I have always put 2005 Absolute Tools of the Trade jumbo swatch cards as one of the most faked patch sets of all time. The ease in which patch fakers could remove the swatches from the cards, in addition to the size of the swatches and the players on the checklist, made it an easy and profitable target for fakers. Now that the 2008 NFL rookie class has had a lot of success on the field, 2008 SP Authentic may be entering into a time where it may be reaching this level.

You may wonder why 2008 SP Authentic is a more widely scammed set than 2008 Exquisite, and the reason is availability and price. The top rookies out of 2008 SP had more examples of their cards than 2008 Exquisite, as the top rookies in Exquisite had only 99 copies of their RPAs. Exquisites also present more of an upfront investment in the product, which means that you can expect that fakers would much rather gravitate towards the cheaper cards with the bigger prospect of gain. Funny enough, there are SO MANY fakes, that many of them are now in the hands of their third or fourth buyer. Bad all around.

I want to go into the biggest targets and what to look for so you can avoid the worst.

Matt Ryan

Matty Ice, as he is affectionately known, has had some major exposure in the limelight this year. It was due to the Falcons being the top seed in the NFC, and Ryan being a large contributor to their great record. Last year was also a very good year for him, and his rookie season wasn’t too shabby either. If you see parts of the Falcons logo or other logos that don’t seem right, don’t waste your time. Ryan is a huge target because of his success, don’t expect that someone wouldn’t destroy a four hundred dollar card just to make a buck.

Questionable and Fake Cards Currently Up For Sale or Sold Recently:

Patch Auto – Falcons Logo

Patch Auto – Reebok Logo

Patch Auto – Falcons Chest Logo

Joe Flacco

Flacco had a very good rookie season and a better sophomore season for a popular and widely collected team. His team also has one of the most faked logo patches in hobby history, which makes him an easy target for people to take advantage of the clueless. Ravens logo patches are so common that there isnt even a good idea out there of which are real, and the three colors are more suspect than ever. Basically if it is more than two color for Flacco, I would stay away. Unfortunate isnt it?

Questionable and Fake Cards Currently Up For Sale or Sold Recently:

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 2

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 3

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 4

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 5

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 6

Ray Rice

Like Flacco, Rice plays for a very popular Ravens team, but his popularity is more recent due to overwhelming success during the season. Rice’s cards were cheap to begin with, so there are a lot of them that were purchased during the initial release solely to be faked. Now that they are worth a lot more, the fakes are surfacing like insects, and with the card numbered to 999, there sure is a lot of ammo.

Questionable and Fake Cards Currently Up For Sale or Sold Recently:

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 2

Patch Auto – Ravens Sleeve Logo 3

Chris Johnson

CJ2K has a shitty ass signature, but his card is still worth a lot, especially with an “OMG SIZCKZ MOJOZZZZZ!” patch on it. The Titan’s sword logo, like the Ravens’ sleeve patch is always the biggest target, so don’t fall for it. Johnson’s cards still are safe up to a three color, but no logo should ever be purchased. Its not worth the risk. Because Johnson has emerged as one of the top backs in the league, its safe to say that this card will always carry value as long as this is still the case. Watch out.

Questionable and Fake Cards Currently Up For Sale or Sold Recently:

Patch Auto – 10th Anniversary Logo

Patch Auto – Titans Chest Logo

Gold Patch Auto – Titans Sword Logo

Outside of these, you rarely see any problem, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Stay ahead of the pack, and only buy ones you know are real. If you educate yourself on what to look for, you will have a much better time avoiding bad situations. Again, I am always here to help, and many message boards have experts at your disposal.

Opportunity cost is a big deal in this hobby, despite evidence showing that the latest and greatest product is always the most popular. Although said latest and greatest product is usually the most popular in the secondary market, it is also safe to say that many collectors look at the release calendar before dropping major coin on currently available product.

Actually, I am in a dilemma right now, as it is looking like Panini’s new Plates and Patches set is looking to be their best secondary market singles product of the year so far. As it stands, there are a few cards I would have no problem saying that I would be glad to have, and yet, I am having a hard time justifying purchase due to a few other things that are going to be happening.

First, Contenders is not far off. Although it bugs the fucking shit out of me that it is foil based for the autographs, its still a good set to look at for singles purchases. They are Panini’s first on card autographs in a long long time, and as long as they don’t turn out streaky and bubbly like I expect them to, I may consider looking into a few.

Secondly, like Contenders, National Treasures will be making a splash sooner rather than later. The set’s rookie patch autos are shaping up to be very cool with their hard signed signatures, and I know they will be expensive to collect. The other cards in the set look to be relatively run of the mill, so Im not going to spend much in that respect.

Lastly, there is the grandaddy of 2010, Topps Five Star that should come soon. Its been delayed a few times, which sucks, but thus is the nature of the beast with on card products. Guess what though? I will gladly bide my time until it is released, as the opportunity cost of spending my money now will greatly weigh on my ability to spend the money later on these OBVIOUSLY superior cards. Even if the box breaks suck, the singles are still going to be fucking rad (yes, they will be so cool that I used an 80s level adjective), and I want to be able to spend spend spend.

Even though Plates and Patches is looking good, is it really going to be THAT different from any other card you could buy this year? Not really. In fact, this is where opportunity cost should come into it for you too. Is buying that box of Plates and Patches a better buy than a box of 2009 SP Authentic/Ultimate Collection or 2008 NT or SPA? Hell, is spending 400 on a box of Five Star better than just buying an autographed football from ANYONE that is still alive? Those are the questions you should be asking yourself.

I posted last week about the Sam Bradford Superfractor “Sale but No Sale” on eBay, and how that price was a fix due to some outside interference. Well, his other cards, even those that come from lesser sets are absolutely going crazy with the news that he will most likely win the Rookie of the Year without competition. In all seriousness, his stuff has been nuts to begin with but when you see other 1/1s reaching ridiculous heights, you start to wonder where the fake bids end and the real ones start.

Look at this 1/1 Bowman Sterling Autograph and the absolutely crazy price it has been bid up to. Although this may be another false price due to someone not being truthful with their means to buy the card, it still bears mention that this is still a crap set that looks crappy in general. If this price is real (and considering the previous auction, it doesnt look to be), my question is less about who is the crazy person falsely bidding up all these cards, and more about who is actually crazy enough to buy a 1/1 for THAT much out of a product like Bowman Sterling. Not only was the design a piece of complete and utter donkey shit, but the card is one of about 8 1/1 Bradford examples from the set. Its like someone paying that much for one out of Triple Threads.

Next, this 1/1 Patch Auto out of Limited is also fetching a ton of money, and again I am baffled as to whether or not this is real. Usually when you see 41 bids, the doubt starts to creep in, but who knows? It could be real. Again, you have a crap looking card from a crappy product, and yet, this one of a million parallels is worth THAT much to someone? Yeah, even if I had the money, why not wait for a much better one to come along? Hell, I bet the REAL Superfractor will be up again soon. I mean, there isnt even any differentiation between the base and the 1/1 other than the number on the back!

You can also see by some of these auctions that these prices may be closer to real than fake, especially when the normal non-Panini clone cards are going for huge final prices. Check it out:

Sam Bradford Chrome Gold Refractor Auto BGS 10

Sam Bradford SPX Nike Logo 1/1 Auto

Sam Bradford Topps Chrome UGLY AS HELL Patch Auto /25

Sam Bradford Bowman Chrome Auto BGS 9.5

When Bradford’s career is over, will he honestly be worth that kind of price? Im going to say that this is probably the near  the ceiling, even if he goes on to be a great QB.  Its actually more likely that he is going to turn out to be Eli Manning rather than Peyton Manning in terms of hobby value, and that is why I am so skeptical about this. I dont know, maybe Im just not seeing the writing on the wall like I used to, but I cant help but feel sorry for the people who equate prospecting in football to prospecting in baseball. Not that this would even be considered close to a buy low sell high scenario in any sport.

When Plates and Patches was first announced, my first reaction was “oh great, a complete set based on an insert set out of a terrible product.” After that, I prepared myself for another Limited style packout with similarly incomplete single jersey cards that take away from the overall quality of the product. After seeing the preview posted today on Panini’s blog, Im actually kind of surprised as to how much it looks good, at least from the best of the best they always post. Actually, Panini has done something that impresses me outside of the design itself, something Ill get to in a minute.

First, the design and composition of the cards themselves. Other than the fact that this is ANOTHER sticker product from Panini, the cards displayed dont look all that horrible. Even the vertical patch auto cards that we see here look okay considering what they are, and the rookies that we get look to be the best we have seen all year from Panini. I think these cards greatly benefit from two things – no foil, and a great layout with great use of white space for the signature. These are some of the first cards from Panini this year that look like they were were considering sticker placement on a space that will make things pop out, though I can see that these are just one of the many parallels of these cards. If you can imagine the absence of the stickers, the other parallels without will look incomplete as they usually do. As for the cuts, this Unitas looks bad ass. The pictures on the cards seem to be back in full force, and I could not be happier to say good bye to unidentifiable ones from past products.

Secondly, I see that there are going to be a bunch of problems with price point, as the one good hit is going to have problems holding the box value if so many of them are of the likes of Mardy Gilyard, Armanti Edwards, and Marcus Easley. I think there is definitely some great singles potential for this product, but there is NOT A CHANCE IN HELL that I would ever buy a box of this straight up for myself.

Lastly, I want to talk about two measures that Panini took on Plates and Patches that may actually make up for the stupid ass name for the product. First, this looks to be structured like Prime Cuts and Century Collection where the main box hit is encased. Encasement is a great tool to combat fakes, which will no doubt would be a huge problem on some of these jumbo patch cards without security precautions. If you also notice the top corner of the cards, they explain the part of the jersey the patch comes from. That means, as far as we can tell, many of the big hits will have text on the card labelling them as such. THIS IS AN EPIC WIN ALL AROUND. Finally someone is getting the fucking point, and I am ecstatic about this being the case.

Here is the first part of the Plates and Patches preview, the second will likely come tomorrow:

Over the last few weeks, I have gotten a lot of emails on a seller who is wreaking havoc on eBay selling fake autographs on cheap base cards, more than 100 at a time in some cases. Its obvious the signatures are fake to a point where not even the most clueless person would bid on them, but that doesnt excuse the practice of fraud itself. Oddly enough, when it comes to fake autographs, its rare that someone can actually produce a believable fake of this sort, and yet, you see these types of sellers testing the waters none-the-less. Even though this type of douchebaggery is easily identified, it still bears mention here.

Here are some examples of the cards this idiot is selling, check out how bad some of these are:

Adrian Peterson Signed Upper Deck Card

Reggie Bush Signed Upper Deck Card

Tom Brady Signed Topps Card

Vince Young Signed Upper Deck Card

Hank Aaron Signed Card

Brett Favre Signed Topps Card

Pretty bad, right?

The bottom line is that many collectors have huge collections of signed cards that they have obtained through the mail, and it is not a far stretch of the mind to understand that people bid on these cards thinking that this is exactly the case. In the end, it comes down to the education of the collecting base itself, and that is where a lot of us are failing to measure up.

I would think that a great solution would be a free database of displayed signatures known to be authentic, with displayed points of what to look for to prevent buying fakes. It would take a lot of time, but at the end of the day you can easily educated people to avoid cards and sellers like this.