We are two games into the playoffs and already we have seen what some of the new big names of the hobby can bring. Some of these guys have been around for a while before catching fire, while others are brand new. This will happen all post season, so be prepared for some major spikes in value that may never be replicated again. Right David Freese?

Jake Arrieta – P, Chicago Cubs

ERA has become one of those stats that people arent valuing as much these days, much like Wins. Arrieta’s feat of having an ERA of less than 1 after the All Star Break is still impressive regardless. Last night, Arrieta was lights out, as expected, and led the Cubs to a complete game shut out in arguably the most important game in the last 10-15 years for his team. Sadly, he has had NO licensed autographs, period. His rookie autos are all from Elite or Just Minors, and that sucks. Either way, the cards have started to come up even further than they already have during his Cy Young consideration.

Here are some of the top cards:

2008 Bowman Sterling Jake Arrieta USA Auto Relic

2008 Bowman Chrome Jake Arrieta XFractor RC BGS 9.5

2007 Elite Extra Edition Jake Arrieta Auto RC

Kyle Schwarber – C, Chicago Cubs

Amid the monster hobby campaign for his teammate, Schwarber had a STELLAR rookie season. Monster in some senses. Last night, his two hits put the Cubs ahead, with 3 RBIs and a 2 run HR. This guy is looking to be one of those prototypical power hitters, and at a position that rarely has those types of players. His Chrome autos are already up over 100, but there could be room for a higher ceiling if he plays this well in the next few games too.

Unlike the others on this post, he is well represented:

2014 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Auto Red Refractor BGS 9.5

2014 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Auto Refractor RC

2015 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber Purple Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

Dallas Keuchel – P, Houston Astros

There were a handful of guys in the AL that had a season like Keuchel did, and his performance in the Wild Card game was a showcase of exactly how awesome he has been playing. Not only was he on short rest, but he still managed to go out there and shut down a VERY potent lineup. The Astros could have a long stretch of great seasons ahead of them if Keuchel and the rest of their young core continues to light it up. He only has a few licensed autographs, but like Arrieta, has no Chrome auto RC. Really too bad in that situation.

Here are his top cards:

2009 Bowman Chrome Dallas Keuchel Gold Refractor RC /50

2014 Topps Supreme Dallas Keuchel Auto Base

2015 Diamond Kings Dallas Keuchel Auto Dual Relic

There will be plenty of time for more heroes to emerge, and like Allen Craig and the like, they could only shine bright for one night. For a hobby built around nostalgia, that might be all it takes.

We are now a quarter of the way through the 2015 season, and through that time, we have gotten a pretty clear picture of early impact for the top rookies of the year. As expected, certain rookies have been able to showcase why they were drafted so high, while others have struggled. As a whole, the football market remains pretty soft, and I dont see that changing anytime soon – much to my dismay.

Jameis Winston

When the Buccaneers drafted him, it was clear that he was going to have his work cut out for him. The offensive line was among the worst in the league, and his running game was practically non-existent. The hobby was high on his potential because of his performances in college, but his first few games have not shown anything to get really excited about. I would normally say we should wait before jumping to conclusions, but this is a hobby that rarely provides any respite from criticism and its relationship to value.

2015 Immaculate Jameis Winston Auto Variation /5

2015 Inception Jameis Winston Silver Signatures Auto RC

2015 Topps Jameis Winston 1987 Super Rookie Auto /25

Marcus Mariota

Unlike Winston and the learning curve that was going to be necessary for him to succeed, the Titans built a very simple offense for Mariota to thrive within. Shorter throws, high completion percentage, etc, all with the idea of using the system he was successful with in College. His 4 TD performance in week one catapulted him into the hobby stratosphere, but he also played reasonably well in the next two games. He has 8 TDs to 2 picks, and for a rookie that is very good news.

2015 Topps Marcus Mariota Signature Series Auto SSP

2015 Upper Deck Inscriptions Marcus Mariota Auto RC

2015 Topps Marcus Mariota Rookie Premiere Auto

Amari Cooper

I was high on him coming out of college, and other than Mariota, Cooper looks to be the top valued rookie in the class. His cards have sold EXTREMELY well for a WR, and his stats show that he is performing better than most rookie receivers play. His 24 receptions leads the rookie class, as does his 2 TDs. The hobby loves what he brings to a popular team, and I expect he might come out of this class as one of the more prominent names.

2015 Donruss Elite Amari Cooper New Breed Auto Relic

2015 Bowman Chrome Amari Cooper Blue Refractor Auto /99

Todd Gurley

Although his ACL recovery session kept him out of the first few games, he exploded last week with 155 yards rushing. RBs are rarely drafted high in the NFL anymore, and its becoming evident why Gurley was given that distinction. The hobby soured on his absence a bit, but prices are back up after the performance last week. Definitely going to be interesting to see if they hold, especially if he can continue to perform.

2015 Panini VIP Todd Gurley Red Wave Auto BGS 9.5

2015 Leaf Trinity Todd Gurley Inscription Auto

2015 Topps Inception Todd Gurley Auto Red /75

Melvin Gordon

San Diego hasnt exactly shown that they arent overrated this year, almost coming up short against the now 0-4 Lions, and getting shellacked by the Vikings. Gordon has gotten his fair share of carries, but has yet to find the endzone. Collectors are tired of waiting for RBs in San Diego to pan out, as Rivers continues to be the focus on the team.

2015 Topps Melvin Gordon Auto SP Variation

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Melvin Gordon Red Refractor Auto /5 BGS 9.5

Ameer Abdullah

As the third RB in a deep class, Abdullah had a stellar preseason and a TD in week one. Since then, the Lions offense has sputtered behind an injury riddled offensive line. The entire team has struggled to find their groove, and he has not been able to replicate success as a result. Collectors have cooled as well, but that is to be expected when a playoff team starts the season 0-4.

2015 Topps Ameer Abdullah Mini 1963 Retro Auto

2015 Prizm Draft Picks Ameer Abdullah Auto Refractor

Early Surprises

Matt Jones – RB Washington

The Redskins looked like a dumpster fire coming into 2015, especially with the RGIII situation playing out on the national stage. Matt Jones looked great in the first games of the year, and the hobby responded in kind. He is still very cheap, and he might be the person to shoulder most of the carries in Washington if he continues to perform.

2015 Bowman Chrome Matt Jones Superfractor Auto 1/1

2015 Donruss Elite Matt Jones Auto

Karlos Williams – RB Buffalo

Another rookie RB that has played very well, with 3 TDs so far this year already. With LeSean McCoy struggling to stay healthy, he has gotten more of the stage. His cards went from worth nothing to worth something, and that says a lot for a position that is all but dead in cards today.

2015 Inception Karlos Williams Auto Pink Parallel

2015 Prestige Karlos Williams Auto RC

Even though the bigger named rookies are still ramping up, customers are already looking to find their targets as the premium products start to roll out. I would expect that as sets like Finest and Platinum hit shelves, we should have a better idea of what 2015 will eventually look like in terms of potential for this season. Collectors fail to see that many rookies can take years to develop, and that spells a buyers market for a lot of the guys out there. This is a good time to get your cards, especially if your target isnt a big name.

I am sad to say that today is the last day of the Baseball season. It has been nothing short of amazing this year, and it is bittersweet to see such a banner year come to a close. Although the season is ending, it is doing so with the Angels and Astros hoping to punch their ticket to the post season. With those two teams in the mix, so are Mike Trout and Carlos Correa, two players that collectors continue to chase with reckless abandon. If the Astros win, they are in, and if they lose, the Angels can get in with a win. Going to be crazy.

Mike Trout – MVP Candidate

2008 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Orange Refractor Auto /25

2015 Triple Threads Mike Trout / Hank Aaron / Ken Griffey Jr Triple Auto Relic

2015 Supreme Mike Trout On Card Auto SSP /25

If you have been paying attention to Trout’s cards over the last few months, they have not softened at all during another season where he is a guy that SHOULD win the MVP based on the advanced statistics. Trout’s hobby value should have already hit its ceiling having won the MVP last year, but it seems like his cards continue to go higher. He is one of those people that continues to amaze, and has a tremendous personality to go along with it. That is a recipe for continued value in this sport.

Topps has Trout locked up on an exclusive, and rightfully so. He is that generational player that manufacturers drool over. Any and every card featuring his autograph sells, regardless of what it looks like. He is great to work with, he signs his stuff, and he obviously charges an amount that works well for everyone involved. When you add in that any collector would fight and claw to get his cards, its crazy to think how valuable that is for a company like Topps.

Carlos Correa – ROY Candidate

2013 Bowman Chrome Carlos Correa Auto RC BGS 10

2014 Bowman Platinum Carlos Correa Auto BGS 9.5

2015 Heritage High Numbers Carlos Correa Auto Real One

I dont think many were expecting the Astros to compete the way they have. Not only are they one of those last to first stories this year, they have a core of young players who will make them competitive for years. Another recent Topps exclusive signed, Carlos Correa has taken the hobby world by storm in 2015. He is also someone I named the Hobby MVP and ROY as his meteoric rise has been nothing short of amazing. Not only is he a value position, but he seems to have all five tools in his back pocket.

Even though there is really only one Trout like player per generation, Correa is looking like there might be another in the works. Although he was the number one pick, many collectors were lukewarm on him at best for the first few years of his minor league career. The number two pick in Byron Buxton was getting all the attention, but Correa showed why he should have been the main focus as soon as he was called up.

Of all the rookie players potentially making an impact in the post season, I have to say that Correa’s cards should be the ones that move the most. If the Astros make it, and he plays well, look out. That should be pretty clear. Even better, if he doesnt play well, his cards wont likely drop that far. Its a no lose proposition.

I wish there was a way to get both of these guys into the post season. No doubt about it. With Harper likely a top MVP candidate, the baseball collecting world might be in the best spot it has been in for a very long time. There is a huge group of people who will argue that there are more fireworks on the way, especially with guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Sano and others all getting more reps next year to see what they really have. This is going to be a fun post season regardless. Stay tuned for a breakdown tomorrow of collectible names to chase.

I still find it baffling that Panini can succeed with this product without Jordan or Lebron Autos. I also find it baffling that people will pay the extra money JUST because the player quality in a box is much more increased over a product like National Treasures. Although there are logos for the first time this year in Flawless, and the design does look great, it seems overpriced for content that is available in other products. To this day, no Flawless set has offered anything that is so unique that it makes up for the price tag. I guess a better collation rate of big names is worth paying the extra money to a lot of people. I dont get it personally.

Even with all my reservations, this is definitely “one of those products” that is more of an event each year:

14-15 Flawless Andrew Wiggins Rookie Auto Patch Red /15

14-15 Flawless Andrew Wiggins Momentous Patch Auto /20

14-15 Flawless Steph Curry Jumbo Logo Patch Auto /5

14-15 Flawless Wilt Chamberlain Dual Patch /5

Now, at 1650 per box, you would expect that hitting a Wiggins patch auto would net you more money than hitting one out of Treasures, especially considering it A) Looks a million times better, and B) is lower numbered on the base parallel. That isnt the way it looks to be working out, especially once the initial release bump cools off. Similarly, if you dont hit one of the nicer rookies in your box, its going to be more and more likely you will take greater than a 40% loss overall. That isnt terrible for a high end product in the least, but again, basketball is just a crazy sport.

NOTE: I havent seen Jabari Parker with any listed autographs yet. That is concerning to me if he is not on the checklist.

Similarly, there are some really questionable names on this checklist, something that Panini has made a name for themselves on with sets of this cost. Although the overall collation provides better hits at a much better rate than a box of treasures, man some of these non-RC players are shitty as hell. They definitely do not belong on this checklist and I would argue that even having them as part of NT would be a slap in the face.

My favorite cards in the whole product are the momentous auto patches, which like NT feature a horizontal orientation and a 1×2 patch. The cards are easily some of the better looking cards I have seen come out of a Panini product this year. The issue is that they look almost identical to ones you can pull out of NT, which again seems odd to me. Although the ones in NT are rookies /10, Flawless should offer something unique. It should offer something that isnt available anywhere else. I feel so strongly about this, even though as said before, the cards look really fucking cool. If I am going to spend the money, I feel like I should get something that is special – more than just a better chance of getting the Durants and Shaqs. If Jordan or Lebron were to make their debut, we would have a different story, but that isnt the case.

I have said over and over again, that I know people love this product. I know people will PAY for this product, so I cant fault Panini for trotting it out year after year. That being said, I dont think we have seen anywhere close to what COULD have been done with it. If Upper Deck ever gets a license back, there will be some serious fireworks if they decide to try their hand. Obviously, that isnt in the cards at the moment.

When Topps launched Five Star in football back in 2010, I was literally floored by how beautiful the cards were. Not only was it the only NFL licensed football product that had all on card autos, but every single one of the cards looked as premium as it should. Topps eventually ported the set over to baseball, mostly with diminished results. High end in baseball rarely works, unless you die cut lame crap into the card and slap a Triple Threads logo on it. I know, I know, I dont get it either.

Here are some of the big hits up so far:

2015 Topps Five Star Kris Bryant Auto RC

2015 Topps Five Star Sandy Koufax Auto Green /5

2015 Topps Five Star Francisco Lindor Auto RC

Thus, Five Star Baseball continues to look awesome, but has never really lived up to the hype. It has been plagued by checklist issues, content issues, and paled in comparison to recent hit products like Dynasty, which seemed to offer more of what high end baseball collectors wanted. In the same vein, there is still a legit argument that super premium products in baseball rarely work without a significant push for crazy content.

This year’s Five Star is retooled to be a 2 card box in a very different format. Instead of 3 boxes per case with 6 cards per box, its now 8 boxes per case. I actually like this format change a lot, even though it isnt the same potential wow factor “ooooh gotta slide to the next card” type of experience when opening a box. At the same time, its not as much of a kick in the nuts to strike out on a 150 dollar box versus a 500 dollar box. There may be more duds, but the positive perception of opening a cheaper box is much different.

The product remains all on card, and has some LARGE cards to pull from the set. The jumbo patch autos alone should fetch some nice money, and I have already seen some fun names on the checklist. The main problem is that Correa is not in this product from what I can tell, and that is going to pose some issues that can only be made up by other bigger names.

Players like Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard Francisco Lindor, and of course Kris Bryant will definitely pick up some of the slack along side the usual big names. Trout, Kershaw, Ichiro, Aaron, Koufax and Ripken all have cards, and that will be great, and the logo patch cards with cut signatures will be cool too.

My favorite cards in the inscriptions are gone for a second year, and that makes me incredibly sad, even though it does continue to make the older versions more desirable. I do like that they have continued with the gold and silver signings, but those inscription cards are what made Five Star what it is. They ditched them in Football too, only to see the entire product likely replaced by Definitive Collection, which seems to be quite the bombshell set in itself.

I cant help but feel like Five Star is turning into a higher premium Topps Supreme product with all on card autographs, and I am also not sure if that is a bad thing. We will see how this year’s set performs, and this might be one last trot around the bases before something else gets a look in this part of the calendar. If Five Star goes away in 2016, I am still going to miss it regardless.