When creating the product release calendar, many companies avoid releasing products on the same day to get the most out of the sales. In a market and economy like this, I really have no idea why Panini and Topps decided to release their new products on the same day, especially when they have similar  one pack formats. The content structure may be different, with supreme being more like Ultimate Collection, and Plates and Patches being more like Limited, but the results are pretty much the same. Each set is hard to justify as a stand alone creation, with many of the boxes not even coming close to living up to what you pay. This leads to many people walking away unsatisfied with their break, and the singles market being the place to be.

Common Box Hits

Plates and Patches is based around a single encased box hit, followed by a few other secondary hits, while supreme offers one hit per box just like Ultimate would. The problem is that many of the box hits are lack luster in just about every case, especially in the checklists and the design itself. For Plates and Patches, the rookie auto patches have a million parallels, with some of them even containing EVENT USED FOOTBALLS! Give me a fucking break. Any product that uses these lame cop out swatches automatically gets my thumbs down, but as a box hit, its even worse. The design itself for these rookie patch cards isnt bad, but it just doesnt meet expectations for a set of this price. In Supreme, the product might as well be Triple Threads with no shitty die cut windows, as the cards are pretty much identical. I hate the tiny player pictures, the sticker autos built into the design, and the many different parallels, which is only exacerbated by how awesome Five Star is looking. Because I know what Topps is capable of, this product is in a different zip code of quality.

When you compare the two, I have to give Plates and Patches the edge, just because the cards are better looking. Supreme suffers from riding the Triple Threads design, and that is not a good thing.

Winner: Plates and Patches

Chase Box Hits

Supreme’s sell sheet talks all about the chase element to the product, and there are definitely a lot of 1/1s that litter this set. On the other hand, a lot of them are pretty much “been there done that” type of things, with no redeeming creativity to them. I have seen horrifically composed signed letter autos where the material around the letter has been removed, and I have also seen logos and laundry tags. I wouldnt chase any of them. In Plates and Patches, the chase element is definitely a big focus, but a small majority of them are cool. The veteran NFL logo cards are actually some of the nicer ones this year from Panini, and the jumbo patch cards are better than I expected them to be. On the other hand, Panini included Printing Plate cards (Haha, get it? PLATES and Patches), and for those, I dont see any reason to buy them. They look incredibly ugly, have little value to people like me who value cool pictures on a card, and just perpetuate more “1/1s” to flood the market.

In comparison, the NFL logos win this for Panini, but thats about it.

Winner: Plates and Patches

Jersey Cards

The fact that you can buy a box of supreme and end up with a jersey card of Jordan Shipley is the main reason to STAY FAR AWAY from Supreme. At least with Ultimate, the Jersey cards had at least three players on them, something that could have made Supreme a lot better. The supreme jersey cards, in terms of design, are again just triple threads without the die cuts, so you know I am going to hate them. In fact, I would go as far as saying they ruin the entire product. As for Plates and Patches, the jersey cards are typical Panini, parallels of their sticker autographed counterparts. In many cases they are a complete disaster, and this includes the creepy helmet off rookie jersey cards that Panini went with AGAIN. I dont understand why Panini has such a hard on for studio shot rookie photos with no helmets, as it just looks fucking terrible.

In this category, when you have cards like THIS and THIS, no one wins.

Winner: NEITHER

Base Cards

I actually think the supreme base cards and the autographed parallels of the supreme base cards are pretty cool. They are gold foil plated, and feature some cool action shots. In a product like Supreme, the base cards are a relative afterthought, but at least they arent junk looking. At the very least, they make for nice autographed parallels, cards that are the best part of the entire product. In Plates and Patches, im not even sure base cards exist, but the non-hit cards are just like every other Panini set this year. They look awkwardly designed, mainly because they were meant to have autos and jersey swatches in them, and without those elements they look incomplete.

For the most unimportant part of this entire review, Topps wins.

Winner: Supreme

Overall

In the end, neither of these products warms my fuzzies, but I think Plates and Patches has more elements that I would buy into as a singles collector. Many of the cards still scream panini in your ear though the design and card composition, but the successful cards are relatively nice. With Supreme, many of the cards are just rehashed Triple Threads crap, which detracts completely from the success of a new brand for Topps. If Supreme was done like Ultimate was last year, with on card autos, a great design and chase content similar to Ultimate, it would have been a huge win in the same way Five Star will be.  In terms of Plates and Patches, it is another product that will blur together with the other crap Panini has put out this year.

Winner: Topps Five Star’s Potential For Success

In any given product release, the manufacturer holds back up to 2% of the print run for replacements due to collation errors or quality control problems. That 2% has to consist of both hits, unopened product and base, with some higher dollar cards to make sure that any damaged big hits can be replaced with equal value. I get that some people may be pissed with this practice, but I can see why it is a complete necessity.  However, there is no reason why one of those hits from the QC 2% should have been the BIGGEST FUCKING HIT IN THE ENTIRE PRODUCT.

On blowout, one of the collectors was displaying their haul from a recent run of Panini replacements due to elongated waits on redemptions, only to show something that made a lot of people angry. In his replacements for his unfufilled redemptions was the biggest card available in 2010 Certified Football. The Sam Bradford Mirror Black Quad NFL Logo Autograph was there, as plain as day, obviously one of the cards that Panini held back for the reason displayed above. Based on the fact that the biggest available autograph patch card in the whole print run was not available for a collector to obtain in packs, many of the commenters including myself, think something needs to be said by the company. Its one thing if a low numbered autograph or two has to be held back for safety, but to hold back this card is like taking away the main advertised content that EVERYONE is looking for without telling the customers. Its a terrible PR bomb for Panini, and the backlash is definitely going to be huge.

It may have been a mistake, but that doesnt matter in this case. It has to do with the fact that you cant make it up to the people who were already busted pack after pack, box after box. I think something needs to be done, but Im not sure if Panini has the balls to even admit they made a mistake. Companies usually have a “bury our heads in the sand and hope it blows over” approach, but I dont think that will fly in this case.

I absolutely hated a good portion of this product in general, as the foil and design were terrible in my eyes. However, that doesnt excuse the fact that Panini seems to have pulled one over on everyone. Since we have not received confirmation from the owner that this was IN FACT a replacement, and not a pack pulled card, I am leaving it in the hands of Panini to clear the air. Yet, if we do get more confirmation, they are going to have some ‘splaining to do.

Here is the picture from the thread, all of these were replacements including the Rose 1/1 logo:

Its rare that a rookie achieves the kind of success that would dictate prices above the superstars in the game, regardless of sport. Every once in awhile, a rookie performs at such a ridiculous level, that their hobby value not only eclipses the stars of the game, but they eclipse the value of those superstar’s rookie cards. Blake Griffin is doing just that. Although he doesnt have the flash and flare of LeBron James, the numbers dont lie. The guy is having a ridiculous season, and collectors are literally falling all over themselves to pick up his high end rookies. Because of the exclusive Panini NBA license, examples of high end cards have been reduced to a TINY number, which has elevated values even higher. In fact, its gotten to the point where Griffin’s cards have become so expensive that they are almost unbuyable.

This situation is very similar to what happened to LeBron James when 03-04 Exquisite Basketball became the first ever super high end product. Because no other products existed in that price range back then, his rookies sky-rocketed to be one of the most expensive modern rookie cards of all time. Nice examples of his Exquisite Patch Auto RC /99 frequently bring in thousands upon thousands of dollars, final prices of Blake Griffen’s National Treasures Patch Auto RC are getting to that level.

Check out these auctions and their CRAZY prices:

National Treasures 3 Color Patch Auto

National Treasures 3 Color Patch Auto Gold /25

National Treasures 3 Color Patch Auto

National Treasures Logoman Auto

I dont often care about basketball, especially when most of my PC is football centric, but this is crazy! For these prices, you could have an autograph of almost anyone, signed on the most prestigious of items. Blake Griffin is more than good this year, but he has miles of accomplishments to achieve before he is worthy of these prices. If he does end up winning a few rings, is there even any prospect for growth in these cards? Its one thing if you are a Clippers fan (if they truly exist anymore, haha), but its completely different if you are looking to drop THIS kind of money when the prices are already THIS high.

I often cite that people love to get in on the penthouse floor rather than the ground, as they did with Strasburg and many other examples, and 9 times out of 10, it ends up in a terrible result. On the tenth time, the values may rise or fall in small percentages, but there is only one Michael Jordan, and there is only one Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Think about where the prices would be if he had the type of career that someone like Kobe Bryant has. He might be worth a lot more, but so far, there havent been many people who can boast a resume like Bryant’s. He also played on one of the best and most collected teams in history. Griffin, so far, has none of these, not even on the distant horizon. When the Clippers will always play second fiddle to the Lakers in LA, why do people think that these cards will end up being on that podium like Bryant’s would be in a similar situation?

The bottom line is that I can count the players worthy of these values on one hand, minus one finger. Its Kobe, Lebron, Jordan and that’s about it. Will Griffin end up there? Odds are he wont. Who will then be holding the cards when they shouldnt have bought in the first place? A lot of the same types of people who bought Strasburg over the course of the 2010 Baseball season.

When you look at the general composition of the buyback market, two words come to mind, both positive and negative. The first work is “scam,” as there are so many fake buybacks out there that many of them you see arent real. Scammers use the buybacks, especially those out of 2006 Bowman Originals baseball, as a way to pawn off their wares on unsuspecting people. The second word is “awesome,” as the real ones usually take either iconic or cool unsigned examples, and turn them into a sweet piece for any player or team collection.

Since the buyback was first inserted into sets, Upper Deck has used it as a great way to add some great content to their sets. For their 20th Anniversary, they had Ken Griffey Jr sign a few of his 1989 Upper Deck #1 with a “twenty years” inscription, that currently sits a top many Griffey collectors want lists. They also did it in a recent basketball release with some re-purchased Michael Jordan RCs that they had autographed. They had them signed by Jordan, and they are also some of the most sought after cards in recent basketball memory. In football, it rarely happens, with the exception of one ridiculously awesome set. Back in 2003 and 2004, Ultimate Collection football included an extensive buyback subset inserted into packs, and now that I have seen the results, I think we definitely need another version of it. Now that Upper Deck is without an NFL license, it may not be possible, but I am not familiar with how this works in terms of do’s and dont’s.

Here are some of the cards that are currently up on eBay:

Troy Aikman Ultimate Buyback Auto

Peyton Manning Ultimate Buyback Auto

Derrick Mason Ultimate Buyback Auto

John Elway Ultimate Buyback Auto

Jeff Garcia Ultimate Buyback Auto

Rod Gardner Ultimate Buyback Auto

Considering how many iconic cards Topps has released over the last few years, I would absolutely love to see a new Topps buyback set, this time with more focus on certificates of auth to avoid a lot of what has plagued their previous buyback sets in the past. How cool would it be to have a hard signed version of any of the Topps base cards from the top stars of the league? Topps’ base sets always look amazing, and I know I would love to purchase the examples from my favorite players. When you add in that almost 100% of Topps’ veteran autos have been on stickers for the last five years, this could get some new blood in the water and drive a secondary market that football has lost recently.

Panini already offers signed base cards in most of their sets, and though they are on stickers, they still exist. Plus, with foil being the stock of choice for many of the Panini sets, we know the results wouldnt be as cool. However, if they wanted to get some of the full game photo base cards from Threads signed without the foil, I would still be on board 100%.

The bottom line is that this needs to be done RIGHT, and that confidence is not something I would have right now. In fact, the buybacks done by UD over the last few years may be the last of the right type we may ever see again.

If you havent been in a place where you receive media coverage or internet connectivity, you may not know who is playing this weekend. If you are like me and NFL network is on 24/7 its gotten to the point of over-saturation, and that is why I am not surprised to see that collectors are going fucking nuts over the star players for each of the four teams. Even people you wouldnt expect to get a huge bump in value, are killing it like they are some ridiculous baseball prospect, and this my friends, is very good for the hobby.

This whole phenomenon is pretty easy to understand, I mean, each of these players is one game away from the Super Bowl, and two wins away from a ring. For guys like Ben Roethlisberger and a few of his teammates, this is a great opportunity to win back some of the fans he lost over the course of the last year, something that his collectors would very much like to see. For a guy like Aaron Rodgers, this is the new era of the Packers, and like Favre before him, he will need to prove himself on the biggest stage of them all. His fans have already made him one of the most valuable autographs in the league today, and a win tomorrow could make things even more crazy than they already are.

Check out some of the values of his recent autos. He is now taking in more per signature on eBay than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Although I dont think he has reached that level yet in the league, the values speak for themselves:

Aaron Rodgers SP Authentic 3 Color RC Patch Auto /99

Aaron Rodgers Bowman Chrome RC Auto Refractor BGS 9

Aaron Rodgers Contenders RC Auto BGS 9

When you also see that guys like Mark Sanchez, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace, Jay Cutler and Troy Polamalu are on fire solely because of their prospects of a ring, you get a good representation of why a playoff run is like hobby gold. Unlike Baseball or Basketball that have extended post seasons, the NFL is basically just three extra games and the super bowl. That hyper-extends the importance of each game and leads to auctions like these, where collectors just want a piece of the star guys:

Troy Polamalu Contenders RC Auto

Rashard Mendenhall SP Authentic RC Patch Auto

Mark Sanchez Contenders RC Auto 1/1

Mike Wallace SP Authentic RC Patch Auto

Jay Cutler SP Authentic Auto /99

Here are my predictions for the weekend and for the Super Bowl, even though it pains me to do so.

Green Bay vs Chicago

I cant believe that the Bears have made it this far, and I think the miracle run stops here. This is Aaron Rodgers’ year, and everyone else is just a bunch of extras. Bears go down as expected, setting up a great super bowl for Brett Favre’s replacement.

Winner: Green Bay (ugh!)

New York vs Pittsburgh

I didnt think it was possible for someone to beat the pats the way the Jets beat them, so I gotta think that Pittsburgh is going to have a VERY tough time staving off another New York win. As much as Rex Ryan bothers me, I have to think that the incredible momentum of last week’s game carries through this week too.

Winner: New York (LETS GO GET A GODDAMN SNACK!)

Green Bay vs New York

Funny how this Super Bowl can still have Favre written all over it, even though he is as far away from the game as he can get with the season he had. His two “replacements” are going to throw down, and I dont even think its a contest as to who has the better offense. But, when you compare the defenses, they are very similar in strength, and due to that fact, I have to go with the Packers to pull it out in a close one.

Winner: Green Bay