wentz Auto Patch /10

2017 Panini Private Signings Matt Ryan Auto 1/1

2017 Panini Private Signings Andy Dalton Auto Patch /10

Over the last few years, the cards in these promos have looked nothing short of horrendous, but this year, it looks like they are actually pretty good looking. They still use a ton of rainbow foil and all sorts of crazy patterning on the stock, but the design behind the glitz is better than it has been.

The problem with Panini promos is that the cards drop like a rock on the secondary market once the player collectors and team collectors get their fill of cards they need. Because the products arent advertised in traditional fashion, everyone else doesnt even know to look for them. As much as these promos probably work, they create a long standing realization that overproduction of shitty products is a HUGE problem for Panini.

At some point, when a rookie class tanks like it did in 2013, there will be no way to reclaim that level of discrepancy between the actual demand of a product like and the perceived supply that Panini wants to create. I find it hilarious that collectors believe this is just Panini being nice, but it is far from that. They need to clear shelves as the 2016 card season comes to a close, even more so that the Super Bowl is now over.

We have already seen Panini forcibly demand that shops and dealers take on cases of worthless (AND EXPENSIVE) NCAA product just to get their hands on National Treasures, a practice that Upper Deck started using with Exquisite to move failing golf and soccer sets they couldnt get rid of. This isnt fair for the shops that are already sitting on enormous amounts of unsold garbage, which is not a good sign for a year where the class was actually good. What happens when we have another 2013? Good luck.

I sincerely hope people understand how bad this type of practice is, and how much it reinforces dangerous behavior when it comes to over printing a product that has no real reason to exist. I mean, there was no fucking reason in hell that there should have been even one box of Unparalleled, let alone 25,000.

I love today and I hate today. I love the excitement, I love the pageantry, I love that we finally get to see a new champion crowned. I hate that its the last football of the year, and that until the draft, a barren wasteland of boring sports is to follow until Football gets going again in September.

For once, there are a number of things to watch for, all of which are very crucial to the hobby’s progression over the next few months.

Will Tom Brady Solidify His Legacy as the Greatest of All Time?

I already believe he is the greatest of all time, but with a win today, its not even a question. He will have the most Super Bowls of any QB, he will be the greatest success story ever, and all of that can have a nice cherry on top today. Scary thing is, Brady believes he can play into his 40s, and based on his play this season, I have no reason to disagree with him.

Already seeing some record prices already:

2014 Immaculate Tom Brady Auto Jumbo Patch

2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady Rookie Ticket Auto

2015 National Treasures Tom Brady Auto Patch /15

2002 Topps Tom Brady Super Bowl Relic Auto /150

Hobby wise, there is no one that has more impact in football cards than Tom Brady, and I used to say there was no room for his autograph to be more valuable than it already is. Im not sure that is a true statement after tonight. I have wanted a nice rookie auto of his for a long time, but he has never sucked enough for prices to drop low enough. That isnt going to change any time soon.

Can Matt Ryan Get the Hobby Love He Deserves With a Victory?

Right now, he is riding a great season, an MVP award and a bright future into this game, and yet, he isnt “elite” as a person that collectors flock to. The Falcons arent a widely collected team, despite their success, and Ryan has signed quite a bit over the last few years. Much to the benefit of the companies who had Matt Ryan sign a ton since 2008, this year could be the time where he finally gets his chance to shine.

Here is where he sits right now:

2014 Topps Five Star Matt Ryan Auto Inscription

2008 Exquisite Matt Ryan Auto Patch RC /25

I actually think the Falcons have a great shot to win, and considering how Dan Quinn must feel about the last time he played the Pats in a big game, Ryan hopefully wont make the same poor choice to throw Malcom Butler’s way if it comes down to the last play of the game.

Will Julio Jones Live Up to His Season?

If the Falcons are going to win, Julio will need a similar performance to what we saw in the NFC championship game. That will be fine with all the people who waited almost half a decade for him to sign his cards from Panini, as the timing couldnt be better.

Outside of his rookie year, he has signed little to nothing in terms of cards, and that’s a problem for his fans. There just arent a lot of cards to go around, and this might be a feeding frenzy if he brings Atlanta their first championship.

Can the Super Bowl Running Backs Steal the Show?

Right now, if you arent named Elliott or Peterson, you really dont see value in the hobby. Running backs just dont get love anymore, if not only because careers are short, and the workhorse back is dead in the league. This means, for guys like Freeman and Blount, a championship wont do what it did for Marshawn Lynch. Even Le’veon Bell doesnt get the love he deserves, and that’s saying something.

Im curious how the hobby will react if one of the backs has a game like Dion Lewis did during the playoffs. This would be one of the more important games to test the collectability of the position, and I really want to see what happens.

The game is about to start, and if you are like me, this bittersweet event always takes on a hobby focus for me. Good luck to all the Pats and Falcons fans out there tonight, enjoy it, regardless of what happens.