Its Bowman release day, which means that baseball collectors all over the world are busy mining for OhtaniCoin all day. With his hot start, and his historical significance of playing both Pitcher and DH, it becomes a very interesting decision of how some people are going to want to approach this year’s product.

Check out these initial listings, they are not for the feint of heart:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – No way this gets paid for, but still fun to see

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – Example 2 – Again, kinda crazy to see, but not realistic

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Blue Auto RC /150 – Not realistic. More crazy than the others.

Here are the ones that look more appropriate:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC – Example 2

I dont think that the question is whether or not spending the money is worth it. We have come to understand that 9/10 times things dont end up finishing the way they started. Pitchers are especially challenging, as we know that when (not if) Tommy John happens, some players are never the same. Ohtani is a bit different because of his hitting skills, and Im actually curious to see if the Angels keep him on the mound.

That being said, prospecting players at the top of the mountain is a VERY dangerous game. I think that the majority of the hobby fails to understand that prospecting rarely even plays in the space that most people expect it to. More importantly, using cards as an investment is a horrible idea, especially when you see what real investments can do when understanding the market is a talent of an individual.

Ever since Albert Pujols, the prospecting game has become a way of life for many people, some well before that. Albert Pujols was the first of the modern day prospect big boys, and it has been a chase to find the next momentous player ever since. Funny enough, the Bowman era encompasses a number of future hall of famers, but only a handful have really been blockbusters.

That begs the most important question here – should we really be buying Ohtani at anything above comparable value? Lets use Clayton Kershaw as a good example of the best of the best, because he definitely fits the bill. Not only that, but his Bowman cards are among the most valuable for any pitcher in the modern era. That includes Strasburg, whose original hype was very similar in nature to this year.

Lets say Ohtani base autos settle in around 2-3 thousand, if not lower. That puts him in line with where a nice graded example of a Kershaw might land with the right situation. Kershaw is widely regarded as one of, if not THE best, pitcher in the league. Not only that, but he has done it for a number of years, on a popular team, and doesnt show any signs of slowing down.

Its worth mentioning that Ohtani’s international fans will inflate value artificially, just because of what always ends up happening with a limited crop of players and even fewer ones that are truly good. Factoring that in, what does Ohtani have to do for him to remain at Kershaw levels? Quite a bit from a comparative records type of situation. Kershaw has multiple Cy Youngs, an MVP (AS A PITCHER!), and some advanced stats that make his 2.36 career ERA look even better.

Comparatively, that’s a tough pair of shoes to fill. Hype trains have a way of keeping people on board with high values long after they deserve it, so that could also be a factor. I mean, how long has Andrew Luck had crazy numbers in football, despite a down 2 or 3 years? People just love hype. Look at Stanton, look at Judge, look at all the guys who have celebrity above and beyond their playing accomplishments.

Lets look at hitting too, as Ohtani might end up being great there too. Hitting and pitching combined is where we could reach Ichiro levels of extended value, combining the international crowd with the hype and extended playing results. Ichiro never had Bowman cards because of a UD exclusive, but if he did, they would likely be pretty hardcore in terms of value.

Again, the problem is, Ichiro may go down as one of the best pure hitters of all time, along with a tremendous fielding career to match. I doubt anyone will reach that level for decades if ever, and like Kershaw, they are big shoes to fill.

So, lets say he is somewhere in the middle, combining both talents – just how hard is that to do? It hasnt been done really, since the pre-war era. That’s what people are buying into, but they are also expecting that he reaches even a portion of the potential he has been playing to. Pretty big risk for such a high amount of cash.

That’s why many veteran prospectors arent touching players like this. Players that start of out of the gate as a fucking meteor, and tend to cool off from there. Funny enough, last year’s hype with Aaron Judge may have been a great example of where things can get truly crazy. Judge was pretty inexpensive for a few years as he made his way through the Yankees’ system. When he got up to the big leagues, and started mashing, his base Bowman autos soared. Collectors that were in at 25-50 a card, now had 1000 plus on their hands. Some were just lucky Yankees fans, others were prospectors who were sitting on potential unrecognized.

Ohtani just doesnt fit that model, and really isnt even in the same area code as any real prospect since Strasburg or Harper. Although Harper has developed into a superstar, Strasburg ended up falling well short of expectations due to injury early on in his career.

I understand that for people that have the money and are Angels fans, its hard to stay away. I would be very much in that bucket, for sure. I always post stuff like this when the train gets rolling, but that wont stop anyone from busting boxes at exorbitant prices to chase down the cards. Now with Group Breakers in the mix as well, all of a sudden, it becomes much easier to feed the beast.

Topps has actually gotten extremely lucky with so many huge prospect players back to back, and that is VERY good for the hobby. VERY good. Im not complaining one bit about that. The more we have of stuff like this, the better it is. A rising tide floats all boats. Im just curious to see how many people who are going to spend the thousands actually understand the humongous risk that comparative value is showing to be present.