I have never been a supporter of graded cards. If you go back through the 10 years of this site, you will see my anger grow with each passing year and each new business tactic the companies use. I have never seen the real reason why people put so much stock in such a subjective process, even more so now with “Black Label” cards commanding such a premium. One could say “the market has spoken,” which is abundantly true. I know my measly site is not going to turn around a tidal wave of people who spend their days pouring over listings looking for the “best” versions of the cards they want. That doesnt mean Im avoiding the discussion either. Hyper mint graded slabs as a premium example of any given card should never be a thing. I want to detail why I see this as a huge problem and not something we should continue to support.

Background

Grading came about for a number of reasons in my opinion, and I always come back to this every time I post about my feelings here. Back when the majority of single card sales shifted from in person to absentee, there was a requirement to understand what you were buying before you bought it. With digital camera technology miles away from where it is now, photos of cards sold via the early days of eBay and the internet were of much lesser quality than they are now. More importantly, without the technology to examine something super closely without actually being there, it became necessary to set up a way to know what to expect without holding the card for sale in your hands. This is important for both reviewing condition and authenticity. It also takes away accountability from shop owners and online sellers whose opinions of card condition was driving sale prices.

Much of that has changed with 1000000 megapixel cameras in use these days, many of which are being carried in our pockets. That’s not saying the service of condition grading isnt helpful, but the way that BGS and PSA continue to market things, a card being mint is no longer enough to achieve the top value available. That’s where my issue lies in part. Its no longer about giving a grade based on easily identifiable standards, its more about baiting collectors into chasing hyper mint grades that seem to be based on microscopic differences in card quality.

Conflicts of Interest

Im going to cover two problems with grading, both of which should be very important in considering why this business should not be held with the level of certainty that it currently is. The first is the conflict of interest present in the concept of this model, and the second is the subjective nature of the grades themselves in a hyper mint environment.

As mentioned above, BGS and PSA dont do this for free. In fact, it can be quite expensive to grade cards. That means that they are required to attract new and existing business from the pool of market customers. Because there is no regulatory body other than the company’s reputation, and humans complete the process, it can be manipulated to ensure more customers continue to submit their cards for grading.

Lets put it this way. Lets say you have a customer who wants to grade 1000 cards. They have a choice on who they want to use. They likely have a preferred vendor that is preferred because of two things – price and results. Price is standard to a point, and is very easy to change to accommodate big orders. That’s not something that should come as a surprise, nor does it really undermine the whole trust of the process. The second part, results, can be much different.

Because of the subjectivity of the hyper mint grades, there is a conflict of interest present in providing better treatment to individuals who spend the most money. Although you arent going to bump an 8 to a 9.5, bumping a few 9s to 9.5s or 9.5s to 10s is a very good way to ensure repeat business. Again, im not saying this happens all the time, but the conflict of interest is still very present.

All that im saying is that this conflict is a very real challenge to the integrity of the process, and from what graded collectors have told me, has contributed significantly to how they value one company’s grades over another.

Subjectivity Conflicts

This is where the meat of my problem with the business comes from. It literally drives me fucking nuts when a collector pays something like 100x value for a card just because it has a hyper mint grade on it. It drives me insane, because we are literally talking about microscopic differences in most cases, which prevents a true accountability for the results everyone achieves.

Each grade is derived from a human examining the card. Each human employed theoretically has a different viewpoint, even in the interpretation of the outlined rules. Because grades from Gem Mint to Pristine to Black Label dont offer a truly visible difference to the naked eye in most cases, it allows for some wiggle room in how the hyper mint grades are achieved. Although the grading companies stand by their results, and cite their reputation, the subjectivity is enough to create a culture of collectors who take “under graded” cards, crack them out of the cases, and resubmit them. This happens so frequently that you can actually see it happening real time in the slab population reports of results publicly available. Mixing this culture with the practice of creating scarcity through serially numbering cards, you can actually see cards with 10 copies that have been graded as many as 20 times.

Lets take this a step in the other direction as well. Because of the subjective nature of the process, “over graded” cards are rarely justified in their grade. No one is going to take a black label and crack it, just to verify that the grade is legit. Once a card reaches a hyper mint result, the process is almost 100% done. The bible for that card now exists, and there is no reason to question it on the seller side or the buyer side.

Its also very clear that BGS and PSA built their grading business to scale easily. This includes on site reviews at major shows and events, as well as expedited grading times to ensure a quick turn around. What this also means is that no information is likely available past what is published on the slab itself. Its not like a collector who has received a very bad or a very good grade will ever get a report of why the grade is what it is. If my card that I believe should get a 9.5 comes back a 9, I have nothing to reference that explains why my card got the result it did. This sheds more accountability on the behalf of the grading company, and adds more fervor to the refrain that getting a hyper mint grade is as much luck as it is actual condition. Combining this with the conflict of interest that exists, my disgust over collector acceptance becomes very much engaged.

What is Grading Actually Good For?

Honestly, grading does have a few pluses, and they shouldnt go without saying. The first is that authenticity is still very much a worthwhile service that the company provides. Many counterfeits exist, and I actually believe the people who staff the grading companies do have a better handle on the methods than the average collector. Sure experts exist elsewhere, but not in a large enough quantity to avoid this service’s worth.

Similarly, since the beginning of condition based value in collecting, there have been people who have tried to find an edge. This includes trimming edges and corners to ensure a better “condition” and other things like that. Most of the time, this is easily snuffed out by the grading companies, and is a very good thing to have in place.

Lastly, some people like the protection the slabs provide for their cards. As someone who hates the look of most graded cards, I dont subscribe, but others very much do. I have seen people literally put a graded card in boiling water and not see any damage.

What is a better way?

From my point of view, building a scale of 1-10 that has VERY clear markers, no half grades, and focuses on easily identifiable flaws to downgrade a card’s condition is what I am looking for. If a card is an 8 I want to see clearly why it is an 8. If a card is a 10, or Mint, it should be clearly a 10. There is zero reason to go above Mint Condition, as that is how all of these other problems exist. Transparency in the product should be clear or it needs to be regulated by some disinterested third party.

Obviously, this presents a business model that the grading companies wont be able to stomach. It creates an environment where they no longer have as much influence, and no longer set themselves as the main determining body of card condition above and beyond mint.

I want to affirm that im not upset that grading exists, as there are bodies in almost every hobby that do the same thing. Where my anger lies is in the business side of this venture. Making money is going to be more important to the companies than their customers, or even their reputation in some cases. Im not sure how many people actually understand the implications of what that means to the integrity of their cards.

I get it, card collectors are a group built on vanity. We want to have the best collection, the best card, and now the best version of that card anyone can have. The grading companies have played and preyed on that desire, and here we are. Hopefully, people start to wise up and understand that all may not be what it seems.

This is the best time of year for high end football collectors. Not only is the NFL draft about a month away, but its the time of year when Panini is going to typically bring out their two biggest sets in National Treasures and Flawless. Although I am someone who thinks this would be a much better break around Super Bowl Sunday, this is what we all wait for every year. With sets like Optic Contenders also making waves, it feels like this year is really going to close on a high note.

Check out some of these cards:

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Alvin Kamara Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Dalvin Cook Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Leonard Fournette Booklet Patch Auto /99

2017 National Treasures Drew Brees Auto Patch /25

First off the line boxes started arriving on Friday for those lucky few that got to them, and so far, it looks like this is one of those configurations that is working well. Other FOTL boxes have fallen flat with watered down configurations and not much response from collectors on the exclusive cards. This feels different. The stars and stripes version of the Rookie Patch Autos are great looking, and more importantly, its been tough to find ones that dont have incredible patches in them. It helps that this year’s design is among the better ones I have seen in the last few years, coupled with an Acetate finish that is really good looking.

As for the rest of the set, we are seeing the typical stuff out of NT that comes every year. Booklets, patches, and tons of content, alongside another year of stickers, single jerseys and junk that I still cringe over every time this set comes out. National Treasures suffers from too much content, and since the format shifted to 9-10 cards per pack, 4 of the hits have been relative shit that seems to increase price of the box but adds nothing to the configuration.

Watching the first off the line boxes has been interesting, because some of them are so good and others are just that bad. Having a case with 4 RPAs though is worth the price of admission, especially when other cases of the regular product may only have one or two. The rest of the product looks good, save the jersey cards and other content on the periphery, something that has always been the bane of NT’s existence. Curious to see how much non-rookie on card content is included this year, as it seemed very sticker heavy. I cant even put into words how frustrating that is, especially when we see how beautiful a set like Impeccable is.

We need more hard signed content in a box that costs this much, maybe reserving the stickers for the scrub autos that are never on card. The addition of more non-rookie player worn material doesnt help either, because if a set is going to be game worn, it needs to be this one. I can harp on this all I want, but the fact of the matter is that it almost is worthless to argue. Collectors dont seem to care enough, and that is beyond sad. Panini is also likely limited in their ability to continue getting game used content at a cheap price, but some sets should never face that dilemma. NT has to be the best of the best, and that means player worn non-rookie content should be as limited as stickers should be. I would even go so far as saying Panini has found a way to make a relic version of stickers, changing out game used content for player worn more and more this year. Its true that this content isnt as cheap as it used to be, but that’s where sets like Donruss and Certified Cuts need to be the trash can for the player worn garbage.

Overall, this set continues to be much better after really falling on its face prior to 2013, regardless of how much the cards are worth. Cards like Watson and Mahomes could crack a grand per pull, and that’s an accomplishment in itself. Football just isnt generating the blockbuster stuff like baseball and basketball, and its good to see collectors latching onto the rookies with potential. Lets hope Flawless continues down this path.

I havent had a lot of time lately to update my site, as having a baby at home combined with a crazy work / life balance issue doesnt translate well to blogging. That being said, this product release has been quite intriguing.

Going back to 2016, Encased was a fucking dumpster fire in my opinion. Ugly cards, goofy posed photos everywhere, and a crazy expensive box price was horrendous. Yet, much like we see Panini do on a regular basis, they brought it back. Much to my surprise, the product has improved significantly, not because the posed photos are gone, but because Panini seems to be making this a product driven by inscriptions.

Check out some of the bigger cards:

2017 Panini Encased Patrick Mahomes Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Alvin Kamara Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Mitchell Trubisky Cap Patch Auto BGS 9

2017 Panini Encased Leonard Fournette Dual Relic Auto BGS 9.5

It really begs the ultimate question. Can something like unique autograph content deliver a reason to open a product that I would normally stay FAAAAAR away from?

To a degree the answer is yes, because I think inscriptions are still special enough that it can bring some additional reasons to rip through boxes you wouldnt normally rip through. Even though the photos are still so, so, so fucking bad, they really speak to the side of me that may forgive them somewhat for choosing that direction.

Considering that each rookie can sign almost 30,000 autographs a year, its time to spend some of that time delivering autograph content that isnt the norm. Because players dont always know what to do when asked for inscriptions, it can be very difficult to generate this type of content. That’s why, when done well, its super special. Its also a reason why Panini shouldnt waste the concept on a set like Encased, especially considering how important it is for them to continue to keep the idea sacred enough to generate value above and beyond.

At some point, I hope that a premium release like this morphs to showcase some great looking cards that also use inscriptions as the primary vehicle to deliver autographs (as best as can be done with the players). More importantly, try to move away from graded box hits, as so many of the grades did not deliver gem or even mint grades across the product. Because cards are thick stock and signed on card, players’ handling them to sign the autographs almost ensures that grades wont be where they need to be. Although I understand the concept, I find it to be overkill against a set that really could benefit from extra cost generated through grading being delivered into the content instead.

There is a LOT of potential in Encased, but it was fucking wasted in 2016, and borderline lost in 2017. So much could be done to make this a keystone product for Panini, and instead its a forgotten release that seems to get lost among the super premium space that invades the NFL offseason.

Back in the 1990s, before smart phones, before XBOX, before anything like we know today, collecting cards were popular with kids. If that seems like ancient history, its because it is ancient history, but that doesnt stop people from literally tearing off this scab year after year after year. Its the one discussion that no one seems to want to close, and the one effort that no one wants to give up.

The notion of bringing that mass of kids back to the hobby isnt new, but the methods in which the card companies think it is possible dont seem to be either. Despite some great new tools and technology, all of which would be prime real estate to market a certain way, the card companies seem to trot out the same tired ideas with the understanding that it might accomplish the goal that hasnt been accomplished for over 20 years.

Over the weekend, Topps announced a new baseball set called “Big League,” whose sell sheet featured the tag line “Kids have spoken and Topps has listened.” Besides being just another cheap product, the tagline is so infuriating, I dont know what to say. Basically, one side of the argument is that bringing kids back will bring back a ton of money that has since left the hobby. Another side believes that bringing kids back will stave off the death of the industry itself, with new blood eventually growing up and becoming the future market the hobby needs to survive. Some believe both. I believe all of these arguments are valid, but also too expensive and worthless to try to execute. As a father of kids who make up the target market for products like Big League, I can almost certainly laugh at the approach.

First, my son loves opening packs. He likes baseball cards, he likes football cards, and he LOVES Pokemon cards. He likes the thrill of the unknown and pulling something that seems valuable. He also hates “kid products” because he knows there is rarely anything worth while in a pack of those cards. He wants to open the stuff I open, get the same shot at autographs that I do. His friends that he plays with are exactly the same way. I even took a group of them to the hobby shop and let them all pick out some packs for my son’s birthday. Guess what? None of them chose products like Big League will be – unless something fundamentally changes between what was discussed in the sell sheet and what hits the shelves.

The reason is that kids hate being pandered to. They want to feel like they are adults, even though the sentiment is likely the opposite for adults that open packs. Adults want to reclaim youth, and for many adults, that includes opening packs of baseball cards.

Personally, Big League feels like Topps is paying off a ransom demanded by either the league or by the retail marketing arms of Target and Wal Mart. Retail SKUs are so important to a product like this, not because so many of the people buying packs are kids, but because it provides access to a market that might be 1000 times the size of any local hobby shop. Maybe even 10000 times.

Putting cards in the aisles means access, and im sure that retail giants still believe that kids are inherently a target market for cards, just like they were 20 years ago. Excell marketing probably doesnt argue, despite the fact that so many of the consumers are adults.

Regardless of this approach, the product doesnt really go a direction that is that much different than other products occupying the same space. If that is the situation, what makes anyone believe this approach is better than any of the other products.

Well, any of the other products save two. There have been two products that could have taken a VASTLY different road to the same goal, a road that should have been MUCH more successful than it was. Those products were Topps Bunt and Topps Star Wars Card Trader. Both products were physical digital crossover sets that could have exploited the one thing that was never available back in the 1990s when everything started to go to shit – 24 hour access to a game that uses cards as a main driver of entertainment.

There are a number of things that my sons find entertainment in over ripping packs of cards – their iPad. Not only do they spend more time on the iPad than watching TV, but they absolutely love it. Providing access to cards through their digital appetite is something that should be at the front of any strategy that looks to reclaim children’s small attention span.

Instead, Bunt was left to rot on the vine, with the digital team taking very little interest in driving exclusive content only available in packs of the physical product. At least, from my perspective, that’s what it felt like. Im sure they saw it as a burden, trying to help the physical team gain access to their massive user base, instead of a true gateway for children to buy cheap packs and get direct content delivered through their phones at the same time.

Topps could have built a giant campaign around it, doing the things that they have tried over and over again with cheap and terrible products that never offered anything more than a more inexpensive price tag. It comes down to a very simple concept – why are you trying to capture a market through a method that none of them use? Its like trying to sell people cable subscription packages at a cord cutters convention. Not a great approach.

Digital is the answer, but at that same time, the apps havent exactly been kid friendly lately either. Most of the digital apps from any of the companies realized pretty quickly that they had to sell a lot of content to people with actual money to stay funded by companies with no experience building video games. That’s entirely the wrong approach, as we have seen with how Pokemon incorporates a digital element to all of their apps and games.

Im not saying Big League wont be a fun product. It looks good. Im just saying it wont do anything like what it is supposed to do. Its not because kids dont like cards when they are exposed to them, its that the way to capture kids isnt through offerings built around the same set configuration, just less expensive.

Right now, its better to invest in adults with money, as it is less expensive to execute and seems to be more accessible through adults and their die hard fandom surrounding their favorite sports teams. Kids dont experience sports like that unless they have parents that do, and just like cards, adults who collect should bring in more kids that collect.

I just hope that down the road people stop acting like Helen Lovejoy and wondering why people wont think of the children. I want the companies to spend money investing in things that might actually make a difference. A well funded and well executed digital strategy is that answer, and if Topps or Panini could help both the leagues and the mass retailers understand how important that is, I think my refrain would be different.

A number of years ago, Panini made a decision. They determined it was better to model their calendar after Topps’ major success in football, then to reinvent the wheel. To do so, they mapped out all of the chrome based products Topps had brought to the market, and created brands that would be the Panini equivalent. For Chrome, Prizm became their brand, and for many years was unable to measure up to the juggernaut that ran the football hobby attention span. For Bowman Sterling, Panini built Spectra, which was identical in configuration, but offered on card autos (at least before the bastardized version we get today). Lastly was Topps Finest, upon which they created Select, a set that has actually been pretty nice since its inception.

Here are some of the bigger hits up so far:

2017 Select Deshaun Watson Tag Patch Auto 1/1

2017 Select Mitchell Trubisky Jumbo Patch Auto Tie Dye /10

2017 Select Carson Wentz Patch Auto Emerald /5

2017 Select Dalvin Cook Jumbo Prime Patch Auto Logo /5

2017 Select Jerome Bettis Emerald Die Cut Auto /5

To this day, all three products have found it very difficult to reclaim the collector loyalty that was rock solid with the Topps versions of these products. Although all three have really taken on a brand of their own, somewhat thanks to Basketball, the original concept remains – replacements for fan favorite Topps products. Select is really the one I appreciate the most, even though Prizm has been very good as well. It removes a lot of the weird elements of Finest, and replaces it with some very good looking cards. Adding in the XRC concept has breathed new life into the brand, and now makes it one of my favorite boxes to open.

The only problem with Select is the same problem that finest faced before its last year in 2015. Boxes are supremely unpredictable. This year’s product seems to have an even larger problem with this, as collation seems to have been done so that a few boxes per case have all the nicer hits. Finest struggled because 7 boxes out of 10 had nothing in them, and though this is MUCH better with veteran and rookie content combined, the collation presents huge problems for people busting a box here and there.

Either way, Chrome based products still have the advantage of value present in non “box hit” content, and Select takes that to a level that even Prizm cant touch. Additionally with more added numbered content, the serially stamped parallels for rookies are worth diving into any of the boxes in the case, not just the 5 with all the major hits.

Moving onto the XRCs, Panini made the great decision to add rare autographed parallels of the players in the set. People are speculating that the number of the XRC autograph is the draft pick number, but I can almost guarantee that wont be the case. Regardless of who is on the card, these XRCs make the product that much better and I wish that this concept was used more frequently. Obviously the cost of issuing THOUSANDS of redemptions on purpose is likely too high to make it a widespread program, but I would love to see it more.

Lastly, this Topps-less atmosphere is still without oxygen, especially as we become further removed from Chrome and the like. Select helps a little bit, but not enough for me to forgive the bitterness still left behind by the removal of the most popular products in football.