Its rare that something suprises me these days, and that is more a testament to how the industry approaches the hobby than anything. Even though we have had the relase of video cards, shadow box cards, etc, there hasn’t been a truly amazing innovation since the proliferation of game used cards back in the mid nineties. Instead, the industry relies on crutches like over-paralleling their sets and serially numbering anything that has cardboard as the stock. In fact, its gotten so bad that I am soon expecting the cardboard decoys to have serial numbers on them.

Because we are in the midst of an era where even the checklists have parallels, rarity has become a non-issue for determining value except for very specific cases. Panini has become notorious for numbering EVERYTHING, and Topps hasn’t been much better as you have all seen. The common misconception is that contrived scarcity will drive value more than anything, that as long as you number it low, people will want it regardless of what is actually contained on the front (or back) of the card. This is a completely asinine idea, especially when cards numbered 1/1 can be purchased for close to nothing.

It has become so bad, that numbering almost doesn’t factor into the equation anymore – AT ALL. I can easily purchase an Adrian Peterson autograph out of 50 for the same price as one out of 10, mainly because it has become more about the autograph than the number on the right side of the foil slash. You may say that its obvious that Exquisite and SP Authentic gold patch autos sell for more than their normal counterparts, but is that a reflection of set construction rather than numbering? If the gold cards didn’t have serial numbers, Im pretty sure they would still be worth more, because the idea of parallel rarity takes over without the foil stamping.

The problem is that there are numerous sets like Topps Triple Threads, where there are thousands of low numbered cards, and more 1/1s than you can count. This situation is not a good one, because instead of working towards building better cards, they just number the cards lower and lower. As I said above, its become a crutch to rest the value of a set on, but as we have seen lately, it rarely works.

I constantly talk about design being the only aspect that everyone can appreciate, and yet we continue to see cookie cutter product after cookie cutter product hit the market. My detractors say that as long as it sells, it wont make a difference, but I say, how long until it stops selling? Many of the brightest business minds in the world say that the biggest enemy of “progress” is “maintenance” and so far, even maintenance is a stretch. That goes double for Panini’s brand of 4 hits, 2 jerseys and a 90 dollar price tag, all wrapped up nicely in a shitty looking design concept. I have already seen the tides start to change, both on the internet where everyone’s a critic, and in the shops, where no one is. Eventually, even the casual collectors will get bored, and then it will be too late.

If you look back over the sets that were successful, very few of them relied on anything but great looking cards. You may say beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but RELATIVE universal beauty is possible when the effort is put in. You can see this in many of the products that sell beyond their MSRP, and that it is more about the content of the card than the serial number on the back.

Lou Holtz is famous for saying “Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it,” and that is where I challenge the card companies to react to this situation. On card autos are great, but they are only part of the work, especially when so many cards produced make my eyes burn. Brand loyalty is built on delivering above expectations year after year, and those expectations are depending less and less by how many serially numbered cards someone can pull out of a box. People may not understand why I love Topps Flagship and Topps Chrome so much when I am a high end collector, but this is why. The design over delivers in terms of simplistic beauty, the serial numbered cards are valuable because there arent many of them, the parallel structure is simple and easy to follow, its always that way.

I hope that over the next few years, something changes, because otherwise, the industry is going to be in trouble. I already see the seeds of destruction growing at rapid rates, as the stench of desperation often permiates the products that hit shelves. Regardless of the way things are now, its easy to change your ways to get back on track. “Reroute to Remain” if you will.

Here is what I would do if I were the companies (my 3×3 plan):

1. Pick THREE products that will be the same general concept year to year. Cuts of some long running products will need to happen, but lets be honest, not every long running brand should be a long running brand. I would guess the majority of these products should be lower end.
2. Pick THREE products that bring something new and innovative each year. Not saying every product needs to be a mini helmet in a box with some cards, just something other than what is currently on the shelves. These need to be re-developed with new brand recognition each year, because otherwise this plan wont work.
3. Pick THREE high end products that cost more than 100 bucks a box and make them that much more special. On card autos, new never before seen production methods, larger than life content.

That’s nine products to blow out of the water, more than enough. I have never been one to say that less is better, as I have always stood FOR variety and AGAINST history’s four products per year, but this is necessary to get back on track. 9 products per company is MORE than enough.

I speak of brand loyalty as a huge factor in success, because we all know why Topps flagship outsells the competition. Its not because it has more autos per box or more serially numbered cards. Its because for the last 50 years, it has never come up short. This 3×3 plan gives the companies six spaces to build that loyalty and I would hope that they could make that happen when you are only focusing on nine products per year instead of 12 or 15.

Remember, this was all written off the top of my head in sitting at my computer for 15 minutes. Its called brainstorming, and it may actually seem like it has more holes than fills for existing ones. But that is what I am saying. Right now, no one thinks, they just turn the foil stamper to a lower number. Its not going to work anymore. Get around your conference tables, get FOX news out of your building and DO WHAT WE EXPECT YOU TO DO. No, scratch that.

Do MORE than we expect you to do.