As I have mentioned before, Prizm is a whole new world of craziness for most Wrestling collectors who have lived inside the hobby bubble. For many of them, the first major shock was the price of wax, followed quickly by the mind blowing prices for the top tier rare and desirable cards. With that consideration in play, it has led people to take some enormous risks on Wax, and in turn even more risks in trying to recoup costs.
Some of this has led to some quick softening of values from the lower end examples in the product, but also a borderline revolt from a contingent of people who feel like Panini has ruined Wrestling cards. Lets start by saying that there are still 4-5 more years of Prizm to come, and nothing that happens on the secondary market is really going to impact any of that fact’s truth. Panini is here to stay, and it serves everyone to better understand how to operate and still have fun, rather than complain constantly.
This leads to one of the larger questions that most collectors will struggle to work with – can you exist in this new world order without ripping wax? Let’s dive a bit deeper into the pros and cons, as well as the best ways to engage without losing your ass.
A Game of High Stakes Gambling?
Over and over, Ive said that Panini wax is usually very top heavy and those tentpoles hold up the enormous prices that the wax usually sells for. If you can pull five figure cards in the product, the wax price will be a reflection of that value, not the likelihood of actually pulling one of those cards. What this represents is the hobby equivalent of a lottery ticket. Sure, you can hit the jackpot, but it is FAAAAR more likely that you will lose what you put in. The good thing is that there are a number of ways to come out ahead outside of just hitting a big card, but that is outweighed by an overwhelming chance that you will get a fraction of value back within your box.
There are two ways that collectors mitigate this risk. The most common is by using groups to shoulder the gigantic cost of buying into a box or a case, rather than just an individual. Instead of one person forking over four figures to get a box, a group of people can all take their part in a number of ways. Whether that means buying access to serial number, a group of wrestlers, or even a letter corresponding to their names. Because more people are buying together, the cost of the ante is lower, thus reducing the recovery costs needed to break even. Problem is, it does make the odds significantly higher that you will hit that big card.
The second way is to rip a bunch at a time. Although the odds dont really shift box to box, opening cases and getting more chances versus hoping lightning strikes on a single box is a very common strategy. This does give the buyer more POTENTIAL opportunities, but the percentage of loss increases with each box or case added to the pile. This is the hobby’s equivalent of the gambler’s fallacy, and I can guarantee that too many people have found themselves in dire straits as a result.
Overall, wax is absolutely a gamble. In this case, its likely one of the biggest gamble in the history of wrestling cards. Although there are more four and five figure cards in this product than any other product that has ever been released, the price reflects that situation. If you are a wrestling collector looking for cheap thrills like before, there are a ton of ways to get that, but opening your own personal box of Prizm is likely the worst engagement opportunity there is.
Understanding the Record Prices and the Low End Bottoming Out
Prizm is a tale of two cities. One side is the record setting values that the rare and desirable cards have on the secondary market, and the other side is the drop in value for the lower tier cards that have significantly dropped in value since release. Let me say this, the prices will be a roller coaster across the entirety of the life of the product. It all has to do with the way investors and buyers engage across the spectrum of hits, the grading that will take place over the next 6-12 months, and the reduction of supply as people rip product and put cards into their PCs.
Lets start with the super premium cards, because those examples are the sexy investment pieces that are responsible for the giant wax price. Even though hitting one of these cards is a once in a lifetime situation for many collectors, its the driving force of why Prizm has become what it is. I wrote a retrospective leading up to the release that explains how this product found itself at the front of the line for new investors, and its worth checking out if you are new to this game. To put it simply, shiny cards are an asset that many investors build their collections around. In the vein of rookie cards, these people all love firsts in the hobby, and being that Prizm is a debut edition, they want to have the first example of the premium cards for all the top tier subjects.
This means that cards from guys like The Rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin, and Hulk Hogan will be more valuable this year than they will be any other year. Because comparative value for WWE versus investment pieces in the NBA and the NFL is tiny, these cards are low end for most. Looking into debut Prizm examples for people like Lebron James, Tom Brady, and others, a 15k price tag isnt even in the same zip code. The Rock is on that level for WWE, but his cards are chump change by comparison.
As you can expect, if everyone is ripping and ripping, chasing the big hits along side group breakers who are going through case after case of product, there is a lot of bulk that will flood the market. For the wax addicts, the goal becomes to recoup cost as quickly as possible, and the best way to do that is to list the cards auction style and hope for the best. Because Prizm WWE is a brand new market, the collecting base isnt large enough to sustain a huge number of auctions that all end in rapid succession. There are a few reasons for this.
With Topps products, the run was likely 1/3 to 1/4 of what the Hobby run is for Prizm. This means that the big hits happen with a lot less bulk in the checklist to flood the auction listings for bottom feeders, set builders and flippers. This is a huge contributing factor, because Prizm has the largest checklist that has ever been run in a WWE product. We are talking a gigantic difference in set size, and the amount of cards produced for all those unnumbered parallels. Its like comparing a house cat with a tiger in terms of size.
Similarly, all those people who usually feed off the underbelly of a product, collecting lower tier wrestlers, building sets, and generally hunting for deals are ripe with contempt for this new license. They are spurred by vocal influencers who have a vested interest in the product’s drop in price. For most of these people, being unfamiliar with the market has bred a sense of apathy, even though they can likely buy singles at or even below where they would have in previous Topps sets. All they need to do is open their eyes.
Many of these people have seen their ability to rip boxes hobby format reduced, and though the singles are easily attainable, most seem to have chosen to check out instead. Funny enough – NONE of this is a new concept. This has plagued Panini products since day one, and it wont be different for a small niche like WWE. If anything it will be more exacerbated.
Prepare for the Roller Coaster
Its time for me to put on my psychic friends network hat and offer some potential outcomes that might happen over the next year – all leading up to the second edition of Prizm in 2023. Many of the nay-sayers will point to fluctuating values on the secondary market as a measure of viability, which I can assure you it is not. This product is already a success to a vast degree. More people are talking about WWE cards in the hobby than ever. WWE cards were trending on Twitter as a result of the release, and the record prices are well above expectations already. Even if everything tanks to an ocean trench level, this has already done more for WWE than even I expected.
In terms of the record setting prices, those will likely continue as people try to chase down the rare cards for the top tier superstars. The 1/1s of the Rock, Hulk Hogan and others will likely set all time records each time they are sold, and that could happen multiple times after they are pulled. As for the golds /10, there will be huge sales to start, and then a dip as they get into the third and fourth copies sold. As the months progress, those prices will creep back up as the opportunities to buy decrease. Five years from now, the prices from today will look laughable in how inexpensive they were.
As more formats are put on shelves, the lower end of Prizm will drop to a very high degree. Panini has printed an absolute shit ton of this stuff already and retail is still on the way. There will be other options, including box sets, TMall, and any other formats Panini thinks the market can support. They dont make money on any of the secondary market sales, so they want to run the presses for as long as people will buy. Because the cards arent numbered, there is no available understanding of how many of each exist. Pop reports for grading companies can be an indicator of size comparisons to other products, but we will never know the actual number. This includes high value inserts like the Color Blasts.
From this point forward, I expect a few dips as each new format hits the scene, followed by a rise as more versions of the products come out in 2023 and beyond. Again, none of this is a surprise, as it happens every time Panini releases a debut edition.
I wholeheartedly encourage people to research before they buy, and see what the trajectory of these things looks like long term. Apps like CardLadder show a long chart of pricing trends for many of the bigger sets, and its easy to pick out the places to make money. Dont listen to the trolls, and definitely do your own homework. This is a landmark release regardless of what happens, and it wont be the last time either.