If there is one thing I have come to know, its that Baseball is a set collector’s sport. Whereas Basketball is almost 100% geared towards high end hits, and Football is geared towards high end rookies, Baseball and high end rarely work. Although there have been some successful campaigns, like with 2010 Ultimate Baseball, 2009 Prime Cuts, Triple Threads or even 2005 Absolute, many high end sets in baseball fall flat on their faces. The reason is that there is more value placed on prospect autos and first autographs than current stars. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols are three of the only guys whose autographs may consistently top 100 bucks. Outside of that, its Bryce Harper (not eligible for non-bowman releases yet) and Ichiro (leaf exclusive). If you are going to charge a ton of money per box, there has to be a reason to buy, and right now that isn’t possible in baseball.
The other part of the spectrum that carries value is old time HOFer cards, and those are very expensive to make and don’t carry as much value anymore. You have guys like Hank Aaron and Sandy Koufax who will still sign for Topps, but that is two people across the entire spectrum of players. You have a lot of guys like Ripken and Nolan Ryan that have some value, but even their cards don’t always break 100 bucks. So, that begs the question, without investing thousands upon thousands of dollars into a product, only to see it fail, how can you deliver something like Five Star or Exquisite?
Topps is trying to give baseball collectors a taste with Tier One, offering a slew of hard signed cards with a small 85 dollar per box price tag, and after seeing the previews they are putting on Twitter, Im impressed with the look. It cant be on the same level as a product that is released in Basketball or the NFL, but there aren’t enough players like Peterson, Brees, Manning, and company that consistently command a lot per card, in addition to a fresh crop of rookies who haven’t had cards before.
I wonder, if the cards are done right. Simple yet beautiful like many of the Exquisite cards used to be, could it have an effect like Ultimate did a few years back? I am not sure if its look or just general collectability that prevents a high end product from being successful in baseball, but maybe if there are more hard signed cards like what is going to be offered in Tier One, it’s a start. For every person that thinks Triple Threads is the “OMG SIZCKEST!!!11!” set ever, there is one like me who despise its concept and design. Five Star had universal good reviews on its design, and if it had the checklist to back it up, it may have been the best in history.
Leaf also has created an unusual situation with its signing of Ichiro to an unprecedented autograph contract, as many international and stateside collectors alike will be clamoring for his first autos in YEARS. If someone could gain access to all the Upper Deck exclusives, guys like Ichiro, and all the current guys, it may be possible to put something crazy awesome together. Because that will most likely never be possible, we may never have a shot at a true Exquisite style baseball product. Its unfortunate, because I absolutely LOVE cards like this 2006 Exquisite patch auto card.
Ah…finally…a non-football post!
I think the simple answer to this question is “no”. The bigger question is why. Here’s my stab at an answer…
To start with, I think you have to consider demographics. Baseball is the oldest and most established of the major sports, and I think many baseball card collectors (such as myself) are significantly older than those who collect modern “high-end”. Likewise, I’d hazard a guess that many baseball card collectors have been collecting much longer than modern “high-end” collectors, to the extent that many baseball card collectors started collecting pre-Upper Deck (i.e. before 1989), when there were no inserts/relics/autos/parallels. Heck, many of today’s baseball card collectors probably started collecting before Beckett even existed, when nobody really knew what anything was worth. In short, we never got into the whole
“chase the hot/temporarily very valuable rare/scarce card” scene. We’ve seen hundreds of “hot” rookies come and go, and know that 99% of these guys will be in the $1 commons bin in five years. We know that it’s a lot more likely that Steven Strasburg ends up being the next Dwight Gooden, Ben McDonald, or Mark Prior, than he ends up being the next Sandy Koufax or Nolan Ryan, so we don’t get caught up in the hype to start with (see your previous post re: Curtis Painter).
My second point would be that baseball already has “high-end” cards…they’re just 50 years old instead of two months. Nice condition vintage cards (i.e. NM or better) are just as scarce as modern “high-end” cards, and form a significant part of the budget of virtually every baseball card collector I know. Combine this with the fact that there are also quite a few very scarce Topps test issues from the 60’s/70’s as well as pre-war cards, food, and regional issues, and I would argue that there is a lot more competition for each dollar of spending among baseball card collectors. Likewise, because because baseball cards have been around a lot longer, baseball’s stars have been signing autographs for much longer than other than the stars of other sports, thus reducing demand for much of what consititutes modern “high-end”. You can get auto’s of players like Musial, Banks, Feller, Berra, Gibson, Snider, etc. on Ebay for under $25, and even Koufax/Mays/Aaron level autos are easy to find for under $75. Among post-war players, only Clemente, Campanella, Jackie Robinson autos go for over $200, with Williams, Mantle, and DiMaggio autos not difficult to find in the $100-200 range. And since dollar that is spent on high-end vintage cards is a dollar that isn’t available to be spent on modern “high-end” cards, there just isn’t enough economic demand from baseball card collectors to enable a modern “high-end” set, whatever it might constitute, to be successful. Our hobby $$$ are already being spent elsewhere.
Interesting post Gellman, and I think both you and the previous commenter are right, but I’m surprised that you didn’t bring up one aspect of high-end baseball that is consistently missing the mark. It’s not just about “content”, it’s about design.
As a bit of background, I’m primarily a baseball team collector (Rangers). When I buy wax, it’s primarily low to mid end products, and basically no high end. If I want a high-end piece, I buy singles. I’m a fairly prototypical baseball collector.
That said, I’ve purchased two boxes (about to buy a third) of Inception. It’s my first (and likely only) high end football purchase, and I bought it because of the design. Honestly, I have never had a more satisfying box break in my card collecting life. The “hits” were interesting, but every single card in that set oozes visual appeal. I actually just sit and stare at those cards sometimes because they look so good.
I’m convinced that if Topps put together a high-end baseball products that LOOKED as good as Inception, then folks would buy the hell out of it, regardless of content.
Tier one looks promising, and I’m considering stashing some card cash away to pick up a box or two, but I’m going to wait until folks get it in hand and I can see what it looks like in person.
There is a way, and it was discusses years ago but if baseball had a rookie photo shoot ala Football, Hockey and basketball and you had rookie auto patch signatures (large patch like Exquisite) of guys like Harper, Strasburg ect… and a nice mix of Legends with strategic designs, themes and low numbering mized with some quality cut signatures….it could work
Wouldnt a lot of that depend on licensing and inclusion clauses for players not on 45 man rosters?
I would agree that design is paramount to baseball card collectors. With so much to choose from, both modern and vintage, if it doesn’t look good, we generally don’t collect it. This is why Topps Heritage has been so popular, although it will be interest to see what happens in a few years once they hit the 1968-1973 dry spell of mediocre designs.
Given that design is almost an afterthought with most current card releases, is it any wonder that most baseball card collectors find them to be rather uncompelling?
“My second point would be that baseball already has “high-end” cards…they’re just 50 years old instead of two months. Nice condition vintage cards (i.e. NM or better) are just as scarce as modern “high-end” cards, and form a significant part of the budget of virtually every baseball card collector I know.”
Great points. Also, vintage baseball that is graded NM or better is “high-end” that will STAY high-end. One of the main reasons I invest in PSA graded vintage cards from the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s. I can always turn around and sell those cards for what I paid, unlike something I pull out of Triple Threads or Ultimate Baseball. I mean, look at Jason Heyward’s cards right now. You can get a really nice rookie of him now for 1/3 to 1/2 of what you would have paid for it over a year ago. The same cannot be said for a 1955 Topps Sandy Koufax rookie graded a 7 or better.
I was hoping Topps was going to do a “5 Star” set for baseball. I guess that was a rumor or I just dreamed that.